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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk 10.0

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Old
06-11-2013, 09:04 AM
  #901
Nedved
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
Nasty might be available at 55. I think 36 is too high for him. Even then, I'd prefer to wait and perhaps grab Moutrey, he shows more of an edge.


I would be surprised if he lasted that long; although, that's where I got him in my md. still waiting to make the habs final pick, in the 4 round mock draft...

adam erne
samuel morin
ian mccoshen
zach nastasiuk
peter cehlarik

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06-11-2013, 09:05 AM
  #902
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Thank you for disregarding the bulk of my post Only wrote that in to tie it into the discussion.

But to roll with it, (just as an example) say Andre Burakowsky and Jacob De La Rose are available at our pick. Our scouting staff figures Andre has a 20% chance at becoming an impact player in the NHL, a 10% chance of being a useful but not impactful player in the NHL, and an 70% chance of never making the NHL. Jacob appears to have an 80% chance at becoming an NHL regular, %5 to be an impact player and 15% chance at never making it in the NHL. Who do you choose? There are many analogies that could work with this. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush?

Obviously the percentages are skewed , it's just forming a picture. Swing for the fences on two of our picks, dial it down with one of them so as not to walk away empty handed. That's how I feel. We've got the chance to play it risky as well as playing it safe, we're in a good spot.
You have presented a reasoned approach based on the projected comparative value of players. Let us hope that the team adopts a similar, studious approach in their decision making process. For me, based on the state of the team , the nature of the current draft and where we are drafting, I would take a much more aggressive (or riskier) approach in my selection approach. I would eschew the downside risks and tend to select those players I believe have the highest upside. These are the players that will allow us to compete with the Chicagos, San Joses and other powerhouses in the league. Safe, middle of the road players will not do it. Hockey has changed in the last 20 years. In the past, if you made a mistake in your drafting, you could set back your team for years. Free agency has changed that dynamic. It allow teams an opportunity to cover up draft mistakes and to be little more aggressive in their drafting methodology. In this draft, we will have multiple opportunities to take players with high upsides. If at 25, 34 and 36 we pass up an opportunity to take potential high impact players because of the dreaded boom/bust factor, we will have well earned our continuing mediocrity.


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06-11-2013, 09:06 AM
  #903
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Nastasiuk will probably fall into that gulf of players selected between 36 and 55. I personally wouldn't take him before 55, but I also don't expect him to last that long.

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06-11-2013, 09:14 AM
  #904
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
Nasty might be available at 55. I think 36 is too high for him. Even then, I'd prefer to wait and perhaps grab Moutrey, he shows more of an edge.
Playing in Saginaw Moutrey didn't get a lot of accolades and attention but don't underestimate his skill sets, skating, compete level, high ceiling of potential and his grit and edge he plays with. He is a big strong 6'3 210 lb skilled power forward who is still only 17. He was being watched very closley by NHL scouts and he impressed at the NHL combine and Montreal's, Buffalo's and Boston's personal combines. I think the team that picks him will have a helluva player.

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06-11-2013, 09:28 AM
  #905
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Playing in Saginaw Moutrey didn't get a lot of accolades and attention but don't underestimate his skill sets, skating, compete level, high ceiling of potential and his grit and edge he plays with. He is a big strong 6'3 210 lb skilled power forward who is still only 17. He was being watched very closley by NHL scouts and he impressed at the NHL combine and Montreal's, Buffalo's and Boston's personal combines. I think the team that picks him will have a helluva player.
You didn't answer my Moutrey or Lodge question!

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06-11-2013, 09:40 AM
  #906
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Nastasiuk will probably fall into that gulf of players selected between 36 and 55. I personally wouldn't take him before 55, but I also don't expect him to last that long.
I agree. I think of OHL prospects, both Baptiste and Kujawinski project as better NHL players. There is a certain level of hype attached to Nastasiuk and it wouldn't surprise me me at all if he goes near the top of second round. While I believe he will play in the NHl, I just wonder how effective he will be.

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06-11-2013, 09:45 AM
  #907
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
You have presented a reasoned approach based on the projected comparative value of players. Let us hope that the team adopts a similar, studious approach in their decision making process. For me, based on the state of the team , the nature of the current draft and where we are drafting, I would take a much more aggressive (or riskier) approach in my selection approach. I would eschew the downside risks and tend to select those players I believe have the highest upside. These are the players that will allow us to compete with the Chicagos, San Joses and other powerhouses in the league. Safe, middle of the road players will not do it. Hockey has changed in the last 20 years. In the past, if you made a mistake in your drafting, you could set back your team for years. Free agency has changed that dynamic. It allow teams an opportunity to cover up draft mistakes and to be little more aggressive in their drafting methodology. In this draft, we will have multiple opportunities to take players with high upsides. If at 25, 34 and 36 we pass up an opportunity to take potential high impact players because of the dreaded boom/bust factor, we will have well earned our continuing mediocrity.
I definitely agree with you based on our current situation but, there are always two sides.

