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Subban wins the Norris!!!!! (per Reality)

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Old
06-12-2013, 07:07 PM
  #376
Estimated_Prophet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
True, but it does have some uses. By that I mean determining wether a player has been abnormally lucky or unlucky in a season. An average player that usually shots at 8% and jumps at 16% for a season, doubling his goal totals, didn't magically become a goal scoring machine. He was probably lucky, and is unlikely to repeat the exploit the next year. Meanwhile a player that usually shoots for 10% but only does 7% in a given year didn't become garbage all of a sudden and will most likely bounce back over time. Its a good tool when doing pools, most people just look at the previous season and expect players to continue progressing or regressing assuming the trend that has been going on the past 2 season (or past 10 games, with Leafs fans) will continue.

Comparing shooting % between players of course is completely useless, I agree, since it has almost nothing to do with how well a player shoots.
The stat is just as useless when being used to compare seasons with a single player. A drastic drop in shooting percentage is almost always 1 of 2 things or a combination of both.

1) Quality of linemates/opposition. Even when playing with the same linemates, when your center decides to be a bum that season the results will be reflected in your production and efficiency.

2) Change in play by the player himself. The highest percentage shot is a goalmouth rebound. If a player decides to play more of a perimeter game his % will go down but if he decides to drive the net for rebounds his % will go up.

Luck only plays a significant role in players who don't score many goals. When 2 or 3 goals represent a large percentage of a players total this result is reasonable to assume.

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06-12-2013, 07:27 PM
  #377
Andy
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Does anyone know when we actually find out the winners?

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06-12-2013, 07:34 PM
  #378
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Does anyone know when we actually find out the winners?
Saturday before the game me think

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06-12-2013, 07:48 PM
  #379
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
The stat is just as useless when being used to compare seasons with a single player. A drastic drop in shooting percentage is almost always 1 of 2 things or a combination of both.

1) Quality of linemates/opposition. Even when playing with the same linemates, when your center decides to be a bum that season the results will be reflected in your production and efficiency.

2) Change in play by the player himself. The highest percentage shot is a goalmouth rebound. If a player decides to play more of a perimeter game his % will go down but if he decides to drive the net for rebounds his % will go up.

Luck only plays a significant role in players who don't score many goals. When 2 or 3 goals represent a large percentage of a players total this result is reasonable to assume.
It doesn't really work this way. SH% varies wildly even when those changes you're talking about remain essentially static. Playmaker influence on linemate SH% ends up being very small, as is the variation in opposition shooting% suppressing skill.

What happens is that a player's ability to score on a particular scoring opportunity is influenced heavily by elements out of his control (shooting accuracy varies wildly for shooter and whether or not the opposing goalie makes the correct save selection is important). Goal events aren't common enough in a single season for you to expect the results to even out.

The chance of scoring on a particular shot tends to be 1 in 10 to 1 in 8 for forwards and about 1 in 6 for shots from scoring chance areas. Goals tend to be such low probability events that the random spread in results can be a significant factor.

Players also don't tend to change that much in their shooting locations to cause the shift your suggesting. I think what happens far more often is you remember the goal mouth shots when they go in and forget them when they don't so attribute the changes to that.

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06-12-2013, 08:08 PM
  #380
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
It doesn't really work this way. SH% varies wildly even when those changes you're talking about remain essentially static. Playmaker influence on linemate SH% ends up being very small, as is the variation in opposition shooting% suppressing skill.

What happens is that a player's ability to score on a particular scoring opportunity is influenced heavily by elements out of his control (shooting accuracy varies wildly for shooter and whether or not the opposing goalie makes the correct save selection is important). Goal events aren't common enough in a single season for you to expect the results to even out.

The chance of scoring on a particular shot tends to be 1 in 10 to 1 in 8 for forwards and about 1 in 6 for shots from scoring chance areas. Goals tend to be such low probability events that the random spread in results can be a significant factor.

Players also don't tend to change that much in their shooting locations to cause the shift your suggesting. I think what happens far more often is you remember the goal mouth shots when they go in and forget them when they don't so attribute the changes to that.
With all due respect....I believe that you are way off base. I have read your posts before and I do not remotely agree on this topic.

Once again....no disrespect intended and I don't want to insult you in any way with my opinion on the matter. Just going to have to agree to disagree on this one.

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06-12-2013, 08:51 PM
  #381
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
With all due respect....I believe that you are way off base. I have read your posts before and I do not remotely agree on this topic.

Once again....no disrespect intended and I don't want to insult you in any way with my opinion on the matter. Just going to have to agree to disagree on this one.
Well, you can have your opinion. But to the extent I've studied the matter I don't think your interpretation stands up to scrutiny. Its not an implausible opinion, but just because its plausible doesn't mean its really reflects what's going on.

