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Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread 2012-13 (Part IV)

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05-27-2013, 11:47 AM
  #726
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I hear ya, Grind. And agree.

They would have to believe that they won't lose that much in trading Buff - with Bogo's continued progression and Trouba's development. With the return being so great for now and the future, it makes sense in both the short-term and future.

Lots to consider for sure. Buff is 28 and may have injury trouble moving forward carrying as much weight as he does. If TNSE has asked Buff to work on his conditioning and he simply doesn't, then they may look at these moves as a way of putting together a team with the right level of commitment - a message of sorts, that management expects dedication, hard work and focus from all its players. Hard to say what goes on behind closed doors.

As fans we want success now. For TNSE, they may see it as short-term pain for long-term gain. And the future far exceeds what they have currently.

Lots to consider.
that's a big assumption to make as well though, that the future gain will be that big.

My point is, the short term pain may be far more damaging then we at first think.

It's not just the loss of Byfuglien. It's essentially the loss of Byfuglien and the loss of the optimum use of Ladd, Little, wheeler, and Enstrom. As in trying to be the best team possible while they are playing their best hockey, ie "the window".

We move Buff and don't improve linearly next year or excessively in two years, we have to rejig the window so that we're now not trying to compete with these 4 in their prime, were trying to compete when Kane, Bogo, Schiefele are in their prime.

That's my only concern when looking at the pieces in big picture.

IMO, unless your 100% sold on one of trouba-postma-redmond-clitsome to be an above average 2nd pairing dman and one other to be an average/slightly below average 2nd pairing d man, you can't move Buff for a return that is primarily "long term assets".

In short, i don't want to see Buf traded for pieces that move this team significantly backwards, even for just the next year. A downgrade at D + futures or a young significant upgrade at forward would be ideal.

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05-27-2013, 11:57 AM
  #727
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
that's a big assumption to make as well though, that the future gain will be that big.

My point is, the short term pain may be far more damaging then we at first think.

It's not just the loss of Byfuglien. It's essentially the loss of Byfuglien and the loss of the optimum use of Ladd, Little, wheeler, and Enstrom. As in trying to be the best team possible while they are playing their best hockey, ie "the window".

We move Buff and don't improve linearly next year or excessively in two years, we have to rejig the window so that we're now not trying to compete with these 4 in their prime, were trying to compete when Kane, Bogo, Schiefele are in their prime.

That's my only concern when looking at the pieces in big picture.

IMO, unless your 100% sold on one of trouba-postma-redmond-clitsome to be an above average 2nd pairing dman and one other to be an average/slightly below average 2nd pairing d man, you can't move Buff for a return that is primarily "long term assets".

In short, i don't want to see Buf traded for pieces that move this team significantly backwards, even for just the next year. A downgrade at D + futures or a young significant upgrade at forward would be ideal.
I guess where I'm coming from is, I don't mind a Buff deal for futures and quality young NHL talent (like the skinner deal I've floated, for illustration purposes), in gaining value from a Buff move.

Now that wouldn't be the only move the Jets should make, imo. I'm just looking at maximizing a Buff return. If Burmi is a part of it, fine, otherwise he's a chip to be played as well. That move could include a veteran LH dman, for instance. Maybe you grab a 'released' or bought out player in FA.

Roster moves are always fluent. Get the most from a Buff deal, fill in pieces elsewhere.

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05-27-2013, 01:06 PM
  #728
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For what it's worth, I think the organization should definitely keep Buff. He is a bit of an enigma with his size, strength, and skill with the puck. As a rushing defenceman with his skill he forces the other team to adjust their system. I just think he is too valuable to be considered for a trade. Not untouchable, just he has a lot of value that pretty well any team would want.

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05-27-2013, 02:03 PM
  #729
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For what it's worth, I think the organization should definitely keep Buff. He is a bit of an enigma with his size, strength, and skill with the puck. As a rushing defenceman with his skill he forces the other team to adjust their system. I just think he is too valuable to be considered for a trade. Not untouchable, just he has a lot of value that pretty well any team would want.
Ya, though I'm playing Devil's advocate with a Buff trade, its likely a year away. I think, like Grind's been saying, its a pretty big risk to move him now, without really knowing what you have with the young RH dmen (Trouba, Postma and Redmond).

