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Old
06-10-2013, 02:01 AM
  #726
Beendair Donedat
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Wish list:

Samuel Morin - towering defenseman that can fight and a Québécois. He fills a need and can you imagine a blueline with Morin and Tinordi? Lots of beef there.

Bo Horvat - solid player that does everything well. Hard working kid.

Curtis Lazar - right handed centerman that plays the game well and with some grit. Doesn't take a lot of penalties but can fight really well and has a scoring touch.

Dillon Heatherington - steady right handed defenseman in the WHL. Solid physically.

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06-10-2013, 05:13 AM
  #727
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
Why is it greedy to want a player that Timmins might have in his Top 10?

Best draft since 2003 they say. That's awesome. How about you look at the players selected 34th and 36th in that draft. Hell, I'll do it for you. Mike Egener and Vojtech Polak.

Would you rather have Anthony Stewart (25th), Egener (34th) and Polak (36th), or Parise (17th) and Polak?

Now obviously these are two different scenarios, but we have one of the best drafters at the helm in Timmins. If he really likes a guy and wants to move up, then by all means. I prefer quality over quantity. I feel the Habs did well in quantity last draft. With this many picks in the Top 90 they should consider moving up. This isn't like moving up in 2010 and losing any shot at a decent player in the 2nd round. You still have two shots (34/36 and 55) as well as an early shot in the 3rd round. People here act like it would be the end of the world. The Habs are in a great position to bargain.
While there was a few(more then the norm) "high end" players taken in the second round in 2003, you look at the bulk of the picks in the 2nd in 2003 most of them ended up with marginal careers or didn't do anything at all

By my count you have 3 star players taken in the 2nd(Eriksson, Bergeron and Weber), 2 borderline star players(Carle and Crawford) and 2 guys technically considered 2nd round picks because their was tons of compensation picks given although in today's draft they would be considered early 3rds(Howard and Backes)

That is basically 7 players out of 38 picks,which is better then an average year but still a very low percentage

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06-10-2013, 07:19 AM
  #728
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Quote:
Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
Why is it greedy to want a player that Timmins might have in his Top 10?

Best draft since 2003 they say. That's awesome. How about you look at the players selected 34th and 36th in that draft. Hell, I'll do it for you. Mike Egener and Vojtech Polak.

Would you rather have Anthony Stewart (25th), Egener (34th) and Polak (36th), or Parise (17th) and Polak?

Now obviously these are two different scenarios, but we have one of the best drafters at the helm in Timmins. If he really likes a guy and wants to move up, then by all means. I prefer quality over quantity. I feel the Habs did well in quantity last draft. With this many picks in the Top 90 they should consider moving up. This isn't like moving up in 2010 and losing any shot at a decent player in the 2nd round. You still have two shots (34/36 and 55) as well as an early shot in the 3rd round. People here act like it would be the end of the world. The Habs are in a great position to bargain.
The Cup is won by the team with the most depth. In a salary cap world, that depth is acquired through the draft because that is where it most cheaply available.

L.A. had 8 plays produce around 0.50 PPG in the Play-offs last year.
The Bruins had 9 do the same and 8 during the regular season.
Chicago had 9 do the same and 9 during the regular season.
Pittsburgh had 8 do the same and 8 in the regular season.
Detroit had 10 do the same and those same 10 did it in the regular season.

You can't go around trading a 1st, 2nd and 3rd to grab one player if he's only going to be marginally better than what will be left at those picks. You mention Timmins is the best in the business, do you really think he will whiff on 25, 34 and 36? He probably won't even whiff at 55.

So far in the 2nd round Timmins has given us:
Cory Urquhart (Bust)
Maxim Lapierre (3rd line pest)
Guillaume Latendresse (2nd line player when not injured)
Ben Maxwell (Played in NHL, did not stick)
Mathieu Carle (Played in NHL, did not stick).
PK Subban (Norris candidate defenseman)
Danny Kristo (Looking like a potential 2nd line winger played for Team USA at Worlds)
Sebastien Collberg (Too early to tell but looking like a top 6 winger)
Dalton Thrower (had a rough season, could be a gritty bottom pairing D)

All of Timmins picks in the 2nd round have made it to the AHL except for the newest ones.
Only one of those picks except for the last 3 have no played an NHL game.
3 of them can be considered busts.
A star NHL D and a former 30 goal scorer in Latendresse
The recent 3 all look like good bets despite Thrower's recent struggles.

