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The Rumors and Speculation Thread #6

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Old
06-19-2013, 06:53 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
They're not, JVR is the better player but I still don't mind that trade. We needed defense and I don't see how that trade has really anything to do with this.

If you really think that they're equal or close to, I don't know what to tell you. I don't think you'll find many people that agree with you on that.
I think JVR > Schenn, and I'm warming up to the trade. I thought Schenn should have been handled with 1st+.

I also think that Ryan > Coburn. However, I don't believe that it's that far off; just like JVR and Schenn. It's certainly not enough to add Read/1st/Couturier/whatever.



That doesn't mean that is what Anaheim's asking price would be. I was just pointing out that Coburn for Ryan is fairly close to fair value; at least closer than most believe.

That said, Ryan and Coburn are not necessarily in similar situations as JVR and Schenn. At the time of JVR-Schenn, we were looking to move offense for defense and Toronto was looking to move defense for offense. Now we are looking to move defense for offense (theoretically based on this move), so if Anaheim is looking to move offense for defense, inquiring about Coburn is a good plan for them.

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06-19-2013, 06:55 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Yes. I don't have the time to look for the post or do the research again, but in a prior thread about Ryan (or may have been JvR) I did some research. In his first four years, only like four other players scored 30 goals each of those years. Those four players were some of the best in the league. Ryan was in his first four seasons. I'm not saying that Ryan is in the same category as those players, but that is certainly something special.
You also have to factor in that Ryan's still 26 with some possible room to grow. He's never really consistently played alongside Getzlaf and Perry neither nor getting 1st PP time.

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06-19-2013, 07:01 PM
  #678
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Yes. I don't have the time to look for the post or do the research again, but in a prior thread about Ryan (or may have been JvR) I did some research. In his first four years, only like four other players scored 30 goals each of those years. Those four players were some of the best in the league. Ryan was in his first four seasons. I'm not saying that Ryan is in the same category as those players, but that is certainly something special.
My point is that a lot of players put up 30 goals. Hartnell, Moulson, Vrbata, Ryder, Cole, Clarkson, Grabner, Morrow, Kulemin, Burrows, Penner, J. Jokinen, Samuelsson. Those are all names of players who have had 30 goal seasons since 2009-10.

What I am saying is that it doesn't take a special player to put up 30 goals. Sure, it's nice to have a player who is a safe bet to hit 30, but is it really something worth paying a heavy price to get?

How much would you pay for three time consecutive 30-goal scorer Matt Moulson? Yeah, yeah, I know. Tavares. But Ryan has support in Anaheim, too. I don't consider his accomplishments to be that impressive. I don't care if he did it in his first four seasons or his last four seasons; it's not like he's still developing as a player.

EDIT: Since Matt Moulson has entered the league as a regular player (2009-10), he has had 112 goals. Bobby Ryan has had 111. I understand Bobby Ryan is a better goal scorer on his own, but let's not act like he is one of the NHL's most prolific goal scorers.


Last edited by hockeyfreak7: 06-19-2013 at 07:13 PM.
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06-19-2013, 07:28 PM
  #679
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Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
No it's not though, Ryan is going to cost you a good price and for a good reason. He's a proven 30+ goal scorer entering his prime in a league where scoring is down, they don't grow on trees.

The JVR/Schenn trade was two young former highly drafted players who were struggling and needed a change of scenery on teams that had a surplus at their positions.

Anaheim could get far better of a return than Coburn + Read and whatever else spare parts you want to include in there. The 11th pick would be the only really enticing thing the Flyers have if Schenn and Couturier are off the table. Anaheim doesn't really have to trade Ryan right now too so it's not like there's a real leverage on our side.

That's why I rather just pass on Ryan but Homer's an idiot will probably go down that road and come out on the bad end of it just so he could finally have a hometown kid in a Flyers uniform.
Eh, no*. Aging curves show that Bobby Ryan's expected prime began several years ago. He could even be declining already.

*doubtful. Is that better?


Last edited by Damaged Goods: 06-19-2013 at 08:28 PM.
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06-19-2013, 07:31 PM
  #680
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It does not make sense for us to trade Coburn in a deal for Ryan unless we have a good replacement for him. I think it would be ok if Sbisa was included because I think it is better for the future but a little worse of for now. For a trade for Ryan the only trade I can think of that I would be interested in would be around Read + 2014 First +. I'm not saying Anaheim should or would take that, but that is probably all we can afford unless there are even more changes on the horizon.

