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Subban and that bridge contract..(what to expect with his next extension)

View Poll Results: Bridge contract
Bridge contract was a smart deal. It was a good move for both parties 107 54.04%
Should have signed him long term (likely cheaper) when we had the chance. Bit of a blunder by MB. 91 45.96%
Voters: 198. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-20-2013, 12:56 AM
  #426
Miller Time
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jakomyte View Post
People are talking about this situation as if there was no other outcome but PK winning the Norris this year. The risk with signing him long term was also that there still was no consensus on exactly the type of player he would be. I think this year really solidified what his level will likely be in his prime, and that is worth $6.5 million+, but there was still plenty of uncertainty last year.

Its always easy to look back after he had a great year and say that we should have had him for less. Remember, if we signed him at 5x5, it would have been 4 RFA years, 1 UFA year. Going forward, his contract will only be 3 RFA years, so it would make sense for it to increase regardless.

The only way this bridge contract is a blunder for MB is if people assume he has access to a time machine, and that he got agents of all our up and coming players to pinky swear not to use PK skipping his bridge contract as leverage. MB had the balls to hold out until Subban fell in line, and it will benefit the team.
there's a lot of speculation here from all sides...

from my POV:

- it was clear that Subban was not only a very good player at the time (worth well more, pure market value, than the bridge offer we forced him to take), but that his career trajectory & work ethic pointed to a player who would continue improving (i predicted Norris caliber, though not so soon mind you... a hockey expert should have seen his continued rise better than a casual fan)

- it was well established, league-wide, that players with similar impact at his age-contract status, often got rewarded with better than the "bridge" contract, despite the teams perogative to do so

- no one here was in the negotiation room, though some do have access to information from people very close to the team... the 4.5-5.5 range was repeated from just about any source to speak of as to what Subban's camp was looking for on a multi-year deal. I don't think it's at all likely that the reason the team stuck to the "bridge" was because he was asking for a market premium from a player with his numbers/usage (i.e in the 6-6.5M$ ball park.. based on what he HAD done).


the team did "win" in the short-term because they forced a stud young player to play for a very small $$ amount compared to players of his ability/impact (AT THE TIME) & to lesser players his age/contract status (think MDZ).

the long-term impact is at best going to be only somewhat negative (we lose 2-4 years of Subban in the 4.5-5.5M$ range, & his next contract, which will likely have to be a HUGE payday, now coincides with the 2nd contracts for Galch/Gallagher/Tinordi -let's hope the team is still swinging the bridge hammer to all new RFA's- & Eller/Emelin/Diaz will all be on new, higher contracts).

At worst, he's brilliant next year (in norris contention again) a bit jaded, and forces the issue demanding to be paid as one of the top 2-4 dmen in the league (7M$+)...

then it becomes a massive blunder. Timing is a big part of putting together a championship caliber team and riding it through a few seasons... having dman playing at/near Norris level from 26-28 @ a cap hit under 6M$ (which is what we would have had... maybe even under 5M$) is a GREAT way to milk the cap for all it's worth.

Habs weren't going to be a serious contender this year, likely not next year either... better player assessment of Subban (and there were more than enough signs that he was worth the 4.5-5.5M$ it would have taken for a multi-year deal...) would have given the team a much better cap flexibility situation in MB's year 3-4 & maybe 5, exactly when a core of Price, Pacioretty, Subban, Galch, Eller, Gallagher, Tinordi, Beaulieu would be theoretically be ready to take a big step forward.

Being a GM is all about risk management... in this case, I think it was obvious from the start that they put their emphasis in the wrong place, and the end result is that they got burned for it. No foresight/hindsight required, just better player assessment.

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06-20-2013, 05:41 AM
  #427
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
there's a lot of speculation here from all sides...

from my POV:

- it was clear that Subban was not only a very good player at the time (worth well more, pure market value, than the bridge offer we forced him to take), but that his career trajectory & work ethic pointed to a player who would continue improving (i predicted Norris caliber, though not so soon mind you... a hockey expert should have seen his continued rise better than a casual fan)
You are right about PK improving.
But his PPP with Markov was the biggest improvement.
He is going to continue to be a top-10 d-men (most likely top-5) for years to go.
But Markov was the biggest reason PK improved his performance.