A Buff trade could kick start the collection of talent at forward, but that's at a significant risk at D.

My opinion is, Chevy and Noel like more traditional dmen that play well in their zone, first and then add to the offense when they can or on pp - guys like Bogo and Trouba. They also have Enstrom that adds that puck moving, offensive upside - so once Trouba begins to play like a physical, top 4 dman, they could be ok. I'm thinking that is a year away. Until then, tough to move him.

But, if he's not moved, I'm not expecting significant change to the Jets roster. By significant I mean a potential 30+ g/60+ pt forward being added. I'd even take two 20+ g/50+ forwards, but can't see 2 guys like that (costing somewhere around $4 mill each), and a #4 LH dman (around $3 mill) fitting within the cap - if we sign our big 3 RFA's, and keep Buff and Olli.
So keeping Buff is "more of the same", imo, for 1 more year.

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05-27-2013, 02:33 PM
  #730
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Call me crazy but I am not so sure that we have seen the last of the Byfuglien at forward experiment. If Trouba really is the defenseman we think he is sooner than later and we have to move someone, I would much rather have Buff playing RW than another second tier top six RW + futures we'd be likely to get back in a trade.

If he outright refuses then our hands will be tied no doubt.

Just after watching the impact Burns has had for SJ when a similar "good problem" arose, I won't rule out Buff at forward until I know 100% it's not an option. The monster players with skill are always worth their weight in gold come playoff time.

Dear training staff, get Buff skinny again plz, thanks!

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05-27-2013, 02:36 PM
  #731
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Originally Posted by bhay1987 View Post
Call me crazy but I am not so sure that we have seen the last of the Byfuglien at forward experiment. If Trouba really is the defenseman we think he is sooner than later and we have to move someone, I would much rather have Buff playing RW than another second tier top six RW + futures we'd be likely to get back in a trade.

If he outright refuses then our hands will be tied no doubt.

Just after watching the impact Burns has had for SJ when a similar "good problem" arose, I won't rule out Buff at forward until I know 100% it's not an option. The monster players with skill are always worth their weight in gold come playoff time.

Dear training staff, get Buff skinny again plz, thanks!
Why?

Buff himself is no more than a 2nd tier RW. He was never special at that position outside of a playoff series or two.

*EDIT*

I'd rather nab a young C/RW who has some upside than slap a top pairing D man into a role that doesn't suit him.


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05-27-2013, 02:55 PM
  #732
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Buff has incredible talent no doubt, but unless he commits to conditioning and playing his position (whether forward or defense), we should strike while the iron is likely still hot when it comes to getting maximum value from trading him.

I realize how much he adds, but he won't be solid defensively and he pretty much outright refuses to play forward, so......

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05-27-2013, 03:37 PM
  #733
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Its only my opinion but I do not see Buff being a long term Jet. We have him under a decent contract for three seasons so we have time to make our play. Maybe we are one year away from moving him because by that time I think we should know whether Trouba, Postma, or Reds can play in the top 4. We will also have another year to watch Bogo.....that would leave Dusty with two years term left on his contract and I think after that his value diminishes to rental player so IMHO we have a window of 12 months to move Buff to maximize return if he is not part of our long term plans.

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05-27-2013, 03:46 PM
  #734
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Its only my opinion but I do not see Buff being a long term Jet. We have him under a decent contract for three seasons so we have time to make our play. Maybe we are one year away from moving him because by that time I think we should know whether Trouba, Postma, or Reds can play in the top 4. We will also have another year to watch Bogo.....that would leave Dusty with two years term left on his contract and I think after that his value diminishes to rental player so IMHO we have a window of 12 months to move Buff to maximize return if he is not part of our long term plans.
Pretty much agree with you spot on here PS, though i'm not entirely sure we'll part with buff, the strength of our young D seems to seem as though we would.

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05-27-2013, 03:53 PM
  #735
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Pretty much agree with you spot on here PS, though i'm not entirely sure we'll part with buff, the strength of our young D seems to seem as though we would.
Yea Grind itís just a hunch on my part. I have lost faith in anything to do with free agency when it comes to impacting our organization and to get you have to give. I see Dustin as being one of the more likely pieces value wise to move. Time will tell I guess.

