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How aggressive should we be with our cap and acquiring other teams "leftovers"

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Old
06-14-2013, 01:17 PM
  #101
ps241
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Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
I think you're exactly right, truck. Most of those guys as UFA's may fetch 3.5-4.5 million.


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I have a feeling there will be a ton of similarly bad contracts given out this year...

I have a feeling that players like Stalberg, MacArthur, Raymond, Clarkson, Boyes & Bickell will all land 2nd line money and I would bet against most of them producing.
I dream of the day when we "just say no" to the UFA market. I heard a very good interview with the new Stars GM Jim Nill on Sirius NHL Network and he mentioned in Detroit they had been watching this closely and felt the UFA market was going to dry up based on teams all keeping their key long term pieces under contract via extensions or trading them if they couldn't be extended. I just see this as the most terrible time of year to be shopping given the supply vs. demand pressure.

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06-14-2013, 01:19 PM
  #102
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It all depends, do you want to commit to one year of a bad contract for a player that is underperforming (Peverley/Ballard, etc..) or do you want to wait until free agency and hopefully the prices aren't too ridiculous. Or maybe those players will be bought out and the prices won't be too high.

Personally I think the prices will be a bit too high, and especially term will be too much. I'd rather have one year of a bad contract with a chance of a reasonable extension then 3-4 years of a bad contract. I'd even be willing to give up draft picks for that to buy rights.

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06-14-2013, 01:19 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
That's the entire point of this thread. I think we should acquire players eligible for buyout, or rights to players, rather than hit free agency. We may come out completely empty handed if we try free agency.
So...

We should take over contracts of older players who aren't living up to their salary...

Instead of...

Signing a younger players who may not live up to their salary?



You are looking at acquiring expensive, under-performing assets any way you look at it.

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06-14-2013, 01:22 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
I dream of the day when we "just say no" to the UFA market. I heard a very good interview with the new Stars GM Jim Nill on Sirius NHL Network and he mentioned in Detroit they had been watching this closely and felt the UFA market was going to dry up based on teams all keeping their key long term pieces under contract via extensions or trading them if they couldn't be extended. I just see this as the most terrible time of year to be shopping given the supply vs. demand pressure.
I am amused by what Nil did last year. Signing Whitney and Jagr was extremely low risk. It didn't work and it cost them some money, but they traded Jagr and got a decent return for him. I would not be opposed to Chevy using a similar strategy if he doesn't see a viable long term option on the FA market.

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06-14-2013, 01:41 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
So...

We should take over contracts of older players who aren't living up to their salary...

Instead of...

Signing a younger players who may not live up to their salary?



You are looking at acquiring expensive, under-performing assets any way you look at it.
Take Rich Peverley for example. $3.25 for the next 2 seasons. Regularly a 40-50 point guy, and all around game is pretty good. Also has experience on one possibly two stanley cup winning teams. He had a down year, but most Bruins fans don't want to unload him, but the writing is on the wall. They need to get rid of somebody to sign Rask and others. They're in cap hell. We could get him plus Khudobins rights for a song.

How much would a 40-50 pt guy go for in free agency? Dupuis is a good example. Had one good year, and is going to be paid in free agency. It will be a 35+ contract, and odds are it will be more and longer than Peverleys contract. Yet on average they have very similar production over the past few years. Bozak reportedly wants 5 big ones, yet he only produced 28 points this season. Ribeiro is 33 but will get a contract that takes him past 35, that dude is going to get paid.

I think Chevy would be wise to sniff around for the leagues leftovers. There are teams that are in cap hell and we need to take advantage of that. Hell that's how we got Ladd and Buff.

Look at the age of a lot of the UFAs in this years crop, lots of very old players.

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06-14-2013, 02:09 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
Take Rich Peverley for example. $3.25 for the next 2 seasons. Regularly a 40-50 point guy, and all around game is pretty good. Also has experience on one possibly two stanley cup winning teams. He had a down year, but most Bruins fans don't want to unload him, but the writing is on the wall. They need to get rid of somebody to sign Rask and others. They're in cap hell. We could get him plus Khudobins rights for a song.

How much would a 40-50 pt guy go for in free agency? Dupuis is a good example. Had one good year, and is going to be paid in free agency. It will be a 35+ contract, and odds are it will be more and longer than Peverleys contract. Yet on average they have very similar production over the past few years. Bozak reportedly wants 5 big ones, yet he only produced 28 points this season. Ribeiro is 33 but will get a contract that takes him past 35, that dude is going to get paid.

I think Chevy would be wise to sniff around for the leagues leftovers. There are teams that are in cap hell and we need to take advantage of that. Hell that's how we got Ladd and Buff.