I wonder what this list would look like if Timmins actually HAD some more 2nds because for the most part, our GM has thrown them out like candy to other teams.

If the price to move up is any more than one of our 2nd round picks, we do not move up. If we're going to use one of our, essentially 1st round picks, to move up, then I certainly hope we can get a 4th or 5th back.

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06-10-2013, 07:31 AM
  #729
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
You can't go around trading a 1st, 2nd and 3rd to grab one player if he's only going to be marginally better than what will be left at those picks. You mention Timmins is the best in the business, do you really think he will whiff on 25, 34 and 36? He probably won't even whiff at 55.
Question is would you rather draft 3 Matt Carle's or 1 Zach Parise

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06-10-2013, 07:37 AM
  #730
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Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
Question is would you rather draft 3 Matt Carle's or 1 Zach Parise
The question is, would you rather Mike Richards, Loui Eriksson and Patrice Bergeron or Hugh Jessiman?

It can go either way.

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06-10-2013, 07:50 AM
  #731
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
The question is, would you rather Mike Richards, Loui Eriksson and Patrice Bergeron or Hugh Jessiman?

It can go either way.
It could go either way but chances of getting that top end talent increase when you trade up. As I pointed out above 3(4 if you want to count Backes) of the 38 picks in the second round are what I would consider out of the park home run picks, that isn't great odds. On the flip side I would call 6 out of 10 picks between 11-20(I assume this is Where Montreal would trade up into) were out of the park homerun picks(2 others have/had respectable careers(Bernier and Fehr), 1 was a borderline dud(Nilsson) who played his fair share of games and one was Jessiman)


Last edited by boredmale: 06-10-2013 at 07:59 AM.
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06-10-2013, 07:52 AM
  #732
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Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
It could go either way but chances of getting that top end talent increase when you trade up. As I pointed out above 3(4 if you want to count Backes) of the 38 picks in the second round are what I would consider out of the park home run picks, that isn't great odds
The odds increase the more picks you have. If you trade 3 picks to move up and the guy you move up for doesn't hit or is a marginal player at best, do you win?

It's a risk. One I'm not willing to take for any one outside of the top 10 because I don't see the separation.

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06-10-2013, 08:07 AM
  #733
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
The odds increase the more picks you have. If you trade 3 picks to move up and the guy you move up for doesn't hit or is a marginal player at best, do you win?

It's a risk. One I'm not willing to take for any one outside of the top 10 because I don't see the separation.
Looking at 2003

Top 5 - 4 hits, 1 could have been better
6-10 3 hits, 2 could have been better(both who I might rate a hit if they were picked late in the first round)
11-15 3 hits, 2 duds
16-20 3 hits, 2 could have been better
21-25 2 hits, 3 could have been better(and I am being very generous with Marc-Antoine Pouliot(22) and Anthony Stewart(25))
26-30 1 hits, 2 could have been better, 2 duds
30-40 1 hit, 1 quality pickup for where they were picked, 8 duds

Other then 11-15 do you sort of see the trend? Ironically 16-20 was probably better then 6-10 or 11-15 because 2 guys who were rated high fell down to those spots(Parise and Getzlaf)

I would say in the first 20 picks, there was a 65% success rate getting a very good player, 85% success rate getting an NHL quality player. From 20-30 the success rate was 30% getting a very good player, 60% success rate getting an NHL quality player


Last edited by boredmale: 06-10-2013 at 08:28 AM.
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06-10-2013, 08:21 AM
  #734
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Here is a look at some prospects on the right and left wings with information gleaned from scouting reports provided by the Red Line Report independent scouting service 2013 Draft Guide and feedback from NHL scout sources.
http://hockeyjournal.com/blog/kirks/...nd_projections

some names that have been discussed here.

