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Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread 2012-13 (Part IV)

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Old
05-27-2013, 09:44 PM
  #751
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Garret, other than Burmi, has there been a forward that 'works' with Kane?

Has Kane had chemistry with anyone other than Burmi and Antro?
As Truck has specified: Burmi, Antro, Wheeler have worked well
Also missed is Welly.

Kane pushes the play forward a lot himself. He just needs guys who can work walls well and/or not get stuck in their own zone and/or push play forward.
Unfortunately Olli can only do the first one and Mittens can't do any of the three.

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But defensively, with Olli, they were a mess.

Does it make sense to get a 'two-way' center (who could also play RW) to play with Kane and Wheeler - say a ROR type player - and play Scheifele between Ladd and Little?

Then, change things around to LLW and Kane/Scheifele/? - from time to time when thigs need a 'refresh'.
They weren't actually terribad, not super-stars but not bad at all. Their terrible GA is more due to SV% than chances. Neither Wheeler or Kane are 2way all-stars but they push the play forward really well thus reducing opponents chances... but the drop in missing LLW hurt the most in my mind.

The Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler line GA and +/- was hurt a lot with Pavelec being specifically terrible when they were on the ice. They actually did ok in out shooting their opponents, and reducing shots and scoring chances against (and lets not get into the quality of shots debate because it wasn't really that either haha). At the time all 3 of them were in the bottom 10 in the league for the SV% that was behind them (Carter and Richards were also at that point in time) and although they may not be superstars I don't think they combine as the worst defensive line in the league... Heck even on the team (GST last season?)... It looks most likely like it was just poor "puck luck" more than anything... (but lets not kid ourselves, Jokinen isn't good defensively either lol)

So short version:
*Wheeler did work with Kane and better than the GA would indicate
*but losing LLW hurt more than the helping Kane from Jokinen-syndrome

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05-27-2013, 10:29 PM
  #752
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I've watched Buff a lot in both CHI and ATL (CHI/BOS were my teams pre Jets 2.0 and ATL was my bros team), so I'm not just distracted by numbers
But with the whole usage thing, if A > B in lesser type minutes, usually (not always) if you place them with better players it will will still be A > B irregardless...

Buff is good at a lot of those things that you mentioned and it's part of the reason why he is successful as a D-man too.

I understand what you're saying about Trouba and depending on what we get and I kind of agree. Still, history has shown that over long term that Buff is more impactful in a positive way on defense than forward... but of course as you have alluded to, what's best for individuals impact may not be best for team impact, as that also depends on team depth and abilities at particular positions.
Ah okay got ya. That makes sense. What I was mostly trying to say was that Buff could play forward, not should. I think he's best at defense too but if Trouba outshines Buff near the end of next year and you have Bogosian more complete all around than both of them then someone is in for a huge minutes cut. I'm saying Buff at RW > what we likely (IMO) get back in return for Buff on defense. This is debatable obviously but that's what my hockey sense is telling me. The guy can be valuable at either position to me.

If that didn't work, we could hypothetically cut our losses and trade him at that point as well. He'd have a season left on his deal summer 2015. If Trouba isn't developing as quickly as we hope, we can always just keep Buff on defense until he is.

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05-27-2013, 10:30 PM
  #753
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
As Truck has specified: Burmi, Antro, Wheeler have worked well
Also missed is Welly.

Kane pushes the play forward a lot himself. He just needs guys who can work walls well and/or not get stuck in their own zone and/or push play forward.
Unfortunately Olli can only do the first one and Mittens can't do any of the three.



They weren't actually terribad, not super-stars but not bad at all. Their terrible GA is more due to SV% than chances. Neither Wheeler or Kane are 2way all-stars but they push the play forward really well thus reducing opponents chances... but the drop in missing LLW hurt the most in my mind.

The Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler line GA and +/- was hurt a lot with Pavelec being specifically terrible when they were on the ice. They actually did ok in out shooting their opponents, and reducing shots and scoring chances against (and lets not get into the quality of shots debate because it wasn't really that either haha). At the time all 3 of them were in the bottom 10 in the league for the SV% that was behind them (Carter and Richards were also at that point in time) and although they may not be superstars I don't think they combine as the worst defensive line in the league... Heck even on the team (GST last season?)... It looks most likely like it was just poor "puck luck" more than anything... (but lets not kid ourselves, Jokinen isn't good defensively either lol)

So short version:
*Wheeler did work with Kane and better than the GA would indicate
*but losing LLW hurt more than the helping Kane from Jokinen-syndrome
So... the Jets should be looking for another Wheeler-type? A fast, pass-first player that can help push the play with Kane? Sounds simple enough.

Just need to pry PA Parenteau away from Avs. Or better yet, Ted Purcell from the TBay Lightning.

