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Maple Leafs GM Dave Nonis has his work cut out for him

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Old
05-26-2013, 02:34 PM
  #301
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Originally Posted by eyeball11 View Post
So to summarize, you are just going to completely dodge your comments about offensive production.

Understood.

If I were Leaf management I would pray for you to be negotiating on Tyler's behalf.
I didn't mention anything about offensive production you did, other than I pointed out he outproduced the comparable reference contract last season. Unless you want to debate that Bozak didn't outscore Grabovski last season.

If I were in Nonis position I would let Bozak walk for the money he is requesting because as I pointed out earlier "two wrongs don't make a right".. One bad contract in Grabovski shouldn't force Nonis into another one with Bozak.

Just because Bozak is Leafs #1 center by default by Leafs having nothing better, doesn't mean he is worth being paid as one.. I'm sure Nonis is fully aware of that situation and "in Nonis we trust" to do the right thing, and not hurt the Leafs further, and not let mistakes of the past govern good decisions going forward.

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05-26-2013, 02:39 PM
  #302
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I didn't mention anything about offensive production you did,
yes you did.

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Bozak produces more offense

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05-26-2013, 02:44 PM
  #303
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I think people underestimate how much Bozak would get on the open market. UFAs who have value always go for a lot more than they are worth--it's just a matter of supply and demand.

I don't know if Bozak will get $5.5 million, but I'd be surprised if he gets less than $5 million. There are lots of teams that could use a centre with Bozak's skill set, and when he's available to the highest bidder, you have to overpay to get him.

It's the same reason people thinking the Leafs are going to get Clarkson for $4 million or less need to give their heads a shake.

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05-26-2013, 02:46 PM
  #304
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IDK, i can't think of many SC winners that did not have 2 Cs that played at, well above average to star quality hockey.

The ones that come to mind had other things that we have no hope of having on the roster, like top 5 all time tenders in Roy and Brod or top 10 all time D men like Lids,Nieds,Prong.

How many of these SC winners , that had lets say ,questionble depth at C past their 1 star ,had a Selke caliber 2nd, 3rd line c?

Madden, Muller,Draper,Brind'Amour,Lehtinen,Carbonneau, to name a few.
We're a young team, I can see Grabovski develop into a two-way 60pt guy. If we want a shut down line with Madden-like talent, we're going to have to do it via draft. The probability of centres being moved is low.

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05-26-2013, 02:48 PM
  #305
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I didn't mention anything about offensive production you did, other than I pointed out he outproduced the comparable reference contract last season. Unless you want to debate that Bozak didn't outscore Grabovski last season.

If I were in Nonis position I would let Bozak walk for the money he is requesting because as I pointed out earlier "two wrongs don't make a right".. One bad contract in Grabovski shouldn't force Nonis into another one with Bozak.

Just because Bozak is Leafs #1 center by default by Leafs having nothing better, doesn't mean he is worth being paid as one.. I'm sure Nonis is fully aware of that situation and "in Nonis we trust" to do the right thing, and not hurt the Leafs further, and not let mistakes of the past govern good decisions going forward.
I don't even think the Grabovski contract has anything to do with it (other than that Bozak's agent may use Grabo and his contract as a reference point).

The way I see it, there are only two ways Bozak re-signs here: 1) he decides he wants to stay with this team more than he wants a big payday; 2) Nonis sees him as a legit top 6 centre and intends to move Grabovski.

Doesn't sound like either of those scenarios are going to play out, so it looks like Bozak is done in Toronto. Can't really blame either side.

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05-26-2013, 02:55 PM
  #306
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
yes you did.
Here is a link to Leafs player stats from the 2012-13 season. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/statisti...hl-maple_leafs

Bozak produced 12 goals 16 assists 28 points and Grabovski produced 9 goals 7 assists and 16 points.

Therefore Bozak produced more offense. Not sure were the confusion or debate is over my statement being inaccurate.

If Bozak were to continue to be employed as Leafs #1 center and play on the 1st PP unit he is likely to continue to outproduce Grabovski in the future.

If a player is playing ahead of on the depth chart and producing more than his own teammate then he is going to demand >= money is my theory.. Based on recent reports Bozak asking price is north of $5 mil and Grabovski is making $5.5 mil presently, so it appears to be supported in this case, that he is asking for similar $$.

