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Did Trevor Timmins learn from his mistakes?

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06-03-2013, 05:34 PM
  #1
HabsProspectsExpert
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Did Trevor Timmins learn from his mistakes?

First and foremost, I want to make it clear that I am a big fan of Timmins and I believe he is one of the best chief scouts in the league.
However, I believe he made a slight miss evaluation on prospects playing in college leagues (NCAA, USHL, BCHL and comparable leagues). In fact, he overrated them, particularly in comparison with CHL (LHJMQ-WHL-OHL) prospects. Those missed evaluations made him repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Here, I am comparing players coming from the CHL and players coming from college leagues that were drafted between round 3 to 7. Comparing the two first rounds was irrelevant, because those players had enough exposure to be evaluated properly, CHL players and USA college players can be compared directly in U17 and U18 tournaments. In fact, we have to give Timmins credits for his selections of college leagues players with top picks, except the bust that was Fischer he was able to get McDonagh, Pacioretty, Kristo and Tinordi.
You will see that with our late round picks, the rate of relative success is convincingly contrasting between CHL players and college leagues players.


2005-2011
NCAA-USHL-BCHL
3rd (79) - Mac Bennett (D)
3rd (86) - Steve Quailer (F)
4th (97) - Josiah Didier (D)
4th (113) - Mark MacMillan (F)
5th (133) - Joe Stejskal (D)
5th (142) - Andrew Conboy (F)
6th (169) - Dustin Walsh (F)
7th (192) - Scott Kishel (D)
7th (198) - Colin Sullivan (D)
7th (199) - Mike Cichy (F)
7th (229) - Philippe Paquet (D)
7th (206) - Patrick Johnson (F)
Maybe Bennett and ...? could play at least a game in the NHL; 1.5/12
Result: 12,5%

CHL:
3rd (65) - Olivier Fortier (F)
3rd (66) - Ryan White (F)
3rd (73) - Yannick Weber (D)
4th (108) - Olivier Archambault (F)
4th (117) - Morgan Ellis (D)
5th (130) - Mathieu Aubin (F)
5th (138) - Darren Dietz (D)
5th (139) - Gabriel Dumont (F)
5th (147) - Brendon Gallagher (F)
6th (190) - Matt D'Agostini (F)
7th (199) - Cameron Cepek (D)
White, Weber, Dumont, D'Agostini and Gallagher have already played in the NHL, and probably at least one between Ellis and Dietz will play in the NHL; 6/11
Result: 54,5%

Many wasted picks... Teams that are active signing graduated players from the NCAA have arguably better success then us with our College/NCAA players.
Also, I just want to add that drafting more European players with our late rounds pick could have also been an interesting possibility instead.
In the 2012 draft, Trevor Timmins seemed to have learned from his mistakes selecting no player from college league with his lower picks. He picked Bozon(3rd), Vail(4th), Hudon(5th) and Nystrom(6th). With Bozon's incredible season and Hudon being able to make team Canada U20 with an other year of eligibility remaining, Timmins' lower picks in the 2012 draft is among his best selections since he has been hired.

Discuss!


* By the way, I already know that it is normal for NCAA players to have slower development and that they are more 7th picks in the NCAA side's . But still... the gap is still considerable.


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06-03-2013, 05:49 PM
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Btw, I already know that it is normal for NCAA players to have slower development and that they are more 7th picks in the NCAA side's . But still... the gap is still considerable.

Just getting ready for critic :-P


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06-03-2013, 06:10 PM
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I'm not 100% sure, but when drafting college player, you have there rights, and don't have to sign them for more time than drafting guys out of the CHL, so you have more time to see if they are worth given a contact to. And seeing how guys from later rounds are probaly guys that need to work on their game, drafting guys you have more time with could be a factor in their decision making.

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06-03-2013, 06:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
I'm not 100% sure, but when drafting college player, you have there rights, and don't have to sign them for more time than drafting guys out of the CHL, so you have more time to see if they are worth given a contact to. And seeing how guys from later rounds are probaly guys that need to work on their game, drafting guys you have more time with could be a factor in their decision making.
Yes good point. But finally, no very late round picks work out for Timmins in that matter. I personally think that 3rd-5th rounds should be CHL players, you can still have 1 point per game players at this stage. And in the 6th-7th rounds you should try for European players and/or goalie. Many goalies have been taken in the very late rounds (Halak, Lindback, Rinne, Etc)

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06-03-2013, 06:32 PM
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I still think it has a lot to do with the GM vision of things. Last draft, Bergevin took over, bang, not even one USHL or College prospect. Not saying things will stay that way, but we've already seen that Bergevin is much more proactive than Gainey/Gauthier ever were with prospect signings. Bergevin wants a short term approach, while with Gainey/Gauthier, it was all about long term... and, Timmins, most of the time, didn't have the luxury to have high picks, so he tried to foresee potential in some US prospects, most of them failing to live up to potential. This year, there's a lot of big US kids that may be interesting. I'm pretty sure he'll get 1 or 2 of them, and don't forget, there's a development team now, so things may turn around quickly (I believe that)