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05-27-2013, 11:33 PM
  #754
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
But defensively, with Olli, they were a mess.

Does it make sense to get a 'two-way' center (who could also play RW) to play with Kane and Wheeler - say a ROR type player - and play Scheifele between Ladd and Little?

Then, change things around to LLW and Kane/Scheifele/? - from time to time when thigs need a 'refresh'.
They weren't great defensively and I do see that as a legit concern for Olli and Wheels, but Kane isn't a real liability. He may screw up, but he executes more than enough breakouts to make up for it.

Regardless, most of their minus was about goalies not making saves. I believe they were getting beat possesion wise (something like 49%, but it wasn't Kane-Olli-Mittens bad.

I can't remember the exact numbers, but after the first month or so Pav and Al had combined for something like a .850 save percentage with Wheeler on the ice.

Wheeler could be more responsible in his own zone, but it wouldn't hurt a goalie to make a save every now and again.

EDIT

So... what Garret said.


Last edited by truck: 05-27-2013 at 11:47 PM.
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05-27-2013, 11:42 PM
  #755
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So... the Jets should be looking for another Wheeler-type? A fast, pass-first player that can help push the play with Kane? Sounds simple enough.

Just need to pry PA Parenteau away from Avs. Or better yet, Ted Purcell from the TBay Lightning.
Anything beats Miettinen... well almost

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05-28-2013, 01:24 PM
  #756
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I'm sure you already know this, but we were discussing on the Preds board one of our prospects, Brendan Leipsic. He ended up being the top scorer in the WHL. I was trying to temper expectations and came up with Postma as an example. In 08-09 with the Calgary Hitmen, he was +67 with 84 pts. (23+61)

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05-28-2013, 01:40 PM
  #757
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Originally Posted by AtlantaWhaler View Post
I'm sure you already know this, but we were discussing on the Preds board one of our prospects, Brendan Leipsic. He ended up being the top scorer in the WHL. I was trying to temper expectations and came up with Postma as an example. In 08-09 with the Calgary Hitmen, he was +67 with 84 pts. (23+61)
Leipsic is a big time agitator but played in a high octane offensive system on a great line in Portland so it would be wise to temper expectations on the roll he will play for Nashville. He is small but plays with the Marchand attitude so we shall see how (if) his game translates to the NHL. I know people like to use Marchand as an example when they are referencing any undersized player but Leipsic actually has a similar attitude (swagger). One thing for sure is he is a competitor that will get his nose dirty and play around the net.

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05-28-2013, 01:43 PM
  #758
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Originally Posted by AtlantaWhaler View Post
I'm sure you already know this, but we were discussing on the Preds board one of our prospects, Brendan Leipsic. He ended up being the top scorer in the WHL. I was trying to temper expectations and came up with Postma as an example. In 08-09 with the Calgary Hitmen, he was +67 with 84 pts. (23+61)
Postma still has a legitimate shot at the NHL as a bottom pair D. It's much more difficult to project how a D prospect will end up vs a forward.

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05-28-2013, 01:52 PM
  #759
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Leipsic is a big time agitator but played in a high octane offensive system on a great line in Portland so it would be wise to temper expectations on the roll he will play for Nashville. He is small but plays with the Marchand attitude so we shall see how (if) his game translates to the NHL. I know people like to use Marchand as an example when they are referencing any undersized player but Leipsic actually has a similar attitude (swagger). One thing for sure is he is a competitor that will get his nose dirty and play around the net.
Yeah, we're pretty excited...but we'll see. I had forgotten about those stats that Postma put up. 84 pts for a D?! That's insane.

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05-28-2013, 04:23 PM
  #760
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Yeah, we're pretty excited...but we'll see. I had forgotten about those stats that Postma put up. 84 pts for a D?! That's insane.
AtlantaWhaler, what's the latest on Ekholm? Both in terms of his development / play, as well as his opportunity with the Preds next season.

He'll be 24 when the season starts so I'm guessing he would have to clear waivers to go to the minors? Will be be on the roster this year?

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05-28-2013, 04:43 PM
  #761
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AtlantaWhaler, what's the latest on Ekholm? Both in terms of his development / play, as well as his opportunity with the Preds next season.

He'll be 24 when the season starts so I'm guessing he would have to clear waivers to go to the minors? Will be be on the roster this year?
Nope. He has one more year of being waiver free. Waiver rules are not really based on current age, it's more about when a player first signs his NHL contract.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaWhaler View Post
I'm sure you already know this, but we were discussing on the Preds board one of our prospects, Brendan Leipsic. He ended up being the top scorer in the WHL. I was trying to temper expectations and came up with Postma as an example. In 08-09 with the Calgary Hitmen, he was +67 with 84 pts. (23+61)
Postma is very underrated on these boards. He is a solid bottom pairing guy already, and has more upside in him. His defensive game is not nearly so bad as people make out, and he was rarely used in his bread and butter situation in Winnipeg (the powerplay).

