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Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread 2012-13 (Part IV)

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05-27-2013, 02:33 PM
  #726
Flair Hay
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Call me crazy but I am not so sure that we have seen the last of the Byfuglien at forward experiment. If Trouba really is the defenseman we think he is sooner than later and we have to move someone, I would much rather have Buff playing RW than another second tier top six RW + futures we'd be likely to get back in a trade.

If he outright refuses then our hands will be tied no doubt.

Just after watching the impact Burns has had for SJ when a similar "good problem" arose, I won't rule out Buff at forward until I know 100% it's not an option. The monster players with skill are always worth their weight in gold come playoff time.

Dear training staff, get Buff skinny again plz, thanks!

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05-27-2013, 02:36 PM
  #727
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Originally Posted by bhay1987 View Post
Call me crazy but I am not so sure that we have seen the last of the Byfuglien at forward experiment. If Trouba really is the defenseman we think he is sooner than later and we have to move someone, I would much rather have Buff playing RW than another second tier top six RW + futures we'd be likely to get back in a trade.

If he outright refuses then our hands will be tied no doubt.

Just after watching the impact Burns has had for SJ when a similar "good problem" arose, I won't rule out Buff at forward until I know 100% it's not an option. The monster players with skill are always worth their weight in gold come playoff time.

Dear training staff, get Buff skinny again plz, thanks!
Why?

Buff himself is no more than a 2nd tier RW. He was never special at that position outside of a playoff series or two.

*EDIT*

I'd rather nab a young C/RW who has some upside than slap a top pairing D man into a role that doesn't suit him.


Last edited by truck: 05-27-2013 at 02:46 PM.
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05-27-2013, 02:55 PM
  #728
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Buff has incredible talent no doubt, but unless he commits to conditioning and playing his position (whether forward or defense), we should strike while the iron is likely still hot when it comes to getting maximum value from trading him.

I realize how much he adds, but he won't be solid defensively and he pretty much outright refuses to play forward, so......

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05-27-2013, 03:37 PM
  #729
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Its only my opinion but I do not see Buff being a long term Jet. We have him under a decent contract for three seasons so we have time to make our play. Maybe we are one year away from moving him because by that time I think we should know whether Trouba, Postma, or Reds can play in the top 4. We will also have another year to watch Bogo.....that would leave Dusty with two years term left on his contract and I think after that his value diminishes to rental player so IMHO we have a window of 12 months to move Buff to maximize return if he is not part of our long term plans.

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05-27-2013, 03:46 PM
  #730
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Its only my opinion but I do not see Buff being a long term Jet. We have him under a decent contract for three seasons so we have time to make our play. Maybe we are one year away from moving him because by that time I think we should know whether Trouba, Postma, or Reds can play in the top 4. We will also have another year to watch Bogo.....that would leave Dusty with two years term left on his contract and I think after that his value diminishes to rental player so IMHO we have a window of 12 months to move Buff to maximize return if he is not part of our long term plans.
Pretty much agree with you spot on here PS, though i'm not entirely sure we'll part with buff, the strength of our young D seems to seem as though we would.

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05-27-2013, 03:53 PM
  #731
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Pretty much agree with you spot on here PS, though i'm not entirely sure we'll part with buff, the strength of our young D seems to seem as though we would.
Yea Grind itís just a hunch on my part. I have lost faith in anything to do with free agency when it comes to impacting our organization and to get you have to give. I see Dustin as being one of the more likely pieces value wise to move. Time will tell I guess.

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05-27-2013, 04:52 PM
  #732
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Yea Grind itís just a hunch on my part. I have lost faith in anything to do with free agency when it comes to impacting our organization and to get you have to give. I see Dustin as being one of the more likely pieces value wise to move. Time will tell I guess.
Feeling the same, ps. Likely a 12 month window if trading Buff is being considered.

Trouba is the wild card, imo. He's shown a bit, and seems to be on his way to being a solid defender (and maybe even a special player in 2-3 yrs). But I don't think they can move Buff until he's played in the NHL and done fine. That might be one of Chevy's 'tough decisions' over the summer.

It really depends on what you could get for Buff right now. If its not an impact player, then there is likely no reason to move him. If you can get a young impact player and maybe a pick, well...

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05-27-2013, 05:34 PM
  #733
Flair Hay
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
Why?