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06-03-2013, 06:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Vasculio View Post
I still think it has a lot to do with the GM vision of things. Last draft, Bergevin took over, bang, not even one USHL or College prospect. Not saying things will stay that way, but we've already seen that Bergevin is much more proactive than Gainey/Gauthier ever were with prospect signings. Bergevin wants a short term approach, while with Gainey/Gauthier, it was all about long term... and, Timmins, most of the time, didn't have the luxury to have high picks, so he tried to foresee potential in some US prospects, most of them failing to live up to potential. This year, there's a lot of big US kids that may be interesting. I'm pretty sure he'll get 1 or 2 of them, and don't forget, there's a development team now, so things may turn around quickly (I believe that)
Yes absolutely, the development team could have a considerable impact on our slow developing NCAA prospects.

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06-03-2013, 11:17 PM
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This analysis is incomplete and flawed, at best.

Teams can only have 50 players at a time under contract. Teams must decide to sign a CHL player when within two years (if I'm not mistaken) of being drafted otherwise they have to go back in the draft. College players can wait much, much longer. This allows teams to better evaluate this prospect on the longer term, therefore minimizing the risk of signing busts to pro contracts. If a team drafted all CHL prospects, they'd run out of contracts...

The names mentioned above are not done their development. This analysis should be done in a few years, once we know what the MacMillan and company have done of their career.

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06-03-2013, 11:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vasculio View Post
I still think it has a lot to do with the GM vision of things. Last draft, Bergevin took over, bang, not even one USHL or College prospect. Not saying things will stay that way, but we've already seen that Bergevin is much more proactive than Gainey/Gauthier ever were with prospect signings. Bergevin wants a short term approach, while with Gainey/Gauthier, it was all about long term... and, Timmins, most of the time, didn't have the luxury to have high picks, so he tried to foresee potential in some US prospects, most of them failing to live up to potential. This year, there's a lot of big US kids that may be interesting. I'm pretty sure he'll get 1 or 2 of them, and don't forget, there's a development team now, so things may turn around quickly (I believe that)
Roll out the excuses, at no point will Timmins ever be blamed for anything. I am sure if he ever screws up he will have had vertigo at some point so he will have that covered too.

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06-03-2013, 11:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsterix View Post
This analysis is incomplete and flawed, at best.

Teams can only have 50 players at a time under contract. Teams must decide to sign a CHL player when within two years (if I'm not mistaken) of being drafted otherwise they have to go back in the draft. College players can wait much, much longer. This allows teams to better evaluate this prospect on the longer term, therefore minimizing the risk of signing busts to pro contracts. If a team drafted all CHL prospects, they'd run out of contracts...

The names mentioned above are not done their development. This analysis should be done in a few years, once we know what the MacMillan and company have done of their career.
I might be overconfident, but I think that my evaluation of 1.5 on 12 NCAA players making the NHL is pretty accurate, come back in 3 years and tell me if I'm wrong. I think you didn't take the time to analyse?; we can already eliminate many of them. Let's see...

3rd (79) - Mac Bennett (D) = Legit good chances
3rd (86) - Steve Quailer (F) = 10% chance. Disappointing in the AHL. Probably won't renew his contract.
4th (97) - Josiah Didier (D) = 15% chance
4th (113) - Mark MacMillan (F) = 30% chance
6th (169) - Dustin Walsh (F) = 25% chance
7th (198) - Colin Sullivan (D) = 4% chance
7th (199) - Mike Cichy (F) = 3% chance
___
5th (133) - Joe Stejskal (D) = 0%, probably wont be resign
5th (142) - Andrew Conboy (F) = 0%, already out
7th (192) - Scott Kishel (D) = 0%, didn't sign
7th (229) - Philippe Paquet (D) = 0%, didn't sign
7th (206) - Patrick Johnson (F) = 0%, didn't sign, retire

Let's be serious, you really think that this group of players can become better than Gallagher, White, Weber, Dumont, D'Agostini, Ellis and Dietz?

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06-04-2013, 12:35 AM
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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
Roll out the excuses, at no point will Timmins ever be blamed for anything. I am sure if he ever screws up he will have had vertigo at some point so he will have that covered too.
It is a fact that Timmins is one of the best in the business.....the numbers strongly back this fact.

Anyone who thinks that he has done a poor job simply doesn't have a clue what they are talking about.

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06-04-2013, 12:47 AM
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David Fischer! Now playing in the Bundesliga. 2nd division in Germany lol. Damn it. What a waste.