Postma is 6'3'' and a defenseman, whereas Leipsic is 5'8'' and a forward. Not sure why Postma would even be in the discussion? Leipsic could be another Justin Azevedo, or Brendan Gallagher.

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05-28-2013, 04:45 PM
  #762
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Nope. He has one more year of being waiver free. Waiver rules are not really based on current age, it's more about when a player first signs his NHL contract.
Thanks HC, I didn't have the time to look at Capgeek and just took a guess based on age.

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05-28-2013, 04:50 PM
  #763
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So whats everyone thoughts on Ivan Telgin? obviously had a rough year on the rock but still has a lot of upside does he not??

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05-28-2013, 06:09 PM
  #764
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So whats everyone thoughts on Ivan Telgin? obviously had a rough year on the rock but still has a lot of upside does he not??
Tough to tell.
When St.J was suffering bad the Telegin-ODell-Klingberg line was really good and fun to watch... but then he lost so much of the season with injuries.
I always thought of him as needing some time for refinement so he's worth being project and take time with... although he's from the same draft class as Burmi so maybe his time is up

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05-28-2013, 07:12 PM
  #765
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Nope. He has one more year of being waiver free. Waiver rules are not really based on current age, it's more about when a player first signs his NHL contract.



Postma is very underrated on these boards. He is a solid bottom pairing guy already, and has more upside in him. His defensive game is not nearly so bad as people make out, and he was rarely used in his bread and butter situation in Winnipeg (the powerplay).

Postma is 6'3'' and a defenseman, whereas Leipsic is 5'8'' and a forward. Not sure why Postma would even be in the discussion? Leipsic could be another Justin Azevedo, or Brendan Gallagher.
I agree on Postma. His mistakes (which seemed to become less frequent and impactful as he played more) are expected for a rookie NHL defenseman. What he does have is size and offensive instinct. It very well may take him a couple/ few more years to reach the potential he possesses. He still could end up being a very good NHL defenseman.

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05-28-2013, 07:24 PM
  #766
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I agree on Postma. His mistakes (which seemed to become less frequent and impactful as he played more) are expected for a rookie NHL defenseman. What he does have is size and offensive instinct. It very well may take him a couple/ few more years to reach the potential he possesses. He still could end up being a very good NHL defenseman.
His offensive abilities wowed me on a few occasions. He just missed on a couple prime opportunities and he can handle the puck through traffic with speed better than most Jet forwards.

If he can get his offensive game rolling and smooth out overall he could be a nice puck moving #4/PP specialist. He really doesn't hit though. Like Toby levels of none. The hitting doesn't mean much to me, but he is a little soft on the boards, which is odd for a guy that size.

EDIT

I thought Postma looked shaky early, but apart from the one brutal turnover that led to a shorty he was pretty steady after his trip to the press box.


Last edited by truck: 05-28-2013 at 07:33 PM.
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05-28-2013, 08:17 PM
  #767
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Well I'm not buying what your selling re: Postma.

Until he improves his gap control and can contain forwards in the d zone, he's an offensive specialist that may be a good 2nd unit pp player. But I can't see him playing significant minutes and in all situations until he can show he can play solid defense. How long do you shelter him?

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05-28-2013, 08:52 PM
  #768
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I have Postma ahead of Redmond on my depth chart. I really like what he brings to the table now, and I like his upside. Now, the Jets appear to have a number of righties who can contribute on the PP which diminishes one the big positives to Posty's game. However, in a vacuum, I like him over Redmond. This may or may not prove to be a smart statement.

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05-28-2013, 09:00 PM
  #769
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Postma was figuring it all out late in the year. Early he was a MA Bergeron in his own end, then he saw the press box. When back he focused on D and was much improved. The last bit he was back skating with the puck again. I think he might turn out to be pretty darn good.

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05-28-2013, 10:25 PM
  #770
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Postma was figuring it all out late in the year. Early he was a MA Bergeron in his own end, then he saw the press box. When back he focused on D and was much improved. The last bit he was back skating with the puck again. I think he might turn out to be pretty darn good.
I disagree. The only thing he 'figured out' was jumping into the rush a bit more, and scored a few more goals and points, later in the year.

Defensively his game didn't change much.

But if that's the player he is, that's fine. Is he an NHL player? Absolutely. I just don't see him gaining more ice and playing significant mins on PK, etc. Will or can he play top 4 mins. Not until he's more competent in his zone, and reduce the giveaways, etc. he would have a very difficult time playing playoff hockey, IMO. Redmond would be better suited to playoff hockey, which makes him higher on my depth chart than Postma.

