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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk 11.0

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06-12-2013, 10:20 PM
  #151
Ghostki
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
I prefer to write about and discuss probabilities and not possibilities. It leads to a much more fruitful and productive discussion. What is a mock other than an effort to predict, whether assuredly or otherwise, what will happen at the draft?
The issue with your statement is that the "probabilities" you talk about are from YOUR assessments, which in truth, are based on your personal analysis/obeservations. So what are "probabilities" for you are perceived as possibilities for others. Same thing basically. Apart from 4-5 players, it's quite impossible to extrapolate any probability in truth.

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06-12-2013, 10:21 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Shutdown View Post
You still have to take a chance on a guy like that if he's available in the 6th or if the Habs can deal for a 5th. Nick Ebert went from a potential top 10 pick to Mr. Irrelevant inside a 15 month span, that's not a bad gamble to take. To a lesser extent, Saad, who was accused of the same things you're reading about Fasching, went from top 10 to mid 2nd round. Maybe Saad's draft season wasn't as bad as Fasching's but he still fell because of inconsistency and lack of drive in his game.

If he's there at the right spot, Fasching is not a terrible option.
At that point, it's a boom or bust thing, so the risk is significantly low. Fasching is also a guy with a lot of trying family issues -- maybe that played into what he was going through at the time the obverver from the above link evaluated him, who knows. The piece about Fasching in THN, is heartwrenching.

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06-12-2013, 10:22 PM
  #153
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
Erne....or....Hartman...or...Rychel...or...Mantha at pick number 25?
Mantha has clearly the greatest upside...could be the boom/bust player of the group...
Erne and Hartman...the safe picks.
Rychel...good player...though my last choice among the group.

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06-12-2013, 10:25 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
For whoever doesn't like Mantha for our pick at 25....and let say you are amongst his "haters".....is he a total ND for you? Where would you take him?
Don't know exactly, but a kid that big who can skate and has hands and a laser shot, I mean if there were no questions about him he would be a top 10 pick. Hard to believe a guy who has gotten this far has no work ethic. On the soft issue, if he does play that way, lots of big guys aren't into contact. Like I said elsewhere, if he is a bigger Ryder who pops in 30, you know that's pretty damn good for a late 1st. Remind anybody of Eric Daze ? Thoughts on De La Rose anyone ?

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06-12-2013, 10:25 PM
  #155
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
Hey boys...Grant offers an opinion...nothing more...if he thinks McCarron has incredible potential than I feel Grant's opinion and analysis is overrated.
Opinions are not all equal, even if we're all entitled to one. I'd venture to say his opinion if far more "educated" than yours or mine or any other armchair head scout.

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06-12-2013, 10:28 PM
  #156
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Originally Posted by hogtownhabsfan View Post
From what I have seen of him, he appears to move very well in a short area for his size.


But in terms of his ability to skate on the rush, I think he's similar to Latendresse, which is not a compliment (and I always like Lats). All in all, I think he is quite comparable to Latendresse. Latendresse never really put it together though, and McCarron still has a chance to.
Its mental, if Tender chose to drive the net and battle in front he would be, injuries aside, a real good top 6, but he thinks hes Stephane Richer, and hes wrong.

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06-12-2013, 10:31 PM
  #157
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If Bailey is taken at pick number 55...I would seriously consider...Jordan Subban...Pk claims Jordan is the most competitive of the three Subbans. He is great skater...plays big though small in stature. He could be a better version of Krug...small version of PK...but as aggressive or more!!!

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06-12-2013, 10:34 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
If Bailey is taken at pick number 55...I would seriously consider...Jordan Subban...Pk claims Jordan is the most competitive of the three Subbans. He is great skater...plays big though small in stature. He could be a better version of Krug...small version of PK...but as aggressive or more!!!
I am for us taking Subban but in the third. I think that there will be better players available in the second.

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06-12-2013, 10:35 PM
  #159
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
For whoever doesn't like Mantha for our pick at 25....and let say you are amongst his "haters".....is he a total ND for you? Where would you take him?
Thing is, I'm no scout and most of my draft knowledge comes from here and guys like you, WTK, Grant and some other posters. For the last few weeks, WTK's opinion on Mantha have really brought the whole board down on him (and I don't blame WTK for that), but like it or not, it kind of affected my own opinion on him.

Anyway I've never seen the guy play, unlike some guys who took part in the U-18 tournament, so all I'm seeing is stats and some scouting reports. At the end of the day, he is a 6'4 local guy who scored 50 goals last season in the Q, which makes me wonder why he would even be available at 25.

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06-12-2013, 10:36 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by Richiebottles View Post
I am for us taking Subban but in the third. I think that there will be better players available in the second.
I would be surprised if he is still available at 71 or at 85 when we pick.