That being said, I'm much more interested in drafting - Lehkonen, Bailey, Klimchuk, Hagg, McCarron (though he's not my favourite, Grant likes him and he does have physical upside), Morissey, Duclair, Diaby (physical upside), Fucale (technical upside) Wennberg etc.

Than I am in - Hartman, Nastasiuk, Erne, Mccoshen, Horvat, Lazar, Rychel, Bigras, Carrier.

Depending on the player, their stats may not look as good and their physical/defensive play may not be at the same level but these guys have the chance to be game-changers or impact players, the others don't.

Two notes: I'm not a big fan of Burakowsky, he's definitely not a creative player, don't think he's got "it", and I don't see his game improving a whole lot or transitioning to the NHL.

Secondly, before WTK comes in here guns ablazin', Fucale has great upside for a goalie. He may not be perfect now but he has the physical ability to really improve. Most of his fundamentals, or his technique, is really sound and that makes room for huge amounts of improvement in his future. When you've got a guy that's technically proficient he'll be growing twice as fast as the exciting, sprawling goalie we all like to watch. Obviously, it's player specific and I've never sat down and put him through drills, but I see a lot of physical potential in him. That's the only reason why.


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06-11-2013, 09:49 AM
  #908
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Guess this can go here. CHL banning import goalies in 2014 in an attempt to boost homegrown talent in that position. Can't say I agree with it but we'll see down the road if it proves effective I guess.

Quote:
Within four years or less, there will be no more European goalies playing major junior hockey in Canada and the U.S. after the CHL officially moved to make goaltenders ineligible to be selected in the league's import draft starting next year.
...
The change was officially announced Monday night at the OHL's "Protect the Net" symposium, a gathering designed to address the "crisis" in Canadian goaltending, specifically in Ontario.

For the 2013 CHL import draft, import goalies can be selected by any of the 60 teams only in the first round, and those goalies plus others currently playing in the league can play out their full junior eligibility.

Starting in 2014, import goalies will be banned from the draft, and will have no other way to become eligible to play in the CHL. The current limit of two imports per CHL team won't change, but ultimately those roster spots will belong to only forwards or defencemen.
http://thestar.blogs.com/thespin/201...nitiative.html

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06-11-2013, 09:59 AM
  #909
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Guess this can go here. CHL banning import goalies in 2014 in an attempt to boost homegrown talent in that position. Can't say I agree with it but we'll see down the road if it proves effective I guess.



http://thestar.blogs.com/thespin/201...nitiative.html
It seems to be one area, of hockey, where canadian development is lagging. We use to have the best goalies, and in bunches, but now it's a weakness for us.

time will tell if it works, but I want to know what is going on in the U.S. because they're developing incredible goalies. Maybe it's simply numbers, but they're doing a better job...and we're not really seeing much improvement in canada.

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06-11-2013, 10:05 AM
  #910
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That's going to have little to no effect. The problem is kids aren't playing goalie growing up anymore and parents are urging kids to play other positions. There are too few goalie positions available in the NHL especially with international players. Until that changes, nothing the CHL does will really have an impact.

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06-11-2013, 10:07 AM
  #911
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Originally Posted by Nedved View Post
I would be surprised if he lasted that long; although, that's where I got him in my md. still waiting to make the habs final pick, in the 4 round mock draft...

adam erne
samuel morin
ian mccoshen
zach nastasiuk
peter cehlarik
I don't know much about Cehlarik, but damn, those 4 first picks are awesome...

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06-11-2013, 10:10 AM
  #912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ginu View Post
That's going to have little to no effect. The problem is kids aren't playing goalie growing up anymore and parents are urging kids to play other positions. There are too few goalie positions available in the NHL especially with international players. Until that changes, nothing the CHL does will really have an impact.
Primarily because it's expensive as hell, I would have to imagine.

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06-11-2013, 10:27 AM
  #913
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I definitely agree with you based on our current situation but, there are always two sides.

That being said, I'm much more interested in drafting - Lehkonen, Bailey, Klimchuk, Hagg, McCarron (though he's not my favourite, Grant likes him and he does have physical upside), Morissey, Duclair, Diaby (physical upside), Fucale (technical upside) Wennberg etc.