But that's the sign of a young dman.

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05-28-2013, 10:39 PM
  #771
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Well I'm not buying what your selling re: Postma.

Until he improves his gap control and can contain forwards in the d zone, he's an offensive specialist that may be a good 2nd unit pp player. But I can't see him playing significant minutes and in all situations until he can show he can play solid defense. How long do you shelter him?
I think you are asking too much from Postma considering his mold and level of NHL experience. Not all defensemen come in a la Karlsson and have it figured out immediately. Some D men don't 'get it' til they are in their late twenties.

I think all you can do is continue to look for improvement. As long as he is heading in the right direction then you have to be happy with his development.

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05-28-2013, 11:06 PM
  #772
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I think you are asking too much from Postma considering his mold and level of NHL experience. Not all defensemen come in a la Karlsson and have it figured out immediately. Some D men don't 'get it' til they are in their late twenties.

I think all you can do is continue to look for improvement. As long as he is heading in the right direction then you have to be happy with his development.
The only thing I objected to was the comment he's not that bad defensively.

Right now, I'm not sure who is worse defensively than Postma on the Jets d. Redmond started to struggle, before he was sat down and then injured. But defensively, he was stronger than Postma and if he wasn't injured, likely would have played more games and more mins than Postma, IMO. But we'll never know, I suppose.

He's got a long ways to go defensively, but offensively he can push the play and support the rush well. And has a bomb from the point and should be used on the pp more. He's young and his offensive game is developing and better than maybe half the Jets d. I would like to see more progression playing defence. But that may be just me.


Edit: looked up his box stats and in his last 4 games he had 0 pts and was -3. Averaging around 15 mins. All I'm saying is he has work to do defensively.


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05-29-2013, 03:20 AM
  #773
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on the postma/defence note... i guess its never a bad thing to have a decent number of talented guys, but doesnt it seem like we have a very weird mix of players?

assuming postma is on the third pairing... we basically have 4 defencemen that are more offensively talented than defensively

enstrom's skating makes him useful in our own zone, but lack of physicality and net presence hurt him a lot.. our first pairing is not a shutdown pair

buff is buff... we've talked his pros and cons to death

clitsome checks hard and plays somewhat physical, but he is still at his best as a puck moving/distributing guy, with a decent shot to go along with it... his defence improved drastically, but not to a top 4 level IMO

and postma, whos been discussed in this page alot, way more of an offensive minded player than anything

that leaves redmond, stuart, bogo, hainsey (likely gone), meech, and trouba. FOUR of which are right hand D. we likely need the most help on the left side going forward... are any of these guys going to be able to excell on their off-side, or do we need to look at filling that void elsewhere

as many combinations as i drum up in my head, none really look that solid defensively to me. even if trouba steps in and contributes right away

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05-29-2013, 07:06 AM
  #774
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AtlantaWhaler, what's the latest on Ekholm? Both in terms of his development / play, as well as his opportunity with the Preds next season.
Everyone is excited about Ekholm, however, so far it's been mainly because of his play overseas. So far, he's had trouble adapting to NA ice. He played with the Preds for some of the 11-12 season and was eventually called out by Trotz for poor play. This past year in Milwaukee (AHL), I believe he played well, but missed some time due to injury.

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Postma is 6'3'' and a defenseman, whereas Leipsic is 5'8'' and a forward. Not sure why Postma would even be in the discussion? Leipsic could be another Justin Azevedo, or Brendan Gallagher.
The only reason why Postma was being discussed was just to make a point that huge numbers in juniors (or more exactly the Dub), doesn't translate into top-end talent. Though it wasn't a knock on Postma.

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05-29-2013, 07:16 AM
  #775
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I think you are asking too much from Postma considering his mold and level of NHL experience. Not all defensemen come in a la Karlsson and have it figured out immediately. Some D men don't 'get it' til they are in their late twenties.

I think all you can do is continue to look for improvement. As long as he is heading in the right direction then you have to be happy with his development.
Yeah, Karlsson was not even close to "having it all figured out" when he came to the NHL. His defensive game was a MESS. I mean a rotten ridiculous mess. He was Cam Fowler bad when he broke in. It's improved steadily though, to just below average.

Postma is not a rock defensively. He never will be. Asking him to play defensively or play PK will always be a mistcast. Wanting him to be a physical player also wouldn't work. But he moves the puck real well, skates real well, decent enough positionally. Needs to continue to improve his defense, but it is not terrible like some make it out to be. It's below average, not horrendous. It will likely never be above average, but that's alright.

I take Postma's natural skill and upside over Redmond's slightly steadier lower upside play. But that's just MO.

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