Buff himself is no more than a 2nd tier RW. He was never special at that position outside of a playoff series or two.

*EDIT*

I'd rather nab a young C/RW who has some upside than slap a top pairing D man into a role that doesn't suit him.
The line about a playoff series or two is obviously where we differ. Where I'm coming from the fact that he was "something special" in multiple playoff series when given a specific role at forward. The only guy who truly contained him all playoffs was Pronger. And even then, Buff managed to salvage one game with a hat trick.

Regular season: 10 times out of 10 give me (for a recently used example) Jeff Skinner over Buff with

Playoffs: give me Buff 10 times out of ten over Skinner.

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05-27-2013, 05:59 PM
  #734
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In my opinion the only way you trade Buff this year is if you are able to acquire a LH #4 defenceman either through the Buff trade or another avenue.

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05-27-2013, 06:20 PM
  #735
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Originally Posted by bhay1987 View Post
The line about a playoff series or two is obviously where we differ. Where I'm coming from the fact that he was "something special" in multiple playoff series when given a specific role at forward. The only guy who truly contained him all playoffs was Pronger. And even then, Buff managed to salvage one game with a hat trick.

Regular season: 10 times out of 10 give me (for a recently used example) Jeff Skinner over Buff with

Playoffs: give me Buff 10 times out of ten over Skinner.
Scoring 11 goals on 45 shots over a 22 game stretch is as much about luck as anything. Denying everything else that known to be true about said player because of that same 22 game stretch is bizarre IMO.

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05-27-2013, 06:27 PM
  #736
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In my opinion the only way you trade Buff this year is if you are able to acquire a LH #4 defenceman either through the Buff trade or another avenue.
What if you move Burmi for a guy like Del Zotto. Adjust accordingly either way. Both seem to be whipping boys and would benefit by a change of scenery. This would free up a trade for Buff concentrating on forward help with our weakness at LHD shored up.

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05-27-2013, 06:42 PM
  #737
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What if you move Burmi for a guy like Del Zotto. Adjust accordingly either way. Both seem to be whipping boys and would benefit by a change of scenery. This would free up a trade for Buff concentrating on forward help with our weakness at LHD shored up.
A coaching change may fix the Del Zotto situation without a change of scenery.

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05-27-2013, 07:07 PM
  #738
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A coaching change may fix the Del Zotto situation without a change of scenery.
Yeah, but I think he would be a nice addition to the Jets. Rangers have a wealth of talent on D and MDZ seems to be a guy we could target that would meet our needs. Especially at a good price.

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05-27-2013, 07:41 PM
  #739
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Scoring 11 goals on 45 shots over a 22 game stretch is as much about luck as anything. Denying everything else that known to be true about said player because of that same 22 game stretch is bizarre IMO.
It's kinda funny when you think about the details of his "playoff success" and look deeper...

The 2009-10 playoffs Byfuglien scored at 2.01 P/60 in 272 minutes of icetime, almost twice the amount of production than he ever did as a forward at any other point in his career (playoffs or regular season). Normally Buff as a forward is in the ~1.00 P/60 minute range as a forward... which is lower than Antropov, Wellwood or Burmistrov...
The idea that it was Buff stepping it up a notch disappears when you realize he was actually generating less shots and scoring chances per a minute than he normally did...

Twice the points than normal without making any more offensive opportunities??? if that doesn't spell out good-luck for that production I don't know what does. The playoffs the year before seemed more along the lines of a normal Byfuglien contribution.

I've broken it down before but Byfuglien has actually created more positives and reduced more negatives as defensemen than a forward. As a forward he's a guy who had a little hot streak at the right time but really is a below average winger. As a defensemen he's an enigma but also a game changer for the positive, and that's even with taking the cons.
Not against trading him, and not saying he'd be better with more conditioning... but he's a great guy and far better defensemen than forward for sure.

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05-27-2013, 08:05 PM
  #740
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Garret, other than Burmi, has there been a forward that 'works' with Kane?

Has Kane had chemistry with anyone other than Burmi and Antro?

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05-27-2013, 08:25 PM
  #741
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Garret, other than Burmi, has there been a forward that 'works' with Kane?

Has Kane had chemistry with anyone other than Burmi and Antro?
Wheeler works. Kane hasn't logged a ton of minutes with anyone else though.