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06-10-2013, 08:25 AM
  #735
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If we can find a way to move our picks #25 and #55 to move into the top 15 or so in the draft, i would do it.

Mac, Drouin, Jones, Barkov, Nichushkin, Lindholm, Nurse, Monahan, Ristolainen, Shinkaruk, Horvat, Zadorov and Wennberg IMO are the top talent of the draft. They are 13 players then 15 can get us Domi, Morin, Lazar or Zykov. Maybe one of the top 13 can drop to us there.

Anywhere else isnt really worth trading for. Unless a depth move like a late 3rd for more picks like a 4th and 5th. Where we can get guys like Dunn, Kostalek, Bibeau, Belanger or some of my late sleepers like Taylor Cammarata(i know... hes small) and big Q defender, Ryan Graves.

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06-10-2013, 08:35 AM
  #736
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Originally Posted by LeHabsMan View Post
If we can find a way to move our picks #25 and #55 to move into the top 15 or so in the draft, i would do it.
Why would a team trade down 10+ spots for a pick that's basically a crapshoot(55)

Only way that trade helps the team in the top 15 is if they were going to pick a player who is a dud and it prevents them from picking that person.

55 at most will get you to 18-21, and given 2 of those teams picking already have multiple choices(SJ and Columbus) that basically leaves you 18(Detroit, who I am guessing will relish in picking top 20 for a change) or 21(Toronto)


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06-10-2013, 08:49 AM
  #737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
Looking at 2003

Top 5 - 4 hits, 1 could have been better
6-10 3 hits, 2 could have been better(both who I might rate a hit if they were picked late in the first round)
11-15 3 hits, 2 duds
16-20 3 hits, 2 could have been better
21-25 2 hits, 3 could have been better(and I am being very generous with Marc-Antoine Pouliot(22) and Anthony Stewart(25))
26-30 1 hits, 2 could have been better, 2 duds
30-40 1 hit, 1 quality pickup for where they were picked, 8 duds

Other then 11-15 do you sort of see the trend? Ironically 16-20 was probably better then 6-10 or 11-15 because 2 guys who were rated high fell down to those spots(Parise and Getzlaf)

I would say in the first 20 picks, there was a 65% success rate getting a very good player, 85% success rate getting an NHL quality player. From 20-30 the success rate was 30% getting a very good player, 60% success rate getting an NHL quality player
MacKinnon, Drouin, Jones, Barkov, Lindholm, Monahan and Nichuskin are the unlikely to miss guys in this draft.
I'd add Nurse and Ristolainen in there.
That's the top 10. No one is going to let us into that area.
Lazar, Horvat, Mueller, Shinkaruk, Wennberg, Domi and Zykov are the next tier. While I think most of them will make the NHL and be players, I don't see one name on that list that is a must have to me. Lazar has a lot of very good qualities but I don't think he's much higher than a 60 point player. Horvat is smart but what's really elite about his tools? Mueller is going to be an all situations D man. Shinkaruk will score but he's not really big and I don't know how rounded his game is. Wennberg is talented, not sure if he has enough to make me want to trade up for him. Domi is small, skilled, tireless worker but how does his Diabetes effect him in the NHL? Zykov is good, a scoring bull but he didn't wow me in the Halifax series.
Then you have the two Q guys I don't like in Mantha and Gauthier.

My opinion is there isn't anyone in the 10-20 range that has an elite skillset that I feel we have to desperately move up to grab.

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06-10-2013, 08:54 AM
  #738
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Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
It could go either way but chances of getting that top end talent increase when you trade up.
True in most years.

This year is more forgiving, in our draft slot. When you hear Woodlief say that last year's 25th ranked player would have ranked 40th this year, we can get a high upside talent without trading up.

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06-10-2013, 09:05 AM
  #739
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Originally Posted by Runner77 View Post
True in most years.

