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Phoenix LXXXI: I'll Gladly Pay You Tuesday for Your Franchise Today!

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Old
06-02-2013, 01:00 AM
  #26
Tommy Hawk
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
I posted this in the previous thread, but as a recap:

1) Because we know the financing options on this deal, and because it is rumored/supposed that the same was available to JIG we know that NHL was honest in saying that the price was not the problem.

2) Also, we know that the NHL really has done lots to keep the team there in Glendale.

3) We wonder why? My answer is that the NHL will try to stay until the city says "We don't need you...." I say that because in every other relocation that I can remember, there was some sort of rejection by local officials. The NHL will try to keep that precedent.

4) In the sum of all these things, we can simply observe that really, nothing has changed. NHL is offering financing on the team, just like before. NHL is waiting to see what Glendale says, just like before. There is really no great push on the part of the NHL in May/June of 2013 to force the team to stay. It really is just more of the same old, same old.
EDIT TO ADD: It is my opinion that there is no need to read any anti-QC feeling into any of this. It is simply the preferred process playing out.

5) The difference now is that
a) Glendale City Council seems more likely than ever before to look at cold hard numbers and tell the NHL "We can't offer you what you need. We have better options for us." (This would be ticket out).
b) NHL seems to have made a deadline for CoG and the LeBlanc group that "If the team is staying you have to have a lease SOON.

That is all really.

It comes down to this:
What will the City Council do in the next week, as the rumored NHL deadline looms?

2) The NHL has not done a whole lot to keep the team in Glendale. They blackmailed and lied to a bunch of idiot council members "It's just an insurance policy, the team will be sold well before it needs to be collected" and the ever popular "give us 25 mil or the team goes to Winnipeg". If they had REALLY want to make sure the team would stay, show it has the potential to be profitable on its own.

3) No rejection form local officials from Atlanta. The arena manager told them to go pound sand.




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Originally Posted by LeafShark View Post

Bettman has that used car salesman smell all over him trying to sell a car that's going to break down once it leaves the lot. I would like to think that Gary Bettman is a rational player, and that the mayor of Glendale and the newly elected officials are rational players. Rationally, the team ends up in Quebec, but it seems like it's going to drag out as long as possible. The NHL really wants to see what kind of offers Glendale got on the arena before acting.
They will have the RFP response preliminary numbers on Monday. It will be quite an interesting dynamic considering Sherwood was ballyhooing the reported numbers to manage the arena. Either the number will come back either in the ballpark of what CoG was thinking (or better) or the number will come back to be much higher. The thing about RFPs is that if you know there is a number to hit, you will hit or better that number. Rarely do you come in worse off, you would typically not respond if you are not going to come in on target or better.

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06-02-2013, 01:13 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Tommy Hawk View Post
2)
3) No rejection form local officials from Atlanta. The arena manager told them to go pound sand.
Semantic, you got the point anyway it like waiting for your "Girlfriend/Boyfriend" to dump you so you ain't the ******* who ended the relationship.

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06-02-2013, 07:29 AM
  #28
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Semantic, you got the point anyway it like waiting for your "Girlfriend/Boyfriend" to dump you so you ain't the ******* who ended the relationship.
Thanks, madhi. Also, effectively the city let them leave by not jumping up to build a hockey only arena. Not that Bettman ever specifically asked. But he feels that is the responsibility of the city (arena, market, owner).

As for the blackmailing of the city, that was Bettman twice offering them room to say "good bye". Right now he is doing that again. It is true they have been neglectful in arena operating. But, one must admit that the price on the team if it stays in Glendale is not out of line.

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06-02-2013, 07:55 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
Thanks, madhi. Also, effectively the city let them leave by not jumping up to build a hockey only arena. Not that Bettman ever specifically asked. But he feels that is the responsibility of the city (arena, market, owner).
Why would Atlanta need a second large arena, specifically one for a sport that would be best described as non-traditional? Georgia Tech already has a basketball arena that fulfills it's need, the Hawks wouldn't move to it. Atlanta would have no use for a second large arena.

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06-02-2013, 08:26 AM
  #30
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Why would Atlanta need a second large arena, specifically one for a sport that would be best described as non-traditional? Georgia Tech already has a basketball arena that fulfills it's need, the Hawks wouldn't move to it. Atlanta would have no use for a second large arena.
Totally correct. Especially in the sense that hockey alone is not a good picture in Atlanta. But, if the City of Atlanta wanted an NHL team, that is what they would need. And, because they don't have one, and won't have one, unless the CBA changes, that is one reason they won't ever have an NHL team.