Look at the age of a lot of the UFAs in this years crop, lots of very old players.
Of course he should sniff, but I he won't be the only sniffer.

I really don't think we will see many money dump moves.

I don't see these trades being that cheap as people think either.

If Peverley is on the market, Chevy won't be the only GM in the mix.

Outside of a few cases you should be able to land a similar UFA for a similar salary...

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06-14-2013, 02:14 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
I am amused by what Nil did last year. Signing Whitney and Jagr was extremely low risk. It didn't work and it cost them some money, but they traded Jagr and got a decent return for him. I would not be opposed to Chevy using a similar strategy if he doesn't see a viable long term option on the FA market.
actually that was the former GM GM Joe......Nill just took over a month ago Truck, although I agree the strategy for Jagr was pretty good and they flipped him as a rental.

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06-14-2013, 02:25 PM
  #108
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actually that was the former GM GM Joe......Nill just took over a month ago Truck, although I agree the strategy for Jagr was pretty good and they flipped him as a rental.
I guess I am going to have to start paying attention to Dallas now. #DivisionRivals

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06-14-2013, 02:35 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
I really don't think we will see many money dump moves.
Ballard, Booth, Peverley, Bryzgalov, Briere, etc..

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I don't see these trades being that cheap as people think either.
Why not? Look at how cheap we got Ladd. It's that exact same situation right now except there's more teams in that kind of trouble, further putting downward pressure on prices.

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If Peverley is on the market, Chevy won't be the only GM in the mix.

Outside of a few cases you should be able to land a similar UFA for a similar salary...
Those UFAs are also older, and will command more salary and term. That's what this thread boils down to, should we strike and scoop up some of these "bargain" players, or wait until free agency and try to scoop up on average "older" players that will probably command longer term and cap hit? There's a risk either way.

One thing is for certain, this off season is going to be much more exciting than the last one. Chevy better be on the ball here.

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06-14-2013, 03:15 PM
  #110
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Can some explain this money
Puck thing to me? I know it's a strategy in baseball using the amount of times a player gets on base and it somehow equals runs or something. I know a big part of that is getting a bunch of really cheap players that get on base, and using 3 of them or something to replace a very expensive player.

I'm not sure how that equates to hockey, like at all. I know Gillis is said to be a "money puck" GM but all he really do was convince his star players to take less money, circumvent the cap and place players on LTIR. Frankly I think Gillis is a moron, and if the Vancouver example proved anything is that being money puck doesn't work.

I assume you could use shots or possession or something and reason out that if you have such and such amount I shots from one line you could equal Sidney crosby's pts or something. I don't think I really works in Hockey because it doesn't take into consideration how said star player affects the guys around him.

I dunno. Someone help me out here?

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06-14-2013, 03:25 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Can some explain this money
Puck thing to me? I know it's a strategy in baseball using the amount of times a player gets on base and it somehow equals runs or something. I know a big part of that is getting a bunch of really cheap players that get on base, and using 3 of them or something to replace a very expensive player.

I'm not sure how that equates to hockey, like at all. I know Gillis is said to be a "money puck" GM but all he really do was convince his star players to take less money, circumvent the cap and place players on LTIR. Frankly I think Gillis is a moron, and if the Vancouver example proved anything is that being money puck doesn't work.

I assume you could use shots or possession or something and reason out that if you have such and such amount I shots from one line you could equal Sidney crosby's pts or something. I don't think I really works in Hockey because it doesn't take into consideration how said star player affects the guys around him.

I dunno. Someone help me out here?
In baseball it's about valueing the stats that correlate to wins, not something like home runs, and getting those players instead. IE On base average > Batting Average

In hockey it would be looking at stats that correlate most closely to wins, which, contrary to many people's beliefs, is not goals. If we can agree that the bruins and the blackhawks are at least pretty close to equal, you can see that boston was able to make the final with less guys with 'star level' sniping talent, and more of a team of solid guys who keep up the pressure and just outchance opponents.

a "Moneypuck" guy is a guy that helps his team win more than his salary (often related to points) implies, by other measures, like possession and out-chancing opponents.

(Like Burmistrov Sarcasm but only sort of )

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06-14-2013, 03:26 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Can some explain this money
Puck thing to me? I know it's a strategy in baseball using the amount of times a player gets on base and it somehow equals runs or something. I know a big part of that is getting a bunch of really cheap players that get on base, and using 3 of them or something to replace a very expensive player.

