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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk 11.0

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Old
06-17-2013, 01:40 PM
  #801
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Originally Posted by yianik View Post
Would love either of those guys. In terms of BPA the way I look at it is BPA is made up of what you think is important in a player and so if you are only concerned about speed and size you end up with a fast high skill player who might be 5 foot 7. If you add in size and grit as a component then maybe you take the fastest and most skilled guy who is at least 6 foot 1 and physical. Anyway, I am with you, we have enough picks and the draft is deep enough it seems that we should be able to add size and physical play with our first number picks. Will say though anybody we take has to be a good skater, at least for his size. Cant skate, cant play except for the odd player here and there.
Agreed. And of course, if a guy is a pretty weak in an area where there appears to be little chance for improvement (skating, physicality) i'd pass as well. There are things that can be taught, but the desire level needs to be there. As a scout, you need to be as much of a psychologist as anything else. Like with Mantha for instance. He could easily be the second coming of Guillaume Latendresse. Or the biggest steal in the first round. Figuring that out is where the elite scouts/GM's separate themselves from the pack.

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06-17-2013, 01:41 PM
  #802
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The boldest prediction I have, is Justin Bailey with #25. Maybe it sounds nuts, and I know he didn't impress WS but, I think he's got the ability to be an excellent, top-line player. Bold and some would say misguided but I think it could be Timmins' off the board pick. Either way, I think we draft him.

I am so torn on Bailey it's not funny. He is the type that drive scouts nuts. I saw him live about 50 times this year and I still don't know where I'd take him. There's no way he showed everything you typically want to see from a first rounder. So in theory, that's a pass until at least the 2nd round. But he also possesses an intriguing mix of characteristics that could vault him into the top-10 out of this draft if he puts it together. He's such a gambler's pick. And with three in the top 36, we can afford one gamble. Especially since it fits our need of size and skill on the wings.

Why I'm leaning towards using the 36 on him is that for most of his downfalls, I can find a good reason to mitigate it:
- inconsistency (rookie, never played anywhere near CHL calibre or grind of schedule)
- mediocre production (played 3rd/4th line minutes on a veteran-laden team and didn't get much PP time)
- no mean streak (again, a rookie from a respectful upbringing just learning to compete at the highest level).

While I'm not completely sold on him, I definitely see a beast lurking there who could easily bust out and completely dominate with size and skill and leave teams and fans wondering how he lasted to the mid-second. That potential far out-strips that of a lot of guys left in that range.

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06-17-2013, 01:54 PM
  #803
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I could see Timmins loving Bailey if he interviewed well. Super talented kid who is simply rawer than the rest of the draft class.

25 is too early for him though. 34 or 36 could be a great fit. Rychel at 25, a D like Hagg at 34, and then a high upside boom/bust guy at 36, and Bailey fits that profile.

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06-17-2013, 01:54 PM
  #804
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If EVERYTHING went right in Rychel's development, he'd probably compare to a slower Chris Kunitz.
If everything goes right with his development, wouldn't that imply that his skating would dramatically improve? I think Rychel is being undervalued here. If he was a faster skater and showed consistency, he'd be an easy top-10 pick.

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06-17-2013, 01:54 PM
  #805
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What do you mean by upside? I think you underrate Rychel due to his name, and the fact he'll fight.

Make no mistake bout it, Rychel has every bit the upside of all those players you mentioned. He has consistent 30+ goals a year upside, all while being rugged. How many rugged consistent 30 goal scorers are there in the NHL?
My assessment is based solely on my watching him on film. Rychel has modest skating ability. He has heavy feet and almost no quickness. At the NHL level he will not be able to create the space nor time he needs to get away his shot. His lack of quickness will prevent him from being effective on the forecheck and unable to carry out his defensive responsibilities. He will spend his first 2 to 3 years in the AHL after which many on this board will be asking how we could a draft player of his obvious limitations in one of the deepest drafts in twenty years. Rychel's top end will be as a 3rd line player who at best, may, just may, reach Ryder's level of play and production. Perhaps that may be good enough in other draft years. But in this draft, that is certainly not swinging for the fences. It will be interesting to see if Rychel is even invited to Team Canada's summer assessment camp. With his skating ability, I doubt he'll get an invite, and even if he does, there's no way he makes the team. If this occurs, it will be the biggest indictment as to the folly of choosing him so high in this excellent draft. Most of the other players I mentioned will make and be starring for their respective national teams. Rychel is a future journeyman who's skill set can be easily acquired through free agency.