This year is more forgiving, in our draft slot. When you hear Woodlief say that last year's 25th ranked player would have ranked 40th this year, we can get a high upside talent without trading up.
I'm more than content staying put and if no one falls to us that we deem worthy, find someone who is high on a player available and slide back.

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06-10-2013, 09:16 AM
  #740
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
I'm more than content staying put and if no one falls to us that we deem worthy, find someone who is high on a player available and slide back.
It all depends who they move up for. We've seen them trade up to grab Tinordi and they apparently tried to trade up to grab McDonagh, two players that weren't droppers, just guys the organization loved. Timmins really likes his guys, so I hope they don't trade up just to make sure they grab Hartman or McCarron. I would be pissed if that happened. Horvat I can live with. Lazar, sure, if it's the 55th they use.

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06-10-2013, 09:31 AM
  #741
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Originally Posted by boredmale View Post
Why would a team trade down 10+ spots for a pick that's basically a crapshoot(55)

Only way that trade helps the team in the top 15 is if they were going to pick a player who is a dud and it prevents them from picking that person.

55 at most will get you to 18-21, and given 2 of those teams picking already have multiple choices(SJ and Columbus) that basically leaves you 18(Detroit, who I am guessing will relish in picking top 20 for a change) or 21(Toronto)
"Find a way to" which can mean adding a decent prospect(Morgan Ellis or Patrick Holland...) And you are right, it probably wont happen but its the only acceptable thing to do.

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06-10-2013, 09:48 AM
  #742
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I heard that carolina was interested in shopping there 5th overall pick. The price might be too steep but i could see us trading our 2 early 2nd rounders for it. Carolina would then have 3 picks in a row (34,35,36) Jim Rutherford would be a happy guy with those picks. Then we can take barkov or nichushkin or lindholm all of which are NHL ready and truly have that impact player that will make a difference with galchenyuk for years to come!!! while still having a 2nd round pick (55th) and 2 3rd's aswell

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06-10-2013, 09:58 AM
  #743
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I heard that carolina was interested in shopping there 5th overall pick. The price might be too steep but i could see us trading our 2 early 2nd rounders for it. Carolina would then have 3 picks in a row (34,35,36) Jim Rutherford would be a happy guy with those picks. Then we can take barkov or nichushkin or lindholm all of which are NHL ready and truly have that impact player that will make a difference with galchenyuk for years to come!!! while still having a 2nd round pick (55th) and 2 3rd's aswell
You just have to think that Carolina would ask, at the minimum, for the 25th pick + one of our early 2nds. And that's still a reach IMO.

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06-10-2013, 10:04 AM
  #744
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It all depends who they move up for. We've seen them trade up to grab Tinordi and they apparently tried to trade up to grab McDonagh, two players that weren't droppers, just guys the organization loved. Timmins really likes his guys, so I hope they don't trade up just to make sure they grab Hartman or McCarron. I would be pissed if that happened. Horvat I can live with. Lazar, sure, if it's the 55th they use.
If you didn't see the U-18 gold medal game between Canada and the US...you should Google it and watch for yourself. The best two players for Canada were...Laurent Dauphin and Frederick Gauthier. Gauthier was much better than Mike McCarron for the US. McCarron reminds me of a slow moving Keith Primeau. Gauthier plays smartly on both ends of the ice. Dauphin is hardworking and great with the puck. He was always a threat when he was on the ice. Steven Santini was the best player on the American side...handled the puck well and skated well for the American team.

1st pick...25th...Frederick Gauthier
2nd pick...34th...Laurent Dauphin or Emile Poirier
3rd pick...36th...Steven Santini

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06-10-2013, 10:15 AM
  #745
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If you didn't see the U-18 gold medal game between Canada and the US...you should Google it and watch for yourself. The best two players for Canada were...Laurent Dauphin and Frederick Gauthier. Gauthier was much better than Mike McCarron for the US. McCarron reminds me of a slow moving Keith Primeau. Gauthier plays smartly on both ends of the ice. Dauphin is hardworking and great with the puck. He was always a threat when he was on the ice. Steven Santini was the best player on the American side...handled the puck well and skated well for the American team.