If we're talking just Subban, we could say there was a situtational thing as he started getting feed by Markov on the PP, and Markov on the PP has a demonstrable impact on his linemates shooting effectiveness. But most situations don't have that kind of swing in linemate talent. Even playing with Crosby tends to have a relatively small impact compared to native skill.


The thing I think that needs to be realized is the biggest variable on whether a chance becomes a goal is what the goalie does. That's something almost entirely out of the shooter's hands.


To illustrate the point, there is no more stable combination of linemates and style of play for a goal scorer that Daniel Sedin with Henrik. His shot rate has remain consistently in between 9-10 per hour for the last 6 seasons 5 on 5. During that time his SH% has fluctuated massively from 7.5% to 13.2% per season.

Or look at Kunitz, Neal and Dupuis after joining the Pens. Their % went up only a %point each compared to career average playing with the best playmakers in the league.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 06-12-2013 at 10:41 PM.
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06-12-2013, 09:26 PM
  #382
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Oooooooo Yaaaaaaa

Heres to many more trophies to come!

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06-12-2013, 09:31 PM
  #383
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I figured out who the deciding judge was on PK winning. F%#@ing PK Norris!




Last edited by HabsSlappy: 06-12-2013 at 09:46 PM.
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06-12-2013, 10:21 PM
  #384
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I hope PK wins it. Any cap havoc reaped on the Habs is good for me!

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06-12-2013, 10:23 PM
  #385
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I figured out who the deciding judge was on PK winning. F%#@ing PK Norris!


Can I get this sized for an avi? Someone? Anyone?

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06-12-2013, 10:42 PM
  #386
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I hope next season after 10 games Bob MacKenzie says PK is the best player in the NHL then it will be official and we can stop hearing about EK

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06-13-2013, 12:02 AM
  #387
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Pierre McGuire thought we should trade Subban and the third overall pick (Galchenyuk) for the right to draft Nail Yakupov.

LOL.

It would have been the worst trade in Habs history.


Last edited by DAChampion: 06-13-2013 at 12:08 AM.
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06-13-2013, 12:12 AM
  #388
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Pierre McGuire thought we should trade Subban and the third overall pick (Galchenyuk) for the right to draft Nail Yakupov.

LOL.

It would have been the worst trade in Habs history.
imagine if pierre was our GM ... :d

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06-13-2013, 01:21 AM
  #389
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Pierre McGuire thought we should trade Subban and the third overall pick (Galchenyuk) for the right to draft Nail Yakupov.

LOL.

It would have been the worst trade in Habs history.
And I still see people saying he would be a good choice as a GM. Oh well.

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06-13-2013, 01:53 AM
  #390
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Pierre McGuire thought we should trade Subban and the third overall pick (Galchenyuk) for the right to draft Nail Yakupov.

LOL.

It would have been the worst trade in Habs history.
Well if Panthers offer Huberdeau plus a third for Jones, I am sure Roy will listen.

TBH, Yakupov may be worth Subban some day.

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06-13-2013, 02:07 AM
  #391
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Well if Panthers offer Huberdeau plus a third for Jones, I am sure Roy will listen.

TBH, Yakupov may be worth Subban some day.
Yeah, when Subban is 46 and Yak 41. Even then...

The obsession with youth over here is ridiculous.

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06-13-2013, 02:21 AM
  #392
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Yeah, when Subban is 46 and Yak 41. Even then... .
lol !!!!!!

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06-13-2013, 02:26 AM
  #393
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How is a Norris-trophy (speculation) winner (and probably perennial candidate) going to be worth trading for a guy who MIGHT be in the top 10 in scoring some day? Also consider how engrained PK Subban will be in Habs culture and all those Cups we gonna be winning with him. (Tired of that Team Canada interview, I want it with a Stanley Cup hat on.)

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06-13-2013, 03:28 AM
  #394
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PJ Stock is an absolute idiot...the Depends commercial sealed it!!
I sent him a number of tweets this year asking him if he still wears diapers but he never responded

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06-13-2013, 06:53 AM
  #395
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Well, you can have your opinion. But to the extent I've studied the matter I don't think your interpretation stands up to scrutiny. Its not an implausible opinion, but just because its plausible doesn't mean its really reflects what's going on.

If we're talking just Subban, we could say there was a situtational thing as he started getting feed by Markov on the PP, and Markov on the PP has a demonstrable impact on his linemates shooting effectiveness. But most situations don't have that kind of swing in linemate talent. Even playing with Crosby tends to have a relatively small impact compared to native skill.


The thing I think that needs to be realized is the biggest variable on whether a chance becomes a goal is what the goalie does. That's something almost entirely out of the shooter's hands.


