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2013 NHL Draft Thread III (6/30, 3PM EDT)

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Old
05-25-2013, 08:38 PM
  #401
RDriesenUD
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Originally Posted by major major View Post
I've noticed on the trade boards a lot of Oiler fans would rather trade down for guys like Lazar and Gauthier if Monahan is gone by 7. If Lindholm is available there would we want to do the 14th and 18th for the 7th?
I don't think I would do that and I really like Lindholm.

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05-25-2013, 09:00 PM
  #402
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The two guys I am hoping for are Domi or Shinkaruk. I would be alright to trade up with Edmonton and give up either ours or the Rangers pick and Nikitin and or Savard.

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05-25-2013, 09:07 PM
  #403
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I don't think I would do that and I really like Lindholm.
Do it

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05-25-2013, 09:29 PM
  #404
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Do it
I would trade up to get him, but not for that deal. That is too much to give up to move up 7 spots, IMO.

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05-25-2013, 09:31 PM
  #405
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Originally Posted by RDriesenUD View Post
I would trade up to get him, but not for that deal. That is too much to give up to move up 7 spots, IMO.
Agreed ...

Though with what I read yesterday about what they are looking for, I think we would have to overpay or make a blockbuster deal to make it happen.

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05-25-2013, 11:27 PM
  #406
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Drouin, Jones honored

Jonathan Drouin wins CHL player of the year with 105 points in 45 games and Seth Jones is named CHL Top Prospect at today's annual CHL awards ceremony.

http://www.whl.ca/article/whl-player...-13-chl-awards

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05-26-2013, 08:19 AM
  #407
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Originally Posted by RDriesenUD View Post
I would trade up to get him, but not for that deal. That is too much to give up to move up 7 spots, IMO.
All depends on Lindholm's ability I guess. Would you do it for the 14th and LA's pick?
To me the difference between the 18th and the 22-30 slot is not that great, right?

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05-26-2013, 08:39 AM
  #408
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All depends on Lindholm's ability I guess. Would you do it for the 14th and LA's pick?
To me the difference between the 18th and the 22-30 slot is not that great, right?
Maybe. I would rather do it for a player. Also, I think the difference between the 18th and the 27th-30th (likely where LA's pick will be) is quite big.

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05-26-2013, 09:06 AM
  #409
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Under the radar guy? Zach Nastasiuk?

He's gone from being ranked 33rd NA skater by Central Scouting (mid-season) to 13th. 6' 1" 190 RW

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...tasiuk-canada/

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jrh...151209152.html

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05-26-2013, 03:01 PM
  #410
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Anyone got any info on Justin Bailey, is he someone we could target with our second round pick?

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05-26-2013, 03:21 PM
  #411
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Was lamenting the inevitable that the Kings would make the Western Conference Final and drop the pick down to 27, 29 or 30. However, I noted this in the NHL Operations guide....

Entry Draft Order
The order of selection among the Member Clubs in each season shall be determined in the following manner:
A composite of all Member Clubs shall be prepared by placing:
i) First the Clubs which failed to qualify for the preceding playoffs in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest points total and followed by the Club having the next lowest points total, and so forth.
ii) The Clubs which participated in the preceding playoffs (but had not been ranked first in their respective Divisions and had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iii) The Clubs which had been ranked first in their Divisions during the next preceding season (but had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iv) The Stanley Cup winner shall select last, thus, positioning all Clubs on the list.

In the event of a tie for any position, such tie shall be resolved by application of the rules governing the determination of final League standings. The resulting list shall constitute the order of selection.


If I read that correctly, ONLY the SCF participants drop in the draft meaning even if the Kings win this series, they could lose in the WCF and the CBJ would pick 22nd overall (or 21st if it were Detroit that beats the Kings).

All is not lost on keeping three picks in the top 22 of this draft. Higher value....

Anyone read this differently?

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05-26-2013, 03:40 PM
  #412
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xoggz22 View Post
Was lamenting the inevitable that the Kings would make the Western Conference Final and drop the pick down to 27, 29 or 30. However, I noted this in the NHL Operations guide....

Entry Draft Order
The order of selection among the Member Clubs in each season shall be determined in the following manner:
A composite of all Member Clubs shall be prepared by placing:
i) First the Clubs which failed to qualify for the preceding playoffs in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest points total and followed by the Club having the next lowest points total, and so forth.
ii) The Clubs which participated in the preceding playoffs (but had not been ranked first in their respective Divisions and had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iii) The Clubs which had been ranked first in their Divisions during the next preceding season (but had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iv) The Stanley Cup winner shall select last, thus, positioning all Clubs on the list.

In the event of a tie for any position, such tie shall be resolved by application of the rules governing the determination of final League standings. The resulting list shall constitute the order of selection.


If I read that correctly, ONLY the SCF participants drop in the draft meaning even if the Kings win this series, they could lose in the WCF and the CBJ would pick 22nd overall (or 21st if it were Detroit that beats the Kings).

