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2013 Off-Season Speculation/Be a GM Thread II

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Old
05-29-2013, 12:35 AM
  #51
Kwayry
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Originally Posted by Brian Boyle View Post
It's actually 5th overall.

I think Tlusty/McBain/1st is fair, personally. Maybe take McBain out.

Faulk I doubt will be moved. It's more of a sideways step than anything for Carolina if they make that move.
Why Tlusty?
Edit: he is a 3rd liner shooting 20%, he won't sustain it. His value will never get higher. It's downhill from here.

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05-29-2013, 12:41 AM
  #52
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I don't get this Faulk lust, what has he proven? Yeah he looks good right now but can he sustain it?
Here are numbers for 3 Dmen's first full season in the NHL

Player 1
GP 80 G 9 A 28 PTS 37 Shooting .111
Player 2
GP 66 G 8 A 14 PTS 22 Shooting .079
Player 3
GP 76 G 7 A 23 PTS 30 Shooting .074

Which one would you take?
I'll let you guess who the players are.

Staal is a proven commodity, I will take that over potential everyday of the week and twice on Sunday.

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05-29-2013, 12:42 AM
  #53
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Why Tlusty?
Edit: he is a 3rd liner shooting 20%, he won't sustain it. His value will never get higher. It's downhill from here.
He gets a lot of high percentage chances, i.e bang-bang plays and rebounds. He is one of the better finishers in the league, and he's a very good two-way player.

I'm probably a bigger fan of Tlusty than most, but I think he's going to be a 25-30 goal player moving forward, with potential for more when paired with elite players.

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Old
05-29-2013, 12:58 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Brian Boyle View Post
He gets a lot of high percentage chances, i.e bang-bang plays and rebounds. He is one of the better finishers in the league, and he's a very good two-way player.

I'm probably a bigger fan of Tlusty than most, but I think he's going to be a 25-30 goal player moving forward, with potential for more when paired with elite players.
I don't see it. He has been shooting close to 50% over his career avg, I don't see how he can improve on that. And this is a guy that has a track record. He has been in the league for 6 years. He may be a late bloomer, but the odds are he will regress to the mean.

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05-29-2013, 01:22 AM
  #55
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Well Faulk did have more points than Staal this season so he's clearly a better player.

Something about Tlusty scares me. I can see him coming here and barely breaking 15 goals. If I'm trading Staal I want a good top-6 forward coming back.

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Old
05-29-2013, 01:32 AM
  #56
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Originally Posted by darko View Post
Well Faulk did have more points than Staal this season so he's clearly a better player.
Not sure if serious.
If we use that measuring stick, then DZ is the much better than the both of them. He had almost as many points as the both of them combined.
Staal 11 points in 21 games
Faulk 15 points in 38 games
DZ 21 points in 46 games.

Obviously Staal is the better player. But I think you knew that.

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05-29-2013, 01:50 AM
  #57
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Justin Faulk is a better player than Marc Staal right now.
Why havent we made them give up Ryan Murphy yet???

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Old
05-29-2013, 01:55 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Brian Boyle View Post
Kershaw telling people to watch games.

Priceless.

I know how good Faulk is. He's incredible. But to suggest he's better than Staal, one of the best defenders in the league, is asinine.
Only in New York, Marc Staal is considered 'one of the best defenders in the game'. lol. He's not even top 10. Probably not even top 20.

I don't think you realize how good Faulk is. He has had garbage defense partners since his rookie years and still carries that team on his back defensively.

From the eye test alone, he is pretty much the complete hockey player. Great stickwork, amazing positioning, good reads/pinches, elite skating, excellent hands and an accurate shot. His real flaw in his game right now is his indefinite decision making, but that is a flaw for a lot of young PMD in the league like it was for Karlsson/Subban.

Now let's get to the statistics. Faulk's most common defense partners this year are Gleason and Harrison. Jay Harrison's play skyrocketed in 11-12 as a top 4 defender playing alongside Faulk. The year before, he was a depth dman playing 15 MPG. Gleason is a solid, rugged veteran, but his skating hasn't been the same since Ovechkin kneed him a few years back. Faulk started with 45.5% of his shifts starting in his own end and his finishing zone starts are 51.0%. He, by far faces the toughest opposition by his coaches and is by far first in the team in adjusted shot differential ratings (CorsiRelQOC). That is a high level of dominance by an individual. He leads the Canes Dmen in TOI/PG, SH TOI/PG. He carries a garbage defense by himself single handily. It is a crime to see how underrated he is.