Remove Markov from the equation and PK get 15-20 PPP and is not even nominated for Norris.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
- it was well established, league-wide, that players with similar impact at his age-contract status, often got rewarded with better than the "bridge" contract, despite the teams perogative to do so
So did Myers and regressed.

But you need to bring things in perspective.
When Habs were able to deal with PK again, Gomez was still on the books.
Actually, it was expected that Gomez would stay on the books for the whole season.
It was Gomez case that ended up the NHL to change the rules.
But from MB point of view, everything was already in motion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
- no one here was in the negotiation room, though some do have access to information from people very close to the team... the 4.5-5.5 range was repeated from just about any source to speak of as to what Subban's camp was looking for on a multi-year deal. I don't think it's at all likely that the reason the team stuck to the "bridge" was because he was asking for a market premium from a player with his numbers/usage (i.e in the 6-6.5M$ ball park.. based on what he HAD done).
So it was 4.5-5.5 (no proof here): for one year, two years, five years?

If PK was looking for 5M for 5 years, he should be OK with 6M X 8 years.
As far as we know, PK could have asked for 5.5 for one year.

Any link to prove he wanted x for y years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
the team did "win" in the short-term because they forced a stud young player to play for a very small $$ amount compared to players of his ability/impact (AT THE TIME) & to lesser players his age/contract status (think MDZ).
There was two problems: PK needed to improve his play and the perception off the ice. He did it with flying colors.

He should expect results in his next contract.
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Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
\the long-term impact is at best going to be only somewhat negative (we lose 2-4 years of Subban in the 4.5-5.5M$ range, & his next contract, which will likely have to be a HUGE payday, now coincides with the 2nd contracts for Galch/Gallagher/Tinordi -let's hope the team is still swinging the bridge hammer to all new RFA's- & Eller/Emelin/Diaz will all be on new, higher contracts).
For the other players, we will see.
Habs is not a cheap team as shown with Gomez and Kaberle (to be seen).

At 6M, PK break even. He will most likely get 6.5M but for a longer term.
If PK stops to play PP with Markov and gets a 50-55 points season, what happens?
Markov - Diaz did pretty well before PK came back.

Next season will tell us a lot more.
Give me on d-men who did not get his best numbers with Markov.
Markov-Diaz was very good before PK came back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
At worst, he's brilliant next year (in norris contention again) a bit jaded, and forces the issue demanding to be paid as one of the top 2-4 dmen in the league (7M$+)...
At worst, he gets 50-55 points while Karlsson gets 75 points and Letang gets 85 points.
Given their respective performance, you need to hope that Karlsson and Letang are injured.

BTW, I think PK is better than them in defense but we all know that offense numbers are more important.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
then it becomes a massive blunder. Timing is a big part of putting together a championship caliber team and riding it through a few
seasons... having dman playing at/near Norris level from 26-28 @ a cap hit under 6M$ (which is what we would have had... maybe even under 5M$) is a GREAT way to milk the cap for all it's worth.
That cap hit would have been for 5 years at most...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
Habs weren't going to be a serious contender this year, likely not next year either... better player assessment of Subban (and there were more than enough signs that he was worth the 4.5-5.5M$ it would have taken for a multi-year deal...) would have given the team a much better cap flexibility situation in MB's year 3-4 & maybe 5, exactly when a core of Price, Pacioretty, Subban, Galch, Eller, Gallagher, Tinordi, Beaulieu would be theoretically be ready to take a big step forward.
Previous year, PK was not playing at Norris level.
In 2011-12, he played 24 minutes per game not 26-28 minutes despite Markov not being there.
That's two minutes more that Gorges and 6 minutes more than Diaz and Emelin who were both rookies.

Let's wait and see.
At this point, you are saying that PK will get 7M.
If he is worth 7M, might as well wait and see.
It goes both ways: PK could want 6.5-7M but can he repeat again and get the Norris again.
Worst case, he is and would get 7M.
But he could as well end up drop for a year and get only 6M.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miller Time View Post
Being a GM is all about risk management... in this case, I think it was obvious from the start that they put their emphasis in the wrong place, and the end result is that they got burned for it. No foresight/hindsight required, just better player assessment.
Hindsight is a prerogative that you have.
But managing SCap is not your task. Neither managing PK.
I really hope that PK will become a regular Norris winner.

