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Are we there yet?

View Poll Results: ARE WE THERE YET??
No. We are far from making the Cup Finals 14 16.28%
No. We are at least 7 years away. 3 3.49%
No. We are 5-7 years away 15 17.44%
Yes. We will be playing for the cup in 3-5 years 39 45.35%
Yes. We will be playing for the Cup in 3 years 15 17.44%
Voters: 86. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-12-2013, 12:10 PM
  #126
Lafleurs Guy
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Originally Posted by Habs View Post
No, I just view the team without the rose colored glasses. You just compared the key players from a Stanely cup team, a team still in the final four this year, to our bumbling little club.

You overvalue our players, and undervalue the rest of the league, just like management has the last 20 years. Do you watch the Kings , and the players you lumped ours as being equal?



While P.K and Doughty are similar, no question, the rest are still much better hockey players and have proven so. I personally don't like Penner that much, but the rest of the group bring such a nice mixture of size , sill and forechecking pressure that we simply do not have.

I'm also tired of people lumping Eller into some sort of Power Forward role, he never has been and never will be, and Patches is far from filling that role as well.

..oh, and the Price/Quick debate? lol? ... and not far back in this legendary threat, people are saying they would take P.K over Chara any day of the week.. .I seriously spit coffee all over the screen after these awesome comments.

I'm not trying to rip you apart, but this team's core just doesn't compare to the core in LA
Right now? No, of course not. In a few years we might though...

The question is 'are we there yet?' I'd say 'no' but with the pieces we ALREADY have (and will add to in this year's draft) we may actually be there in a year or two. The core of our team has been rebuilt. Like it or not, this is probably what we're going with over the next few years.

And it's really funny to listen to people talk about LA now because I used to get laughed at when I said that they'd be a good team someday... But that's how it goes. Young teams develop and get better. Some (LA) go on to win. Others (Washington) don't - at least not yet.

Our core going forward is: Price, Subban & Galchenyuk. Those players would compare to Quick, Doughty & Kopitar. I certainly think that trio could be as good or better in the future with the real wildcard being Galchenyuk.

Supporting core players we've got Max, Gallagher, Tinordi & Beaulieu coming up. That will help.

The REAL difference between us and a real contender is on the depth. We've got to get big strong character guys who will pay the price to win. Another Brandon Prust, a top four blueliner like Regher, depth guys like Scuderi... that's what we're really missing and we'll need to work on going forward.

I think the core is there (and that's the real hard part) now it's about building around those guys and finding character players to do it. Not to harp on this again but MB is really going to regret not signing PK long term as that will really come back to bite us in a few years.

This year coming up, it's critical that we add to the blueline. We HAVE to get bigger guys there who can stand up and protect the crease. Tinordi helps. Get another guy and we're in okay shape there. No way to know when Emelin comes back so we can't count on him. Ditto with Markov. We've GOT to add to the blueline and if we don't I could see us having a very rough year. BTW, anyone else wishing we still had McD? How much is that move hurting us now?

Also, in the next few seasons we simply can't have Pleks, Gionta, Gallagher and DD and expect to win anything. That HAS to be broken up. Two of those guys have to go and be replaced by bigger skilled players. Not easy to do but necessary if we really want to compete.


Last edited by Lafleurs Guy: 06-12-2013 at 12:41 PM.
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Old
06-12-2013, 12:13 PM
  #127
HiggsBozon
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No, we're not even close. You can't quantify how many years away from being there were are exactly, because you never know what can happen, but looking at the current state of the team, our leaders, our grit, our defense, and the level of goaltending we had? No. We're very far away from this year's final 4.

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06-12-2013, 07:02 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by HiggsBozon View Post
No, we're not even close. You can't quantify how many years away from being there were are exactly, because you never know what can happen, but looking at the current state of the team, our leaders, our grit, our defense, and the level of goaltending we had? No. We're very far away from this year's final 4.
CORRECT

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Old
06-13-2013, 12:58 AM
  #129
Talks to Goalposts
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Over the past 5 seasons of the new parity era to be in realistic contention for the Stanley Cup you had to be a certain level of good.

This roughly works out to be a team that is good enough 5 on 5 that they can expect to get about 55% of the goals scored at even strength, for ~+30 5 on 5 per year. Add another ~+10 for being good on special teams and you have a squad that will by about half a goal better than average in the regular season and a team that could be expected to get 48+ wins in 82 games.

Chicago, LA, and Detroit did it by superior puck control (puck possession of 54% or higher), Pittsburgh by virtue of Malkin+Crosby's offensive dominance and Boston through an absurdly effective defense+goaltending system. Boston, Pittsburgh and LA also had late season changes that made them considerable more effective in the playoffs (Pittsburgh changed coaches, LA dumped Johnson and added Carter, Seguin broke out for Boston in the playoffs). While Chicago and Detroit were outrageously good to begin with.

