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Montreal Canadiens Drafting Hit Rate (under Trevor Timmins)

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06-01-2013, 04:44 PM
  #1
Habiton
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Montreal Canadiens Drafting Hit Rate (under Trevor Timmins)

Hi All,

Trevor Timmins is of the elite in the NHL in terms of scouting. I wanted to prove that to everyone by showing them his true track record. Did you know that over the top 3 rounds we have a 67% percent chance of getting a NHL Player? Thats staggering.

In fact in this draft we are slated to get 3.86 NHL players? (Round it to 4!)

I was going to put this in the draft section but I want everyone to see it. I did a lot of research to see how effective Trevor Timmins actually is. Lets put a number on it and see what the "value" of our picks should be. I assume this is what the management does. Timmins joined the organization in 2002-2003 so his first official draft year was 2003.

I define an impact player as a bonefide top 2/4 defensemen for an extended period of time or a bonefide top 6 forward. A star is defined as a player who has made it to an all-star game and/or had a truly dominant season. I define NHL regular as someone who can and did play regular minutes for a team in their prime. I also removed some who cannot be graded as of yet dueto the fact that they havent developed fully yet. Please note that regulars don't include the Impact Players or Stars in their calculations. See regulars+ for that.

Also please keep in mind that people like Patches, Gally, Galch are defined to what they are now. Not to what they can become. This is an at worst scenario in terms of our young players.

EDIT: Added the NHL's hit rate. Compared to the NHL the Montreal Canadians:

The Montreal Canadiens have a 46.35% higher chance at selecting an NHL quality player in the first two rounds (our success is 1.4635x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 90.10% higher chance at selecting a star player (our success is 1.910x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 11.85% higher chance at selecting an impact player (our success is 1.185x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 61.14% higher chance at selecting an regular player (our success is 1.185x the NHL average)
The Montreal Canadiens have a 44.19% lower chance at selecting a bust (our success is .558x the NHL average)

57 players were picked to be evaluated during this time.
2 Stars (PK + Price)
7 Impact Players
11 Regulars
37 Busts

In the top 3 rounds 21 players were picked
2 Stars (PK + Price)
3 Impact Players
9 Regulars
Only 7 Busts

In the top 2 rounds 14 players were picked
2 Star (PK)
3 Impact Players
5 Regulars
Only 4 Busts


Hit Rate - Top 2 Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 71.42%
Stars - 14.28%
Impact Players - 21.43%
Regulars - 35.71%
Busts - 28.57%

Hit Rate - Top 3 Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 66.67%
Stars - 9.52%
Impact Players - 14.28%
Regulars - 42.86%
Busts - 33.3%

Hit Rate - All Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 35.1%
Stars - 3.5%
Impact Players - 12.28%
Regulars - 19.3%
Busts - 64.9%

Hit Rate - Individual Rounds

1st Round Picks
Stars - 12.5%
Impact Players - 37.5%
Regulars - 37.5%
Regulars+ - 87.5%
Busts - 12.5%

2nd Round Picks
Stars - 16.7%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 33.3%
Regulars+ - 50%
Busts - 50%

3rd Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 57.1%
Regulars+ - 57.1%
Busts - 42.9%

4th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 0%
Regulars+ - 0%
Busts - 100%

5th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 28.6%
Regulars - 0%
Regulars+ - 28.6%
Busts - 71.4%

6th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 0%
Regulars - 14.3%
Regulars+ - 14.3%
Busts - 85.7%

7th Round Picks
Stars - 0%
Impact Players - 13.3%
Regulars - 6.67%
Regulars+ - 20%
Busts - 80%



Raw Data

1st Round
2003 - Andrei Kostitsyn (regular)
2004 - Kyle Chipchura (regular)
2005 - Carey Price (star)
2006 - David Fischer (bust, now get over it!)
2007 - Ryan McDonagh (impact), Max Pacioretty (impact to be star)
2008 - None
2009 - Louis Leblanc (developing)
2010 - Jarred Tinordi (regular, to be impact imo)
2011 - Nathan Beaulieu (developing)
2012 - Alex Galchenyuk (impact, to be star)
Totals
Stars - 1
Impact Players - 3
Regulars - 3
Busts - 1