To illustrate the point, there is no more stable combination of linemates and style of play for a goal scorer that Daniel Sedin with Henrik. His shot rate has remain consistently in between 9-10 per hour for the last 6 seasons 5 on 5. During that time his SH% has fluctuated massively from 7.5% to 13.2% per season.

Or look at Kunitz, Neal and Dupuis after joining the Pens. Their % went up only a %point each compared to career average playing with the best playmakers in the league.
Like I said, there is no way I can get into this without insulting you.

You are clearly a poster who is very interested in the game and you put a lot of effort into your analysis. I respect that, but at the same time I think that you are way off course with this line of thinking.

Once again, we will have to agree to disagree on this one

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06-13-2013, 09:11 AM
  #396
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I sent him a number of tweets this year asking him if he still wears diapers but he never responded
LOL...the diapers probably have the spoked wheel Bruins logo on them...

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06-13-2013, 09:20 AM
  #397
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
Like I said, there is no way I can get into this without insulting you.

You are clearly a poster who is very interested in the game and you put a lot of effort into your analysis. I respect that, but at the same time I think that you are way off course with this line of thinking.

Once again, we will have to agree to disagree on this one
He's right... Your argument that the reason a player's shooting percentage could drop is his centreman?! That makes zero sense. Do you know what shooting percentage even is? If your centreman is worse that would maybe result in less total shots and less total goals but it wouldn't affect the amount of goals you score PER shot (shooting percentage). At the very most, your linemates will result in your shots being from worse locations I guess but that's a huge reach. Shooting percentage is a combination of shooting skill, luck, and the goalie trying to stop the shots. And why would you even need to insult him to make your argument? If you need to insult him to make your argument it's obviously not a strong argument.

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06-13-2013, 09:36 AM
  #398
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How does shooting percentage depend on the goalie if most shooters face 30 or 40 goalies per year? Does it not average out?

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06-13-2013, 09:58 AM
  #399
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
It doesn't really work this way. SH% varies wildly even when those changes you're talking about remain essentially static. Playmaker influence on linemate SH% ends up being very small, as is the variation in opposition shooting% suppressing skill.

What happens is that a player's ability to score on a particular scoring opportunity is influenced heavily by elements out of his control (shooting accuracy varies wildly for shooter and whether or not the opposing goalie makes the correct save selection is important). Goal events aren't common enough in a single season for you to expect the results to even out.

The chance of scoring on a particular shot tends to be 1 in 10 to 1 in 8 for forwards and about 1 in 6 for shots from scoring chance areas. Goals tend to be such low probability events that the random spread in results can be a significant factor.

Players also don't tend to change that much in their shooting locations to cause the shift your suggesting. I think what happens far more often is you remember the goal mouth shots when they go in and forget them when they don't so attribute the changes to that.
Great post. Really couldn't have said it better!

Estimated_Prophet, one problem with what you are saying is that :

A. Shooting % is not an indicator of luck
B. Shooting % is useless anyways

It doesn't really work. Why aren't people using shot% as a stat more often if its truly related to the play of a player or his linemates? You stated its an useless stats, can't have it both ways...

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06-13-2013, 10:26 AM
  #400
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How does shooting percentage depend on the goalie if most shooters face 30 or 40 goalies per year? Does it not average out?
Look at the game not from the shooter's perspective but the goalies.

Think of it as a game of rock paper scissors, but one where the goalie wins 5 out of 6 times. The player makes a split second shot selection, the goalie makes a save selection simultaneously.

Modern save techniques make almost all shots potentially stoppable if you make the right choice executed correctly. Except for the rare unstoppable chance, for a goal to happen either the goalie, screwed up, guessed wrong, or something weird happened on the play like a deflection, causing the correct save choice to fail.

For the shooter, most of this is out of your hands. There are skills to maximize your chances of success(release, velocity, better location etc). But even for the best its like rolling a 6 dice and winning on a 6. Even a point blank one-timer fails 2/3rds of the time.

This is Patrick Roy's gift of probabilistic based goaltending to the league and why the 80's with their Oilers who could score on 1 out of 5 shots aren't coming back.

So when your dealing with low percentage events, sheer randomness is going to predominant for relatively small samples. For a ~20 goal scorer who gets his goals on about 3 chances per game, a season isn't long enough for things to entirely even out.

This is related to how a goaltender can take over or lose a playoff series. Go on a run of making the right choices like Anderson did and you can beat a team that heavily outplayed yours overall. But that doesn't mean you won't start making mistakes the next series. To a very real extent, the Habs and Pens didn't face the same goalie in this post season. By same token, Rask was all but invincible against the Penguins but got beaten 4 times by the Hawks last night.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 06-13-2013 at 10:33 AM.
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