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2013 Draft Thread IV–June 30 3pm–8 16 38 52 69 129 130 143 159 189–Draft Primer in OP

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Old
06-05-2013, 08:15 PM
  #176
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Good. He's a guy with the sort of game Buffalo fans would (mostly) enjoy. I wouldn't mind him in the mid-rounds at all.
I bet he's gone before #52

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06-05-2013, 08:30 PM
  #177
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I bet he's gone before #52
Could be. Good frame, good away from the puck, athletic family, an edge to his game? Some teams put a premium on that sort of "pro style" forward. I'm sure they've seen him plenty with keeping tabs on Catenacci too.

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06-05-2013, 08:44 PM
  #178
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I bet he's gone before #52
But might make it to 38...

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06-05-2013, 08:54 PM
  #179
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Could be. Good frame, good away from the puck, athletic family, an edge to his game? Some teams put a premium on that sort of "pro style" forward. I'm sure they've seen him plenty with keeping tabs on Catenacci too.
Im all over him at 38

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06-05-2013, 09:04 PM
  #180
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Im all over him at 38
You know some times I really, really don't like the fact that i agree with you 90% of the time. Either we are the same morons or I'm your sock puppet. Neither really make me happy.

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06-05-2013, 09:10 PM
  #181
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Seriously, mind you I'm 2/3 into a growler of southern tier oaked unearthly, love pub trivia, get RoR, Erne at 16, Nast's as 2a. Get off my brainwave! You have all my supposedly bad opinions.

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06-05-2013, 09:12 PM
  #182
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Im all over him at 38
Here's a draft day hypothetical for you then -- both Nastasiuk and Carrier are there at 38. Who do you take?


Spoil:
I take Carrier but it is something to think about.

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06-05-2013, 09:26 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by kenfury View Post
Seriously, mind you I'm 2/3 into a growler of southern tier oaked unearthly, love pub trivia, get RoR, Erne at 16, Nast's as 2a. Get off my brainwave! You have all my supposedly bad opinions.
southern tier makes a good coffee stout

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06-05-2013, 09:33 PM
  #184
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Here's a draft day hypothetical for you then -- both Nastasiuk and Carrier are there at 38. Who do you take?


Spoil:
I take Carrier but it is something to think about.
you did that on purpose

two of my favorite late 1st/early 2nd range prospects

I take Carrier... i think he's the most underrated player in this draft... and if it wasn't for injuries combine with playing on a terrible CBSE team we'd be discussing whether we should use the #8 on him.... or if we should trade down a bit... or if we should risk him lasting until #16.

But I don't think Carrier will last until 38... i think he'll go somewhere in the 20s

but what do I know... Button doesn't even have him ranked in his top 75

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06-05-2013, 09:45 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
Here's a draft day hypothetical for you then -- both Nastasiuk and Carrier are there at 38. Who do you take?


Spoil:
I take Carrier but it is something to think about.
Trade down from 16 to pick up an extra 2nd round pick and take both.

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06-05-2013, 09:50 PM
  #186
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you did that on purpose

two of my favorite late 1st/early 2nd range prospects

I take Carrier... i think he's the most underrated player in this draft... and if it wasn't for injuries combine with playing on a terrible CBSE team we'd be discussing whether we should use the #8 on him.... or if we should trade down a bit... or if we should risk him lasting until #16.

But I don't think Carrier will last until 38... i think he'll go somewhere in the 20s

but what do I know... Button doesn't even have him ranked in his top 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs View Post
Trade down from 16 to pick up an extra 2nd round pick and take both.
Eh, I don't know if they both make it into the late 30's. I could see 'em both going before 38.