2nd Round
2003 - Cory Urquhart (bust), Maxim Lapierre (regular)
2004 - None
2005 - Guillaume Latendresse (regular)
2006 - Ben Maxwell(bust), Mathieu Carle (bust)
2007 - PK Subban (star)
2008 - Danny Kristo (developing)
2009 - None
2010/11 - None
2012 - Dalton Thrower (developing) and Sebastian Collberg(developing)
Totals
Star - 1
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 2
Busts - 3

3rd Round
2003 - Ryan O'Byrne (regular)
2004 - Alexei Emelin (regular)
2005 - None
2006 - Ryan White (regular)
2007 - Olivier Fortier (bust), Yannick Weber (regular)
2008 - Steve Quailer (hesitant to say bust here but bust)
2009 - Joonas Nattinen (bust) and Mac Bennett (developing)
2010 - None
2011 - None
2012 - Tim Bozon (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 4
Busts - 3

4th Round
2003 - Corey Locke (bust), Danny Stewart (bust)
2004 - J. T. Wyman (bust)
2005 - Juraj Mikus (bust)
2006 - None
2007 - None
2008 - Jason Missiaen (bust)
2009 - Alexander Avtsin (bust)
2010 - Mark Macmillan (developing), Morgan Ellis (developing)
2011 - Josiah Didier (developing), Oliiver Archambault (bust), Magnus Nygren (developing)
2012 - Brady Vail (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 0
Busts - 7

5th Round
2003 - None
2004 - Mikhail Grabovski (impact)
2005 - Mathieu Aubin (bust)
2006 - Pavel Valentenko (bust)
2007 - Joe Stejskal (bust), Andrew Conboy (bust)
2008 - Maxim Trunev (bust)
2009 - Gabriel Dumont (Developing - Cant say bust or regular at this point)
2010 - Brendan Gallagher (impact)
2011 - Darren Dietz (developing)
2012 - Charles Hudon (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 2
Regulars - 0
Busts - 5

6th Round
2003 - Christopher Heino-Lindberg (bust), Mark Flood (bust)
2004 - Loic Lacasse (bust)
2005 - Matt D'Agostini (regular)
2006 - None
2007 - Nichlas Torp (bust)
2008 - None
2009 - Dustin Walsh (bust)
2010 - None
2011 - Daniel Pribyl (bust)
2012 - Erik Nystrom (developing)
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 0
Regulars - 1
Busts - 6

7th Round (including everything past the 7th round for the years it was there)
2003 - Oskari Korpikari (bust), Jimmy Bonneau (8th round, bust), Jaroslav Halak (impact, 9th round)
2004 - Nicolas Sandor (bust), Gregory Stewart (8th round, bust), Mark Streit (9th round, impact), Alexandre Dulac-Lemelin (9th round, bust)
2005 - Sergei Kostitsyn (regular), Philippe Paquet (bust)
2006 - Cameron Cepek (bust)
2007 - Scott Kishel (bust)
2008 - Patrick Johnson (bust)
2009 - Michael Cichy (bust), Petteri Simila (bust)
2010 - John Westin (bust)
2011 - Colin Sullivan (developing)
2012 - None
Totals
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 2
Regulars - 1
Busts - 12

Overall NHL Hit Rate

Over the course of 7 Drafts which totals (over the first two rounds) 420 picks the following is their ratings. 334 are available to be judged.

25 Stars
64 Impact Players
74 Regulars
= 163 NHL "quality players"
171 Busts

86 "Are too early to judge (basically anyone who didnt qualify as an NHL player got popped into here, there might be some busts)"

Hit Rate - Top 2 Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 48.8%
Stars - 7.48%
Impact Players - 19.16%
Regulars - 22.16%
Busts - 51.2%


Last edited by Habiton: 06-01-2013 at 06:40 PM. Reason: Carey Price is a star, recalculated it for that. Added NHL Data
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06-01-2013, 04:59 PM
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Nice list, a lot of thought went into this so good job!
I'd like to see how that scales compared to other teams drafting percentage.

Nonetheless nice work, by you and Timmins lol

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06-01-2013, 05:10 PM
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I would disagree that Joonas Naatinen is a bust yet.

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06-01-2013, 05:10 PM
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Habiton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTLSandman View Post
Nice list, a lot of thought went into this so good job!
I'd like to see how that scales compared to other teams drafting percentage.