All is not lost on keeping three picks in the top 22 of this draft. Higher value....

Anyone read this differently?
No, if they reach WCF they pick at least 27th. Unless they have changed that rule but haven't seen any mention of it.

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05-26-2013, 04:02 PM
  #413
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I've got a question for those of you who have been draft-obsessed and scouts long before this year. (This is my first year following the draft.)

I did a quick bit of research the other day on Desjardins' equivalencies for forwards taken in the 4-6 slots in the last 16 years. Here were the top projections of the more than 30 forwards I found:

Sam Gagner, 55 points.
Pavel Brendl, 48 points.
Derick Brassard, 45 points.
Ryan Strome, 40 points.
Nikolai Zherdev, 40 points.
Thomas Vanek, 37 points.
Daniel Tkaczuk, 37 points.
Tim Connolly, 36 points.
Stephen Weiss, 35 points.
Phil Kessel, 35 points.
Raffi Torres, 33 points.

What were the scouting reports like on the top players compared to the reports on guys like Barkov and Lindholm (both project 40 points). I ask because there's nothing spectacular about the NHL play of the top-5 players on this list. And did scouts have a good sense of players shortcomings, is that why Gagner and Brendl weren't drafted higher despite their insane production in juniors?

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05-26-2013, 04:28 PM
  #414
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No, if they reach WCF they pick at least 27th. Unless they have changed that rule but haven't seen any mention of it.
This was from the lastest CBA/agreement. I don't see any mention of WCF or ECF affecting the draft order. I know it used to but....

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Old
05-26-2013, 04:32 PM
  #415
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if LA wins tonight, their pick turns into the 27th, 29th or 30th...it cannot be 28th due to records...came off Rob Mixer's twitter earlier....

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05-26-2013, 07:26 PM
  #416
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Originally Posted by major major View Post
I've got a question for those of you who have been draft-obsessed and scouts long before this year. (This is my first year following the draft.)

I did a quick bit of research the other day on Desjardins' equivalencies for forwards taken in the 4-6 slots in the last 16 years. Here were the top projections of the more than 30 forwards I found:

Sam Gagner, 55 points.
Pavel Brendl, 48 points.
Derick Brassard, 45 points.
Ryan Strome, 40 points.
Nikolai Zherdev, 40 points.
Thomas Vanek, 37 points.
Daniel Tkaczuk, 37 points.
Tim Connolly, 36 points.
Stephen Weiss, 35 points.
Phil Kessel, 35 points.
Raffi Torres, 33 points.

What were the scouting reports like on the top players compared to the reports on guys like Barkov and Lindholm (both project 40 points). I ask because there's nothing spectacular about the NHL play of the top-5 players on this list. And did scouts have a good sense of players shortcomings, is that why Gagner and Brendl weren't drafted higher despite their insane production in juniors?
Cannot stand projections like this ... here's why:

Scoring is up as a whole since most of these players were drafted. Every season in the CHL is different, and also in the European leagues. It all comes down to who the top teams are and what the general dominant playstyle is in the league. It doesn't matter what people "project" based on statistics ... every player is different. Lindholm, Monahan, and Barkov are "projected" to go in the 4-6 range this year ... and I wouldn't put any of them on a list of potential dominant offensive players. All "project" as potential first line centers, but with likely upsides being very good second line centers. Lindholm and Barkov having the higher upside, with at best being 70-80 point players. Pavel Brendl, for example, scored 73 goals and 134 points in his draft year ... I think his upside was that of a first line wing ... but in reality, the league was just a higher scoring league that year. He never repeated those numbers again, not even close.

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05-26-2013, 07:53 PM
  #417
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What a shot by MacKinnon on that second Halifax goal. Popped the water bottle from hitting the lower half of the net ... insane. Nobody will convince me that Drouin is a better player at this point, and he's been pretty darn good also. MacKinnon is just so strong.

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05-26-2013, 10:10 PM
  #418
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5 Helpers for Drouin with under 10 to go in the third. MacKinnon with 2+2 ... talk about big game players. Seth Jones has been good also, but that top line for Halifax is just not fair.

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05-26-2013, 11:07 PM
  #419
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Cannot stand projections like this ... here's why:

Scoring is up as a whole since most of these players were drafted. Every season in the CHL is different, and also in the European leagues. It all comes down to who the top teams are and what the general dominant playstyle is in the league. It doesn't matter what people "project" based on statistics ... every player is different. Lindholm, Monahan, and Barkov are "projected" to go in the 4-6 range this year ... and I wouldn't put any of them on a list of potential dominant offensive players. All "project" as potential first line centers, but with likely upsides being very good second line centers. Lindholm and Barkov having the higher upside, with at best being 70-80 point players. Pavel Brendl, for example, scored 73 goals and 134 points in his draft year ... I think his upside was that of a first line wing ... but in reality, the league was just a higher scoring league that year. He never repeated those numbers again, not even close.
Yeah the projections are obviously not that predictive. If the problem is team to team or year to year variation in scoring, however, then we can build a model to strip out that variation. My guess is that would help some, but a substantial part of the reason Desjardins equivalencies aren't more predictive is that the qualities that lend to dominance at the junior level are different from those that lend to success at the NHL level. That and different body types maturing at different rates, etc..etc.. So I guess we need... scouts.