1st pick...25th...Frederick Gauthier
2nd pick...34th...Laurent Dauphin or Emile Poirier
3rd pick...36th...Steven Santini
I would Hulk Smash in rage at that draft.

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06-10-2013, 10:18 AM
  #746
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McCarron reminds me of a slow moving Keith Primeau.
I'm starting to think that Grant is one of the very few on this site, who is as upbeat about McCarron.

Grant's recent McCarron endorsements:

Quote:
He is the player I want the Habs to take at 25 if he's there. I see his upside as a second line 6-5 winger who can score 20-25 goals and 40-50 points and chip in 100-150 PIM's. Not many of them in the NHL folks.
Quote:
Bickell was very good offensively in junior? Not at McCarron's age....he wasn't half the prospect McCarron is at the same age. I saw Bickell lots..he was a dog at 17.

So the only thing you concede in his favour is that he's dominant physically..but only because he plays against guys who are 3-3 and 110 pounds. That's like deriding Crosby for being fast because his legs are bigger than everyone else's. Or saying "Sure..Stamkos is the best goal scorer in the NHL, but that's only because his wrists are so strong."

McCarron played against predominantly 19-21-year-olds and dominated them physically...you have to like his odds of being able to do that at any level when he's fully grown.

Is he the most skilled player in the draft? Of course not. How many 6-5 230 pound forwards are? But to say his skills are poor is simply wrong...skate and handles the puck well for a 6-5 guy..has some passing skills and a heavy wrist shot.
Quote:
No disrespect, but you are skeptical about his upside based on.... looking at stats and seeing him play on TV once? Been told since January by a few scouts that he's a first rounder..I've thought so since seeing him in the fall actually.

I see long term upside without question..he is huge, can skate, has a good shot, has decent sense. Much like Gauthier, he is only going to get better as he grows into his body. Also been told that he's "tough as nails."

Not many people thought Lucic had ANY offensive upside in his draft year. McCarron can't fight like Lucic..but he can sure as hell skate better
.

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06-10-2013, 10:18 AM
  #747
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
I would Hulk Smash in rage at that draft.
Rage all you want...it would be far better draft than what you suggest!!!

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06-10-2013, 10:19 AM
  #748
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
If you didn't see the U-18 gold medal game between Canada and the US...you should Google it and watch for yourself. The best two players for Canada were...Laurent Dauphin and Frederick Gauthier. Gauthier was much better than Mike McCarron for the US. McCarron reminds me of a slow moving Keith Primeau. Gauthier plays smartly on both ends of the ice. Dauphin is hardworking and great with the puck. He was always a threat when he was on the ice. Steven Santini was the best player on the American side...handled the puck well and skated well for the American team.

1st pick...25th...Frederick Gauthier
2nd pick...34th...Laurent Dauphin or Emile Poirier
3rd pick...36th...Steven Santini
Bad draft. We draft too much of the same thing.

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06-10-2013, 10:21 AM
  #749
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Rage all you want...it would be far better draft than what you suggest!!!
Hardly. You drafted a 3rd line center, 34th pick I am fine with and then you pick Santini too early.

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06-10-2013, 10:24 AM
  #750
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
If you didn't see the U-18 gold medal game between Canada and the US...you should Google it and watch for yourself. The best two players for Canada were...Laurent Dauphin and Frederick Gauthier. Gauthier was much better than Mike McCarron for the US. McCarron reminds me of a slow moving Keith Primeau. Gauthier plays smartly on both ends of the ice. Dauphin is hardworking and great with the puck. He was always a threat when he was on the ice. Steven Santini was the best player on the American side...handled the puck well and skated well for the American team.

1st pick...25th...Frederick Gauthier
2nd pick...34th...Laurent Dauphin or Emile Poirier
3rd pick...36th...Steven Santini
Gauthier...is 6'5...skates well...responsible at both ends of the ice...physical presence. Dauphin is the next Patrice Bergeron....smart with the puck + great stickhandler. Santini...outstanding defenceman...reminds me of Seabrook.

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