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06-19-2013, 07:37 PM
  #681
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Eh, no. Aging curves show that the Bobby Ryan's expected prime began several years ago. He could even be declining already.
Ok, good to know we'll base what Ryan will do off of other players in the past. In that case that list of players that poster posted above is useless considering most of them are 30+.

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06-19-2013, 08:27 PM
  #682
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Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
Ok, good to know we'll base what Ryan will do off of other players in the past. In that case that list of players that poster posted above is useless considering most of them are 30+.
I worded my post very specifically, not saying anything that can't be defended.

But what method for establishing expectations do you have that is better than looking at how players age historically?

What's your basis for asserting that Ryan is just entering his prime? It would be improbable, at his age.

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06-19-2013, 08:29 PM
  #683
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RT @rvp29: @DennisTFP what's actual likelihood of JB for Read&Coots? Wild dream or real possibility?/no way for both
9:23pm - 19 Jun 13



People are straight out of their minds.

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06-19-2013, 08:32 PM
  #684
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I know I am going to get flamed pretty hard for this but this would be my plan for the offseason if I was Holmgren.

Buyout Briere and Bryz(we cannot chance this guy getting hurt this year)

Resign Gus for 1.25/per for 2 years, resign Hall 700,000/per for 1 or 2 years.

I would trade Meszaros at the draft for anything I could get.

So we would have
Schenn-Giroux-Simmonds
Harntell-Couts-Voracek
XXX-Laughton-Read
Talbot-Hall-Rinaldo
Rosehill

Timonen-Schenn
Streit-Coburn
Grossmann-Gus
Gervais

Mason
XXX

This is where everyone is going to go nuts. The minute free agency starts I would call Pietrangelo's agent presenting a 1 year offer-sheet worth 12,860,000 which is the maximum a contract can be this year. I would also tell him that there will be an 8 year 64 million dollar contract waiting for him to be signed if St. Louis doesn't match. So basically it could be a 9 year 76 million dollar deal, I don't think there is a better offer that he could get. I would bet he would sign it because there is basically no way he could realistically be offered as much money. I don't know what the chances of St. Louis matching is but I bet they will be looking to sign him to a deal closer to what OEL got, so around 6.5 per for 5 or 6 years. They also have a few other RFA's that need to be signed like Shattenkirk and Stewart. I would think that 12,000,000 is what they would want to pay for both Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk for a single year. This would be my last ditch effort at getting a #1 defenseman. So if for some reason this worked we could trade Grossmann to make room, sign a goalie for 2 million or less, and have McGinn play third line LW. We would end up with this.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Tye McGinn ($0.775m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Adam Hall ($0.700m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.675m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)
Erik Gustafsson ($1.250m) / Bruno Gervais ($0.825m)
Alex Pietrangelo ($12.860m) / Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
Ray Emery ($2.000m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,876,022; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster):- $3,776,022

Its a pipe dream but it would be my last effort at trading for or a signing a franchise defenseman. If there is any GM in the league crazy enough to try it, it would be Homer. That said, maybe he isn't even crazy enough to try it. If it didn't work we would have about 12 million in cap space to sign free agents and use for trades to fill the 3rd line LW and a goalie.

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06-19-2013, 08:44 PM
  #685
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Originally Posted by FLYERSFAN18 View Post
I know I am going to get flamed pretty hard for this but this would be my plan for the offseason if I was Holmgren.

Buyout Briere and Bryz(we cannot chance this guy getting hurt this year)

Resign Gus for 1.25/per for 2 years, resign Hall 700,000/per for 1 or 2 years.

I would trade Meszaros at the draft for anything I could get.