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05-29-2013, 02:00 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Kershaw View Post
Only in New York, Marc Staal is considered 'one of the best defenders in the game'. lol. He's not even top 10. Probably not even top 20
Only in Kershaw's mind is Marc Staal not considered one of the best defenders in the game. lol.

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05-29-2013, 02:03 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Torey Krug Fan View Post


C'mon, dude.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lundsanity30 View Post
no one knows how staal will. rebound or heal, but before injury he was our TOP ( sorry mcd) shutdown dman and one of the best in the league. he was great pre injury and our d went to **** after we lost him.. people are entitled to their opinions but Faulk better than staal? no way
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kwayry View Post
What do you base that on?
And what's your opinion Tlusty?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcman View Post
Justin Faulk's EYESIGHT is better than Marc Staal's right now

Jeez guys Kersh just made a mistake
It was just my opinion.....

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05-29-2013, 02:03 AM
  #61
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Name the 20 Kershaw.

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Old
05-29-2013, 02:04 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Kershaw View Post
It was just my opinion.....
I was on your side </3

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Old
05-29-2013, 02:05 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Kwayry View Post
What do you base that on?
And what's your opinion Tlusty?
Tlusty is an alright piece for a tweener I guess. You've got to surround him with star players to get the most out of him though. He's shockingly transitioned into a nice 2-way guy.

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05-29-2013, 02:12 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Brian Boyle View Post
Only in Kershaw's mind is Marc Staal not considered one of the best defenders in the game. lol.
Quote:
Originally Posted by darko View Post
Name the 20 Kershaw.
Just 20 from top of my head.

Erik Karlsson
Zdeno Chara
Shea Weber
Ryan Suter
Drew Doughty
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Alex Pietrangelo
Kris Letang
Duncan Keith
Brent Seabrook
Dan Hamhuis
Dion Phaneuf
Tobias Enstrom
Ryan McDonagh
Marc Eduord-Vlasic
PK Subban
Andrei Markov
Mike Green
Victor Hedman
Niklas Kronwall

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Old
05-29-2013, 02:16 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Ola View Post
Why havent we made them give up Ryan Murphy yet???
Perhaps they don't want to move Murphy or maybe the Rangers aren't interested. My only viewing of him was in the WJC and he was god awful.

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Old
05-29-2013, 02:17 AM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kershaw View Post
Just 20 from top of my head.

Erik Karlsson
Zdeno Chara
Shea Weber
Ryan Suter
Drew Doughty
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Alex Pietrangelo
Kris Letang
Duncan Keith
Brent Seabrook
Dan Hamhuis
Dion Phaneuf
Tobias Enstrom
Ryan McDonagh
Marc Eduord-Vlasic
PK Subban
Andrei Markov
Mike Green
Victor Hedman
Niklas Kronwall
I can understand the others based on their offense, but Hamhuis and Vlasic are also shutdown D-men and they're not better at it than Staal is. Those choices seem very forced and nit-picky to me.

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Old
05-29-2013, 02:19 AM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
I can understand the others based on their offense, but Hamhuis and Vlasic are also shutdown D-men and they're not better at it than Staal is. Those choices seem very forced and nit-picky to me.
I feel the listed defensemen are better overall players than Staal. Feel free to critique/disagree with my choices. I think Hamhuis and Vlasic are slightly better than Staal defensively.

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Old
05-29-2013, 05:52 AM
  #68
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Originally Posted by bernmeister View Post
There is too much to say and too little time...

A lot of you guys with some of the crazy proposals in the last thread: Del Zotto and a throw in for Yakupov? Meanwhile, while Girardi's stock was high, and finally rebuffed on Taylor Hall (not as to value but because he's their face of the franchise) I had more credible Girardi + for Yakupov, only to get flamed here.