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06-17-2013, 01:59 PM
  #806
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So the bold prediction would be to then....trade down. Not a lot of options but it can be done. Go back a little and pick up 1 more 2nd rounder if possible.
If the habs were to trade down, my bold prediction is that the extra draft pick they acquire will be a 2014 draft pick...

...ah, that isn't that bold of a prediction either, but I could see the habs, being happy with the number of picks they have in this draft, and with other teams maybe undervalue their '14 picks, the habs cmay be able to pick up a good 2014 2nd rounder by only dropping a few spots in the '13 first round.

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06-17-2013, 01:59 PM
  #807
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
My assessment is based solely on my watching him on film. Rychel has modest skating ability. He has heavy feet and almost no quickness. At the NHL level he will not be able to create the space nor time he needs to get away his shot. His lack of quickness will prevent him from being effective on the forecheck and unable to carry out his defensive responsibilities. He will spend his first 2 to 3 years in the AHL after which many on this board will be asking how we could draft player of his obvious limitations in one of the deepest drafts in twenty years. Rychel's top end will be as a 3rd line player, who may, just may reach Ryder's level of play and production. Perhaps that may be good enough in other draft years. But in this draft, that is certainly not swinging for the fences. It will interesting to see if Rychel is even invited to Team Canada's summer assessment camp. With his skating ability, I doubt he'll get an invite, and even if he does, there's no way he makes the team. If this occurs that will be the biggest indictment as to the folly of choosing him so high in this excellent draft. Most of the other players I mentioned will make and be starring for their respective national teams. Rychel is a future journeyman who's skill set can be easily acquired through free agency.
Jeez, wow!

He's a better skater than you give him credit for. He's a legit top 6 forward IMO, the question is whether he's a complementary 20 goal guy or a 30+ goal guy.

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06-17-2013, 02:09 PM
  #808
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If the habs were to trade down, my bold prediction is that the extra draft pick they acquire will be a 2014 draft pick...

...ah, that isn't that bold of a prediction either, but I could see the habs, being happy with the number of picks they have in this draft, and with other teams maybe undervalue their '14 picks, the habs cmay be able to pick up a good 2014 2nd rounder by only dropping a few spots in the '13 first round.
If you are going to be just as happy picking at a few spots later than your actual spot, then any asset you pick up for it is a win. Would of course prefer for this year.

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06-17-2013, 02:24 PM
  #809
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Originally Posted by Tim Wallach View Post

While I'm not completely sold on him, I definitely see a beast lurking there who could easily bust out and completely dominate with size and skill and leave teams and fans wondering how he lasted to the mid-second. That potential far out-strips that of a lot of guys left in that range.
That's why directors of scouting in the NHL make the big bucks and that's what defines the good ones: the ability see the potential of a player and project how good he can be when fully developed.

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06-17-2013, 02:29 PM
  #810
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
My assessment is based solely on my watching him on film. Rychel has modest skating ability. He has heavy feet and almost no quickness. At the NHL level he will not be able to create the space nor time he needs to get away his shot. His lack of quickness will prevent him from being effective on the forecheck and unable to carry out his defensive responsibilities. He will spend his first 2 to 3 years in the AHL after which many on this board will be asking how we could a draft player of his obvious limitations in one of the deepest drafts in twenty years. Rychel's top end will be as a 3rd line player who at best, may, just may, reach Ryder's level of play and production. Perhaps that may be good enough in other draft years. But in this draft, that is certainly not swinging for the fences. It will be interesting to see if Rychel is even invited to Team Canada's summer assessment camp. With his skating ability, I doubt he'll get an invite, and even if he does, there's no way he makes the team. If this occurs, it will be the biggest indictment as to the folly of choosing him so high in this excellent draft. Most of the other players I mentioned will make and be starring for their respective national teams. Rychel is a future journeyman who's skill set can be easily acquired through free agency.
Do you know when that invite list will be public? I remember it coming out before the draft a couple of years ago, McNeill's omission being a tip that some scouts believed he was a flawed player...

