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All Sedin Discussion - Part II

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Old
06-11-2013, 09:08 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
It's not irrelevant, but it's being vastly overstated. Each extra offensive zone start is worth about 1/3 to 1/2 of a shot attempt. The Sedins are on for about 10 or 11 end zone faceoffs a game, so a 10% difference (say 65% vs. 55%) results in 1 extra offensive zone start per game. That extra zone start per game then results in about 25-35 extra shot attempts over the course of a season. This season the Sedins produced 1 goal roughly every 20-25 shot attempts, so a 10% increase in zone starts equates to about 1 to 1.5 extra GF while they're on the ice over an 82 game season. And of course players aren't in on 100% of the goals they're on for, so the actual effect on their numbers would be further diminished. We're talking maybe one or two extra 5-on-5 points in an 82 game season.


Yeah when you're talking about a huge swing between 80% and 20% there would be a noticeable effect, but the difference between Henrik's 63% this year and the 55% that scores of offensive players around the league get is essentially insignificant. Anyone pinning their criticism on that is either misinformed or has an axe to grind.
Pretty much. I tend to think it might give the Sedins an extra 2-3 points just because they're so good offensively once they get possession in that end. And it might have been 8-10 points in their two really great seasons when the rest of the league had caught on to the Canucks deployment strategies.

And to those questioning it, I'd just say this: it's not like it's a useless tool. You wring out any extra goals you can. Combined with the right d zone starts, you might net an extra win or two for your club in a season. You take every advantage you can get.

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06-11-2013, 09:12 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Isn't it hard to answer that question as Perry's cap hit was a little over 5 million last year.

His new cap hit doesn't kick in until next season and we don't know how any of those players are going to do yet.

I know that for the last season and the one before which guy had more value, it's Perry easily.
Thats a bunch of garbage. Henrik had more assists then Perry had points in 11/12

Sedin, Henrik VAN 82 14 67 81

Perry, Corey ANA 80 37 23 60

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06-11-2013, 09:15 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
i dont think being a penalty killer is necessarily related to good defence or two way play. andrew alberts is a better penalty killer than kevin bieksa but in no way is he a better defenceman.

It gets the Twins thinking more of a two-way level, is what I mean. A good 2way player need not play the PK, it's true. Datsyuk for instance doesn't kill nearly the amount of penalties someone of his ability should command. However, he is a proven capable option. In the same way, the next coach could gain more trust in the twins in this are, and use them more there. The resulting focus could help them overall. It also provides an opportunity to keep them in games that have a heavy penalty focus early on.

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06-11-2013, 09:17 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
It gets the Twins thinking more of a two-way level, is what I mean. A good 2way player need not play the PK, it's true. Datsyuk for instance doesn't kill nearly the amount of penalties someone of his ability should command. However, he is a proven capable option. In the same way, the next coach could gain more trust in the twins in this are, and use them more there. The resulting focus could help them overall. It also provides an opportunity to keep them in games that have a heavy penalty focus early on.
id definitely like to see them practice it, no question - just not sure if its something id ever whip out in game time.

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06-11-2013, 09:23 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Henrik 6.1 million-line of 47-11-34-45 19:21 TOI PP 3:33/SH .09 64% Ostarts
Perry 5.35 million 44-15-21-36 19:01 TOI PP 2:49/ SH .55 48% Ostarts

Given that Perry is a bit of a gritty guy a strong case can be made for him over Hank, and definitely over Daniel who is a scoring winger like Corey.
So how is Henrik Sedin not a discount at 6.1 in the next 2 or 3 years when Perry is taking 8.6 in 2 or 3 years ?

I said the Sedins are a discount even at their current cap hit for 3 or 4 more years. The fact that they are older is all taken up in salary inflation.

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06-11-2013, 09:24 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Well Burrows overall PPG went down from .65-.51 (so he wasn't taking up points from the line) while it was

Hank .99-.94
Daniel .93-.85

But I know it's all about ES points. Who is to say that the increased defensive burden didn't hurt their PP production? Really at the end of the day the larger sample is more telling than the smaller one for a couple of reasons I'll list below.

I'm not sure what your point is here? Please clarify.



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Okay so the smaller sample is more indicative of exactly what, besides making your POV look better?

Sorry but the 3 year sample is more indicative than any 1 year sample with no interlocking play and a 48 game sample compared to over 200 games.

Throw in the general trend for players production to decrease as they age and most indicators point to a further decline next year.