So we would have
Schenn-Giroux-Simmonds
Harntell-Couts-Voracek
XXX-Laughton-Read
Talbot-Hall-Rinaldo
Rosehill

Timonen-Schenn
Streit-Coburn
Grossmann-Gus
Gervais

Mason
XXX

This is where everyone is going to go nuts. The minute free agency starts I would call Pietrangelo's agent presenting a 1 year offer-sheet worth 12,860,000 which is the maximum a contract can be this year. I would also tell him that there will be an 8 year 64 million dollar contract waiting for him to be signed if St. Louis doesn't match. So basically it could be a 9 year 76 million dollar deal, I don't think there is a better offer that he could get. I would bet he would sign it because there is basically no way he could realistically be offered as much money. I don't know what the chances of St. Louis matching is but I bet they will be looking to sign him to a deal closer to what OEL got, so around 6.5 per for 5 or 6 years. They also have a few other RFA's that need to be signed like Shattenkirk and Stewart. I would think that 12,000,000 is what they would want to pay for both Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk for a single year. This would be my last ditch effort at getting a #1 defenseman. So if for some reason this worked we could trade Grossmann to make room, sign a goalie for 2 million or less, and have McGinn play third line LW. We would end up with this.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Tye McGinn ($0.775m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Adam Hall ($0.700m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)
Jay Rosehill ($0.675m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)
Erik Gustafsson ($1.250m) / Bruno Gervais ($0.825m)
Alex Pietrangelo ($12.860m) / Chris Pronger ($4.941m)
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($1.500m)
Ray Emery ($2.000m)
OTHER
Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)
Buyout: Danny Briere ($0.000m)
Buyout: Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,876,022; BONUSES: $2,800,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster):- $3,776,022

Its a pipe dream but it would be my last effort at trading for or a signing a franchise defenseman. If there is any GM in the league crazy enough to try it, it would be Homer. That said, maybe he isn't even crazy enough to try it. If it didn't work we would have about 12 million in cap space to sign free agents and use for trades to fill the 3rd line LW and a goalie.
A new deal can't be done until 12 months after the OS situation is cleared up. Do you think he would sign a 12mill deal for one year and throw away a probable $50mil deal from STL?

I highly doubt any hockey player would risk losing that much money.

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06-19-2013, 08:47 PM
  #686
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Originally Posted by StevensCakeBakerBacker View Post
A new deal can't be done until 12 months after the OS situation is cleared up. Do you think he would sign a 12mill deal for one year and throw away a probable $50mil deal from STL?

I highly doubt any hockey player would risk losing that much money.
Is this true. I know you cannot trade a player for 12 months after they sign an offer sheet, but I am unaware of the rule that says you can't sign them to an extension. Do you have a link? I'm not saying that you are wrong just wondering where you heard it

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06-19-2013, 09:00 PM
  #687
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I worded my post very specifically, not saying anything that can't be defended.

But what method for establishing expectations do you have that is better than looking at how players age historically?

What's your basis for asserting that Ryan is just entering his prime? It would be improbable, at his age.
Well I don't own a crystal ball so I can't say for certain but it's not like Ryan's had any major injuries and he's still relatively young. In fact I think he could do better if he moved out of Anaheim. He's usually playing on the second line without Getzlaf & Perry and when he does play with them it's out of position on the other side but again I don't know that for certain just my feeling.

Obviously I don't have another method but to me using past players is silly because every player is different.

For the record I don't want to trade for Ryan because of the cost and I feel like there's bigger needs right now but I just feel like some of you guys are really undervaluing him and overvaluing our guys.


Last edited by LegionOfDoom91: 06-19-2013 at 09:09 PM.
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06-19-2013, 09:01 PM
  #688
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Is this true. I know you cannot trade a player for 12 months after they sign an offer sheet, but I am unaware of the rule that says you can't sign them to an extension. Do you have a link? I'm not saying that you are wrong just wondering where you heard it
I don't have a link, but I remember it from the Weber OS last year. Because of that 12 month rule, a strategy was to offer a 1 year max deal so Weber would be guaranteed to hit UFA.

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06-19-2013, 09:04 PM
  #689
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Originally Posted by StevensCakeBakerBacker View Post
I don't have a link, but I remember it from the Weber OS last year. Because of that 12 month rule, a strategy was to offer a 1 year max deal so Weber would be guaranteed to hit UFA.
There's no rule against extending offersheeted players on a one-year deal.

The reason Weber would be guaranteed to hit UFA was because it was clear that he didn't want to re-sign in Nashville.

So, we signed him when? Mid-July? Let's say July 15th~.

Then he plays a year in Nashville.

At the point of the July 1st window, he doesn't become a free-agent.

On July 15th, he becomes a free-agent unless signed to an extension beforehand.

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06-19-2013, 09:04 PM
  #690
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Eh, no*. Aging curves show that Bobby Ryan's expected prime began several years ago. He could even be declining already.

*doubtful. Is that better?
He's declining at 26?