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05-26-2013, 11:11 PM
  #420
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What a shot by MacKinnon on that second Halifax goal. Popped the water bottle from hitting the lower half of the net ... insane. Nobody will convince me that Drouin is a better player at this point, and he's been pretty darn good also. MacKinnon is just so strong.
And a hatty for Mack. Does this make me less of a heretic for pushing the Murray for Mack idea?

(With this performance, I don't think any team, except maybe Colorado, is going to pass on or trade the possibility of picking Mackinnon.)


Last edited by major major: 05-26-2013 at 11:26 PM.
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05-27-2013, 12:23 AM
  #421
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And a hatty for Mack. Does this make me less of a heretic for pushing the Murray for Mack idea?
Nope. You don't win by trading away players like Ryan Murray ... particularly not before he steps on the ice. I told you before that I was done with this discussion, and I stand pat.

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05-27-2013, 10:39 AM
  #422
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5 Helpers for Drouin with under 10 to go in the third. MacKinnon with 2+2 ... talk about big game players. Seth Jones has been good also, but that top line for Halifax is just not fair.
Conversation from last night.

(Halifax scores)
Mrs. Bee: Um, what are you doing?
Me: Did you see that?
Mrs. Bee: Yes, I did. Why are you standing up and just swaying from side to side with your mouth hanging open?
Me: I 'unno, it was a great play by...I think that was Drouin. I can't read the numbers.
Mrs. Bee: You look like that guy on every NBA bench. Someone on his team dunks, and he jumps up and just stands there, swaying and slowly shaking his head.

It was Drouin, by the way. And apparently my reaction was exactly the same as Martin Frk on his goal.

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05-27-2013, 10:57 AM
  #423
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Here's my sense of the Memorial Cup week as it relates to NHL draft rankings for Jones, MacKinnon and Drouin:
Quote:
Pre-Memorial Cup, significant majority of scouts (say 6 of 10) I talk to had Jones at No. 1 but some had MacKinnon or Drouin 1st (two each).
Quote:
Post-Memorial Cup, one scout who had Jones No. 1 switched to MacKinnon and two others wanted to "think about it" some more.
Quote:
Misleading thing about title of consenus No. 1 is even if 9 of 10 scouts pick same guy, gap between No. 1 and 2 and 3 this year is tiny.
Quote:
Some scouts have Drouin ahead of MacKinnon, and vice vera obviously, and I know at least one who has Aleksander Barkov ahead of both of them

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05-27-2013, 11:07 AM
  #424
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Originally Posted by Xoggz22 View Post
Was lamenting the inevitable that the Kings would make the Western Conference Final and drop the pick down to 27, 29 or 30. However, I noted this in the NHL Operations guide....

Entry Draft Order
The order of selection among the Member Clubs in each season shall be determined in the following manner:
A composite of all Member Clubs shall be prepared by placing:
i) First the Clubs which failed to qualify for the preceding playoffs in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest points total and followed by the Club having the next lowest points total, and so forth.
ii) The Clubs which participated in the preceding playoffs (but had not been ranked first in their respective Divisions and had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iii) The Clubs which had been ranked first in their Divisions during the next preceding season (but had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iv) The Stanley Cup winner shall select last, thus, positioning all Clubs on the list.

In the event of a tie for any position, such tie shall be resolved by application of the rules governing the determination of final League standings. The resulting list shall constitute the order of selection.


If I read that correctly, ONLY the SCF participants drop in the draft meaning even if the Kings win this series, they could lose in the WCF and the CBJ would pick 22nd overall (or 21st if it were Detroit that beats the Kings).

All is not lost on keeping three picks in the top 22 of this draft. Higher value....

Anyone read this differently?
I have read this several times and i agree with you. However, I can't find anything anywhere that says it is right. All say the last four standing pick 27-30.

Where did you find the Guide? Link?

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05-27-2013, 02:08 PM
  #425
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I have read this several times and i agree with you. However, I can't find anything anywhere that says it is right. All say the last four standing pick 27-30.

Where did you find the Guide? Link?
Oddly enough it was in a comment on Puck Rakers (yeah, usually just junk, I know). It was an NHL.com link. I'm on my phone and can't get to it but it was in the latest blog.

I don't know what to believe. I do know that just about every publicized draft has the order wrong because most don't remember to incorporate the division winners ahead of the other rank and file teams (ie. Kings #23 where as that should be the Caps and the Kings pick #22)

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