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06-17-2013, 02:47 PM
  #811
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I would be totally fine with us picking Bailey at 25. He is the definition of boom or bust pick but from what I saw from him I like his size, his ability to crash the net and his passing. I think he is being under-rated IMO. I also really like Mccoshen, he however is a really safe pick. He will be in the NHL for sure and will most likely develop into a very solid #3 guy and possibly a #2 guy.

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06-17-2013, 02:48 PM
  #812
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Originally Posted by hogtownhabsfan View Post
Jeez, wow!

He's a better skater than you give him credit for. He's a legit top 6 forward IMO, the question is whether he's a complementary 20 goal guy or a 30+ goal guy.
I hope I'm not being too overly assertive and offending some sensitive souls on this Board. But I'm still feeling the sting of the castigation I had to endure for expressing my opinion that Morin just might not be a viable expectation at 25. As for Rychel, I suggest that you simply watch the tapes. The man's skating doesn't even standout in Junior where most of the players he's playing against will be selling insurance in two years. In the NHL, good skating is the minimum level necessary to succeed. He will never reach that level. Rychel has journeyman written all over him. Is this what you really want to draft in the first round?


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06-17-2013, 03:05 PM
  #813
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Do you know when that invite list will be public? I remember it coming out before the draft a couple of years ago, McNeill's omission being a tip that some scouts believed he was a flawed player...
Hockey Canada has published the lists of the goaltenders who have invited to the U20 summer evaluation camp for just goaltenders:


Under-20 Goaltenders

Antoine Bibeau L/G 6'2" 210 05/01/94 Victoriaville, Que. Charlottetown (QMJHL) 2013 Dft

François Brassard L/G 6'1" 160 01/31/94 Gatineau, Que. Quebec (QMJHL) OTT '12 (6, 166)

Eric Comrie L/G 6’1” 168 07/06/95 Edmonton, Alta. Tri-City (WHL) 2013 Dft

Philippe Desrosiers L/G 6'1" 187 08/16/95 St-Hyacinthe, Que. Rimouski (QMJHL) 2013 Dft

Chris Driedger L/G 6'3" 193 05/18/94 Winnipeg, Man. Calgary (WHL) OTT '12 (3, 76)

Zachary Fucale L/G 6'1" 176 05/28/95 Rosemère, Que. Halifax (QMJHL) 2013 Dft

Tristan Jarry L/G 6'2" 181 04/29/95 Delta, B.C. Edmonton (WHL) 2013 Dft

Austin Lotz L/G 6'0" 185 05/27/95 St. Adolphe, Man. Everett (WHL) 2013 Dft

Spencer Martin L/G 6'2" 186 06/08/95 Oakville, Ont. Mississauga (OHL) 2013 Dft

Matt Murray L/G 6'5" 163 05/25/94 Thunder Bay, Ont. Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) PIT '12 (3, 83)

Jake Paterson L/G 6'1" 183 05/03/94 Mississauga, Ont. Saginaw (OHL) DET '12 (3, 80)

Mackenzie Skapski L/G 6'3" 185 06/15/94 Abbotsford, B.C. Kootenay (WHL) 2013 Dft

Brandon Whitney L/G 6'5" 201 05/11/94 Centerville, N.S. Victoriaville (QMJHL) CHI '12 (7, 191)
But I have yet to see the list of forwards and defencemen who were invited. They have posted the dates of the exhibition games:



2013-14 National Junior Team


Summer Development Camp



Wednesday, August 7, 2013

13:00 Game CAN - FIN
Olympic Training Center - Olympic Rink
Lake Placid, N.Y.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

16:15 Game CAN - SWE
Olympic Training Center - Olympic Rink
Lake Placid, N.Y.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

13:00 Game CAN - USA
Olympic Training Center - Olympic Rink
Lake Placid, N.Y.