I brought this up only to illustrate that Atlanta also falls into the category of "We won't leave until we are told to leave." Hypothetically, after ASG threw the Thrashers at Bettman, if Atlanta City Gov't had called Gary and said "We guarantee a new 17000 seat facility in 2 years. All income yours." What would have happened? I think Bettman would have found a way to hang around for the 2 years. Of course, Atlanta didn't do that, and shouldn't have done that. But in not doing that, THEY gave NHL room to leave (Of course, the greatest 'permission' to leave came from ASG).

And, the irony. JimA. Your question is "Why would Atlanta need a 2nd large arena?" We can also ask "Why did the Phoenix area need a 2nd large arena?" Answer: they didn't. Your question exactly shows the error in judgment of Glendale in building the job.


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06-02-2013, 08:51 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
And, the irony. JimA. Your question is "Why would Atlanta need a 2nd large arena?" We can also ask "Why did the Phoenix area need a 2nd large arena?" Answer: they didn't. Your question exactly shows the error in judgment of Glendale in building the job.
sure, we all know that now.

but at that time, there were many factors that didnt make it an altogether stupid decision to build that arena. yes, it was a big gamble and events since then have resulted in a financial disaster for most parties concerned. but obviously the arena can be successful. the various pre- and post-nhl manager numbers being posted here clearly demonstrate that.

it think its clear now that the arena can be most successful if the city isnt obliged to subsidize a private hockey team's operating losses.

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06-02-2013, 09:15 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post

I brought this up only to illustrate that Atlanta also falls into the category of "We won't leave until we are told to leave." Hypothetically, after ASG threw the Thrashers at Bettman, if Atlanta City Gov't had called Gary and said "We guarantee a new 17000 seat facility in 2 years. All income yours." What would have happened? I think Bettman would have found a way to hang around for the 2 years. Of course, Atlanta didn't do that, and shouldn't have done that. But in not doing that, THEY gave NHL room to leave (Of course, the greatest 'permission' to leave came from ASG).
The NHL may have asked a sympathetic councilman in Atlanta what the chances were of them building them arena. If, as expected, he/she said there was 0% chance of it passing, they weren't going to officially ask. They weren't going to ask because it wouldn't have been successful, and they would have received negative press because of it.

Quote:
And, the irony. JimA. Your question is "Why would Atlanta need a 2nd large arena?" We can also ask "Why did the Phoenix area need a 2nd large arena?" Answer: they didn't. Your question exactly shows the error in judgment of Glendale in building the job.
I agree. Phoenix wouldn't need a second arena unless US Airways Center was over-flowing with events and tenants.

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06-02-2013, 09:40 AM
  #33
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Can I go way back to the far archives and ask a question?

If Glendale had never built the job, what would have happened? In other words, no arena in Scottsdale, no arena in Glendale, what happens?

Any ideas? I am assuming it would have been before there was any chance of a return to Winnipeg, so where would they have gone?

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06-02-2013, 10:12 AM
  #34
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I am wondering why the NHLPA is not mad at Gary Bettman and the NHL for sticking to Glendale for so long as a relocation would instantly mean for HHR for the players. Can you explain me their silence? I'm puzzled.

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06-02-2013, 10:35 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
Can I go way back to the far archives and ask a question?

If Glendale had never built the job, what would have happened? In other words, no arena in Scottsdale, no arena in Glendale, what happens?

Any ideas? I am assuming it would have been before there was any chance of a return to Winnipeg, so where would they have gone?
From what I recall, there was a plan to move them to Portland. I believe Paul Allen at the time was interested in buying the Coyotes and moving them to the Rose Garden.

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06-02-2013, 10:38 AM
  #36
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I am wondering why the NHLPA is not mad at Gary Bettman and the NHL for sticking to Glendale for so long as a relocation would instantly mean for HHR for the players. Can you explain me their silence? I'm puzzled.
Aren't we all! The silence is deafening. Really makes me think something is gonna happen soon..

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06-02-2013, 10:44 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Slashers98 View Post
I am wondering why the NHLPA is not mad at Gary Bettman and the NHL for sticking to Glendale for so long as a relocation would instantly mean for HHR for the players. Can you explain me their silence? I'm puzzled.
They may have privately said something. They wouldn't say anything publicly, that would be bad press. About the only thing they could say publicly is "We would like the ownership situation in Phoenix to be resolved as soon as possible for our players and the fans."