One can hope for the exception but to cherry pick only certain stats and smaller samples over the much larger ones isn't the best way to back up any future assertions or projections?


The shorter sample, and the larger sample, both show the same thing: That Ozone start differences produce a marginal effect, if one at all.

I see that opendoor has pooled together stats from every corner to show the effects in a literal sense. Does it change your opinion at all?

We can take the larger sample and still infer the same thing: That the effect is marginal, if meaningful at all. Kesler, Samuelsson and Raymond seemed to do well under a system where the Sedins got to a higher share of Ozone starts. This year is when it was scaled back, but the Sedins were still excellent producers at ES without the "advantage" (the only time Ozone starts factor in BTW). The depth in many ways didn't do any better as a result. So I'm not sure what sample is going to show you here?

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06-11-2013, 09:29 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
id definitely like to see them practice it, no question - just not sure if its something id ever whip out in game time.

I would from time to time. Just to give the PK a different look, and to get the Sedins into the game. Similar to what SJ has done with Thornton. But anyways, not really a big deal given the plethora of PK options on the squad.

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06-11-2013, 09:32 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I'm still insure what you mean, their cap hit right now is 6.1 million each. Are you saying it will be 6.1 million combined?

Or maybe it's me, I don't think they are playing up to value right now at 6.1 million each.
Uh what? While these players have been making 6.1 million they've won a combined 2 Art Ross Trophies 1 Ted Lindsay and a Hart Trophy. They've produced well over a PPG at 6.1 Million. Look at some comparable players in terms of production. Joe Thornton is making 7 million+ Ryan Getzlaf is making 8 million+ Eric Staal 8 Million+ Best part of all is the Sedins' have outproduced all these players since signing the 6.1 million dollar contract. The last 3 times we've played a 82 game schedule a Sedin has led the Western Conference in scoring.

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06-11-2013, 10:30 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by Proto View Post
Perry who had 36 points in 44 games this year and 60 points in 82 games last year and who's shooting % has dropped for three straight years? Sounds to me like he's declining dramatically! His over-reliance on physical play has led him to decline physically at an earlier age and all the trends point to him bottoming out and declining for the rest of his career. Plus he only had 2 assists in 7 playoff games
No doubt he's not the same player as he is heavily weighed down by that SC ring on his finger.

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06-11-2013, 10:35 PM
  #135
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stop wearing it in games jeez

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06-11-2013, 10:44 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
It's not irrelevant, but it's being vastly overstated. Each extra offensive zone start is worth about 1/3 to 1/2 of a shot attempt. The Sedins are on for about 10 or 11 end zone faceoffs a game, so a 10% difference (say 65% vs. 55%) results in 1 extra offensive zone start per game. That extra zone start per game then results in about 25-35 extra shot attempts over the course of a season. This season the Sedins produced 1 goal roughly every 20-25 shot attempts, so a 10% increase in zone starts equates to about 1 to 1.5 extra GF while they're on the ice over an 82 game season. And of course players aren't in on 100% of the goals they're on for, so the actual effect on their numbers would be further diminished. We're talking maybe one or two extra 5-on-5 points in an 82 game season.


Yeah when you're talking about a huge swing between 80% and 20% there would be a noticeable effect, but the difference between Henrik's 63% this year and the 55% that scores of offensive players around the league get is essentially insignificant. Anyone pinning their criticism on that is either misinformed or has an axe to grind.
Your stats don't account for the effort a player must expend in a shift or in a game but the 63% was this year in 11 it was

Daniel 75%
Hank 71%
Burrows 71%

In 12 it was

Dan 80%
Hank 79%
Burrows 74%

So in reality just picking the last season when it was 66 for Dan and 64 for Hank is being less than complete here in the whole picture of things.

Over 3 years a 70/30 split is huge. Let's not also forget that some of those starts are when they are fresh after the other team has iced the puck and is tired.

It is extremely likely that it would be more than just 1 or 2 points a season over that 3 year time period, if their time had been at the league average for top line players.

The swing would probably work out the other way too in the GA column.

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06-11-2013, 10:46 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Goldrunner View Post
6.1 each of course ! Do you think one of the Sedins is valued much less then Zack Parise ?

6.1 in todays dollars is a discount. Mike Cammilari makes 6 million. That's what 6 gets you.
I guess if it's a series of 1 year deals, like someone suggested before the 6.1 might fly with the Canucks but it looks like it would be overpayment based on recent trends (last 3 years and playoff performance).