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06-17-2013, 03:13 PM
  #814
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
My assessment is based solely on my watching him on film. Rychel has modest skating ability. He has heavy feet and almost no quickness. At the NHL level he will not be able to create the space nor time he needs to get away his shot. His lack of quickness will prevent him from being effective on the forecheck and unable to carry out his defensive responsibilities. He will spend his first 2 to 3 years in the AHL after which many on this board will be asking how we could a draft player of his obvious limitations in one of the deepest drafts in twenty years. Rychel's top end will be as a 3rd line player who at best, may, just may, reach Ryder's level of play and production. Perhaps that may be good enough in other draft years. But in this draft, that is certainly not swinging for the fences. It will be interesting to see if Rychel is even invited to Team Canada's summer assessment camp. With his skating ability, I doubt he'll get an invite, and even if he does, there's no way he makes the team. If this occurs, it will be the biggest indictment as to the folly of choosing him so high in this excellent draft. Most of the other players I mentioned will make and be starring for their respective national teams. Rychel is a future journeyman who's skill set can be easily acquired through free agency.
Rychel's skating is not THAT bad. It's not that great either but some players have been known to improve their skating after being drafted.
Ryan O'Reilly dropped to the 2nd round because of skating concerns. He's a fine skater now and, in insight, would be drafted top 10 in that draft.

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06-17-2013, 03:17 PM
  #815
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Expect the unexpected
That was 2 GM's ago.


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If everything goes right with his development, wouldn't that imply that his skating would dramatically improve? I think Rychel is being undervalued here. If he was a faster skater and showed consistency, he'd be an easy top-10 pick.
I guess you found a flaw with how I worded that.

But I still like the comparison. If Rychel makes the NHL, he's likely a slower Chris Kunitz and could provide comparable production when you remove the Crosby factor.

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06-17-2013, 03:18 PM
  #816
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I hope I'm not being too overly assertive and offending some sensitive souls on this Board. But I'm still feeling the sting of the castigation I had to endure for expressing my opinion that Morin just might not be a viable expectation at 25. As for Rychel, I suggest that you simply watch the tapes. The man's skating doesn't even standout in Junior where most of the players he's playing against will be selling insurance in two years. In the NHL, good skating is the minimum level necessary to exceed. He will never reach that level. Rychel has journeyman written all over him. Is this what you really want to draft in the first round?
Don't worry, the laughing smiley was supposed to tell you I'm not the sensitive type.

I have watched him, during the lockout all I watched was OHL hockey. His skating isn't an issue, it isn't "standout", but if he was a "standout" skater he'd be ranked ahead of guys like Shinkaruk, Horvat, Domi, Lazar, Zykov, and Horvat and Zykov aren't standout skaters either. He'd probably be neck and neck with Wennberg to be the 7th best forward in this strong draft.

You're overstating his skating issues as well as the importance of skating for the type of player he is, which is a rugged and skilled scoring winger.

If we pass on Rychel, assuming noone better falls, we'll regret it. A rugged and tough top 6 winger who scores goals and stands up for teammates is something this team should crave. He has future captain potential as well.

The question isn't should we take Rychel if he's there, but rather is he there at all? And I worry about that, because for me, after Rychel and Erne, there's a pretty steep dropoff at the forward spot where everyone is either a gamble or a low ceiling player.

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06-17-2013, 03:19 PM
  #817
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If you are going to be just as happy picking at a few spots later than your actual spot, then any asset you pick up for it is a win. Would of course prefer for this year.
agreed, but my feeling is 2013 picks will be overvalued, whereas 2014 picks might be undervalued.

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06-17-2013, 03:31 PM
  #818
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I hope I'm not being too overly assertive and offending some sensitive souls on this Board. But I'm still feeling the sting of the castigation I had to endure for expressing my opinion that Morin just might not be a viable expectation at 25. As for Rychel, I suggest that you simply watch the tapes. The man's skating doesn't even standout in Junior where most of the players he's playing against will be selling insurance in two years. In the NHL, good skating is the minimum level necessary to succeed. He will never reach that level. Rychel has journeyman written all over him. Is this what you really want to draft in the first round?
Interesting. From the posts I remember reading, it was more a case of you castigating everyone who thought there was a chance of Morin being available, then proceeding to lecture the board on how we should all focus on "probabilities rather than possibilities".

In fact, I think you must have copied and pasted the same post multiple times daily. I'm sure that what you perceive as being "castigation for expressing your opinion" is in fact the board's general annoyance at having to read your condescending posts ad nauseum.

How unjust...I feel for you. Although I am much more fearful that we are on the verge of you loosing a barrage of "Rychel is too slow" posts on the board with a similar vanity and righteousness that has come to characterize your posts so far.