Than I am in - Hartman, Nastasiuk, Erne, Mccoshen, Horvat, Lazar, Rychel, Bigras, Carrier.

Depending on the player, their stats may not look as good and their physical/defensive play may not be at the same level but these guys have the chance to be game-changers or impact players, the others don't.

Two notes: I'm not a big fan of Burakowsky, he's definitely not a creative player, don't think he's got "it", and I don't see his game improving a whole lot or transitioning to the NHL.

Secondly, before WTK comes in here guns ablazin', Fucale has great upside for a goalie. He may not be perfect now but he has the physical ability to really improve. Most of his fundamentals, or his technique, is really sound and that makes room for huge amounts of improvement in his future. When you've got a guy that's technically proficient he'll be growing twice as fast as the exciting, sprawling goalie we all like to watch. Obviously, it's player specific and I've never sat down and put him through drills, but I see a lot of physical potential in him. That's the only reason why.
Again, my argument is based on the appropriate methodology that must be adopted and not so much on the specific details of implementing such an approach. If you believe that Fucale has the highest upside of the players that will be available when we draft, he's the player to go for. You don't pick a player because of positional need, nor should the absence of such need, deter you from selecting such a player. This is an exercise in acquiring assets: ones that will directly elevate the skill and competitive level of your team or that can be used in a later transaction to acquire other valuable assets. It's all about asset management. Those teams that get it right, retain a high competitive level. Those who don't, win only two Stanley Cups over the last, almost four decades.

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06-11-2013, 10:28 AM
  #914
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Agreed, he has legitimate 30 goal sniper upside. Muller was just BPA, even though I wanted to grab a forward like McCarron, Dickinson, or Nastasiuk there.

I'm making the 36th selection soon, and I want to pick up a forward -- the monkey wrench being that Hagg is still on the board, who is consistently ranked in the 18-25 range. Obviously you guys know this team better than I do; hypothetically, what would you want to see the Canadiens do in that situation?

I see a team that needs to add size and skill to its top 6, while PK, Tinordi, Beaulieu, Gorges et al seem to have a pretty good handle on the top 4, that would make Hagg and Muller hard to fit in. Guess I just want to know your philosophy here d:
I would certainly want Dickinson before McCarron or Nastasiuk. The Habs have to maintain their identity...a FAST team. That is why I would pick Poirier at 34 or 36 and Bailey at 55.

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06-11-2013, 10:31 AM
  #915
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You got the skilled guys, time to add the size. Never really thought Hagg was anything special. He's similar to Mueller but not as good of a skater.

I'd be leaning towards McCarron for that pick, though it is tough to pass on Bailey.
McCarron...is big...but slow as molasses...I would easily rather have Gauthier or Mantha.

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06-11-2013, 10:44 AM
  #916
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
McCarron...is big...but slow as molasses...I would easily rather have Gauthier or Mantha.
Okay? This is for the Leafs board mock draft, neither of those two players are available.

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06-11-2013, 10:44 AM
  #917
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
I would certainly want Dickinson before McCarron or Nastasiuk. The Habs have to maintain their identity...a FAST team. That is why I would pick Poirier at 34 or 36 and Bailey at 55.
That's my thinking as well -- Dickinson or Porier at 36 and pick up one of Zack Nasty/McCarron/Lodge etc at 55.

Damn, too bad I'm not a Habs fan, because this draft is going to be a ton of fun for you guys

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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
I would have probably grabbed Mueller/Müller first, then tried to go all skill with the 2nd pick, but it works this way too.
Okay, let's be real, you can't pass up on Burakovsky if he's dropped to 25

Quote:
I think picking Hagg and Müller would be a bit of an overkill. McCoshen is also still available.

Looking at the mock, I see Bailey, McCarron, Dauphin, Poirier, Dickinson, De La Rose and Nastasiuk as good fits for #36. Any one would be good in my view considering how the first 2 picks went.
That's the thing re: overkill. The defensemen on the board include Bigras, McCoshen, Santini, and Hagg. That's a lot of quality D prospects. De la Rose is a bit polarizing; I like his game but I'm not sure he has the offensive upside to warrant being picked 36th. Same with my boy Zack Nasty. Dickinson is an interesting pick though -- great size and oozes skill, but struggles with consistency. Might be worth the flier at 36.