Montreal this season got into the fringes of how good some of these cup teams were. The got that magic 55% of the goals and they did it by having enough talent to have the puck about 55% of the time doing so well it didn't matter they got a crummy goaltending season. Plus got a fair amount of value out of their special teams play.

So its no longer merely a question of not enough talent. A strange as it may seem to a board that makes a habit of picking apart the flaws of every player on the roster, the Habs talent was standing up just fine this season. Its now become a matter of 1) not getting worse. 2) rounding out the weaknesses of the roster. and 3) finding the big change that can push a team over the top like PIT, LA and BOS got.

This isn't to say a cup is likely. There are too many good teams for a Cup to be likely for even the best squads. But if you want a Cup window its while the youth is on cheap RFA contracts and the veterans are still effective. When the Habs have the best PP duo in the league, one of the game's premier two-way defenders, a quality shutdown forward pair in Plekanec-Gionta, 3 lines of scoring talent and the personnel to make a strong PK.

The window isn't perfect right now, but its probably not getting any better 5 years from now. 5 years out Gallagher and Pacioretty are past their goal scoring peak, Plekanec and Markov are either a memory or on their last legs, Subban and Galchenyuk are both uber expensive and the current d corps except for Subban is all gone or past their best before date. If you trade Plekanec and Markov, you won't get younger players that are likely to be better than what they currently are. There is nothing in the pipeline worth waiting for, especially since Galchenyuk should come into his own over the next two seasons. So I say try and win with what you've got right now and see how close you can get.


Last edited by Talks to Goalposts: 06-13-2013 at 11:27 AM.
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Old
06-13-2013, 08:48 AM
  #130
Monctonscout
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Originally Posted by HiggsBozon View Post
No, we're not even close. You can't quantify how many years away from being there were are exactly, because you never know what can happen, but looking at the current state of the team, our leaders, our grit, our defense, and the level of goaltending we had? No. We're very far away from this year's final 4.
The gap from the best team to the 10th best team in the NHL is not very big. With any kind of goaltending and a bit more luck(injuries, calls) we get by Ottawa and who knows what happens in round 2.

Does our roster still have holes, sure it does, but so does every roster in the NHL INCLUDING the taem that will win the cup.

Do I think we had everything it took to win this year? Probably not, but we were not as far as you think.

The constant whining around here, some sound like opposing team fans coming here to troll. I don't see myself as an "all is bright, all is perfect here" type of fan but I can still see a path leading us to a cup the next 4-5 years. Doesn't guarantee it will happen, 29 other teams are trying to win too, but right now the roster and young players in place are as good or better than 75% of the teams in the NHL with about 25% being better.

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06-13-2013, 08:49 AM
  #131
Dean Ambrose
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We're 5-7 years away. We have the young players, we just need to let them develop and not rush anything. We need to give them good surroundings that'll allow them to reach their potential. Within 5-7 years, Galchenyuk, Subban and Price will all be in their primes. That's scary. Surround them with a good supporting cast and big playoff performers, get some big guys on D (Tinordi bulking up) and I think in 5-7 years, we can make some noise and be a final four team, maybe even more.

Could it happen in 3-5 years? Quite possibly if everything goes well and our players develop more quickly, but I think 5-7 is more realistic. 3-5 years would be great. The sooner the better.

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06-13-2013, 08:55 AM
  #132
bipolarhabfan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HiggsBozon View Post
No, we're not even close. You can't quantify how many years away from being there were are exactly, because you never know what can happen, but looking at the current state of the team, our leaders, our grit, our defense, and the level of goaltending we had? No. We're very far away from this year's final 4.
I agree.

I do not see our team contend unless we add a couple of better dmen, upgrade on the wings, and get a true number one center. Easier said than done .

I think next season will let us know what we truly have. A full season will allow us to gauge the quality of the players we have right now.

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06-13-2013, 10:31 AM
  #133
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I chose 3-5 years but if we do not see any significant changes like Gio and the smurf brigade moved then it will be 5-7 easily.

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06-13-2013, 10:32 AM
  #134
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Not close at all. Just look at this year's playoffs...

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06-13-2013, 11:20 AM
  #135
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
The window isn't perfect right now, but its probably not getting any better 5 years from now. 5 years out Gallagher and Pacioretty are past their goal scoring peak, Plekanec and Markov are either a memory or on their last legs, Subban and Galchenyuk are both uber expensive and the current d corps except for Subban is all gone or past their best before date. If you trade Plekanec and Markov, you won't get younger players that are likely to be better than what they currently are. There is nothing it pipeline worth waiting for, especially since Galchenyuk should come into his own over the next two seasons. So I say try and win with what you've got right now and see how close you can get.
I tend to agree with this. The key guys are Plekanec and Markov, when you add them to Galchenyuk & Subban we become a credible threat. We have a window right now while our vets are still elite and our youth is still growing. The question becomes can our youth become good enough before our key vets start losing their effectiveness.