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06-11-2013, 10:58 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Goldrunner View Post
So how is Henrik Sedin not a discount at 6.1 in the next 2 or 3 years when Perry is taking 8.6 in 2 or 3 years ?

I said the Sedins are a discount even at their current cap hit for 3 or 4 more years. The fact that they are older is all taken up in salary inflation.
6.1 million each won't be a discount for very long if it even is next season.

Like I've stated before it's going to be very hard for them to ward of a 4th year in declining production given their aging, division shift and probability of less than 70% offensive zone starts (if they get less than 60 it's almost a given IMO).

Kesler and the other 2 centers are going to be hard pressed to produce if they are taking the majority of their starts in their own zone.

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06-11-2013, 11:06 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I guess if it's a series of 1 year deals, like someone suggested before the 6.1 might fly with the Canucks but it looks like it would be overpayment based on recent trends (last 3 years and playoff performance).
No. It does not look like an over-payment based on recent trends. Like the trends that lesser players are getting millions more. (Perise, Perry ect)

H.Sedin had more playoff points then Pavel Datsyuk from 09 to 13.

He also had more points in this years playoffs in 4 games then Perry had in 7.

6.1=underpayment

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06-11-2013, 11:12 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
The shorter sample, and the larger sample, both show the same thing: That Ozone start differences produce a marginal effect, if one at all.

I see that opendoor has pooled together stats from every corner to show the effects in a literal sense. Does it change your opinion at all?
I took a look at it and have some questions around it and will stress once again 65% and close to 80% is quite different not only in terms of actual derived production (which I think is being taken from total averages and the actual affect can't be isolated statistically but I could be wrong on that)

Quote:
We can take the larger sample and still infer the same thing: That the effect is marginal, if meaningful at all. Kesler, Samuelsson and Raymond seemed to do well under a system where the Sedins got to a higher share of Ozone starts. This year is when it was scaled back, but the Sedins were still excellent producers at ES without the "advantage" (the only time Ozone starts factor in BTW). The depth in many ways didn't do any better as a result. So I'm not sure what sample is going to show you here?

I went over how meaning full the O versus d zone starts were besides the production part of it. And the swing works both ways in terms of giving up points and chances to the other team.

Not sure are you talking about the Sedins doing well at ES without the advantage of Ozone starts in 13 though?

Daniel was still 3rd in the league, behind 2 rookies and Hank was 7th overall, with the only other top line player in the top 7 being Gaborik.

There advantage was less than the dramatic 80% of 12 yes but it was still a large advantage.

We'll get a much better idea next season but it's doubt full any new coach would give them 70% plus average they have enjoyed over the last 3 years as it might have stifled development of that secondary scoring the Canucks need to develop.

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06-11-2013, 11:25 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I took a look at it and have some questions around it and will stress once again 65% and close to 80% is quite different not only in terms of actual derived production (which I think is being taken from total averages and the actual affect can't be isolated statistically but I could be wrong on that)

I don't understand your last point. Isn't the argument here that the Sedins unduly have benefitted from an increased Ozone percentage, while hurting the production of other forwards in the process?

Based on the model provided by opendoor, the 15% listed above totals to about 2 goals more over 82 games... Which is saying that this cost the depth 2 goals over 82 games (giving the depth the benefit of being Sedin level efficient scorers). Is this significant?

If the actual affect cannot be quantified by statistics, and we want to keep things general, then I could just as easily point out that the Sedins have to face top Dpairs nearly every time they get those Ozone starts, so the wear on them also increases. Point is, based on the percentages, the effect is marginal.



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I went over how meaning full the O versus d zone starts were besides the production part of it. And the swing works both ways in terms of giving up points and chances to the other team.

What does this mean? What is the swing that works both ways?


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Not sure are you talking about the Sedins doing well at ES without the advantage of Ozone starts in 13 though?

Daniel was still 3rd in the league, behind 2 rookies and Hank was 7th overall, with the only other top line player in the top 7 being Gaborik.

There advantage was less than the dramatic 80% of 12 yes but it was still a large advantage.

We'll get a much better idea next season but it's doubt full any new coach would give them 70% plus average they have enjoyed over the last 3 years as it might have stifled development of that secondary scoring the Canucks need to develop.


The "advantage" isn't much of one, is the argument. Further, would curbing depth scoring by 2 goals over 82 games be grounds for "stifling" the development of the secondary scoring? ...?