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06-19-2013, 09:05 PM
  #691
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Originally Posted by FLYERSFAN18 View Post
Is this true. I know you cannot trade a player for 12 months after they sign an offer sheet, but I am unaware of the rule that says you can't sign them to an extension. Do you have a link? I'm not saying that you are wrong just wondering where you heard it
Definitely a crazy idea. It would make sense financially for P if that extension could be signed immediately.

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06-19-2013, 09:09 PM
  #692
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Well I don't own a crystal ball so I can't say for certain but it's not like Ryan's had any major injuries and he's still relatively young. In fact I think he could do better if he moved out of Anaheim. He's usually playing on the second line without Getzlaf & Perry and when he does play with them it's out of position on the other side but again I don't know that for certain just my feeling.

Obviously I don't have another method but to me using past players is silly because every player is different.
Every coin flip or dice roll is different too, but that doesn't mean it behooves you to ignore the long-term probabilities at play. If you are valuing Bobby Ryan as a player "just entering his prime," you're setting yourself against the odds.


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06-19-2013, 09:13 PM
  #693
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There's no rule against extending offersheeted players on a one-year deal.

The reason Weber would be guaranteed to hit UFA was because it was clear that he didn't want to re-sign in Nashville.

So, we signed him when? Mid-July? Let's say July 15th~.

Then he plays a year in Nashville.

At the point of the July 1st window, he doesn't become a free-agent.

On July 15th, he becomes a free-agent unless signed to an extension beforehand.
Not saying I'm right, but if a player that signed an OS was able to sign an immediate extension, wouldn't that make the whole 1 year deal poison pill a terrible strategy?

Why even offer the 1 year deal when the player could just play out their RFA year and become unrestricted?

I think I'm going cross eyed...

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06-19-2013, 09:13 PM
  #694
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Definitely a crazy idea. It would make sense financially for P if that extension could be signed immediately.
That was my thinking. A 12 million dollar offer sheet plues an 8 year 64 million dollar deal would essentially become a 9 years 76 million deal, which is about the best any player could hope for let alone a RFA

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06-19-2013, 09:14 PM
  #695
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With apologies to Carchidi from an earlier post of mine:

Dustin Leed ‏@D_LEED 1m
And the latest: heavy interest in NYR's Brad Richards if he's bought out. #Flyers



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06-19-2013, 09:16 PM
  #696
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Not saying I'm right, but if a player that signed an OS was able to sign an immediate extension, wouldn't that make the whole 1 year deal poison pill a terrible strategy?

Why even offer the 1 year deal when the player could just play out their RFA year and become unrestricted?

I think I'm going cross eyed...
In all honesty it probably would have been good just not as good for him. If Nashville matched he would have made the 13 million this year and then been able to sign with whoever he wanted this season. If they didnt he could have immediately signed an extension with the flyers.

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06-19-2013, 09:17 PM
  #697
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With apologies to Carchidi from an earlier post of mine:

Dustin Leed ‏@D_LEED 1m
And the latest: heavy interest in NYR's Brad Richards if he's bought out. #Flyers


I was just thinking "We REALLY need more centers."

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06-19-2013, 09:17 PM
  #698
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He's declining at 26?
Possibly. His PPG production has dropped 3 years in a row and his GPG has dropped 4 years in a row. Would that be so hard to believe?

From age 21-23, he averaged 36.5 goals per 82 games. If he never matches that span during a future three year peak, would be it be fair to say he peaked as a goal-scorer from age 21-23? Is it hard to believe that Bobby Ryan may very well never average 36.5 goals/82 over a 3 year period again?

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06-19-2013, 09:21 PM
  #699
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There's no rule against extending offersheeted players on a one-year deal.

The reason Weber would be guaranteed to hit UFA was because it was clear that he didn't want to re-sign in Nashville.

So, we signed him when? Mid-July? Let's say July 15th~.

Then he plays a year in Nashville.

At the point of the July 1st window, he doesn't become a free-agent.

On July 15th, he becomes a free-agent unless signed to an extension beforehand.
Right. You can't extend an RFA with more than a year left on his deal. That's the rule that may have others confused (I was).

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06-19-2013, 09:21 PM
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I was just thinking "We REALLY need more centers."
I make less moves with my fantasy teams. Seriously, this isn't fun. Not sure how you expect to win when you continually roll over your roster every summer. Whatever you think works, Mr. Schnyder.

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