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06-05-2013, 10:59 PM
  #187
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Could be. Good frame, good away from the puck, athletic family, an edge to his game? Some teams put a premium on that sort of "pro style" forward. I'm sure they've seen him plenty with keeping tabs on Catenacci too.
Well, speaking of eligibles who've played with our players and prospects (in past and current years), the full list is something like:
  • Armia - Finland U20 (WJC-20): Barkov, Lehkonen, Ristolainen.
  • Austin - Belleville (OHL): Subban.
  • Catenacci - Owen Sound (OHL): Bigras, Nastasiuk.
  • Foligno - Sudbury (OHL): Campagna, Corbett, Silk.
  • Gauthier-Leduc - Rimouski (QMJHL): Desrosiers, Morin.
  • Girgensons - Dubuque (USHL): Butcher, Downing; Latvia U20 (WJC-20): Jevpalovs, Lipsbergs.
  • Grigorenko - Quebec (QMJHL): Duclair, Erne, Etchegary, Sorensen; Russia U20 (WJC-20): Nichushkin, Slepyshev.
  • Jacobs - Seattle (WHL): Hauf, Honey, Theodore; Prince George (WHL): McNulty.
  • Kea - Saginaw (OHL): Lodge, Moutrey.
  • Larsson - Brynäs (SEL): Lindholm.
  • Lieuwen - Kootenay (WHL): Descheneau.
  • Makarov - Russia U20 (WJC-20): Nichushkin, Slepyshev.
  • Parker - Prince Albert (WHL): Morrissey.
  • Peterson - Cedar Rapids (USHL): Olsson.
  • Pysyk - Edmonton (WHL): Jarry, Lazar.
  • Ullmark - Modo J20 (SEL): Hagg.
Obviously, some are more notable than others since they shared lines/pairings (ie. Grigorenko w/Erne and Sorensen; Kea w/Moutrey), while others were just a mere handful of games together (ie. Parker and Morrissey; Girgensons and Butcher).

***

Continuing with the Nastasiuk chatter, and adding Moutrey, here's Brock's take at OHL Prospects:
Quote:
8. Zach Nastasiuk - Forward - Owen Sound Attack
Zach Nasty has been a favourite of mine since he debuted in the OHL last season. The work ethic he brings to the ice makes him a very valuable player for the Attack (and endures him to fans). Early in the season, he excelled in a checking role for Owen Sound; killing penalties, forcing turnovers off the forecheck, and crashing the net for scoring chances. He was also seeing powerplay time as a net presence; looking for deflections and screens. As the season went on, he started looking more and more confident with the puck and began creating his own scoring chances by driving hard to the net with possession. He also got more confidence in using his shot and was more patient with the puck in the cycle. By the end of the season and into the playoffs, I felt like Nastasiuk was possibly Owen Sound's top offensive player, or at least in the same conversation as Dan Catenacci. In his final 22 games (including the playoffs), he had 10 goals, and 12 assists (a ppg). He then went off to the Under 18's where he put in a solid performance, scoring 2 goals and adding 2 assists. I've had a few people ask me about Nastasiuk's late season rapid rise up the rankings. I think it probably has to do with a change in the perception of Nastasiuk's potential. I think some people probably viewed Nastasiuk as a nice checking prospect early on in the season, but when his offensive game really started to blossom, it caused a shift in that perception. I see him as a comparable player to the Rangers' Ryan Callahan and I'd have to think many teams would be happy to nab that kind of player in the late first/early 2nd.
Quote:
16. Nick Moutrey - Forward - Saginaw Spirit
Moutrey hasn't received a ton of recognition this year, but I know there are some who feel that he's actually a better pro prospect than teammate Jimmy Lodge. He certainly has a tantalizing skill package. Moutrey is 6'3, 208lbs and plays a power/skill game. I do see some inconsistency in his power game though. At times, I feel like he's not aggressive enough with the puck. A guy his size should be looking to create by driving hard to the net, but he's too often kept to the outside, where he circles, looking pass first. There are times when he takes over shifts thanks to his wall work and puck possession skill, but the power part of his game requires an injection of confidence. I'd also like to see him become more consistently physical. All that said, I think he's a terrific prospect. He's got pretty good vision on the ice, especially for a big guy and he's a hard worker in the offensive end. I could see him being a very difficult player to contain eventually and he's certainly got enough skill to play a top 6 role at the next level, if everything progresses the way it should. There's probably an argument to be made that he's closed ground on the likes of Jason Dickinson and Ryan Kujawinski as a prospect for this draft (thus their close ranking on my list).