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05-27-2013, 04:52 PM
  #736
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Yea Grind itís just a hunch on my part. I have lost faith in anything to do with free agency when it comes to impacting our organization and to get you have to give. I see Dustin as being one of the more likely pieces value wise to move. Time will tell I guess.
Feeling the same, ps. Likely a 12 month window if trading Buff is being considered.

Trouba is the wild card, imo. He's shown a bit, and seems to be on his way to being a solid defender (and maybe even a special player in 2-3 yrs). But I don't think they can move Buff until he's played in the NHL and done fine. That might be one of Chevy's 'tough decisions' over the summer.

It really depends on what you could get for Buff right now. If its not an impact player, then there is likely no reason to move him. If you can get a young impact player and maybe a pick, well...

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05-27-2013, 05:34 PM
  #737
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Why?

Buff himself is no more than a 2nd tier RW. He was never special at that position outside of a playoff series or two.

*EDIT*

I'd rather nab a young C/RW who has some upside than slap a top pairing D man into a role that doesn't suit him.
The line about a playoff series or two is obviously where we differ. Where I'm coming from the fact that he was "something special" in multiple playoff series when given a specific role at forward. The only guy who truly contained him all playoffs was Pronger. And even then, Buff managed to salvage one game with a hat trick.

Regular season: 10 times out of 10 give me (for a recently used example) Jeff Skinner over Buff with

Playoffs: give me Buff 10 times out of ten over Skinner.

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05-27-2013, 05:59 PM
  #738
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In my opinion the only way you trade Buff this year is if you are able to acquire a LH #4 defenceman either through the Buff trade or another avenue.

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05-27-2013, 06:20 PM
  #739
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The line about a playoff series or two is obviously where we differ. Where I'm coming from the fact that he was "something special" in multiple playoff series when given a specific role at forward. The only guy who truly contained him all playoffs was Pronger. And even then, Buff managed to salvage one game with a hat trick.

Regular season: 10 times out of 10 give me (for a recently used example) Jeff Skinner over Buff with

Playoffs: give me Buff 10 times out of ten over Skinner.
Scoring 11 goals on 45 shots over a 22 game stretch is as much about luck as anything. Denying everything else that known to be true about said player because of that same 22 game stretch is bizarre IMO.

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05-27-2013, 06:27 PM
  #740
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In my opinion the only way you trade Buff this year is if you are able to acquire a LH #4 defenceman either through the Buff trade or another avenue.
What if you move Burmi for a guy like Del Zotto. Adjust accordingly either way. Both seem to be whipping boys and would benefit by a change of scenery. This would free up a trade for Buff concentrating on forward help with our weakness at LHD shored up.

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05-27-2013, 06:42 PM
  #741
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What if you move Burmi for a guy like Del Zotto. Adjust accordingly either way. Both seem to be whipping boys and would benefit by a change of scenery. This would free up a trade for Buff concentrating on forward help with our weakness at LHD shored up.
A coaching change may fix the Del Zotto situation without a change of scenery.

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05-27-2013, 07:07 PM
  #742
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A coaching change may fix the Del Zotto situation without a change of scenery.
Yeah, but I think he would be a nice addition to the Jets. Rangers have a wealth of talent on D and MDZ seems to be a guy we could target that would meet our needs. Especially at a good price.

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05-27-2013, 07:41 PM
  #743
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Scoring 11 goals on 45 shots over a 22 game stretch is as much about luck as anything. Denying everything else that known to be true about said player because of that same 22 game stretch is bizarre IMO.
It's kinda funny when you think about the details of his "playoff success" and look deeper...

The 2009-10 playoffs Byfuglien scored at 2.01 P/60 in 272 minutes of icetime, almost twice the amount of production than he ever did as a forward at any other point in his career (playoffs or regular season). Normally Buff as a forward is in the ~1.00 P/60 minute range as a forward... which is lower than Antropov, Wellwood or Burmistrov...
The idea that it was Buff stepping it up a notch disappears when you realize he was actually generating less shots and scoring chances per a minute than he normally did...