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Also hard to take it seriously when you guys all conspired to have Lazar available at 21.
What no that wasn't planned or anything


Last edited by 7even: 06-11-2013 at 11:11 AM.
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06-11-2013, 10:55 AM
  #918
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I would certainly want Dickinson before McCarron or Nastasiuk. The Habs have to maintain their identity...a FAST team. That is why I would pick Poirier at 34 or 36 and Bailey at 55.
I aree with this reasoning, I'd like to be bigger but not at the expense of losing out on being a fast team.

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06-11-2013, 11:02 AM
  #919
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Guess this can go here. CHL banning import goalies in 2014 in an attempt to boost homegrown talent in that position. Can't say I agree with it but we'll see down the road if it proves effective I guess.



http://thestar.blogs.com/thespin/201...nitiative.html
I find this is a dumb overreaction.

Find ways to improve the overall calibre of goaltending in the country instead of wrorrying about 5 Euro goalies in the CHL.

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06-11-2013, 11:12 AM
  #920
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
I agree. I think of OHL prospects, both Baptiste and Kujawinski project as better NHL players. There is a certain level of hype attached to Nastasiuk and it wouldn't surprise me me at all if he goes near the top of second round. While I believe he will play in the NHl, I just wonder how effective he will be.
Kujawinski won't project to be better in the NHL unless he starts giving a damn when he plays. Nasty gives it his all every time he is out there. That's valuable for a guy who plays like he does.

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06-11-2013, 11:16 AM
  #921
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McCarron...is big...but slow as molasses...I would easily rather have Gauthier or Mantha.
Redline has McCarron as neither a scorer nor a tough guy

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06-11-2013, 11:16 AM
  #922
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You have presented a reasoned approach based on the projected comparative value of players. Let us hope that the team adopts a similar, studious approach in their decision making process. For me, based on the state of the team , the nature of the current draft and where we are drafting, I would take a much more aggressive (or riskier) approach in my selection approach. I would eschew the downside risks and tend to select those players I believe have the highest upside. These are the players that will allow us to compete with the Chicagos, San Joses and other powerhouses in the league. Safe, middle of the road players will not do it. Hockey has changed in the last 20 years. In the past, if you made a mistake in your drafting, you could set back your team for years. Free agency has changed that dynamic. It allow teams an opportunity to cover up draft mistakes and to be little more aggressive in their drafting methodology. In this draft, we will have multiple opportunities to take players with high upsides. If at 25, 34 and 36 we pass up an opportunity to take potential high impact players because of the dreaded boom/bust factor, we will have well earned our continuing mediocrity.
I see it as the complete opposite.

With the salary cap in place, free agency becomes less important in how teams are built. Also, more players are signed before making it to free agency and the last few years have shown that there aren't that many impact UFAs available on July 1st.

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06-11-2013, 11:20 AM
  #923
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Originally Posted by Mats86 View Post
Redline has McCarron as neither a scorer nor a tough guy
But he's certainly not "slow as molasses"

I think phillytennis is Bob COle in that he watches different games than the rest of us.

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06-11-2013, 11:33 AM
  #924
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Gare Joyce ‏@GareJoyceNHL 43m
Re #Zykov "Would b a top 10 all things equal, will go 20-30 just on Russian thing. Really good player. Best intervu @ the draft. #NHL #draft

Wonder if that's a Habs scout talking since MAG also reported that Zykov was the best interview.

Gare Joyce ‏@GareJoyceNHL 13m
Asked another scout (not 1 of three in poll, Ont-based) what Kirby Rychel needs to succeed. A: "Some love." #NHL #draft

Gare Joyce ‏@GareJoyceNHL 4m
Re Rychel: Scout said, "Incredibly difficult situation playing in Windsor 4 Warren. It did him no favours. Huge heart. V tuf." #NHL #draft

Gare Joyce ‏@GareJoyceNHL 9m
Rychel's interviews v solid. Lotsa scouts pulling for him. Warren has lotsa friends, but is Jr more than 3rd line upside? Hard 1 #nhl #draft

Gare Joyce ‏@GareJoyceNHL 47m
Re Halifax goalie going to Jersey as rumoured: Sr scout take "athletic but unpolished, will need lotta work b4 ready"

Gare Joyce ‏@GareJoyceNHL 41m
Re Nikushkin: Sr scouts all laughed. Sez 1 "Don't remember worse combine. Quit tests, brutal intervu. Shame. as talented." #NHL #draft
#NHL #draft


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06-11-2013, 11:33 AM
  #925
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But he's certainly not "slow as molasses"

I think phillytennis is Bob COle in that he watches different games than the rest of us.
That's what I think too.

And about the comment where we must keep our identity as a fast team, well, our speed didn't help a whole lot so far... we must add power to complement that speed, cause we won't win anything without PF...

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