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06-12-2013, 10:38 PM
  #161
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I would take Mccarron over Hartman any day of the week ! He is already huge and will go get some good experience in College. Will probably take a little more time to develop but he could become a really good PWF winger for us. I actually would be quite happy with this pick. Wish he was going to somewhere like Minnesota though.

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06-12-2013, 10:41 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Richiebottles View Post
I would take Mccarron over Hartman any day of the week ! He is already huge and will go get some good experience in College. Will probably take a little more time to develop but he could become a really good PWF winger for us. I actually would be quite happy with this pick. Wish he was going to somewhere like Minnesota though.
I would take Hartman...the sure thing...grit...a player hard to play against...plays really well at both ends of the ice.

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06-12-2013, 10:41 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
I would be surprised if he is still available at 71 or at 85 when we pick.
Agreed someone with nothing to lose will take their chances with him just because of his name (especially if big brother PK really is a Norris winner) I want Jordan badly... But more importantly I don't want Boston to get him

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06-12-2013, 10:41 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by Playoff Beard View Post
Thing is, I'm no scout and most of my draft knowledge comes from here and guys like you, WTK, Grant and some other posters. For the last few weeks, WTK's opinion on Mantha have really brought the whole board down on him (and I don't blame WTK for that), but like it or not, it kind of affected my own opinion on him.

Anyway I've never seen the guy play, unlike some guys who took part in the U-18 tournament, so all I'm seeing is stats and some scouting reports. At the end of the day, he is a 6'4 local guy who scored 50 goals last season in the Q, which makes me wonder why he would even be available at 25.
Well he would based on the reason why people don't even want to pick him at 25. Yet, there's a freakin reason where a guy like him should fall though. Don't pick him at 25...I don't care really. We will have somebody great at 25 anyway. But...34....36? I mean at one point, a guy like that will not fall at 55...

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06-12-2013, 10:43 PM
  #165
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Hi all,

I had some time so I compiled all of the more common mock drafts (11) that I can find (mkeens, pronman, iss, espn, Tsn button, draft guys, draft site...) and did a consensus mock using those rankings. Obviously not 100% since teams go off board but a good indication on where hockey minds that do this for a living evaluate these players. if you have any other pro mocks, I can add them to the mix.

In regards to our position at 25 and assuming a more expected draft, we would have some awesome picks to choose from.

Personally, I like what I hear about Zykov, Burakovsky and Rychel,

compiled mock draft

prospects average Rk

Nate Mackinnon 1.7
Seth Jones 1.8
Jonathan Drouin 2.5
Aleksander Barkov 4.5
Valeri Nichushkin 5.1
Elias Lindholm 6.4
Sean Monahan 7.3
Darnell Nurse 9.8
Nikita Zadorov 10.2
Max Domi 11.7
Alex Wennberg 14.5
Rasmus Ristolainen 14.5
Hunter Shinkaruk 15.0
Bo Horvat 15.1
Ryan Pulock 16.8
Josh Morrissey 18.1
Anthony Mantha 18.8
Curtis Lazar 19.5
Adam Erne 19.8
Valentin Zykov 21.4
Andre Burakovsky 22.8
Frederik Gauthier 23.5
Zach Fucale 24.0
Samuel Morin 25.0
Kerby Rychel 25.3
Madison Bowey 26.0
Robert Hagg 26.4
J.T. Compher 27.4
Nic Petan 27.5
Ryan Hartman 27.5
Morgan Klimchuk 28.0
Micro Mueller 28.1
Steve Santini 29.5
Artturi Lehkonen 29.5
Jason Dickinson 29.6
Pavel Buchnevich 29.7
Emile Poirier 29.7
Shea Theodore 29.9
Chris Bigras 30
Laurent Dauphin 30+
Jacob De La Rosa 30+
Dillon Heatheringtn 30+
Ian McCoshen 30+
Michael Mccarron 30+
Connor Hurley 30+
Jordan Subban 30+
Tommy Vannelli 30+

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06-12-2013, 10:44 PM
  #166
Playoff Beard
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Dream scenario were teams ahead of us go off the board and two or more of those players drop to 25, who do you pick. These were "consensus" top 20 picks who I've seen drop pas 25 in some scouts mocks/rankings.

Shinkaruk
Lazar
Wennberg
Domi
Horvat
Erne

Lazar for me.

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06-12-2013, 10:49 PM
  #167
Marc the Habs Fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
For whoever doesn't like Mantha for our pick at 25....and let say you are amongst his "haters".....is he a total ND for you? Where would you take him?
He basically is for me. Right now, worst case scenario on my list is we get stuck with Mantha or Rychel...