Twice the points than normal without making any more offensive opportunities??? if that doesn't spell out good-luck for that production I don't know what does. The playoffs the year before seemed more along the lines of a normal Byfuglien contribution.

I've broken it down before but Byfuglien has actually created more positives and reduced more negatives as defensemen than a forward. As a forward he's a guy who had a little hot streak at the right time but really is a below average winger. As a defensemen he's an enigma but also a game changer for the positive, and that's even with taking the cons.
Not against trading him, and not saying he'd be better with more conditioning... but he's a great guy and far better defensemen than forward for sure.

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05-27-2013, 08:05 PM
  #744
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Garret, other than Burmi, has there been a forward that 'works' with Kane?

Has Kane had chemistry with anyone other than Burmi and Antro?

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05-27-2013, 08:25 PM
  #745
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Garret, other than Burmi, has there been a forward that 'works' with Kane?

Has Kane had chemistry with anyone other than Burmi and Antro?
Wheeler works. Kane hasn't logged a ton of minutes with anyone else though.

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05-27-2013, 08:26 PM
  #746
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I think you might be letting the numbers create the story a bit there. In 2008 he was on the 4th line but playing time on the PP I believe? Before that he was used as either a defenseman or strictly as a depth forward with time on the PP in front of the goalie. He played forward for only the last 3 series in 2009 and was playing with Toews and Kane if I remember correctly.. Obviously I don't think that pace is sustainable at all.. but if he was playing with two talented players on our second line there's no reason he can't produce like a top six RW with more potential to be a difference maker during the much tighter checking postseason than any regular 2nd liner.

I saw it as a guy completely taking advantage of a crack at the top line with talented guys surrounding him. It's not hard to see how he can be successful in certain situations as a forward. He literally does it on a game-to-game basis. He protects the puck down low and along the walls very well, can obviously screen the goalie and actually bang in rebounds if they're there. He has a heavy shot and better passing vision than anyone in our bottom six. He'll never be elite as his lack of shiftiness will always limit him but he can still help the team. And on the forecheck he can absolutely crush opposition defensemen. He's like a way more dynamic version of Dustin Penner.

Very unlikely it would be near the beginning of the year. Or even during for that matter. But if Trouba really is a MF'N BOSS where he shows potential to be better all around than Buff, then I'd prefer to just make an organizational decision in the off-season to move him to forward if we don't have a long term solution there by a year from now.

There is lots of reasons this won't happen, or plenty of variables that could change where moving him to forward wouldn't be the right move. But if Trouba can live up to the hype, and we can't get a top six C/RW and a 1st in return (which IMO I'm not sure we will) then I'd rather keep him.

If we did get a very good return for him I would do that too. But something tells me other teams know he takes nights off and has pretty sub-par conditioning...I just don't know if it would be worth it to let him go for what (I think, not a fact) is going to be a second rate return for a 60 point defenseman/power forward.

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05-27-2013, 08:39 PM
  #747
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If there is any possible way of getting Simmons from the flyers the Jets need to make that move. Buff for Simmons and swap #1picks

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05-27-2013, 08:44 PM
  #748
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I think you might be letting the numbers create the story a bit there. In 2008 he was on the 4th line but playing time on the PP I believe? Before that he was used as either a defenseman or strictly as a depth forward with time on the PP in front of the goalie. He played forward for only the last 3 series in 2009 and was playing with Toews and Kane if I remember correctly.. Obviously I don't think that pace is sustainable at all.. but if he was playing with two talented players on our second line there's no reason he can't produce like a top six RW with more potential to be a difference maker during the much tighter checking postseason than any regular 2nd liner.

I saw it as a guy completely taking advantage of a crack at the top line with talented guys surrounding him. It's not hard to see how he can be successful in certain situations as a forward. He literally does it on a game-to-game basis. He protects the puck down low and along the walls very well, can obviously screen the goalie and actually bang in rebounds if they're there. He has a heavy shot and better passing vision than anyone in our bottom six. He'll never be elite as his lack of shiftiness will always limit him but he can still help the team. And on the forecheck he can absolutely crush opposition defensemen. He's like a way more dynamic version of Dustin Penner.