I'm not sure how that equates to hockey, like at all. I know Gillis is said to be a "money puck" GM but all he really do was convince his star players to take less money, circumvent the cap and place players on LTIR. Frankly I think Gillis is a moron, and if the Vancouver example proved anything is that being money puck doesn't work.

I assume you could use shots or possession or something and reason out that if you have such and such amount I shots from one line you could equal Sidney crosby's pts or something. I don't think I really works in Hockey because it doesn't take into consideration how said star player affects the guys around him.

I dunno. Someone help me out here?
Essentially using advanced statistics to try finding a "bargain". While a player may not garner a lot of money his advanced stats show he's value is beyond what he earns. I think the application to hockey, which is a bit more complex to directly analyze things, is less valuable than it is to baseball. Even in baseball its usefullness is arguable.

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06-14-2013, 03:28 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Can some explain this money
Puck thing to me? I know it's a strategy in baseball using the amount of times a player gets on base and it somehow equals runs or something. I know a big part of that is getting a bunch of really cheap players that get on base, and using 3 of them or something to replace a very expensive player.

I'm not sure how that equates to hockey, like at all. I know Gillis is said to be a "money puck" GM but all he really do was convince his star players to take less money, circumvent the cap and place players on LTIR. Frankly I think Gillis is a moron, and if the Vancouver example proved anything is that being money puck doesn't work.

I assume you could use shots or possession or something and reason out that if you have such and such amount I shots from one line you could equal Sidney crosby's pts or something. I don't think I really works in Hockey because it doesn't take into consideration how said star player affects the guys around him.

I dunno. Someone help me out here?
We really just mean getting good value for player.

Like Wellwood who cost about same as some 4th line players but contributed like a 2nd/3rd line tweener.

Puck possession combined with SH% can actually really help you with such things.

If you look at someone who has been out-chancing opponents and has a really low on-ice sh% you can predict that they will probably score more points the next season. (we used similar stuff in AIH during last season stating Fehr would likely be better the next season, even prior to his Euro play)
Since contracts are almost strictly based on boxcar stats, you can get a player for lower value than what they will likely give you.

You can also see the opposite. For example: if TOR was to sign a contract to Kadri right now based on his boxcars, I bet he would be unlikely to live up to it.

I guess money puck is all about betting on probabilities and also selling high + buying low. Problem is probabilities can still backlash. Nothing is guaranteed but death and taxes.... and taxes...

Gillis isn't very good with money puck although he is open to it. I know he was the first GM to go to Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (that a few compatriots of Truck and I presented at). I know he attempted to up Hodgson's trade value by severely slanting his zone starts near the end (more severely than the Sedins) to give him as much scoring chances as possible... but don't know about the trade he ended up using with Kassian...


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Old
06-14-2013, 06:36 PM
  #114
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06-14-2013, 08:05 PM
  #115
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One player I don't hear any mention of is Tyler Kennedy. Being an RFA, he could become a casualty in Pittsburgh. While not exactly the 2nd line RW the JETS are looking for, he could be decent on the 3rd line. Pretty sure he has played some center as well.

I don't mind him as player, but I do dislike his man/pig face.

I do like the idea of trying to acquire the likes of Peverley, Kelly, MacArthur. These seem to be the level of moves that Chevy will make until we have enough organizational depth to make bigger deals with larger impacts.

One way another, it seems like there will be some diversity and quality in what becomes available as teams need to become cap compliant. Looking forward to it.

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06-14-2013, 10:41 PM
  #116
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No no no to Kennedy. Yes, he had a respectable playoffs, but he's been terrible in the regular season the past 130 games.

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06-14-2013, 11:07 PM
  #117
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No no no to Kennedy. Yes, he had a respectable playoffs, but he's been terrible in the regular season the past 130 games.
Ummm can I ask what you're basing this on? The advanced stats show that he's been a dominant 3rd liner the past few years besides this one, when he played with bad teammates. I would be all over getting him for a 2nd rounder.

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06-14-2013, 11:09 PM
  #118
allan5oh
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Playing around with Capgeek:

- Big 3 for 15 mil
- 1.8 for Burmi
- Redmond, Postma, Kulda, Peluso, get minimum raises
- Burmi, Jokinen, Scheif on third line
- Trouba down at the farm (for now)

Leaves us with 11 million for linemates for Kane, and a backup tender. Adding Weiss for 5 mill, getting Peverley and signing Khudobin leaves us with about 600k in space. But there's lots of problems:

1) No cap space to recall players
2) No room for error with injuries
3) Only Scheifele and Trouba can go down without waivers
4) Logjam at D, I don't think we'll re-sign Clitsome if we keep the other 3 RFAs
5) We can't be as aggressive as I thought

However these issues can be fixed by trading off Burmi, or Byfuglien. I can also see Chevy being fairly aggressive the following year. Jokinen and Stuart come of the books (Stuart might be traded at the deadline), and a lot of the players will be signed. In fact only Redmond, Kulda, Postma, and Peluso/Wright may need contracts (and raises probably). With the cap going up probably 6 mil, and 6.2 mil coming off our books, we'd be sitting very pretty.