Nonetheless nice work, by you and Timmins lol
Haha thanks. I was considering it, perhaps if I get bored one day I will do that!

It's interesting to see the real effectiveness that Timmins has. You either love him or hate him but you cannot argue with his glowing success.

Thaiven: Yeah I was considering labeling him in development but he hasn't been anything good since getting here. I hope he turns it around but I'm trying to be as objective as possible haha

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06-01-2013, 05:23 PM
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good job!

agree with the other poster that it would cool to see the other teams picks, maybe just the top 3 rounds if you have the time one day.

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06-01-2013, 05:52 PM
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OneSharpMarble
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Looks pretty average, every team in the league drafts regulars like those.

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06-01-2013, 06:14 PM
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DJ Breadman
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Doug Mclean was talking about how cup winning teams over the past so many years have had at least 11 players in their lineup that they drafted

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06-01-2013, 06:17 PM
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What would be cool would be to compare that to the past 4 cup winners: LA Penguins Bruins and Hawks, we can argue they may be the most threatening teams year in year out, so comparing us to them would be insightful.

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06-01-2013, 06:26 PM
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LeMAD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
Looks pretty average, every team in the league drafts regulars like those.
We're not the best in the league, but we're top-10 for sure.

Ottawa is pretty damn solid the last few years.

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06-01-2013, 06:38 PM
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Habiton
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Okay so I did an NHL average one for the first two rounds. I added the info to the above thread but here is the more detailed information. Please note that this will always be subjective, I tried to make regulars as players who have played upwards of two full seasons in the NHL. There will be a few mistakes in here just because of the volume of data.

Over the course of 7 Drafts which totals (over the first two rounds) 420 picks the following is their ratings. 334 are available to be judged.

25 Stars
64 Impact Players
74 Regulars
= 163 NHL "quality players"
171 Busts

86 "Are too early to judge (basically anyone who didnt qualify as an NHL player got popped into here, there might be some busts)"

Hit Rate - Top 2 Rounds

Overall NHL Quality Players - 48.8%
Stars - 7.48%
Impact Players - 19.16%
Regulars - 22.16%
Busts - 51.2%

1st Round

2003
Stars - 6
Impact Players - 10
Regulars - 7
Regulars+ - 23
Busts - 7

2004
Stars - 2
Impact Players - 5
Regulars - 11
Regulars+ - 18
Busts - 12

2005
Stars - 3
Impact Players - 3
Regulars - 10
Regulars+ - 16
Busts - 14

2006
Stars - 3
Impact Players - 5
Regulars - 10
Regulars+ - 18
Busts - 12

2007
Stars - 2
Impact Players - 7
Regulars - 5
Regulars+ - 14
Busts - 16

Players are still developing so please keep that in mind, Im not sure on the status of all the prospects so if they havent played more than 80 games in the NHL they are considered "busts" even though they arent busts.
2008
Stars - 3
Impact Players - 8
Regulars - 4
Regulars+ - 15
Busts - Cant call anyone busts at this point

2009
Stars - 1
Impact Players - 6
Regulars - 5
Regulars+ - 12
Busts - Cant call anyone busts at this point

2nd Round

2003
Stars - 3
Impact Players - 4
Regulars - 4
Regulars+ - 11
Busts - 19

2004
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 5
Regulars - 3
Regulars+ - 8
Busts - 22

2005
Stars - 1
Impact Players - 3
Regulars - 4
Regulars+ - 8
Busts - 22

2006
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 3
Regulars - 6
Regulars+ - 9
Busts - 21

2007
Stars - 1
Impact Players - 1
Regulars - 2
Regulars+ - 4
Busts - 26

Players are still developing so please keep that in mind, Im not sure on the status of all the prospects so if they havent played more than 80 games in the NHL they are considered "busts" even though they arent busts.
2008
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 3
Regulars - 1
Regulars+ - 4
Busts - Cant call anyone busts at this point

2009
Stars - 0
Impact Players - 1
Regulars - 2
Regulars+ - 3
Busts - Cant call anyone busts at this point

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06-01-2013, 06:41 PM
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Habiton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
Looks pretty average, every team in the league drafts regulars like those.
See my additions. We are well, well above average.

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06-01-2013, 06:51 PM
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I think everybody agree that out drafting is one of the best what we are lacking is in trading, evaluation and cap management (previous administration of course).