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06-04-2013, 12:59 AM
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Most of those college picks are 7th rounders, haha. Timmins has only had the luxury of us having a real high pick twice.

The drafts where we have most of our picks, he usually does a great job with. How many 2nd and 3rd rounders has he been deprived over the recent years?

Wasn't there a thread recently showing that he has one of the best batting averages in the league? I think TT has done an amazing job with what he's been given.

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06-04-2013, 04:57 AM
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When you take out the 7th rounders the NCAA and CHL rates aren't that different(since it's 100% bust rate for our 7th rounders). We've only had three 7th round picks become true NHLers going back to 1986. Kostitsyn, Robidas and Odelein. Also as others have stated you can't sign 7 prospects a year realistically and stay under the 50 contract limit. That's why you go for longshots in the late rounds or NCAA guys who have four-five years to develop and only require a 2 year ELC. The difference between us and other teams are other teams go for those longshot NCAA guys in the 4th/5th rounds and go for overage/limited ice time Europeans with their 6th/7th rounders. You have to look at a draft on the whole and not just nitpick 2-3 late rounds and say "why is our scout retarded?".

Look at Nashville getting Lindback 7th round in 2008. They took two absolute "ncaa busts" in the 5th/6th rounds before taking a chance on a European overager. It's a tad silly in retrospect to say we should have taken everyone who became an NHLer. Omg why they take european Torp 6th round should have taken an NCAA guy Nick Bonino. Omg why they take Stejskal and Conboy should have traded up and taken Jamie Benn. etc etc

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06-04-2013, 05:14 AM
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He sure learned not to draft midgets in the 5th round right?

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06-04-2013, 06:39 AM
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Hindsight sure is a beautiful thing.

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06-04-2013, 07:36 AM
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He stayed away from the NCAA last year, let's see what he does this year before saying he is definitely not going back down that road again.

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06-04-2013, 07:59 AM
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Originally Posted by HabsProspectsExpert View Post
I might be overconfident, but I think that my evaluation of 1.5 on 12 NCAA players making the NHL is pretty accurate, come back in 3 years and tell me if I'm wrong. I think you didn't take the time to analyse?; we can already eliminate many of them. Let's see...

3rd (79) - Mac Bennett (D) = Legit good chances
3rd (86) - Steve Quailer (F) = 10% chance. Disappointing in the AHL. Probably won't renew his contract.
4th (97) - Josiah Didier (D) = 15% chance
4th (113) - Mark MacMillan (F) = 30% chance
6th (169) - Dustin Walsh (F) = 25% chance
7th (198) - Colin Sullivan (D) = 4% chance
7th (199) - Mike Cichy (F) = 3% chance
___
5th (133) - Joe Stejskal (D) = 0%, probably wont be resign
5th (142) - Andrew Conboy (F) = 0%, already out
7th (192) - Scott Kishel (D) = 0%, didn't sign
7th (229) - Philippe Paquet (D) = 0%, didn't sign
7th (206) - Patrick Johnson (F) = 0%, didn't sign, retire

Let's be serious, you really think that this group of players can become better than Gallagher, White, Weber, Dumont, D'Agostini, Ellis and Dietz?
Once again, totally incomplete... if all of those guys were from the CHL as you suggest, they'd have to be signed by now. Remember, teams are allowed 50 contracts...

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06-04-2013, 09:02 AM
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Hindsight sure is a beautiful thing.
No kidding....

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06-04-2013, 09:29 AM
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Do you guys honestly believe that Timmins was given carte blanche under the goat's watch? He micromanaged everything I have a hard time believing that all those bad picks were on Timmins alone.

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06-04-2013, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Vasculio View Post
I still think it has a lot to do with the GM vision of things. Last draft, Bergevin took over, bang, not even one USHL or College prospect. Not saying things will stay that way, but we've already seen that Bergevin is much more proactive than Gainey/Gauthier ever were with prospect signings. Bergevin wants a short term approach, while with Gainey/Gauthier, it was all about long term... and, Timmins, most of the time, didn't have the luxury to have high picks, so he tried to foresee potential in some US prospects, most of them failing to live up to potential. This year, there's a lot of big US kids that may be interesting. I'm pretty sure he'll get 1 or 2 of them, and don't forget, there's a development team now, so things may turn around quickly (I believe that)
And Bergevin came from a team that won the Cup on the back of Toews, Kane, Ladd, Seabrook, Keith, Bolland, Sharp, etc. The nucleus was CHL products bolstered by some strong Europeans.

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06-04-2013, 09:49 AM
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Originally Posted by HabsProspectsExpert View Post
Btw, I already know that it is normal for NCAA players to have slower development and that they are more 7th picks in the NCAA side's . But still... the gap is still considerable.

