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Roberto Luongo to... ANYWHERE!

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Old
06-12-2013, 05:02 PM
  #126
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Thats based off of a 20 game sample? IIRC aswell, 1 game this season (vs Detroit) had like a took him from .907 to .921 or somethign ridiculous?

* That Detroit game took him from .918 on the season to .907.
The power of a small sample size

So, small samples don't matter then eh?

This season was Schneider's first "elite" year in the NHL and the first season of his career in which he was anything close to a #1. Yeah, he put up good numbers during that time. But, it was only 30 games!

If Luongo's meh 20 games don't count for much, neither do Schneider's 30. In fact, Schneider has never played much more than 30 games in an NHL season.

I suppose then you'll agree that Schneider is not a proven #1, and cannot be considered elite. After all, by your own reasoning, its just the power of a small sample.

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06-12-2013, 05:09 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Thats based off of a 20 game sample? IIRC aswell, 1 game this season (vs Detroit) had like a took him from .907 to .921 or somethign ridiculous?

* That Detroit game took him from .918 on the season to .907.
The power of a small sample size
i was wondering where those stats came from ....

Luongo has a career .919 sv% in nearly 750 GP. His PO sv% is only slightly lower, even with the team meltdowns (and a couple that were on him.)

he has been the def'n of consistent in his career, and he's been vezina nominated and has an Oly gold (dont know where this 'disappointing on the international stage' comes from)

comparing him to guys who have had 1 or 2 good seasons is disingenuous

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06-12-2013, 05:12 PM
  #128
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So, small samples don't matter then eh?

This season was Schneider's first "elite" year in the NHL and the first season of his career in which he was anything close to a #1. Yeah, he put up good numbers during that time. But, it was only 30 games!

If Luongo's meh 20 games don't count for much, neither do Schneider's 30. In fact, Schneider has never played much more than 30 games in an NHL season.

I suppose then you'll agree that Schneider is not a proven #1, and cannot be considered elite. After all, by your own reasoning, its just the power of a small sample.
agreed, im not convinced he's the saviour .... all indications make it a good bet, but Luongo is proven.

id happily stick w Luo if the Schneids deal is right.

All this deriding Luongo is the result of a year of speculation & annoyance on the part of fans, fueled by the Toronto media, which badmouths him at every step

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06-12-2013, 05:12 PM
  #129
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So, small samples don't matter then eh?

This season was Schneider's first "elite" year in the NHL and the first season of his career in which he was anything close to a #1. Yeah, he put up good numbers during that time. But, it was only 30 games!

If Luongo's meh 20 games don't count for much, neither do Schneider's 30. In fact, Schneider has never played much more than 30 games in an NHL season.

I suppose then you'll agree that Schneider is not a proven #1, and cannot be considered elite. After all, by your own reasoning, its just the power of a small sample.
When you have played ~800 games in the NHL you really shouldn't put a heavy weight on a 20 game sample. (again, refer to how 1 game took him from .917 to .907)

Where did I call Schneider elite? I have said it before, and I will say it again, at this current time I believe Luongo is the better of the 2 goalies.

Cory Schneider has played a total of 88 games in the last 3 seasons... its not a huge sample. But in that 88 game sample hes averaged out at .931% Those 20 games at .927 really aren't an outlier.

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06-12-2013, 05:16 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
When you have played ~800 games in the NHL you really shouldn't put a heavy weight on a 20 game sample. (again, refer to how 1 game took him from .917 to .907)

Where did I call Schneider elite? I have said it before, and I will say it again, at this current time I believe Luongo is the better of the 2 goalies.

Cory Schneider has played a total of 88 games in the last 3 seasons... its not a huge sample. But in that 88 game sample hes averaged out at .931% Those 20 games at .927 really aren't an outlier.
So, you will concede that Schneider is not a #1 goalie? After all, he has only played that role in a grand total of 30 games. The remainder of those 88 games he has been a #2 (and sometimes not even that).

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06-12-2013, 05:21 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
So, you will concede that Schneider is not a #1 goalie? After all, he has only played that role in a grand total of 30 games. The remainder of those 88 games he has been a #2 (and sometimes not even that).
In the same way Evgeni Malkin isn't a #1 Center, sure.