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05-27-2013, 08:26 PM
  #742
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I think you might be letting the numbers create the story a bit there. In 2008 he was on the 4th line but playing time on the PP I believe? Before that he was used as either a defenseman or strictly as a depth forward with time on the PP in front of the goalie. He played forward for only the last 3 series in 2009 and was playing with Toews and Kane if I remember correctly.. Obviously I don't think that pace is sustainable at all.. but if he was playing with two talented players on our second line there's no reason he can't produce like a top six RW with more potential to be a difference maker during the much tighter checking postseason than any regular 2nd liner.

I saw it as a guy completely taking advantage of a crack at the top line with talented guys surrounding him. It's not hard to see how he can be successful in certain situations as a forward. He literally does it on a game-to-game basis. He protects the puck down low and along the walls very well, can obviously screen the goalie and actually bang in rebounds if they're there. He has a heavy shot and better passing vision than anyone in our bottom six. He'll never be elite as his lack of shiftiness will always limit him but he can still help the team. And on the forecheck he can absolutely crush opposition defensemen. He's like a way more dynamic version of Dustin Penner.

Very unlikely it would be near the beginning of the year. Or even during for that matter. But if Trouba really is a MF'N BOSS where he shows potential to be better all around than Buff, then I'd prefer to just make an organizational decision in the off-season to move him to forward if we don't have a long term solution there by a year from now.

There is lots of reasons this won't happen, or plenty of variables that could change where moving him to forward wouldn't be the right move. But if Trouba can live up to the hype, and we can't get a top six C/RW and a 1st in return (which IMO I'm not sure we will) then I'd rather keep him.

If we did get a very good return for him I would do that too. But something tells me other teams know he takes nights off and has pretty sub-par conditioning...I just don't know if it would be worth it to let him go for what (I think, not a fact) is going to be a second rate return for a 60 point defenseman/power forward.

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05-27-2013, 08:39 PM
  #743
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If there is any possible way of getting Simmons from the flyers the Jets need to make that move. Buff for Simmons and swap #1picks

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05-27-2013, 08:44 PM
  #744
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I think you might be letting the numbers create the story a bit there. In 2008 he was on the 4th line but playing time on the PP I believe? Before that he was used as either a defenseman or strictly as a depth forward with time on the PP in front of the goalie. He played forward for only the last 3 series in 2009 and was playing with Toews and Kane if I remember correctly.. Obviously I don't think that pace is sustainable at all.. but if he was playing with two talented players on our second line there's no reason he can't produce like a top six RW with more potential to be a difference maker during the much tighter checking postseason than any regular 2nd liner.

I saw it as a guy completely taking advantage of a crack at the top line with talented guys surrounding him. It's not hard to see how he can be successful in certain situations as a forward. He literally does it on a game-to-game basis. He protects the puck down low and along the walls very well, can obviously screen the goalie and actually bang in rebounds if they're there. He has a heavy shot and better passing vision than anyone in our bottom six. He'll never be elite as his lack of shiftiness will always limit him but he can still help the team. And on the forecheck he can absolutely crush opposition defensemen. He's like a way more dynamic version of Dustin Penner.

Very unlikely it would be near the beginning of the year. Or even during for that matter. But if Trouba really is a MF'N BOSS where he shows potential to be better all around than Buff, then I'd prefer to just make an organizational decision in the off-season to move him to forward if we don't have a long term solution there by a year from now.

There is lots of reasons this won't happen, or plenty of variables that could change where moving him to forward wouldn't be the right move. But if Trouba can live up to the hype, and we can't get a top six C/RW and a 1st in return (which IMO I'm not sure we will) then I'd rather keep him.

If we did get a very good return for him I would do that too. But something tells me other teams know he takes nights off and has pretty sub-par conditioning...I just don't know if it would be worth it to let him go for what (I think, not a fact) is going to be a second rate return for a 60 point defenseman/power forward.
My biggest concern on him playing forward (other than the fact I do believe he is a better D man) is that I am pretty sure his heart will not be into it and Before anyone thinks it's his job to do what the coach says we have to remember this is Buff and he is already a bit of an enigma (IMHO). If we want to see an even bigger gap between his full effort nights and the nights he seems to be sleepwalking then I say hold on to your hats if we force feed him forward. I just don't sense a happy ending where we recapture lightning a bottle and Buff returns to his playoff glory form.