Given this, I would be ready to give him 6-6.5 for 7 or 8 years.
Now, it you think that he is worth 7-8M per year, then we should revisit this in a few years.

I want to see PK with us for the next 9 years.
Hopefully, they can agree with a deal around 6-6.5M for 8 years.
If PK wants 7M per year, then we should wait and see.

Worst case, he gets and offer sheet a la Weber at 7.8M.
The only difference: Weber was offered this deal expecting the Predators could not match (including the bonuses).
Actually, I was surprised to see the Pred match it.
Obviously we can.
I would be curious to see the Flyers do an offer sheet like that with Couturier, Schenn and Giroux as RFA and us having 10M more then the Flyers available...

I think the basic point is the following: we might have sign him at 5M but at the end of the day, we will sign him at 6-6.5M for a longer time.
I need to understand: most of your arguments are based on PK wanting a 4.5-5.5M per year for 5 years (at least).
Any proof of that?

Habs management wants to keep PK and he wants to stay with us.

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06-20-2013, 05:43 AM
  #428
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Let's try to start with facts:
How much was asked by Subban and for how many year?

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06-20-2013, 05:48 AM
  #429
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PK will ink his long term extension next year, and for how much, I dont care!
We can only be so lucky he is a hab.

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06-20-2013, 08:40 AM
  #430
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No, no. The bridge contract MADE subban the player he is right now. You just don't understand.
lol? I dont think that changed anyting, he would have played as well with a bigger contract, Subban not the type of player sitting on monney and doing nothing. We all knew before this season that he have so much will to win the stanley cup and to improve his game. And we also all knew he was such a unique and dominant player before that season. I guess haters who didn't believed in him now are going to bite themself. Like MB. Because hes going to get more monney now and MB going to pay every penny Subban is missing on that bridge contract that i have criticized since the start. To be honest, i found the contract dispute lame and i found the 2,8m per year also totally lame. The guy was our #1 defenseman for all season last year, he played with big heart every game. Now that such a speical way to thanks our best young talented players, bringing them in a fkin contract dispute and lowballin them like they fking animals. I'd say thx god he won Norris, now its back into MB face, such a bad move, combined with DD contract.

Well even tought that was probably the worst MB move yet, he have done quite good moves with Cole and Prust i guess...so bad and good moves, i find it normal he didnt won GM of year for that.

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06-20-2013, 09:01 AM
  #431
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I love the "I told you so" comments now that Subban has won a Norris in a pseudo season. It sure does make posters feel better about themselves when they pretend they predicted this. Of course people knew he was going to have a good year of course, but the best year for a dman in the league?

When looking at this contract I think the next contract should be taken into account. So if its an 7 or 8 year deal, people should remember that MB actually had him locked up for 9-10 years because of this bridge deal. We have Subban for longer, and he is being paid according to his accomplishments. Not bad at all.

Anyway, if people think MB is stressing out over this then they haven't thought it through. MB is grinning ear to ear. Subban playing the way he did is great news to MB.


Last edited by bjac: 06-20-2013 at 09:07 AM.
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06-20-2013, 09:04 AM
  #432
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
The moment of truth is almost upon us.

What will Bergevin do with the money he saved on Subban's bridge contract?
That money (and more) is used by the new CBA with the salary cap going down. Smart move.

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06-20-2013, 09:11 AM
  #433
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You are right about PK improving.
But his PPP with Markov was the biggest improvement.


Remove Markov from the equation and PK get 15-20 PPP and is not even nominated for Norris.

At 6M, PK break even. He will most likely get 6.5M but for a longer term.
If PK stops to play PP with Markov and gets a 50-55 points season, what happens?
Markov - Diaz did pretty well before PK came back.


Whats going on with ur Markov making Subban better. Dude, one guy is responsable for this improvement: PK. Not Markov. Markov did quite fine. I think Mb asked way too much of him and it started to show after first half of the season.

Next season will tell us a lot more.
Give me on d-men who did not get his best numbers with Markov.
Markov-Diaz was very good before PK came back.


Markov-Diaz was pretty good before Diaz get injuried after 15 games* and Markov was pretty good before competition become better and he become tired.