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06-01-2013, 06:56 PM
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Yes, the key to having a successful team is drafting.....but as many have mentioned on here before, it's also player management. A number of those players drafted are not with our team anymore.....some traded and some let go. I'm not saying I disagree with letting some go....but losing a McDonaugh hurts us for sure. Imagine him behind Subban and Markov right now. Throw in Emelin and we're pushing Gorges or Diaz into the 5 spot. Oh well.....why cry now?

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06-01-2013, 06:58 PM
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Habiton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
I think everybody agree that out drafting is one of the best what we are lacking is in trading, evaluation and cap management (previous administration of course).
Absolutely. My trouble is with those who put little value attached to our second rounders. We have a fantastic shot at getting a impact player in the top two rounds (about 36%) so trading one for immediate help like Doug Murray is just dumb. We need to trust the scouting staff and be a little more patient with our draft picks (LeBlanc comes to mind)

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06-01-2013, 06:58 PM
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Steve Shutt
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Why do you have Daniel Pribyl list as "bust"? Isn't it a bit early for that assessment or did Mtl not sign him and I missed it?

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06-01-2013, 06:59 PM
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Habiton
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Why do you have Daniel Pribyl list as "bust"? Isn't it a bit early for that assessment or did Mtl not sign him and I missed it?
It just came in, he won't be signed by the Habs

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06-01-2013, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by MTLSandman View Post
Nice list, a lot of thought went into this so good job!
I'd like to see how that scales compared to other teams drafting percentage.

Nonetheless nice work, by you and Timmins lol
A short glimpse through Detroit picks gives me a strong impression that we outperform them.

Los Angeles does much better than Detroit but they also had may top picks.
Same with Pens.
Bruins did good but the trade with the leafs definitively helped a lot by giving them top picks.
Chicago also did OK but they had a few bust with top picks.

All in all comparing the results of Timmins against those teams shows very impressive results.
We have to remember that Timmins had only two top-5 picks and one 10th pick.
The rest of first round picks are higher: 12, 17, 18, 18, 20, 22...

I think that classifying picks by round does not represent the real value. I would rather see:
  • top-5;
  • 6-15;
  • 16-30;
  • Round 2 (31-60);
  • Round 3 (61-90);
  • Round 4 and 5;
  • Round 6 and 7.
or something similar.

Something else I would like from Habs management would be to see them get more FA players that have been left a la Desharnais, St-Louis (once every 10 years), Burrows, etc.

Hopefully, the new management team will help Timmins in fine tuning these picks.
Also, we will see in a year or two the first benefits of our development.
By increasing the resources devoted to finding and developing players we should have an extra edge over most teams in the league.

When you think about it, it is a very good investment: one bottom player cost 1M. For every 1M you can have 4-5 scouts (including expenses) that will give you help.
Plus, these costs are decreased by the part that would be devoted in revenue sharing.

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06-01-2013, 07:12 PM
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Craig71
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Based on all of the facts presented and excellent work by the way, I don't really see why everyone is jumping up and down over Timmins. His results have been very average and I am sure there must be plenty of NHL scouts that have done just as well if not better.

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06-01-2013, 07:15 PM
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le_sean
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ Breadman View Post
Doug Mclean was talking about how cup winning teams over the past so many years have had at least 11 players in their lineup that they drafted
What the Habs needed was the 3rd overall pick to get a top end talent. Kings got Doughty, Bruins got Seguin, Hawks got Kane and Toews.

The depth is there, just not the elite level talent. It is very rare to strike gold like the Ducks (Getzlaf and Perry) and Red Wings (Datsyuk and Zetterberg) did.

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06-01-2013, 07:52 PM
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Habiton
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
What the Habs needed was the 3rd overall pick to get a top end talent. Kings got Doughty, Bruins got Seguin, Hawks got Kane and Toews.

The depth is there, just not the elite level talent. It is very rare to strike gold like the Ducks (Getzlaf and Perry) and Red Wings (Datsyuk and Zetterberg) did.
Agreed but I do think that if we let our players mature and trade the ones we view as non-essential when their value is high (as I said to trade DD last year) we can acquire top end talent. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on how you look at it, we won't really be in a situation to have several high picks and/or the top FAs signing with us.