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06-12-2013, 05:42 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
So, you will concede that Schneider is not a #1 goalie? After all, he has only played that role in a grand total of 30 games. The remainder of those 88 games he has been a #2 (and sometimes not even that).
I really don't see what you're trying to prove here, unless your only intentions are to frustrate other Canucks fans.

In any career an employer is going to want to see your whole body of work in that field, not just a small sample. Luongo has nearly 750 games played, his value is determined by his accomplishments throughout his career, to nit pick and judge completely on a single season where he played the fewest games in a single NHL season in his career is ridiculous.

Schnieder on the other hand has very few career games to judge in comparison, and 30 games played sits as one of his busiest seasons to date, so is that season far to judge? I would say so.

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06-12-2013, 05:44 PM
  #133
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In the same way Evgeni Malkin isn't a #1 Center, sure.
Malkin, unlike Schneider, has played in a #1 role over the course of a full 80 game season. And, he has shown that he can play at an elite superstar level over extended periods of time. You could argue that he has not been a #1 center because he happens to be on the team with Crosby, but that is not the same situation at all at all.

The sample size issue doesn't exist for Malkin, because he has shown that he can play at that level for many seasons.

Schneider, in contrast, has yet to prove he is a true #1. He was a backup for his entire carrer, and was only the go to guy for 30 games.

Sorry, but if Luongo's 20 games tell us nothing then the same is true of Schneider's 30 games.

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06-12-2013, 05:46 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by nlnl09 View Post
I really don't see what you're trying to prove here, unless your only intentions are to frustrate other Canucks fans.

In any career an employer is going to want to see your whole body of work in that field, not just a small sample. Luongo has nearly 750 games played, his value is determined by his accomplishments throughout his career, to nit pick and judge completely on a single season where he played the fewest games in a single NHL season in his career is ridiculous.

Schnieder on the other hand has very few career games to judge in comparison, and 30 games played sits as one of his busiest seasons to date, so is that season far to judge? I would say so.
1) The Bolded part... you hit the nail on the head my friend!

2) A 20 game sample holds little weight regarding a guy who played 750 games. Its like judging a goalies season on 1 bad game...

3) In 88 games Schneider has maintained a .931 save %. 30 games at .927 isn't an outlier.

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06-12-2013, 05:47 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
So, you will concede that Schneider is not a #1 goalie? After all, he has only played that role in a grand total of 30 games. The remainder of those 88 games he has been a #2 (and sometimes not even that).
Just curious, but what are you trying to achieve here? Why are you trying to get Canucks fans to admit Schneider isn't a #1 goalie? It seems a rather pointless exercise IMO, so naturally I'm curious what your impetus is.

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06-12-2013, 05:47 PM
  #136
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I really don't see what you're trying to prove here, unless your only intentions are to frustrate other Canucks fans..
I'm having a little fun on a chatboard. Why are you here?


Quote:
Originally Posted by nlnl09 View Post
In any career an employer is going to want to see your whole body of work in that field, not just a small sample. Luongo has nearly 750 games played, his value is determined by his accomplishments throughout his career, to nit pick and judge completely on a single season where he played the fewest games in a single NHL season in his career is ridiculous.
.
Nabokov has an illustrous career. He played at an extremely high level for many seasons. But, he was mediocre for much of last year at best. Should we ignore his recent preformance because of his fantastic career?

The value of a player is not judged by the sum of his career. It is judged by what he can do NOW, and recent performances are a much better indicator of that then past performances.

We all view Schneider as elite because he has recently shown signs of being a true #1. Luongo, on the other hand, was not at the level as he has been in the past and that raises legitimate questions about where his career will go next.

If that wasn't true, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

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06-12-2013, 05:52 PM
  #137
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1) The Bolded part... you hit the nail on the head my friend!

2) A 20 game sample holds little weight regarding a guy who played 750 games. Its like judging a goalies season on 1 bad game...

3) In 88 games Schneider has maintained a .931 save %. 30 games at .927 isn't an outlier.

He was never a number one before. He wasn't facing the other team's best every night, having to get up in the morning knowing he was "the guy" etc. Schneider has had exactly 30 games in that role. Nuck fans continually try to portray him as an elite #1 based on a very small sample.