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06-11-2013, 11:30 PM
  #142
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Originally Posted by Goldrunner View Post
No. It does not look like an over-payment based on recent trends. Like the trends that lesser players are getting millions more. (Perise, Perry ect)
time will tell on that front, both players have long term contracts and their cap hits might not look so bad in the middle of thsoe terms, we simply don't know right now.

We do know that the Sedins production has gone down in the last 3 years and there aren't playoff over performers by any stretch.

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H.Sedin had more playoff points then Pavel Datsyuk from 09 to 13.
Nice cherry pick to skip Dats 08 SC run but even then no sane hockey mind is going to agree with the assertion that either Sedin was better in the playoffs than Dats was from the 09-13 time period.

Dats was hurt for part of the 09 playoffs and was hands down the best player in the playoffs in the 1st 2 rounds in 11.

Also Dats played with the great Justin...man I forgot his name he is so good this year.

even with your selected stats here are their 3 lines

Hank 56-12-42-54 (-6)
Dats 58-15-34-49 (plus 20)
Daniel 53-18-31-49 (minus 3

Dats was a plus 20 despite playing top defensive shutdown minutes against the other teams top line over that time period.

Like I said up above, you are going to have a hard time finding any hockey mind or analyst that will take either Sedin over Dats in the playoffs in your select time period.

Or the regular season for that matter.

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He also had more points in this years playoffs in 4 games then Perry had in 7
Great another one year sample, it also was his 1st poor playoff season since his rookie season and he was at least an even player in the plus minus department

6.1=underpayment[/QUOTE]

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06-11-2013, 11:50 PM
  #143
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I don't understand your last point. Isn't the argument here that the Sedins unduly have benefitted from an increased Ozone percentage, while hurting the production of other forwards in the process?

Based on the model provided by opendoor, the 15% listed above totals to about 2 goals more over 82 games... Which is saying that this cost the depth 2 goals over 82 games (giving the depth the benefit of being Sedin level efficient scorers). Is this significant?
Like I said before I'm not sure that the model is actually saying that or if it is, how correct it is. you are after all asking how it replaces something that didn't exist.

In addition it's more than just the actual GF, and GA which is being missed here but more on that down below.

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If the actual affect cannot be quantified by statistics, and we want to keep things general, then I could just as easily point out that the Sedins have to face top Dpairs nearly every time they get those Ozone starts, so the wear on them also increases. Point is, based on the percentages, the effect is marginal.
They are more often than not facing those pairing regardless of where the face off is right?

You say the affect is marginal but Viggy had great faith in it, much more than any other coach in the NHL.






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What does this mean? What is the swing that works both ways?
Easy if it affects their offensive production it would also affect the GA and playing defense is more taxing than playing offense.


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The "advantage" isn't much of one, is the argument. Further, would curbing depth scoring by 2 goals over 82 games be grounds for "stifling" the development of the secondary scoring? ...?
Like I said, I'm not sold on the stats model here and even if that's the story the affect goes beyond just simple points it's about gaining confidence.

It's about gaining confidence and playing in good situations to succeed, that's why many coaches won't put rookie Dmen out in the defensive zone starts as often as veterans for instance.

There is a reason why 4 of the top 7 forwards in Ozone starts were rookies in the NHL this season.

My guess is that when they decline next year, which I think is likely, and their Ozone starts are under 60% it will be for different reasons from many on this board, like a new coaching strategy or some other such thing.

Ozone starts aren't the only thing but they aren't a minimal factor either.

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06-11-2013, 11:59 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by Goldrunner View Post
No. It does not look like an over-payment based on recent trends. Like the trends that lesser players are getting millions more. (Perise, Perry ect)

H.Sedin had more playoff points then Pavel Datsyuk from 09 to 13.

He also had more points in this years playoffs in 4 games then Perry had in 7.

6.1=underpayment
Well let's just say for argument sake that only scoring matter and nothing else, which isn't true at all but it's something we can measure

Hank and Dan are 27 and 28th in terms of a cap hit for forwards in the NHL last season.

Last year Hank was 20th in scoring and Daniel was 31st.

So production in terms of points was a bit better than their cap hits.

51-55

In terms of goal scoring it was below their Cap hits at 62nd and 74th

It's pretty hard to argue that they were discount type of players last year and it's not likely to get better next year, with only 1 forward making more money than them to bump them each down one peg on the list, Corey Perry ironically.