Those who do not learn the lesson of going 1 or 2 steps backwards to have a good enough shot at 5+ steps forwards, are dooming the club to continued suffering. We gambled and lost on Clowe, who was not a good investment, because of his footspeed, and now minus the picks we are trying to make the best of the situation.

That said, here are my latest thoughts.

We need a comprehensive strategy that moves out vets, adds younger talent that can grow as we stay ahead of being under the cap.

Repeat after me: THERE ARE NO SACRED COWS. THERE ARE NO SACRED COWS. THERE ARE NO SACRED COWS.

Ok, fire Torts, that's easy. Sullivan + Gernander as bench/assistant are fine in either order. But the real coach is our captain, Ryan Callahan.

Hank -- It will be obvious what we are doing. Offer him a base of 5 mil/yr + bonuses, which kick in with performance but also is a way of paying him most of what is not spent on getting up to the full cap. We make it open ended, only 1 year, for 7 years, he can buy out of his contract anytime for $1, but he has to give us one full year's notice.

Trades:
The AVs will not flip the 1st to us for "the 5th +". They want nothing less than McDonagh from us, or Hedman from TB, etc. They want lefties, but not Staal. They may be having second thoughts, but because they are deep at C, LD should do it.

I've come to the conclusion that the smart thing to do would be take McKinnon with the first pick overall. It is not clear if he will need the same time Tavares did, but this could be the guy, in short while, who would not only be a sniper in a pinch, but a serious 1C. Possibly better than anybody we can expect except Malkin if he comes, and adding a guy like McKinnon as a protege under him might encourage Malkin to consider us more seriously.

They don't want to throw him in, but I believe we can also pry like 8th overall Duncan Siemens with the 1st if we add another useful lefty, Del Zotto. There may be a thought to balance them not as a pair (i.e., one puck mover, one stay at home) but the thought of Siemens - McIlrath is totally kick ass.

So trade 1: McDonagh + MDZ for the 1st (McKinnon) + Siemens
[Also, if McD wants to head out to the heartland for personal reasons, COL would be closer than NY.]

Trade 2: Staal/Staal + to CAR for 5th overall + Y

Trade 3: Stepan + CAR for 5th overall to FL for 2nd overall + Z
With McK in the fold Stepan is enough to land a pick which gets Jones.
It is expected Z will obviously be nice prospects and/or high future FL pick
Tallon's gotta like a 1C and that high pick

Trade 4: Brian Boyle + Christian Thomas + Taylor Pyatt + Calle Andersson
to CBH
for Dylan Olsen, Mark McNeil, Pat Beach + Adam Clendenning + one of Rangers 3 thirds this year. Rangers may have to further add, slightly.

Olsen, a lefty shot, is listed as RD, but I expect can adjust if needed Clendenning righty shot RD. Beach is short term project, big, strong bust but cheap filler for a year. McNeil a legit first, but is coming along slowly needs seasoning.

Hawks do this cause Boyle is a nice fall back to lower 6, Thomas + Anderson are nice picks, Pyatt better filler if needed more likely a cap dump, cheap to another team for a 6th/7th. And the best of our 3rds in a deep draft is good value.

Trade 5: Girardi + and a future Ranger 2nd to TOR for future Maple Leafs 1st and Gardiner
Kinda obvious, no explanations necessary.

Trade 6: McNeil + Stralman + Eminger + Newbury to Edmonton for a lefty D prospects Oscar Klefbom (1st rounder), Martin Marincin (2nd rounder), and Martin Gernat (5th rounder) + 2nd round C Tyler Pitlick
McNeil and Klefborm are close overalll, Klef being 19th overall in 2011, and McN one ahead that year. Stralman is a solid 4, Eminger a solid 6/7, and they are righties, which are in short supply, so there is some nominal value added. Newbury adds grit.
Edmonton gets a legit 3C w2C potential available soon, 1 D who definitely makes the roster now, another who competes, a likely 4th liner who provides grit Oiler fans complain about not having.

Rangers have better upside, but unclear as to how fast these picks are here, though Klefbom + Marincin are likely for this year.

-------------

Clowe do not re-sign, Clowe of 5 years ago, ok, but this was desperate gamble, he's got jam, but losing footspeed. Most importantly, he'd cost a future 2nd. Just say no.