I'd take him at 34 though.

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06-12-2013, 10:49 PM
  #168
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
I would take Hartman...the sure thing...grit...a player hard to play against...plays really well at both ends of the ice.
Let me ask you this though. Would you rather have a guy who will most likely be a solid NHL winger with grit who can score 50 or 60 points a year and is physical or a guy who might become a second line center but will most likely become a 3rd line center shutdown type of player. Even if Mccarron doesnt pan out like he should he will be an asset because of his size alone. I really see hartman as a player who yes will play in the NHL but will only get 30 points per year. Makes me think of Rich Perverley. You need those type of guys but you draft them with your 4rth and 5th round picks.

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06-12-2013, 10:51 PM
  #169
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Also hope we get Hudson Fashing (spell check) amazing story. Really a character guy who if he puts all the tools together can be a good player. He will be in good hands with the Gophers. (Someone correct me if he isnt going there)

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06-12-2013, 10:52 PM
  #170
Playoff Beard
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
Well he would based on the reason why people don't even want to pick him at 25. Yet, there's a freakin reason where a guy like him should fall though. Don't pick him at 25...I don't care really. We will have somebody great at 25 anyway. But...34....36? I mean at one point, a guy like that will not fall at 55...
I might be wrong, but for me, if you have doubts about the guy (which I don't) and you don't want to pick him at 25, you shouldn't pick him at 34 or 36. My reasoning might be off, but the only reason he should fall is if the concerns about his attitude/dedication are true and if timmins has such concerns, I think he'll pass on him at 34 and 36 should he fall that low. If he does, I would have no problem with it since I trust Timmins and the scouting team. But as of now, I'd still be excited to get a player with that kind of potentiel at 25.

Anyway, the reason I'm so confused about Mantha might actually be because I've read so much about him on here.

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06-12-2013, 10:59 PM
  #171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Playoff Beard View Post
Dream scenario were teams ahead of us go off the board and two or more of those players drop to 25, who do you pick. These were "consensus" top 20 picks who I've seen drop pas 25 in some scouts mocks/rankings.

Shinkaruk
Lazar
Wennberg
Domi
Horvat
Erne

Lazar for me.
This is the case in point for the Habs to acquire another 1st round pick in the 13-19 slot without using our top six at the moment. It will be difficult to do at the draft, or at the #25th pick some of those names are tantalizing for more teams than the Habs I'm sure.

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06-12-2013, 10:59 PM
  #172
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Originally Posted by Richiebottles View Post
Let me ask you this though. Would you rather have a guy who will most likely be a solid NHL winger with grit who can score 50 or 60 points a year and is physical or a guy who might become a second line center but will most likely become a 3rd line center shutdown type of player. Even if Mccarron doesnt pan out like he should he will be an asset because of his size alone. I really see hartman as a player who yes will play in the NHL but will only get 30 points per year. Makes me think of Rich Perverley. You need those type of guys but you draft them with your 4rth and 5th round picks.
Central Scouting final rankings for North American skaters ranks McCarron 35.
Craig Button doesn't have McCarron in his top 75.
International Scouting Services...rank him 23.

Hartman will be the 50-60 point all-around player...McCarron must improve many facets of his game. Craig Button a former NHL scout and general manager obviously doesn't see McCarron as an elite player...I must agree totally with Craig Button.

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06-12-2013, 11:01 PM
  #173
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maybe MB can pick up a few of these extra picks

Kings 10 draft picks set...first pick will be

#57 in the 2nd round...
#88 (3rd round)
#96 (4th round Carolina)
#103 (4th round Philadelphia)
#118 (4th round)
#146 (5th round Montreal)
#148 (5th round)
#178 (6th round)
#191 (7th round Dallas)
#208 (7th round)

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Old
06-12-2013, 11:03 PM
  #174
Richiebottles
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Originally Posted by phillytennis View Post
Central Scouting final rankings for North American skaters ranks McCarron 35.
Craig Button doesn't have McCarron in his top 75.
International Scouting Services...rank him 23.

Hartman will be the 50-60 point all-around player...McCarron must improve many facets of his game. Craig Button a former NHL scout and general manager obviously doesn't see McCarron as an elite player...I must agree totally with Craig Button.
I don't really agree with most of Button's rankings but that is just me. I just don't get all the hype around Hartman. He is this year's JT Miller or Boone Jenner or Scott Laughton. I just see him as a very very safe pick when we need to have an impact player and we have enough character fowards that we can afford to gamble on someone like Mccarron and the potential he hold. Same goes for Mantha

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06-12-2013, 11:03 PM
  #175
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we should send drewiske back to them...

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