Just getting ready for critic :-P
From that list you posted, it looks like Timmins has wasted some picks in the 7th round but since it's the 7th round it's smart to take a gamble on players you can get more time to look at.

Quote:
Originally Posted by habs03 View Post
I'm not 100% sure, but when drafting college player, you have there rights, and don't have to sign them for more time than drafting guys out of the CHL, so you have more time to see if they are worth given a contact to. And seeing how guys from later rounds are probaly guys that need to work on their game, drafting guys you have more time with could be a factor in their decision making.
correct, CHL is 2 years after, NCAA is 4 years and could be more if they don't go directly to the NCAA although that opens another can of worms.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HabsProspectsExpert View Post
Yes good point. But finally, no very late round picks work out for Timmins in that matter. I personally think that 3rd-5th rounds should be CHL players, you can still have 1 point per game players at this stage. And in the 6th-7th rounds you should try for European players and/or goalie. Many goalies have been taken in the very late rounds (Halak, Lindback, Rinne, Etc)
Seems crazy to me to think that 3rd-5th rounds should be CHL players. Timmins should be picking the best players, no matter what no matter where they are from imo. I just don't understand the logic to say so and so rounds need to be from this league and so and so rounds need to be from other leagues.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HabsProspectsExpert View Post
I might be overconfident, but I think that my evaluation of 1.5 on 12 NCAA players making the NHL is pretty accurate, come back in 3 years and tell me if I'm wrong. I think you didn't take the time to analyse?; we can already eliminate many of them. Let's see...

3rd (79) - Mac Bennett (D) = Legit good chances
3rd (86) - Steve Quailer (F) = 10% chance. Disappointing in the AHL. Probably won't renew his contract.
4th (97) - Josiah Didier (D) = 15% chance
4th (113) - Mark MacMillan (F) = 30% chance
6th (169) - Dustin Walsh (F) = 25% chance
7th (198) - Colin Sullivan (D) = 4% chance
7th (199) - Mike Cichy (F) = 3% chance
___
5th (133) - Joe Stejskal (D) = 0%, probably wont be resign
5th (142) - Andrew Conboy (F) = 0%, already out
7th (192) - Scott Kishel (D) = 0%, didn't sign
7th (229) - Philippe Paquet (D) = 0%, didn't sign
7th (206) - Patrick Johnson (F) = 0%, didn't sign, retire

Let's be serious, you really think that this group of players can become better than Gallagher, White, Weber, Dumont, D'Agostini, Ellis and Dietz?
Didier has a much, much better shot at the NHL then Walsh imo. It's still early for Didier but I would bet he sees time in the NHL. MacMillan as well. But I don't see why the need to compare how a bunch of mostly 6th/7th round NCAA picks vs CHL picks. For me it should just be how can each pick help the team, granted not all will of course, no matter what league they are from.

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06-04-2013, 10:02 AM
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And Bergevin came from a team that won the Cup on the back of Toews, Kane, Ladd, Seabrook, Keith, Bolland, Sharp, etc. The nucleus was CHL products bolstered by some strong Europeans.
For what it's worth, Toews, Sharp, Keith were among those drafted out of college (USHL/NCAA).

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06-04-2013, 10:04 AM
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If we are to seriously consider this hypothesis, we need comparative numbers from other teams in the later rounds.

We are only looking at 1 set of data, but we have no other numbers to judge the quality of Timmins' drafting from the college/USHL ranks.

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06-04-2013, 11:20 AM
  #24
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Do you guys honestly believe that Timmins was given carte blanche under the goat's watch? He micromanaged everything I have a hard time believing that all those bad picks were on Timmins alone.
There's no way. Wasn't PG and A GM with BG? Weren't they the ones that wanted AK instead. He was the Director of Professional Scouting then so idk if he has a say in amateur scouting.

When he took over as GM in 2010. Those picks (2010, 2011) were Tinordi, Beaulieu, I think Kristo as well and i'm missing some others. TT is the man. Anyone else who says otherwise is clearly delusional.

As for 2003-2010, BG probably had more of a push for CP31 in 2005, AK46 most likely in 2003 and in 2006 BG probably pushed for a defenseman who wasn't the BPA. 2007 was gold in McD, Patches, and Subban in the 2nd round which, IMO i think was all TT probably after telling Gainey "we did it your way before, let me have at it now, i'll get you some great talent." Lo behold, he has a top 4 defenseman, a top 6 power forward, and a top 5 NHL defenseman from those first 2 rounds.

TT FOR GM!

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06-04-2013, 12:59 PM
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Tim Wallach
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For what it's worth, Toews, Sharp, Keith were among those drafted out of college (USHL/NCAA).
I knew Toews was, but for some reason was thinking Keith was CHL. Still, a backbone from the CHL. I'm sure Bergevin saw that.

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