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05-26-2013, 03:02 PM
  #307
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I don't even think the Grabovski contract has anything to do with it (other than that Bozak's agent may use Grabo and his contract as a reference point).
That is my point exactly that Grabovski's contract is providing Bozak's agent leverage in the contract negotiations for his client.

We all know Grabovski is overpaid and was given a bad contract, but that doesn't help Nonis in this situation, when dealing with Bozak, it hurts in fact.

In the best interest of the team Nonis should not cave to Bozak's demands, and either Tyler accepts a lower contract to stay or Nonis lets him walk.

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05-26-2013, 03:03 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Here is a link to Leafs player stats from the 2012-13 season. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/statisti...hl-maple_leafs

Bozak produced 12 goals 16 assists 28 points and Grabovski produced 9 goals 7 assists and 16 points.

Therefore Bozak produced more offense. Not sure were the confusion or debate is over my statement being inaccurate.

If Bozak were to continue to be employed as Leafs #1 center and play on the 1st PP unit he is likely to continue to outproduce Grabovski in the future.

If a player is playing ahead of on the depth chart and producing more than his own teammate then he is going to demand >= money is my theory.. Based on recent reports Bozak asking price is north of $5 mil and Grabovski is making $5.5 mil presently, so it appears to be supported in this case, that he is asking for similar $$.
These are outlandish assumptions. Bozak was getting 21mins a game and tons of PP time between Kessel/Lupul and JVR. Why don't we just settle down here and actually try different things before we get crazy with the cheese whiz.

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05-26-2013, 04:00 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Brown Dog View Post
I don't even think the Grabovski contract has anything to do with it (other than that Bozak's agent may use Grabo and his contract as a reference point).

The way I see it, there are only two ways Bozak re-signs here: 1) he decides he wants to stay with this team more than he wants a big payday; 2) Nonis sees him as a legit top 6 centre and intends to move Grabovski.

Doesn't sound like either of those scenarios are going to play out, so it looks like Bozak is done in Toronto. Can't really blame either side.
Yes since Grabo's deal was based on his performance the three years before, which was clearly better than Bozak, and with vastly inferior linemates, and in a higher cap envirnment. However, of the 50 point top 6 forwards out there, are there any recent deals for under $4 million? I don't think so, so this is going to be his baseline. The club will say yes, but he was the gooseberry with the real talent doing driving the scoring, and his agent will respond with pointing out the PK, the FO, all the backchecking he must be doing since he ins't handling the puck etc.

An arbitrator would have to award him over $4 million because they look at all that, and not whether he actually performs the key element of being a #1 C. The market, not so much, and the scoring histories of the other FA centers are going to push his opportunities down. My guess is, around $3.75 million if he moves, and closer to $3 million if he stays. There are a dozen teams he could end up at, but none where he would be a #1.

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05-26-2013, 04:08 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by nuck View Post
Yes since Grabo's deal was based on his performance the three years before, which was clearly better than Bozak, and with vastly inferior linemates, and in a higher cap envirnment. However, of the 50 point top 6 forwards out there, are there any recent deals for under $4 million? I don't think so, so this is going to be his baseline. The club will say yes, but he was the gooseberry with the real talent doing driving the scoring, and his agent will respond with pointing out the PK, the FO, all the backchecking he must be doing since he ins't handling the puck etc.

An arbitrator would have to award him over $4 million because they look at all that, and not whether he actually performs the key element of being a #1 C. The market, not so much, and the scoring histories of the other FA centers are going to push his opportunities down. My guess is, around $3.75 million if he moves, and closer to $3 million if he stays. There are a dozen teams he could end up at, but none where he would be a #1.
I would say Bozak is a go at 3.5, maybe 3.75 here because of futures. Futures being he could bring back a pick or prospect if signed where as if we let him go we get nothing at all. His wanting 4-5.5 prices him out of future trades and leaves us in a potential bind if he slumps, is moved to third line and doesn't perform etc.

It's the difference of asset and liability pretty much.

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05-26-2013, 05:04 PM
  #311
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I would say Bozak is a go at 3.5, maybe 3.75 here because of futures. Futures being he could bring back a pick or prospect if signed where as if we let him go we get nothing at all. His wanting 4-5.5 prices him out of future trades and leaves us in a potential bind if he slumps, is moved to third line and doesn't perform etc.