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05-27-2013, 09:31 PM
  #745
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Wheeler works. Kane hasn't logged a ton of minutes with anyone else though.
But defensively, with Olli, they were a mess.

Does it make sense to get a 'two-way' center (who could also play RW) to play with Kane and Wheeler - say a ROR type player - and play Scheifele between Ladd and Little?

Then, change things around to LLW and Kane/Scheifele/? - from time to time when thigs need a 'refresh'.

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05-27-2013, 09:35 PM
  #746
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I think you might be letting the numbers create the story a bit there. In 2008 he was on the 4th line but playing time on the PP I believe? Before that he was used as either a defenseman or strictly as a depth forward with time on the PP in front of the goalie. He played forward for only the last 3 series in 2009 and was playing with Toews and Kane if I remember correctly.. Obviously I don't think that pace is sustainable at all.. but if he was playing with two talented players on our second line there's no reason he can't produce like a top six RW with more potential to be a difference maker during the much tighter checking postseason than any regular 2nd liner.

I saw it as a guy completely taking advantage of a crack at the top line with talented guys surrounding him. It's not hard to see how he can be successful in certain situations as a forward. He literally does it on a game-to-game basis. He protects the puck down low and along the walls very well, can obviously screen the goalie and actually bang in rebounds if they're there. He has a heavy shot and better passing vision than anyone in our bottom six. He'll never be elite as his lack of shiftiness will always limit him but he can still help the team. And on the forecheck he can absolutely crush opposition defensemen. He's like a way more dynamic version of Dustin Penner.

Very unlikely it would be near the beginning of the year. Or even during for that matter. But if Trouba really is a MF'N BOSS where he shows potential to be better all around than Buff, then I'd prefer to just make an organizational decision in the off-season to move him to forward if we don't have a long term solution there by a year from now.

There is lots of reasons this won't happen, or plenty of variables that could change where moving him to forward wouldn't be the right move. But if Trouba can live up to the hype, and we can't get a top six C/RW and a 1st in return (which IMO I'm not sure we will) then I'd rather keep him.

If we did get a very good return for him I would do that too. But something tells me other teams know he takes nights off and has pretty sub-par conditioning...I just don't know if it would be worth it to let him go for what (I think, not a fact) is going to be a second rate return for a 60 point defenseman/power forward.
I've watched Buff a lot in both CHI and ATL (CHI/BOS were my teams pre Jets 2.0 and ATL was my bros team), so I'm not just distracted by numbers
But with the whole usage thing, if A > B in lesser type minutes, usually (not always) if you place them with better players it will will still be A > B irregardless...

Buff is good at a lot of those things that you mentioned and it's part of the reason why he is successful as a D-man too.

I understand what you're saying about Trouba and depending on what we get and I kind of agree. Still, history has shown that over long term that Buff is more impactful in a positive way on defense than forward... but of course as you have alluded to, what's best for individuals impact may not be best for team impact, as that also depends on team depth and abilities at particular positions.


Last edited by garret9: 05-27-2013 at 09:45 PM.
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05-27-2013, 09:44 PM
  #747
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Garret, other than Burmi, has there been a forward that 'works' with Kane?

Has Kane had chemistry with anyone other than Burmi and Antro?
As Truck has specified: Burmi, Antro, Wheeler have worked well
Also missed is Welly.

Kane pushes the play forward a lot himself. He just needs guys who can work walls well and/or not get stuck in their own zone and/or push play forward.
Unfortunately Olli can only do the first one and Mittens can't do any of the three.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
But defensively, with Olli, they were a mess.

Does it make sense to get a 'two-way' center (who could also play RW) to play with Kane and Wheeler - say a ROR type player - and play Scheifele between Ladd and Little?

Then, change things around to LLW and Kane/Scheifele/? - from time to time when thigs need a 'refresh'.
They weren't actually terribad, not super-stars but not bad at all. Their terrible GA is more due to SV% than chances. Neither Wheeler or Kane are 2way all-stars but they push the play forward really well thus reducing opponents chances... but the drop in missing LLW hurt the most in my mind.

The Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler line GA and +/- was hurt a lot with Pavelec being specifically terrible when they were on the ice. They actually did ok in out shooting their opponents, and reducing shots and scoring chances against (and lets not get into the quality of shots debate because it wasn't really that either haha). At the time all 3 of them were in the bottom 10 in the league for the SV% that was behind them (Carter and Richards were also at that point in time) and although they may not be superstars I don't think they combine as the worst defensive line in the league... Heck even on the team (GST last season?)... It looks most likely like it was just poor "puck luck" more than anything... (but lets not kid ourselves, Jokinen isn't good defensively either lol)

So short version:
*Wheeler did work with Kane and better than the GA would indicate
*but losing LLW hurt more than the helping Kane from Jokinen-syndrome

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05-27-2013, 10:29 PM
  #748
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I've watched Buff a lot in both CHI and ATL (CHI/BOS were my teams pre Jets 2.0 and ATL was my bros team), so I'm not just distracted by numbers
But with the whole usage thing, if A > B in lesser type minutes, usually (not always) if you place them with better players it will will still be A > B irregardless...

Buff is good at a lot of those things that you mentioned and it's part of the reason why he is successful as a D-man too.

I understand what you're saying about Trouba and depending on what we get and I kind of agree. Still, history has shown that over long term that Buff is more impactful in a positive way on defense than forward... but of course as you have alluded to, what's best for individuals impact may not be best for team impact, as that also depends on team depth and abilities at particular positions.
Ah okay got ya. That makes sense. What I was mostly trying to say was that Buff could play forward, not should. I think he's best at defense too but if Trouba outshines Buff near the end of next year and you have Bogosian more complete all around than both of them then someone is in for a huge minutes cut. I'm saying Buff at RW > what we likely (IMO) get back in return for Buff on defense. This is debatable obviously but that's what my hockey sense is telling me. The guy can be valuable at either position to me.

If that didn't work, we could hypothetically cut our losses and trade him at that point as well. He'd have a season left on his deal summer 2015. If Trouba isn't developing as quickly as we hope, we can always just keep Buff on defense until he is.

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05-27-2013, 10:30 PM
  #749
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As Truck has specified: Burmi, Antro, Wheeler have worked well
Also missed is Welly.

Kane pushes the play forward a lot himself. He just needs guys who can work walls well and/or not get stuck in their own zone and/or push play forward.
Unfortunately Olli can only do the first one and Mittens can't do any of the three.



They weren't actually terribad, not super-stars but not bad at all. Their terrible GA is more due to SV% than chances. Neither Wheeler or Kane are 2way all-stars but they push the play forward really well thus reducing opponents chances... but the drop in missing LLW hurt the most in my mind.

The Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler line GA and +/- was hurt a lot with Pavelec being specifically terrible when they were on the ice. They actually did ok in out shooting their opponents, and reducing shots and scoring chances against (and lets not get into the quality of shots debate because it wasn't really that either haha). At the time all 3 of them were in the bottom 10 in the league for the SV% that was behind them (Carter and Richards were also at that point in time) and although they may not be superstars I don't think they combine as the worst defensive line in the league... Heck even on the team (GST last season?)... It looks most likely like it was just poor "puck luck" more than anything... (but lets not kid ourselves, Jokinen isn't good defensively either lol)

So short version:
*Wheeler did work with Kane and better than the GA would indicate
*but losing LLW hurt more than the helping Kane from Jokinen-syndrome
So... the Jets should be looking for another Wheeler-type? A fast, pass-first player that can help push the play with Kane? Sounds simple enough.

Just need to pry PA Parenteau away from Avs. Or better yet, Ted Purcell from the TBay Lightning.

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05-27-2013, 11:33 PM
  #750
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But defensively, with Olli, they were a mess.

Does it make sense to get a 'two-way' center (who could also play RW) to play with Kane and Wheeler - say a ROR type player - and play Scheifele between Ladd and Little?

Then, change things around to LLW and Kane/Scheifele/? - from time to time when thigs need a 'refresh'.
They weren't great defensively and I do see that as a legit concern for Olli and Wheels, but Kane isn't a real liability. He may screw up, but he executes more than enough breakouts to make up for it.

Regardless, most of their minus was about goalies not making saves. I believe they were getting beat possesion wise (something like 49%, but it wasn't Kane-Olli-Mittens bad.

I can't remember the exact numbers, but after the first month or so Pav and Al had combined for something like a .850 save percentage with Wheeler on the ice.

Wheeler could be more responsible in his own zone, but it wouldn't hurt a goalie to make a save every now and again.

EDIT

So... what Garret said.


Last edited by truck: 05-27-2013 at 11:47 PM.
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