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06-02-2013, 10:52 AM
  #38
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Aren't we all! The silence is deafening. Really makes me think something is gonna happen soon..
It was THE big mystery of the last CBA negotiation. We don't know what the PA really know and are keeping quiet about. The NHL likely informed the PA in private of how many franchises are in peril and how many landing spot (1) are really ready. We come back to juggling live grenades you always need a safe spot to dispose of one.


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06-02-2013, 11:17 AM
  #39
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From what I recall, there was a plan to move them to Portland. I believe Paul Allen at the time was interested in buying the Coyotes and moving them to the Rose Garden.
To quote:

"Paul Allen, the computer software billionaire who owns the Portland Trail Blazers of the National Basketball Association, is believed to be interested in bringing an N.H.L. franchise to that city.

Should Ellman's group not be able to close a deal with Burke, it would forfeit nearly $20 million in nonrefundable payments it has already made.

Burke could then turn around and sell the Coyotes to Allen for much more than the $87.5 million that Ellman's group is still trying to raise for the purchase.

From the league's point of view, there are two problems with Burke selling the Coyotes to Allen (with whom, people in the Burke camp insist, the Coyotes' owner has never had any talks regarding the team).

First, Bettman wants the franchise to remain in Arizona, especially after voters in Scottsdale approved a measure in a referendum more than a year ago to clear the way for a new arena [at the Los Arcos site - ed.] for the Coyotes. The team currently plays in Phoenix at the America West Arena, which was built for basketball and offers poor sightlines for hockey at one end of the rink.

Second, Bettman wants to spare Gretzky, the most recognizable player in the history of the league, further embarrassment regarding missed deadlines.

To compound Ellman's problems, the French bank that was underwriting the $60 million loan decided to make the loan for $40 million, most likely because Ellman has been having so much trouble recruiting investors for his ownership group."

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2001/01/08/sp...e-rangers.html

Hmmm...where have we heard all of this before...

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06-02-2013, 11:49 AM
  #40
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It was THE big mystery of the last CBA negotiation. It resume to this we don't know what the PA really know and are keeping quiet about. The NHL likely informed the PA in private of how many franchises are in peril and how many landing spot (1) are really ready. We come back to juggling live grenades you always need a safe spot to dispose of one.
I know this is a little o.t., but just how many other teams are in trouble? NYI are moving to Brooklyn, so who else is there? Besides, Seattle will be (should be) ready in a few years. Seems to me the Coyote granade looks like it is about to blow up unless they throw it and throw it now to QC. Any other team in trouble, can wait for Seattle/Hamilton/Portland/OKC/Hartford to get their act together one would think. Then again, nothing in this whole ordeal has made an inkling of sense so who knows? Bettman is the only one and he isn't talking.

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06-02-2013, 12:02 PM
  #41
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Aren't we all! The silence is deafening. Really makes me think something is gonna happen soon..
Yes but you are new here, my friend. If the silence is deafening, these threads are blinding in their length and repetitiveness. It has gone on F.O.R.E.V.E.R. - I dropped out over a year ago.

Anyway, please keep the posts short and sweet, guys, so I can do a drive by and know what is going on.


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06-02-2013, 12:03 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by CrazyMonkey1208 View Post
I know this is a little o.t., but just how many other teams are in trouble? NYI are moving to Brooklyn, so who else is there? Besides, Seattle will be (should be) ready in a few years. Seems to me the Coyote granade looks like it is about to blow up unless they throw it and throw it now to QC. Any other team in trouble, can wait for Seattle/Hamilton/Portland/OKC/Hartford to get their act together one would think. Then again, nothing in this whole ordeal has made an inkling of sense so who knows? Bettman is the only one and he isn't talking.
More like a Q-bomb, who is going to get it across the goal line before it goes off...

http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/video/238422/Mouse-That-Roared-The-Movie-Clip-Football.html

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06-02-2013, 12:08 PM
  #43
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Yes but you are new here, my friend. If the silence is deafening, these threads are blinding in their length and repetitiveness. It has gone on F.O.R.E.V.E.R. - I dropped out over a year ago.

Anyway, please keep the posts short and sweet, guys, so I can do a drive by and know what is going on.

LOL Most of my posts are from when Hulsizer was trying to buy the team. Maybe the last 15 are from the past week. I got sick of it, left, and sucked back in. I get the feeling*I could leave and come back in 5 years, and this will still be going on.

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06-02-2013, 12:21 PM
  #44
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But, one must admit that the price on the team if it stays in Glendale is not out of line.
What are you suggesting MNN, that $170M for the Coyotes where is as is isnt "out of line"?. You cant be serious? If one were to apply basic valuations & metrics to the franchise, including a rough draft business plan as to what it would cost absent anything egregious in terms of largesse from the City to turn things around, some would argue its actual value is less than zero, though to me a reasonable price tag would be about $55-65M.