It's the difference of asset and liability pretty much.
I like the way you think. Build up assets, not liabilities when signing players...but easier said than done of course

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05-26-2013, 05:18 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Brown Dog View Post
I think people underestimate how much Bozak would get on the open market. UFAs who have value always go for a lot more than they are worth--it's just a matter of supply and demand.

I don't know if Bozak will get $5.5 million, but I'd be surprised if he gets less than $5 million. There are lots of teams that could use a centre with Bozak's skill set, and when he's available to the highest bidder, you have to overpay to get him.

It's the same reason people thinking the Leafs are going to get Clarkson for $4 million or less need to give their heads a shake.
then dont sign either... we dont need either so why should we overpay? if we can get them for cheap id sign them but no thanks if they want anywhere upwards of 5 mill (and even 4 mill really imo)

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05-26-2013, 05:30 PM
  #313
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I didn't mention anything about offensive production you did, other than I pointed out he outproduced the comparable reference contract last season. Unless you want to debate that Bozak didn't outscore Grabovski last season.

If I were in Nonis position I would let Bozak walk for the money he is requesting because as I pointed out earlier "two wrongs don't make a right".. One bad contract in Grabovski shouldn't force Nonis into another one with Bozak.

Just because Bozak is Leafs #1 center by default by Leafs having nothing better, doesn't mean he is worth being paid as one.. I'm sure Nonis is fully aware of that situation and "in Nonis we trust" to do the right thing, and not hurt the Leafs further, and not let mistakes of the past govern good decisions going forward.
Huh. Guess I imagined this:

"Grabovski was awarded a $5.5 mil contract last summer and Leafs were willing to pay that amount for his contributions, when he was in a similar contract negotiation.

Bozak produces more offense"

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05-26-2013, 05:35 PM
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I like the way you think. Build up assets, not liabilities when signing players...but easier said than done of course
It's the only way to build a contender though. We have lots of assets right now, Grabo and Komisarek and maybe Dion are our worst contracts which is pretty good overall.

Dion +1m over
Grabs +1m over
Komisarek +4.5m (though he may have been useful if not for his outburst)
Tucker 1m
Armstrong 1m

That's actually exceptional for a hockey team overall, ditch Komi. Bozak would add 2m over @5m, then you are looking at 6m+ in waste and that translates into a top 2 D upgrade which we need.

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05-26-2013, 05:56 PM
  #315
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Originally Posted by eyeball11 View Post
Huh. Guess I imagined this:

"Grabovski was awarded a $5.5 mil contract last summer and Leafs were willing to pay that amount for his contributions, when he was in a similar contract negotiation.

Bozak produces more offense"
Similar in being the team highest scoring center, heading into free agency, as last year Bozak produced more offense then Grabovski.

Back when Grabovski negotiated his deal he was the leading scoring center at the time.

This year Bozak plays on the #1 line, the #1 PP, the best FO man better +/- and produced more offense than Grabovski.

If he was brought back would you expect him to play ahead of or behind Grabovski on the depth chart? So since he is better than Grabovski in every aspect that is considered when awarding contacts, should Bozak ask for more or less $$ than Grabovski received in comparison?.

The Grabovski contract is a measuring stick because its a part of the Leafs internal salary structure.

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05-26-2013, 06:13 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Here is a link to Leafs player stats from the 2012-13 season. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/statisti...hl-maple_leafs

Bozak produced 12 goals 16 assists 28 points and Grabovski produced 9 goals 7 assists and 16 points.

Therefore Bozak produced more offense. Not sure were the confusion or debate is over my statement being inaccurate.

If Bozak were to continue to be employed as Leafs #1 center and play on the 1st PP unit he is likely to continue to outproduce Grabovski in the future.

If a player is playing ahead of on the depth chart and producing more than his own teammate then he is going to demand >= money is my theory.. Based on recent reports Bozak asking price is north of $5 mil and Grabovski is making $5.5 mil presently, so it appears to be supported in this case, that he is asking for similar $$.
what grabovski did this year is irrelevant to the contract he signed last year.

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05-26-2013, 06:14 PM
  #317
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Similar in being the team highest scoring center, heading into free agency, as last year Bozak produced more offense then Grabovski.

Back when Grabovski negotiated his deal he was the leading scoring center at the time.
Boak is not the team's highest scoring center.

kadri is.

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05-26-2013, 06:22 PM
  #318
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then dont sign either... we dont need either so why should we overpay? if we can get them for cheap id sign them but no thanks if they want anywhere upwards of 5 mill (and even 4 mill really imo)
That's what I expect will happen (unless Nonis relaly thinks Clarkson is crucial).