Richards. Make an effort -- Slats this is you --- to see if some kind of exception can be agreed to between NHLPA + league, either as to just Richards, or more realistically, to all similar scenarios.

If yes, then trade for best return.
If no, then keep as possible 4C for 1 yr or do a Redden then amnesty him.

Why not amnesty now?
I would be open to that, but unless you really use that buyout for good free agent signings, then it makes more biz sense in long run to amnesty next year and save both cap + $$ if I understand the figures correctly.

With moving all these guys who were soon due for raises, etc, we should have enough cap space to sign a couple of UFAs if we want. I say if Chicago passes on Bickell and Stralberg, sign both BUT ONLY FOR 1 YEAR. They may consider that if Rangers have shot to win, and NY offers high profile, and they can, after only next year, having shown this season was not a fluke, get really set up for a serious payday, they may consider the one year gamble for increased payout.

I would also look now at grooming Randy McNaught for the 4L RW after Asham. Just to see if he could cut the 5-6 min per night. I don't say he's got the D skills and his development has been interrupted. But he is big, hits like a truck, would do serious corner checking, drop the gloves.

Now, guess what all that gets ya!

F:
Hagelin, McKinnon Nash
Kreider Brassard Callahan
Bickel Miller Stalberg
Beach Lindberg Asham
Powe Haley Dorset

Yogan Pitlick Fast
and other prospect core (NIeves, Noreau, etc. still good)
I would also like to see Kreider a few extra shifts experimenting at C, but only on a super speed line: Hagelin, Miller Cally Stralberg as wingers.

And the D:
LD RD
Moore Jones
Gardiner Clendenning
Klefbom Olsen
Marincin Gernat
Siemens - McIlrath

G:
Lundqvist
Talbot
I think we go younger, start grooming Talbot, see what Blues want for Jake Allen, who may be #3 over there

Oh yeah, and we upgraded our future 2nd to a Maple Leaf 1st.

Only thing not nailed down is exactly what Tallon will want with the 5th overall for the 2nd overall. But obviously, we should be able to swing it!

These posts are why I voted you as funniest poster in the boardies. You crack me up bern. Trade everyone!

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Old
05-29-2013, 05:54 AM
  #69
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Perhaps they don't want to move Murphy or maybe the Rangers aren't interested. My only viewing of him was in the WJC and he was god awful.
We should be interested if he could be had. Slats needs to turn over some stones here.

Ryan Murphy undoubtedly have the raw ability. He is an extremely dynamic young D, and almost only matched by E Karlsson and Brodin in some areas (his skating and stickhandling, he is especially not just able to rush the puck (many kids can do that at the junior level) but he got that ability to just skate 8s around people). People can trash him all they want for his WJC's showing, RM was awsome in several games but got the blame when Canada as a team failed. I also saw some of him in the U18 WJC's, and he scored 2 PPG's in that tournament.

In the end, I think, that all that matters with a kid like that is to give him a really good environment to succeed in. We really have a set table for a kid like that. We have been waiting for him for decades.

My point is just, we have an extremely flawed transition game, we have an extremely flawed puck-possession game, we have one of the worst PP's -- due to Torts system. When Torts had success in Tampa, the game was very diffrent etc. And, he also had one of the best PMD's in the game in Dan Boyle, and one of the best puck possession forwards in Martin St Louis. There have been talk about if Torts can change, that talk is somewhat irrelevant because a change isn't made over a summer. It takes years to implement these stuff. And Torts is probably not very good at implementing break out's etc., he has coached for a quite long time without ever using them. But a big advantage with Torts is that he won't cripple his players as long as they don't screw up. Hence we might be able to cover for some of Torts flaws with a certain type of players. Ryan Murphy fits that bill perfectly.


Last edited by Ola: 05-29-2013 at 06:03 AM.
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05-29-2013, 05:56 AM
  #70
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Isn't someone who is top 30 pretty good?

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05-29-2013, 06:29 AM
  #71
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Dan Boyle? SJ isn't giving him away for cheap. He is 37 and has a huge cap hit. What are the Rangers trading for him? SJ wanted young assets at the deadline.