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If Glendale had never built the job, what would have happened? In other words, no arena in Scottsdale, no arena in Glendale, what happens?
They wouldve gone bust, but before that happened, sold for Relocation and likely at a loss in comparison to what Burke & Gluckstern paid for the Jets combined with what they'd sunk into the team. The then AWA & now US Airways is a wholly unsuitable facility for NHL hockey, the Lease they had with Colangelo a one way ticket out of town.

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06-02-2013, 12:21 PM
  #45
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Yes but you are new here, my friend. If the silence is deafening, these threads are blinding in their length and repetitiveness. It has gone on F.O.R.E.V.E.R. - I dropped out over a year ago.

Anyway, please keep the posts short and sweet, guys, so I can do a drive by and know what is going on.

Yep, I'm with you on this. I am sticking around until tuesday to see what is going on. If nothing happens I might stick around for another fortnight, just to make sure the NHL stays put for another year of this madness then I'll log off for 11months.


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06-02-2013, 12:22 PM
  #46
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Yes but you are new here, my friend. If the silence is deafening, these threads are blinding in their length and repetitiveness. It has gone on F.O.R.E.V.E.R. - I dropped out over a year ago.
Anyway, please keep the posts short and sweet, guys, so I can do a drive by and know what is going on.

By the very fact that you are here looking for updates, means that you have never really "dropped out".

"You can check out anytime you want - but you can never leave"

You may not post as much, you may just check in once and a while, but the fact is ... you still do. It's like having an addiction to something. You can stop it, you can get clean, but it never actually leaves you, ever. It's always there calling you back in... Come back Kevy, come back Kevy...... and here you are.

Hey I'm not suggesting you go away, not at all, you are more than welcome to stay. Just accept its ( this thread ) now a part of your life... just don't let it control you.

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06-02-2013, 12:26 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
Can I go way back to the far archives and ask a question?

If Glendale had never built the job, what would have happened? In other words, no arena in Scottsdale, no arena in Glendale, what happens?

Any ideas? I am assuming it would have been before there was any chance of a return to Winnipeg, so where would they have gone?
It would have been interesting to see what the NHL would have done... fold them? Who knows.

But, because of what happened to Winnipeg, Quebec, Hartford, I think that was a wakeup call for Bettman to always make sure you have a plan B or a landing spot somewhere, because you never know when you might need it.

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06-02-2013, 12:31 PM
  #48
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The Coyotes are like a 30 year old still living with Mom & Dad.(Glendale) As long as they feed him/her and give them a place to sleep, the lazy SOB will stick around. But once they inform them they will now be charged room and board and do some chores, The "kid" is out the door.

Well Glendale (Mon & Dad) are going to say enough is enough grow up and get on your way to Quebec.

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06-02-2013, 12:39 PM
  #49
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What are you suggesting MNN, that $170M for the Coyotes where is as is isnt "out of line"?. You cant be serious? If one were to apply basic valuations & metrics to the franchise, including a rough draft business plan as to what it would cost absent anything egregious in terms of largesse from the City to turn things around, some would argue its actual value is less than zero, though to me a reasonable price tag would be .
170 is way out of line. I am thinking of 85M loan from the league with promises of revenue sharing as being a discount. But I will admit I don't understand how the loan and the revenue sharing will actually work. Someone fill me on if they want.

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06-02-2013, 01:17 PM
  #50
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It would have been interesting to see what the NHL would have done... fold them? Who knows.
They'd have sold them for Relo but instead approved Ellmans entirely leveraged buyout, enabled yet another Grifter to essentially hi-jack the leagues larger interests in actually developing hockey & the NHL brand in the market with a complimentary rather than all consuming real estate development. Left to his own devices without any oversite whatsoever, you'd have thought the NHL wouldve smelled a Rat in the over-extended purchase agreement in acquiring the Coyotes in the first place, then secondly when he refused to provide Scottsdale with his financials. He needed a willing municipality that would go for the Goblet without asking for a whole lot in the way of bona-fides'. "Trust me". Well, Glendale did just that, Credit-Suisse & others, Moyes of course, a bit of a Rounder himself, and so here we are. If assigning blame, I lay it directly at the NHL's feet, who in planting the seed in Phoenix in the first place owed it to the game, the people of Arizona & to the other 29 teams to play it straight, up-front, conscientiously & responsibly work with that franchise in order to insure its success & precisely avoid such a massive unravelling of what should've been an entirely successful entry into the 7th largest market in the US.

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