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06-15-2013, 03:42 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
- Burmi, Jokinen, Scheif on third line
Why are we putting 3 centres on one line???

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Leaves us with 11 million for linemates for Kane, and a backup tender. Adding Weiss for 5 mill, getting Peverley and signing Khudobin leaves us with about 600k in space. But there's lots of problems:

1) No cap space to recall players
2) No room for error with injuries
3) Only Scheifele and Trouba can go down without waivers
4) Logjam at D, I don't think we'll re-sign Clitsome if we keep the other 3 RFAs
5) We can't be as aggressive as I thought

However these issues can be fixed by trading off Burmi, or Byfuglien.
Or a compliance buyout of Jokinen, which frees up $4.5 million cap space. That still leaves us with Little/Scheifele/Burmistrov/Slater as our 4 centers, with Wright and O'Dell also available. Our logjam is at centre, and buying out Jokinen makes the most sense. I could see Scheifele and Burmistrov as Kane's linemates. So we'd need to fill out a 3rd line, plus a goalie.

Defense isn't as abundant as you make it seem. Trouba/Kulda/Redmond/Postma are not guaranteed to make the big club. Hainsey is probably going to negotiate a big payday... somewhere else. We need Clitsome.

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06-15-2013, 06:01 AM
  #120
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Why are we putting 3 centres on one line???
Works for Boston.

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06-15-2013, 10:57 AM
  #121
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Why are we putting 3 centres on one line???
I don't see it as a big deal. With everyone getting thrown out of the faceoff circle, you're seeing it more often especially late in the game.

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Or a compliance buyout of Jokinen, which frees up $4.5 million cap space. That still leaves us with Little/Scheifele/Burmistrov/Slater as our 4 centers, with Wright and O'Dell also available. Our logjam is at centre, and buying out Jokinen makes the most sense. I could see Scheifele and Burmistrov as Kane's linemates. So we'd need to fill out a 3rd line, plus a goalie.
That would be the cheaper and more likely option. Is our coach going to put Burmi on the 2nd line?

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Defense isn't as abundant as you make it seem. Trouba/Kulda/Redmond/Postma are not guaranteed to make the big club. Hainsey is probably going to negotiate a big payday... somewhere else. We need Clitsome.
I think you're right, Clitsome is a pretty good d-man. Problem is if we keep him, and sign our RFA's, we have 8 d-men plus Trouba.

Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and go younger. I think odds of one of Kulda/Redmond/Postma/Trouba working on the 2nd D pairing is pretty good. If we keep Clitsome and don't trade anyone, there's a whole one spot for those 4.

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06-16-2013, 05:39 PM
  #122
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Is our coach going to put Burmi on the 2nd line?
Chevy should read the riot act to Claude on that. Either Burmi ends up on the 2nd line, or else Claude ends up on the unemployment line.

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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
I think you're right, Clitsome is a pretty good d-man. Problem is if we keep him, and sign our RFA's, we have 8 d-men plus Trouba.

Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and go younger. I think odds of one of Kulda/Redmond/Postma/Trouba working on the 2nd D pairing is pretty good. If we keep Clitsome and don't trade anyone, there's a whole one spot for those 4.
**** happens. Remember all the defensive injuries last season? We had to call up Meech fercryinoutloud. And the Icecaps were totally screwed.

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06-16-2013, 06:14 PM
  #123
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Chevy should read the riot act to Claude on that. Either Burmi ends up on the 2nd line, or else Claude ends up on the unemployment line.


**** happens. Remember all the defensive injuries last season? We had to call up Meech fercryinoutloud. And the Icecaps were totally screwed.
Meech...

*hides in corner and shudders*

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06-16-2013, 06:35 PM
  #124
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Chevy should read the riot act to Claude on that. Either Burmi ends up on the 2nd line, or else Claude ends up on the unemployment line.


**** happens. Remember all the defensive injuries last season? We had to call up Meech fercryinoutloud. And the Icecaps were totally screwed.
Both very good points.

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06-16-2013, 06:42 PM
  #125
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I have to say I'm fine with Burmi never getting top6 mins if there are 6 forwards doing better than him.
My problem last season was I didn't believe that to be the case.

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