We have to deal with the hand we have been dealt and you do that by drafting well, adding free agents who will be valuable assets and managing our players as best as we can. If this year shows you anything it is that teams need depth to win, I would rather take a team like LA with plenty of top end talent and depth versus a team like Edmonton who is chalk full of elite talent but no depth or veteran leadership.

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06-01-2013, 08:00 PM
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OneSharpMarble
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Based on all of the facts presented and excellent work by the way, I don't really see why everyone is jumping up and down over Timmins. His results have been very average and I am sure there must be plenty of NHL scouts that have done just as well if not better.
It is average, however the team certainly shows where his expertise is well below average and that is in the forward department. You can look at the habs and see where our drafting has been weakest, offensively minded wingers and anyone with physicality. Centre depth is finally getting better but that is through no help of Timmins.

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06-01-2013, 08:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Physical HABuse View Post
Yes, the key to having a successful team is drafting.....but as many have mentioned on here before, it's also player management. A number of those players drafted are not with our team anymore.....some traded and some let go. I'm not saying I disagree with letting some go....but losing a McDonaugh hurts us for sure. Imagine him behind Subban and Markov right now. Throw in Emelin and we're pushing Gorges or Diaz into the 5 spot. Oh well.....why cry now?
I think NB is spending more time knowing the real value of our players than BG.

But also, we must remember the context when this happened.
BG redid the team in one summer.
Letting go Koivu and given Plek previous season (39 points), he had to get a center.

Who else was he going to give up as a top prospect? PK, MaxPac, Lats, SKost?
For all we know, Fischer may have been offered.

At that time, we barely had a top-6 and our defense was Markov, Hamrlik, Oby and Gorges. We got Gill, Mara and Spacek as UFA.

I do remember the centers available at that time and there was not many. We ended up with Gomez, Plek, Lapierre and Metropolit.

At that time, we let go: Koivu, Tanguay, Kovalev, Lang, Komisarek, Kostopoulos, Begin, etc.

Hindsight is 20/20 but we have to look at the whole picture at that time not now.

The team that BG built was able to get to conference finals (thanks to Halak) which is quite impressive given all the changes that were done.
And Gomez feeding Gionta and Cammy was a part of this run.

If McDonagh is the only impact player that we missed in a decade (2003-2012) is not so bad. Especially given he was traded for a top-6 center.
Maybe I am emotional about this because the PO we had, winning against Washington and Pittsburgh, was so great that it may be worth not having McDonagh.

What do you prefer: McDonagh or the PO run we had that year + Eller?
You can not have both...

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06-01-2013, 08:04 PM
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Habiton
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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
It is average, however the team certainly shows where his expertise is well below average and that is in the forward department. You can look at the habs and see where our drafting has been weakest, offensively minded wingers and anyone with physicality. Centre depth is finally getting better but that is through no help of Timmins.
I disagree with you that they are average. However I have a bit of food for thought for you here. Don't you think it would benefit the organization to draft to the scouting staffs strengths? If we view defense men as more valuable in terms of assets and therefore are higher on our BPA list we should draft them. We can trade our surplus to fill our weaknesses but drafting players to have some of everything is going against the get the best asset strategy. In the past 5 years teams have been going have size with skill and we have kept constant with BPA (except for Fischer lol) and that's why we are above average.

Just a theory!

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06-01-2013, 08:56 PM
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OneSharpMarble
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I disagree with you that they are average. However I have a bit of food for thought for you here. Don't you think it would benefit the organization to draft to the scouting staffs strengths? If we view defense men as more valuable in terms of assets and therefore are higher on our BPA list we should draft them. We can trade our surplus to fill our weaknesses but drafting players to have some of everything is going against the get the best asset strategy. In the past 5 years teams have been going have size with skill and we have kept constant with BPA (except for Fischer lol) and that's why we are above average.

Just a theory!
No, we only have 6 spots for defencemen and the majority of those will be occupied with veterans. If we can't draft and develop offensive players we will never compete with the best in the league.

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06-01-2013, 09:00 PM
  #25
Teufelsdreck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
Looks pretty average, every team in the league drafts regulars like those.
Some of the really successful teams had high picks in successive seasons. Others built up by signing free agents or trading (which Timmins had no hand in but had to watch helplessly as Gainey traded away McDonagh).

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