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06-12-2013, 05:54 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post

The sample size issue doesn't exist for Malkin, because he has shown that he can play at that level for many seasons.

Schneider, in contrast, has yet to prove he is a true #1. He was a backup for his entire carrer, and was only the go to guy for 30 games.

Sorry, but if Luongo's 20 games tell us nothing then the same is true of Schneider's 30 games.
Calling Schneider a backup/not #1 has zero context to it. The same way me saying Malkin is the 2nd best center on his team has zero context.

Over 82 games he's managed a .931 save %. Its 10 less games than Tuuka Rask over the last 3 years. Should we say Tuuka isn't a true starting goalie?

Also, the 20 game sample size for Luongo is skewed by 1 game which is the difference between a .907 season and a .917 season. But lets totally weight 20 games > an 750 game sample

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06-12-2013, 05:59 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Calling Schneider a backup/not #1 has zero context to it. The same way me saying Malkin is the 2nd best center on his team has zero context.

Over 82 games he's managed a .931 save %. Its 10 less games than Tuuka Rask over the last 3 years. Should we say Tuuka isn't a true starting goalie?

Also, the 20 game sample size for Luongo is skewed by 1 game which is the difference between a .907 season and a .917 season. But lets totally weight 20 games > an 750 game sample

And, let's weigh a player's entire career and pretend that recent performances don't matter!

Schneider has yet to have a full 80 game season as a #1. You can spin that anyway you want, but it is true. If Luongo's meh 20 games prove nothing, than Schneider's 30 games as #1 also prove nothing.

As for Rask, I'm not the one arguing that recent performances should be ignored - that's your claim.

Personally, I think that Rask and Schneider are both true #1's, and I think Luongo is going to need to bounce back and demonstrate he is elite again.

Right now, I don't think he is the clear top 10 guys you make him out to be. He could be again, but that remains to be demonstrated.

You guys shouldn't get so bent out of shape. I'm just playing devil's advocate here. It is all in good fun.

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06-12-2013, 06:04 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Schneider has yet to have a full 80 game season as a #1. You can spin that anyway you want, but it is true.

If Luongo's meh 20 games prove nothing, than Schneider's 30 games as #1 also prove nothing.
Last post I am going to make on the topic.
- Feel free to find an expert that is bearish on Schneider as a #1.
I think we can agree your in the minority.

- I can give you a 19 game sample this season where Luongo was a .917 goaltender.
Thats the beauty of a small sample size...

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06-12-2013, 06:05 PM
  #141
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What about

Minnesota
Roberto Luongo
Max Lapierre (rights)
Mason Raymond (rights)

Vancouver
Dany Heatley (Van buys him out)
Cal Clutterbuck
Kyle Brodziak
Zenon Konopka

Keep in mind subtracting Heatley + Backstrom = 13.5 mil in cap (minus 5.3) = 8.2 million in gained cap space.
I'd do this deal. Lou would do well in Minny given the team's upward direction.

I'd even want to give Heatley a handshake on the second line if it was workable under the cap.

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06-12-2013, 06:05 PM
  #142
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Last post I am going to make on the topic.
- Feel free to find an expert that is bearish on Schneider as a #1.
I think we can agree your in the minority.

- I can give you a 19 game sample this season where Luongo was a .917 goaltender.
Thats the beauty of a small sample size...

When did I say I was "bearish on Schneider"?

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06-12-2013, 06:27 PM
  #143
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Yeah, he put up good numbers during that time. But, it was only 30 games!

If Luongo's meh 20 games don't count for much, neither do Schneider's 30. In fact, Schneider has never played much more than 30 games in an NHL season.

I suppose then you'll agree that Schneider is not a proven #1, and cannot be considered elite.
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So, you will concede that Schneider is not a #1 goalie? After all, he has only played that role in a grand total of 30 games. The remainder of those 88 games he has been a #2 (and sometimes not even that).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Schneider, in contrast, has yet to prove he is a true #1. He was a backup for his entire carrer, and was only the go to guy for 30 games.

Sorry, but if Luongo's 20 games tell us nothing then the same is true of Schneider's 30 games.