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06-06-2013, 03:51 AM
  #188
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DdD: Volume 3 - Darnell Nurse

From now until the draft, I will be analyzing a handful of the top draft-eligible defensemen for this upcoming draft. I've collected tons of full games (where I can), highlights, scouting reports, articles, and everything relevant, and picking them apart and going over them with a fine-toothed comb. Feel free to pass right over the writeups, or read and comment on my observations.

___________________________________

Volume 3

Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste. Marie

ISS: 6th | CS: 4th (NA) | THN: 8th

I tried extremely hard to dig deep into the entire arsenal and skill set, trying to unearth anything positive or negative that might not have already been pointed out ad nauseum about Darnell. I was unable to get much in addition to what has already been noted.

There is a ton going on with him as a prospect. A big, fluid defenseman with a loveable physical side, he seems most impressive between the ears. Whether it is a positional dissection, a strategic dissection, or a skills analysis, he passes the test with flying colors. Whether or not he was coached up with regards to handling himself in the media and public eye is besides the point: he is a fantastic kid who says all the right things and backs it up with a versatile game that screams high-end shutdown potential with offensive upside.

Pros: Plays with noticeable smarts at the defenseman's position. A good decision maker with a knack for being in the right place. Leads by example, playing the right way and staying disciplined mentally; also appears to be a vocal leader. He's versatile, projecting to be a key cog on PK units in the pros, and as he grows and matures some more physically, I would expect him to add to his 6'5 frame weight-wise. He fights, he hits, and his developmental track is remarkable. Played in every regular season game, averaged over 30 minutes a night, and got better as the season went on, indicating durability and coachability to date. I like how he tracks his big hits as well - obviously - and his bodying ability is clearly an asset. He keeps opponents square to him on the rushes, and lines his stick up perfectly in the proper lanes. Noticeable to me is how he treats one on ones like 2 on 1s in a good way, in that he takes away options and lets you get a weak shot off from a harmless angle that the goalies are trained to stop in their sleep... Stick in the middle of the ice, doesn't allow the shooter or puck carrier an option in the middle (certainly does not allow the passing lane) and doesn't deflect the puck all over the place. In an interview he did with XM at the combine, he spoke about his receptiveness to coaching, his willingness to eat up criticism in an effort to improve. Great stride despite the lankiness. Nothing you didn't already know... There are obvious legitimate reasons why he is so highly rated on every single board.

Cons: PP aside, I am having trouble translating his offensive numbers into sure-fire production at the next level. And with his shot not being one that overwhelms me in a positive sense, he may never develop into a dangerous PP threat despite being smart with the puck. Needs to work on getting out of the offensive zone after making his rushes, and not staying in the zone so long, transforming into a forward - make your rush and get back to your home. Hes definitely not NHL ready next year. Needs to fill out, and will greatly benefit from the imminent leadership roles in Juniors and the WJCs.

FAVORITE: the way he plays in his own zone overall is tops on my list. He is content being a guy who goes unnoticed until you're up against him in his defensive zone, and then you're introduced to him properly. Equally capable of shutting you down with a body and deceptive, quick, well placed stick work.

HATE IT: he uses his arms to hit a bit too much at the moment. He will frequently shove or hit with his arms; not always enough shoulder or drive with the hips. Whether or not that changes with meat added to his frame remains to be seen.

Standout Draft Moment: for me, his performance in the CHL Top Prospects game, in particular it was the fight with Curtis Lazar that put his mental and physical mindset and willingness to rise to the occasion on a big stage on full display.

If we took him at 8, I'd...be very happy, and only disappointed if we left Lindholm on the board in his stead. We have nothing close to him in the pipeline, and the potential I see is tantalizing enough to get by the fact that there is another year of development in Juniors required of him.