Brent Burns is a right winger these days. He hasn't played D in months. Burns plays on Thornton's wing. SJ traded their top prospect,top six forward and a #1 pick for Burns. The Rangers can't afford that after forking over 4 assets for Nash.

Another guy is this Bobby Ryan. The Rangers already have a fat and lazy overpriced winger in Nash. They don't need another one. Bob Murray wanted a kings ransom for Ryan last summer. The Rangers can't afford another multiple asset trade for another winger.

The Rangers need to make hockey trades. Get out of the star search business. Get out of the free agent business.

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05-29-2013, 06:37 AM
  #72
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Why havent we made them give up Ryan Murphy yet???
Agree. That's the player I'd want from Carolina.

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05-29-2013, 06:39 AM
  #73
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Originally Posted by Ola View Post
We should be interested if he could be had. Slats needs to turn over some stones here.

Ryan Murphy undoubtedly have the raw ability. He is an extremely dynamic young D, and almost only matched by E Karlsson and Brodin in some areas (his skating and stickhandling, he is especially not just able to rush the puck (many kids can do that at the junior level) but he got that ability to just skate 8s around people). People can trash him all they want for his WJC's showing, RM was awsome in several games but got the blame when Canada as a team failed. I also saw some of him in the U18 WJC's, and he scored 2 PPG's in that tournament.

In the end, I think, that all that matters with a kid like that is to give him a really good environment to succeed in. We really have a set table for a kid like that. We have been waiting for him for decades.

My point is just, we have an extremely flawed transition game, we have an extremely flawed puck-possession game, we have one of the worst PP's -- due to Torts system. When Torts had success in Tampa, the game was very diffrent etc. And, he also had one of the best PMD's in the game in Dan Boyle, and one of the best puck possession forwards in Martin St Louis. There have been talk about if Torts can change, that talk is somewhat irrelevant because a change isn't made over a summer. It takes years to implement these stuff. And Torts is probably not very good at implementing break out's etc., he has coached for a quite long time without ever using them. But a big advantage with Torts is that he won't cripple his players as long as they don't screw up. Hence we might be able to cover for some of Torts flaws with a certain type of players. Ryan Murphy fits that bill perfectly.
I do agree with almost all you said. Unfurtunately I am of the opinion that in today's NHL you can't win without good system (puck movement and transition) and PP, even though you have all the talent in the world and the best goalie to boot. The good system with slightly worse players beats the bad (Torts') system with better players. That is the reason I do not put much hope into the debate (and its results) whether we acquire this guy or that one, because it loses its meaning. All we can acquire is the best available player, other teams will therefore get slightly lesser players. But once incorporater into better systems, they win.

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05-29-2013, 06:40 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by bobbop View Post
Forget about this Staal to Anaheim stuff. Everyone in hockey knows about the Staals. Is this another trade that works on NHL13?

If Mark wants to go to Carolina, I suspect Sather would do exactly what Shero did last year -- accomodate him. I also assume Rutherford would do the same thing he did last year -- pay a fair price. For me that's Falk and the 6th.

Don't expect that will happen.
The only reason to go to Carolina is because of his brothers. Eric got his knee banged up by Edler in the WC. He was very lucky it wasn't a torn ACL. Jordan played in the WC too. He is now home watching his former team reach the conference finals. Will Carolina be better playing in a tougher division from now on? Is that team competing for the playoffs next season or will they be out it before the trading deadline? How does Jordan feel about his decision now? That's a budget team. Everything needs to break right for them to be successful. That's hard. The Canes made the playoffs once since winning the Cup in 2006. That was in 2009 when they lost in the ECF to Pittsburgh. Carolina upset Boston in the 2nd round.

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05-29-2013, 06:50 AM
  #75
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Chicago rebuilt their depth with young players. Saad, Shaw. Kruger. Leddy(acquired in trade w/Johnsson for Barker). They acquired Stallberg in the Versteeg trade. Skille for Frolik. Kruger and Frolik have formed the best PK pair in the NHL. Frolik was an offensive player in FLA. He is a role player with the Hawks. Bickell was a pick from 2004. Took him a while to figure it out. No free agents signed to 3 year contracts. No Mike Rupps. No Pyatts and Ashams. 2 year deals for them.

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