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He was never a number one before. He wasn't facing the other team's best every night, having to get up in the morning knowing he was "the guy" etc. Schneider has had exactly 30 games in that role. Nuck fans continually try to portray him as an elite #1 based on a very small sample.
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Schneider has yet to have a full 80 game season as a #1. You can spin that anyway you want, but it is true. If Luongo's meh 20 games prove nothing, than Schneider's 30 games as #1 also prove nothing.
.




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When did I say I was "bearish on Schneider"?
Sounds pretty bearish

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Old
06-12-2013, 06:38 PM
  #144
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Not sure I follow here.
meant < lol

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06-12-2013, 06:40 PM
  #145
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Sounds pretty bearish
You are playing games here, snipping what I said out of context. And, even in all you took out of context. I never once said I wasn't optimistic about Schneider. I simply said he was relatively unproven. And he is.

YOU were the one who argued that small sample sizes don't matter. And, my point was that if YOU are going to make that argument then you should neither make a big deal out of Luongo's 20 games or Schneider's 30 games.

I, on the other hand, argued that recent performances do matter.

The point of the entire debate was that it is hypocritical to say "Let's ignore a short chunk of Luongo's career" and "let's make a big deal out of Schneider's recent 30 games" at the same time.

You're working both sides of the street.

Either small samples sizes matter, or they don't.

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06-12-2013, 07:02 PM
  #146
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You are playing games here, snipping what I said out of context. And, even in all you took out of context. I never once said I wasn't optimistic about Schneider. I simply said he was relatively unproven. And he is.

YOU were the one who argued that small sample sizes don't matter. And, my point was that if YOU are going to make that argument then you should neither make a big deal out of Luongo's 20 games or Schneider's 30 games.

I, on the other hand, argued that recent performances do matter.

The point of the entire debate was that it is hypocritical to say "Let's ignore a short chunk of Luongo's career" and "let's make a big deal out of Schneider's recent 30 games" at the same time.

You're working both sides of the street.

Either small samples sizes matter, or they don't.
I think the question is to what extent do they matter. Have Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Neal all become useless players since they didn't get any points in their most recent playoff series? I mean, either small sample sizes matter or they don't, right?

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06-12-2013, 07:09 PM
  #147
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post

You're working both sides of the street.

Either small samples sizes matter, or they don't.
My argument was Luongos 20 game sample was skewed by an extreme outlier and not an accurate reflection when compared to his body of work.
(20 games @.907, 19 games @.917.. which more closely resembles his career average)

I also said Schneiders last 30 games where he posted a .927 (although a small sample) are not out of line with his 3 year 88 game sample of .931.

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06-12-2013, 07:54 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
My argument was Luongos 20 game sample was skewed by an extreme outlier and not an accurate reflection when compared to his body of work.
(20 games @.907, 19 games @.917.. which more closely resembles his career average)

I also said Schneiders last 30 games where he posted a .927 (although a small sample) are not out of line with his 3 year 88 game sample of .931.
This is doublethink.

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06-12-2013, 08:28 PM
  #149
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This is doublethink.
Heres the issue.
Over ~750 games Lu has averaged ~.920 (im too lazy to look up actual numbers).
In 19 games this season, Lu was .917. There was one game that dumps his season save percentage to .907.

Do you actually think he is a .907 goaltender, or was this just an issue of sample size and outliers?

RE Schneider: I never weighed his stats/30 games. That was other posters.
I said Schneiders .927 in the last 30 is in line with his .931 over his last 88 games (which is a more reasonable sample)

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06-12-2013, 08:33 PM
  #150
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Heres the issue.
Over ~750 games Lu has averaged ~.920 (im too lazy to look up actual numbers).
In 19 games this season, Lu was .917. There was one game that dumps his season save percentage to .907.

Do you actually think he is a .907 goaltender, or was this just an issue of sample size and outliers?

RE Schneider: I never weighed his stats/30 games. That was other posters.
I said Schneiders .927 in the last 30 is in line with his .931 over his last 88 games (which is a more reasonable sample)

KZ, you are a good guy and I appreciate you indulging me while I played devil's advocate.

The irony,btw, is that I make my living as a social scientist. I have to deal with issues related to sample size and outliers every day!

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