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06-13-2013, 08:10 PM
  #136
Ohashi_Jouzu
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
The gap from the best team to the 10th best team in the NHL is not very big. With any kind of goaltending and a bit more luck(injuries, calls) we get by Ottawa and who knows what happens in round 2.

Does our roster still have holes, sure it does, but so does every roster in the NHL INCLUDING the taem that will win the cup.

Do I think we had everything it took to win this year? Probably not, but we were not as far as you think.

The constant whining around here, some sound like opposing team fans coming here to troll. I don't see myself as an "all is bright, all is perfect here" type of fan but I can still see a path leading us to a cup the next 4-5 years. Doesn't guarantee it will happen, 29 other teams are trying to win too, but right now the roster and young players in place are as good or better than 75% of the teams in the NHL with about 25% being better.
I think this is all pretty good perspective. Really, the difference here seems to be between expectations of being a "legit contender" and being a "Cup favourite". It's unrealistic to expect to produce a "Cup favourite" on demand given a 5 year window... salary cap is partially responsible, obviously, but so is the number of competing franchises who also have 4/5/whatever year "plans" (and there's only one winner every year).

Any time you start the playoffs with home ice advantage, you have a more than "legit" chance of winning the Cup. I don't think the success rate varies much between top seed or top 4 seed, for example. And this team is obviously less than 4/5 years away from being a top 4 seed in the conference, lol (2nd this year, obviously).

Obviously we're not quite there. Equally obviously, I submit, we're not that far away.

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06-13-2013, 09:32 PM
  #137
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We have lots of very good assets.

In this era of parity, we just need a few players added to top-9/top-4 and we could very well be a contender.

I see Leblanc, Kristo, Collberg, Holland, Dumont, Ellis, Dietz, Tinordi and Beaulieu.
Those players who could become regular NHL'rs by the end of next year.
It is very reasonable if not pessimist to expect at least four among these players to become regular in 2014-15.

The new team that MB has put in place will deliver proper development.

Those who are saying we are more than 5 years away are not looking at our core.
We need to have a PK from 80% to 85-90% (top-6) and to decrease our GA by 0.3 G/game (top-5).
This can be done in one or two years.


A few tweaks in the next two UFA season in the bottom-6/bottom-2.
For now, given Kaberle gone, we have three spots available.
Four if we consider that Emelin will not come back before November.

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06-15-2013, 12:44 AM
  #138
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Originally Posted by CPrice 31 View Post
We're 5-7 years away. We have the young players, we just need to let them develop and not rush anything. I think in 5-7 years, we can make some noise and be a final four team, maybe even more.

Could it happen in 3-5 years? Quite possibly if everything goes well and our players develop more quickly, but I think 5-7 is more realistic. 3-5 years would be great. The sooner the better.
3- 5 years would not be 'great' or lucky, it is our only window with this core.

I say it again and again. The NHL is younger now. 5-7 years means we are basically starting over, as we lose our core to UFA.

We need to compete seriously in 3 years, no more.

I think that means Bergy has to TRADE for one or two young key pieces very soon. Key pieces that will be in our window the next 4 years.

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06-15-2013, 12:51 AM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Sorinth View Post
I tend to agree with this. The key guys are Plekanec and Markov, when you add them to Galchenyuk & Subban we become a credible threat. We have a window right now while our vets are still elite and our youth is still growing. The question becomes can our youth become good enough before our key vets start losing their effectiveness.
Exactly. And that is why I say add some good youth through trade, if not this year, definitely next year, and no later. Also, do not fail in developing our draft class 2009-2012.

What no one is talking about is that we have a lot of picks this year, but no elite level picks. I do not see anyone drafted this year becoming a key part of our window the next 4 years. Maybe one player, and he will be a rookie in our first cup run.

It is also the case that Collberg, Kristo, Tiny, Hudon, Bozon, Dumont, Nate, Ellis, and the best of our last 3-4 year's picks are absolutely crucial to our 3-5 year window. If 2 or 3 of these guys can be highly effective players in 2 years, this improves our chances greatly. But this year's draft cannot be relied upon for our window.

We need to:

1. Develop our last 4 years of draft class very well, and produce at least 2-3 highly effective cup window players out of it.

2. Where our draft class fails, fill the holes and trade for the youth this year or next to put us over the top for this 4 year window.

3. Pick up older UFAs only when we are there.

It is already too late at the 2013 draft for our cup window with this core.


Last edited by bsl: 06-15-2013 at 01:13 AM.
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