If we took him at 16, I'd...be giddy. I'd endorse the pick at 8, so getting a guy like that in our prospect pool at 16 would be amazing. He's not going to make it that far in the draft, though.

Ridiculously-specific Comparable, Best Case: he would play like Chris Pronger, which isn't all that "ridiculously specific" compared to the other hybrids I've mentioned and will mention (original, I know but you see why the comparisons exist when you watch his tape and focus on the stride length and physicality). Best case, he is all he appears to be defensively and adds some CP to his offense





Volume 1 - Nikita Zadorov

Volume 2 - Steve Santini


Last edited by jBuds: 06-06-2013 at 03:57 AM. Reason: Added links for Vol. 1-2
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06-06-2013, 08:17 AM
  #189
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I know comparables tend to annoy people, but every time I watch Lindholm, he reminds me of Bergeron with how tenacious he is getting to the puck. I've seen Backstrom thrown around, but that just doesn't fit in my eyes, granted I haven't watched that much of him. How do people feel about the Bergeron comparison?

P.S. - Jbuds, appreciate the write-ups. Good reads.


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06-06-2013, 08:32 AM
  #190
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Does Monahan and Lindholm being late 94 birthdays and missing the cutoff for last years draft factor into anyone's opinion on them? It doesn't really matter for junior hockey but for youth it's divided by Dec 31st of that year, and not the Sep 15 cutoff the NHL uses. Really isn't a factor to me, and Seth Jones is also in that boat being a 94 and that obviously hasn't affected his stock. On the flip side, I can see where people go crazy over MacKinnon, being a late 95 and literally one of the youngest players in the draft.

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06-06-2013, 09:26 AM
  #191
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Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Does Monahan and Lindholm being late 94 birthdays and missing the cutoff for last years draft factor into anyone's opinion on them? It doesn't really matter for junior hockey but for youth it's divided by Dec 31st of that year, and not the Sep 15 cutoff the NHL uses. Really isn't a factor to me, and Seth Jones is also in that boat being a 94 and that obviously hasn't affected his stock. On the flip side, I can see where people go crazy over MacKinnon, being a late 95 and literally one of the youngest players in the draft.
I think it is a factor and something that is considered. How much weight do you put on it really depends on the scout. But, I don't think it is a major knock (a minor one though).

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06-06-2013, 09:58 AM
  #192
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I know comparables tend to annoy people, but every time I watch Lindholm, he reminds me of Bergeron with how tenacious he is getting to the puck. I've seen Backstrom thrown around, but that just doesn't fit in my eyes, granted I haven't watched that much of him. How do people feel about the Bergeron comparison?

P.S. - Jbuds, appreciate the write-ups. Good reads.
I feel like it's a good comparison due to the complete nature of their games. If I needed to go the hyperbole route to describe Bergeron, I'd say he's "flawless".

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06-06-2013, 10:10 AM
  #193
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As someone that admittedly hasn't seen Barkov play much, what makes him a better prospect than Lindholm aside from the size difference?

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06-06-2013, 10:46 AM
  #194
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As someone that admittedly hasn't seen Barkov play much, what makes him a better prospect than Lindholm aside from the size difference?
This is pretty much it, though it manifests itself in a variety of ways (i.e. ability to shield the puck, stronger defensively (arguably), greater ability to withstand NHL-level physicality, etc). Think Kopitar vs. a Backstrom/Bergeron blend, if that helps.

If given the chance I would take Barkov though Lindholm is still an elite talent (read: #1C) and may end up the better player 5-10 years down the line.

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06-06-2013, 10:50 AM
  #195
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As someone that admittedly hasn't seen Barkov play much, what makes him a better prospect than Lindholm aside from the size difference?
the "feel" I get from watching them....because they are both incredible talents.... is that in 5-7 years, I would not be surprised if Barkov was in the conversation of top 10 players in the league. I would be surprised if Lindholm was in that conversation....

but on the flip side of that argument... I would be more surprised if Lindholm busted, than Barkov... does that make sense?

that's the best way I can differentiate them. They are both complete players, playing in Men's leagues, and dominating.