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06-19-2013, 01:08 AM
  #145
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One anomaly with the Sedins is their ratio of penalties drawn to taken is poor relative to most other elite forwards. Considering they are +150 or something like that the past 5 seasons, and they're in the other teams' zone most of the time...

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06-19-2013, 08:30 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Like I said before I'm not sure that the model is actually saying that or if it is, how correct it is. you are after all asking how it replaces something that didn't exist.

In addition it's more than just the actual GF, and GA which is being missed here but more on that down below.

Here is yet another breakdown of the zone start strategy as applied to the twins. Here, the singular plays are broken down over the course of a season, and a corresponding number attached to it.

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2012/02/21...shouldnt-care/

You can continue to believe the "model" is incorrect though. I do think it's more or less accurate, because of the logic used to get to a determination. Nothing I have seen to this point counters it.



Quote:
They are more often than not facing those pairing regardless of where the face off is right?

You say the affect is marginal but Viggy had great faith in it, much more than any other coach in the NHL.


So what? I still believe the affect is marginal. Multiple sources believe the same, and they have evaluated it to be what it is.

I'm unclear then why the Sedins are said to have cushy assignments in the Ozone that lead to undue inflation of their stats, when they consistently have to create offense against the top Dpairs and shutdown unit every time out. Ozone or otherwise... ?




Quote:
Easy if it affects their offensive production it would also affect the GA and playing defense is more taxing than playing offense.

Assumption. If anything, I would speculate that it's much harder on the Sedins in the Ozone, where they are far more active on the boards.

The net effect is still marginal, GF/GA or otherwise.




Quote:
Like I said, I'm not sold on the stats model here and even if that's the story the affect goes beyond just simple points it's about gaining confidence.

It's about gaining confidence and playing in good situations to succeed, that's why many coaches won't put rookie Dmen out in the defensive zone starts as often as veterans for instance.

There is a reason why 4 of the top 7 forwards in Ozone starts were rookies in the NHL this season.

My guess is that when they decline next year, which I think is likely, and their Ozone starts are under 60% it will be for different reasons from many on this board, like a new coaching strategy or some other such thing.

Ozone starts aren't the only thing but they aren't a minimal factor either.


It really doesn't matter if you are sold on it. There have been multiple looks into the effectiveness of this Ozone strategy, as well as its net effects. Most conclude the effect is marginal.

Confidence is a very subjective take to a more reasoned situation. If we quantify the net effect of this strategy to be 2~ goals over an 82 game span, somehow I don't think that has very much impact on confidence, on the whole.

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06-21-2013, 06:10 PM
  #147
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Cool, something we agree with. A couple things before continuing this somewhere else, not sure why you included random players that have yet to achieve any significant personal awards where they have never lead their peers at anything (except for Getzlaf with his fat contract ).
Thought I'd move the discussion here. Anyway, these are all players who have finished top 10 in scoring at least once in their careers, much like Daniel Sedin. Most would also be on pace for career numbers close to or exceeding Daniels. Figure if Daniel is a strong candidate for the HHOF with 1 top 10 scoring season then these players - and many more, these were just off the top of my head - should also be in the conversation.

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06-21-2013, 06:27 PM
  #148
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Should be interesting to see how the Sedins play under Torts.

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06-21-2013, 06:31 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by CanaFan View Post
Thought I'd move the discussion here. Anyway, these are all players who have finished top 10 in scoring at least once in their careers, much like Daniel Sedin. Most would also be on pace for career numbers close to or exceeding Daniels. Figure if Daniel is a strong candidate for the HHOF with 1 top 10 scoring season then these players - and many more, these were just off the top of my head - should also be in the conversation.
Finishing in the top 10 is a far cry from leading the league in scoring imo.

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06-21-2013, 06:48 PM
  #150
CanaFan
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Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: BC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
Finishing in the top 10 is a far cry from leading the league in scoring imo.
Not really. It's a few points more than the next guy. A fine accomplishment but hardly the be-all end-all of a player's value.

Rick Nash and Corey Perry have led the league in goals. Should they get into the HHOF for this?

Markus Naslund finished 2nd in scoring twice, which is arguably just as hard as leading it once. Maybe he should get in the HHOF for that?

Jose Theodore once won the Hart, arguably a more valuable trophy than the Art Ross. Should he get in?


Outlier seasons are a terrible way to justify a player's HHOF worthiness. Consistent or at least multiple seasons of elite play, rather than a single dominant season - even an Art Ross - are the most common criteria for HHOF inclusion.

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