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06-17-2013, 03:33 PM
  #819
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It is bold prediction time. Feel free to post your bold predictions...
Having studied all the prospect reports and everyone's comments in this thread, I can confidently predict that Timmins will make his announcements wearing a suit, tie and dress shirt. Probably a light grey. MB will be wearing a power suit - something in a dark color.


I'll also venture out on a limb and declare that all the Habs picks will slip on the Canadiens sweater - all except the last two . They'll not be at the draft because they could not afford the tanker fare from Indonesia & Johannesburg. The Habs will make news by drafting the first Indonesian & South African trained players.

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06-17-2013, 03:34 PM
  #820
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Originally Posted by lamp9post View Post
Interesting. From the posts I remember reading, it was more a case of you castigating everyone who thought there was a chance of Morin being available, then proceeding to lecture the board on how we should all focus on "probabilities rather than possibilities".

In fact, I think you must have copied and pasted the same post multiple times daily. I'm sure that what you perceive as being "castigation for expressing your opinion" is in fact the board's general annoyance at having to read your condescending posts ad nauseum.

How unjust...I feel for you. Although I am much more fearful that we are on the verge of you loosing a barrage of "Rychel is too slow" posts on the board with a similar vanity and righteousness that has come to characterize your posts so far.
Thank you.

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06-17-2013, 03:35 PM
  #821
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Expect the unexpected
So what are you saying, Bobsled? The unexpected is expected?

By the way shouldn't you be advising Dallas on how to unload their top prospects for second-rate, has-been NHLers?

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06-17-2013, 03:41 PM
  #822
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Rychel's skating is not THAT bad. It's not that great either but some players have been known to improve their skating after being drafted.
Ryan O'Reilly dropped to the 2nd round because of skating concerns. He's a fine skater now and, in insight, would be drafted top 10 in that draft.
He has a very short stride and he's supposed to be 6'2.He possesses poor skating fundamentals and I'm not sure if 2-3 years of summer skating school can fix that issue.It didn't work for Latendresse,did it?

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06-17-2013, 03:53 PM
  #823
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He has a very short stride and he's supposed to be 6'2.He possesses poor skating fundamentals and I'm not sure if 2-3 years of summer skating school can fix that issue.It didn't work for Latendresse,did it?
I don't think skating is ultimately what did Latendresse in. He improved his skating quite a bit. And if he could have showed more genuine passion and consistency in his game, alongside maybe questions of general conditioning and some bad luck with injuries, he would have been just fine as an NHLer, at the peak level of skating proficiency he managed to achieve (below average as it was). If he could have kept the level of the rest of his game and health where it was in his first couple years with us, he would have been a decent NHLer.

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06-17-2013, 03:56 PM
  #824
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I don't think skating is ultimately what did Latendresse in. He improved his skating quite a bit. And if he could have showed more genuine passion and consistency in his game, alongside maybe questions of general conditioning and some bad luck with injuries, he would have been just fine as an NHLer, at the peak level of skating proficiency he managed to achieve (below average as it was). If he could have kept the level of the rest of his game and health where it was in his first couple years with us, he would have been a decent NHLer.
Also Rychel is a better skater than Lats, and alot more rugged/tenacious.

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06-17-2013, 03:56 PM
  #825
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He has a very short stride and he's supposed to be 6'2.He possesses poor skating fundamentals and I'm not sure if 2-3 years of summer skating school can fix that issue.It didn't work for Latendresse,did it?
A Latendresse that'd be willing to go to the net, use his size and fight occasionally would be a pretty good asset to have. Not that I'm all for drafting Rychel but I feel like the skating issue might be a tad overblown.


Oh and while we're at it I'll quote this again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lamp9post View Post
Interesting. From the posts I remember reading, it was more a case of you castigating everyone who thought there was a chance of Morin being available, then proceeding to lecture the board on how we should all focus on "probabilities rather than possibilities".

In fact, I think you must have copied and pasted the same post multiple times daily. I'm sure that what you perceive as being "castigation for expressing your opinion" is in fact the board's general annoyance at having to read your condescending posts ad nauseum.

How unjust...I feel for you. Although I am much more fearful that we are on the verge of you loosing a barrage of "Rychel is too slow" posts on the board with a similar vanity and righteousness that has come to characterize your posts so far.

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