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05-26-2013, 06:39 PM
  #319
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Similar in being the team highest scoring center, heading into free agency, as last year Bozak produced more offense then Grabovski.

Back when Grabovski negotiated his deal he was the leading scoring center at the time.

This year Bozak plays on the #1 line, the #1 PP, the best FO man better +/- and produced more offense than Grabovski.

If he was brought back would you expect him to play ahead of or behind Grabovski on the depth chart? So since he is better than Grabovski in every aspect that is considered when awarding contacts, should Bozak ask for more or less $$ than Grabovski received in comparison?.

The Grabovski contract is a measuring stick because its a part of the Leafs internal salary structure.
You're just making me wish more and more that it was you negotiating on Bozak's behalf. I don't think it would take long to whittle your worth to $3.5 at all.

For starters, Grabovski's contract represented 7.8% of the cap, so right off the bat Mr. Bozak, you are down to $5.01 M.

Next up, Grabovski was awarded that contract on a 29 goal 58 point season (prorates to 59 points) and to that point in time had three 20+ goal seasons, of which Mr. Bozak you have had none. Zip. Zilch. Nada. In fact your best season to date beats only Grabovski's worst. Still, I'll be kind and go with your prorated totals for this year. Now you're down to $4.1M (based on % value for scoring vs Grabovski).

Faceoffs you say? Well it seems when I needed you most you were my 4th most productive faceoff man, behind even Grabovski.

Then we start analyzing what players you played with and what that does or does not inflate.

Sure, go ahead and compare yourself. I'm all in.

Where would I play you? 3rd line (though even then I'd rather reserve that for prospects).

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05-26-2013, 07:07 PM
  #320
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Similar in being the team highest scoring center, heading into free agency, as last year Bozak produced more offense then Grabovski.

Back when Grabovski negotiated his deal he was the leading scoring center at the time.

This year Bozak plays on the #1 line, the #1 PP, the best FO man better +/- and produced more offense than Grabovski.

If he was brought back would you expect him to play ahead of or behind Grabovski on the depth chart? So since he is better than Grabovski in every aspect that is considered when awarding contacts, should Bozak ask for more or less $$ than Grabovski received in comparison?.

The Grabovski contract is a measuring stick because its a part of the Leafs internal salary structure.
for some reason i got a feeling both wont be on this team starting 2013-2014 season.

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05-26-2013, 07:11 PM
  #321
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
Boak is not the team's highest scoring center.

kadri is.
Tyler Bozak < Radek Bonk

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05-26-2013, 07:28 PM
  #322
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for some reason i got a feeling both wont be on this team starting 2013-2014 season.
That's entirely possible because with Kadri developing and Leafs searching for a #1 center upgrade that could make both Grabs and Bozak redundant and expendable.

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05-26-2013, 07:43 PM
  #323
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That's entirely possible because with Kadri developing and Leafs searching for a #1 center upgrade that could make both Grabs and Bozak redundant and expendable.
1) O'Reilly/Ribeiro
2) Kadri
3) McClement
4) Colborne

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05-26-2013, 09:02 PM
  #324
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It's the only way to build a contender though. We have lots of assets right now, Grabo and Komisarek and maybe Dion are our worst contracts which is pretty good overall.

Dion +1m over
Grabs +1m overKomisarek +4.5m (though he may have been useful if not for his outburst)
Tucker 1m
Armstrong 1m

That's actually exceptional for a hockey team overall, ditch Komi. Bozak would add 2m over @5m, then you are looking at 6m+ in waste and that translates into a top 2 D upgrade which we need.
The way grabo is playing he is at least 2.5M+
Third line center for what he brings to the table should get no more than 3M at most.


My two cents

1. If Bozak wants 4-5M then he is gone.
2. Nonis will replace him with someone through FA or trade.
3. If #2 happens then Grabo will be given next year to improve his play and if not he will be traded or bought out. Cant have another year like the last one with no offense at 5.5M

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05-26-2013, 09:05 PM
  #325
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1) O'Reilly/Ribeiro
2) Kadri
3) McClement
4) Colborne
I like your thoughts but O'reilly cant be traded until after next year.

When colorado matched they can't trade him for a year and that date I believe is
after next years trade deadline. So they are stuck with him for the whole year.

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