Very unlikely it would be near the beginning of the year. Or even during for that matter. But if Trouba really is a MF'N BOSS where he shows potential to be better all around than Buff, then I'd prefer to just make an organizational decision in the off-season to move him to forward if we don't have a long term solution there by a year from now.

There is lots of reasons this won't happen, or plenty of variables that could change where moving him to forward wouldn't be the right move. But if Trouba can live up to the hype, and we can't get a top six C/RW and a 1st in return (which IMO I'm not sure we will) then I'd rather keep him.

If we did get a very good return for him I would do that too. But something tells me other teams know he takes nights off and has pretty sub-par conditioning...I just don't know if it would be worth it to let him go for what (I think, not a fact) is going to be a second rate return for a 60 point defenseman/power forward.
My biggest concern on him playing forward (other than the fact I do believe he is a better D man) is that I am pretty sure his heart will not be into it and Before anyone thinks it's his job to do what the coach says we have to remember this is Buff and he is already a bit of an enigma (IMHO). If we want to see an even bigger gap between his full effort nights and the nights he seems to be sleepwalking then I say hold on to your hats if we force feed him forward. I just don't sense a happy ending where we recapture lightning a bottle and Buff returns to his playoff glory form.

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05-27-2013, 09:31 PM
  #749
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Wheeler works. Kane hasn't logged a ton of minutes with anyone else though.
But defensively, with Olli, they were a mess.

Does it make sense to get a 'two-way' center (who could also play RW) to play with Kane and Wheeler - say a ROR type player - and play Scheifele between Ladd and Little?

Then, change things around to LLW and Kane/Scheifele/? - from time to time when thigs need a 'refresh'.

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05-27-2013, 09:35 PM
  #750
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I think you might be letting the numbers create the story a bit there. In 2008 he was on the 4th line but playing time on the PP I believe? Before that he was used as either a defenseman or strictly as a depth forward with time on the PP in front of the goalie. He played forward for only the last 3 series in 2009 and was playing with Toews and Kane if I remember correctly.. Obviously I don't think that pace is sustainable at all.. but if he was playing with two talented players on our second line there's no reason he can't produce like a top six RW with more potential to be a difference maker during the much tighter checking postseason than any regular 2nd liner.

I saw it as a guy completely taking advantage of a crack at the top line with talented guys surrounding him. It's not hard to see how he can be successful in certain situations as a forward. He literally does it on a game-to-game basis. He protects the puck down low and along the walls very well, can obviously screen the goalie and actually bang in rebounds if they're there. He has a heavy shot and better passing vision than anyone in our bottom six. He'll never be elite as his lack of shiftiness will always limit him but he can still help the team. And on the forecheck he can absolutely crush opposition defensemen. He's like a way more dynamic version of Dustin Penner.

Very unlikely it would be near the beginning of the year. Or even during for that matter. But if Trouba really is a MF'N BOSS where he shows potential to be better all around than Buff, then I'd prefer to just make an organizational decision in the off-season to move him to forward if we don't have a long term solution there by a year from now.

There is lots of reasons this won't happen, or plenty of variables that could change where moving him to forward wouldn't be the right move. But if Trouba can live up to the hype, and we can't get a top six C/RW and a 1st in return (which IMO I'm not sure we will) then I'd rather keep him.

If we did get a very good return for him I would do that too. But something tells me other teams know he takes nights off and has pretty sub-par conditioning...I just don't know if it would be worth it to let him go for what (I think, not a fact) is going to be a second rate return for a 60 point defenseman/power forward.
I've watched Buff a lot in both CHI and ATL (CHI/BOS were my teams pre Jets 2.0 and ATL was my bros team), so I'm not just distracted by numbers
But with the whole usage thing, if A > B in lesser type minutes, usually (not always) if you place them with better players it will will still be A > B irregardless...

Buff is good at a lot of those things that you mentioned and it's part of the reason why he is successful as a D-man too.

I understand what you're saying about Trouba and depending on what we get and I kind of agree. Still, history has shown that over long term that Buff is more impactful in a positive way on defense than forward... but of course as you have alluded to, what's best for individuals impact may not be best for team impact, as that also depends on team depth and abilities at particular positions.


Last edited by garret9: 05-27-2013 at 09:45 PM.
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