When separating high end players at the top of the draft... I like to look at the potential ceiling/floor. I see Barkov with the higher ceiling but the lower floor.... and Lindholm is the opposite, slightly lower ceiling, but a higher floor.

That's the best I can do...

We can make all kind of player comparisons... but at the end, with talents this good, and this close.... it's really just gut feeling at a certain point.

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06-06-2013, 10:57 AM
  #196
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Watching these playoffs, especially the Bruins dominate Pittsburgh, has helped make Lindholm my favorite prospect. Fast, tenacious, physical, all mixed with top end skill. Boston is just so relentless with guys like Bergeron and Kreicji coming at you. The few times that I watched Barkov, he seems more methodical, not that that is a bad thing, but in these playoffs, it's these bullish personalities that are getting it done. Trade up to 5, grab Lindholm and my day will be made.

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06-06-2013, 12:22 PM
  #197
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As someone that admittedly hasn't seen Barkov play much, what makes him a better prospect than Lindholm aside from the size difference?
What undoubtedly factors into it is Barkov's production (0.77 PPG) in 90 games of pro hockey at a younger age (9 months) than Lindholm (0.45 in 66). He will still be 17 at NHL summer camps and only three days removed from his 18th birthday if he plays in the Traverse City tourney. MacKinnon also is young and would be only four days removed.

Skill-wise though, Barkov has all the tools (size, strength, vision, IQ, hands, patience/calmness, defensive awareness) but skating (below average), while Lindholm is the much better skater but gives up size-and-strength. Lindholm also played a lot of wing this past year and some may argue C > W in close rankings like these.

Pronman's explanation was Barkov's elite IQ and age offset the skating disparity:
Quote:
5. Aleksander Barkov, Center, Tappara (SM-Liiga)

Ranking explanation: This spot was up for grabs between two forwards (Barkov and Elias Lindholm) who had fantastic seasons in two very tough leagues. The two have similar puck skills, but evaluating their hockey sense reveals a significant edge for Barkov. Lindholm is not a slouch at reading the game, as he has great hockey sense in both ends, but Barkov's hockey IQ is elite. Barkov's skating is not too impressive, while Lindholm is a top-end skater. That disparity closes the gap, possibly enough to push Lindholm into a dead tie with Barkov. Even though Lindholm shows a little more grit in his game, the size advantage and physicality Barkov brings is a factor. Barkov's accomplishments for a September 1995 birthdate are also very impressive. That is no discredit to Lindholm (even though he a late 1994), as he had one of the best seasons in recent memory by a first-year draft-eligible player in the Swedish Elite League. Barkov's resume is just a tick more impressive, and the fact that he has a lot of room to improve makes him more intriguing as a prospect.

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06-06-2013, 02:08 PM
  #198
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Watching these playoffs, especially the Bruins dominate Pittsburgh, has helped make Lindholm my favorite prospect. Fast, tenacious, physical, all mixed with top end skill. Boston is just so relentless with guys like Bergeron and Kreicji coming at you. The few times that I watched Barkov, he seems more methodical, not that that is a bad thing, but in these playoffs, it's these bullish personalities that are getting it done. Trade up to 5, grab Lindholm and my day will be made.
I completely agree with your estimation of this series.

That said, I'm not sure if it would be wise to draft in anticipation that the game will be the same in 4 or 5 years when these players start to make their mark. I firmly believe that Huge Specimen would have had a decent career if the game hadn't shifted dramatically after he was drafted, for example.

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06-06-2013, 02:23 PM
  #199
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Barkov's skating is not below average though, it's actually pretty decent and much better than he is given credit for. He is probably a better technical skater than Lindholm is.

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06-06-2013, 02:29 PM
  #200
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I don't think I could be any higher on Valentin Zykov. I haven't heard him mentioned much in this thread. He has played with Grigo in the past, and put up great numbers this year in the Q. I think of him basically as a better Adam Erne. What are your guys thoughts at taking him at 16?

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