At worst, he gets 50-55 points while Karlsson gets 75 points and Letang gets 85 points.
Given their respective performance, you need to hope that Karlsson and Letang are injured.


Lol our of those 3, Subban is going to pull the best season next year.

Previous year, PK was not playing at Norris level.
In 2011-12, he played 24 minutes per game not 26-28 minutes despite Markov not being there.
That's two minutes more that Gorges and 6 minutes more than Diaz and Emelin who were both rookies.


He was actually playing about 28 min a game for the second half of the season. So yeah, he had a much bigger rôle last year and he was really successful in shutting opposite team best lines. I hope Diaz improve alot next year because he did such a poor showing in playoffs.

If PK wants 7M per year, then we should wait and see.
Yea wait for what? To sign Gomez 7M instead? Dude see Suter gets 9m a year and i think Subban deserve as much. 7M a year would be a reallllly good deal for the habs, specially if they can lock him for more than 6-7 years.

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06-20-2013, 09:47 AM
  #434
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Anything less than 7.5 million is a hometown discount.

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06-20-2013, 09:47 AM
  #435
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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
You are right about PK improving.
But his PPP with Markov was the biggest improvement.
He is going to continue to be a top-10 d-men (most likely top-5) for years to go.
But Markov was the biggest reason PK improved his performance.

Remove Markov from the equation and PK get 15-20 PPP and is not even nominated for Norris.
Does it really matter if he would've scored less on the PP? He would still be a number #1 defenceman which is worth more than the 5.5 he was asking.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 24get View Post
So did Myers and regressed.

But you need to bring things in perspective.
When Habs were able to deal with PK again, Gomez was still on the books.
Actually, it was expected that Gomez would stay on the books for the whole season.
It was Gomez case that ended up the NHL to change the rules.
But from MB point of view, everything was already in motion.
And plenty of players didn't regress. Myers had one big year followed by a down year before he signed his deal so there were already signs that he wasn't as good as his rookie year. PK improved from his 1st to his 2nd year which is a big difference.

Also Gomez was still on the books for us last year. The buyout allowed him to play but we still had his 7.3m dollar cap hit last season. We are only off the hook this coming season.

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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
So it was 4.5-5.5 (no proof here): for one year, two years, five years?

If PK was looking for 5M for 5 years, he should be OK with 6M X 8 years.
As far as we know, PK could have asked for 5.5 for one year.

Any link to prove he wanted x for y years?
Why would he be ok with 6M for 8 years now that he has a Norris? His 5m was because he was only a potential Norris winner, now that he is one it's worth much more than 1m. Also since we are now buying up a small number of RFA years compared to before that will also increase the $ amount.

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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
There was two problems: PK needed to improve his play and the perception off the ice. He did it with flying colors.
He has no control over how people perceive him. Can you point to a single example of an off ice issue PK caused?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 24get View Post
At 6M, PK break even. He will most likely get 6.5M but for a longer term.
If PK stops to play PP with Markov and gets a 50-55 points season, what happens?
Markov - Diaz did pretty well before PK came back.

Next season will tell us a lot more.
Give me on d-men who did not get his best numbers with Markov.
Markov-Diaz was very good before PK came back.

At worst, he gets 50-55 points while Karlsson gets 75 points and Letang gets 85 points.
Given their respective performance, you need to hope that Karlsson and Letang are injured.
That's the whole point we are now going to have to pay him as a 70pt Norris trophy winner. We had the chance to pay him as a top pairing guy with potential. If he averages out to be a consistent 50-55pt 2-way defenceman then 5.5m is still a bargain. But if we end up having to pay 7.5m it becomes less so and people will think he's overpaid. Just look at Price, we gave him the bridge deal and then had to pay a premium afterwards and now everyone thinks he's overpaid. If we had signed him to a 5m deal then people would think it's much better.

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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
BTW, I think PK is better than them in defense but we all know that offense numbers are more important.
More important for what? Winning trophys or winning hockey games?


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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
Previous year, PK was not playing at Norris level.
In 2011-12, he played 24 minutes per game not 26-28 minutes despite Markov not being there.
That's two minutes more that Gorges and 6 minutes more than Diaz and Emelin who were both rookies.
It doesn't matter if we was at a Norris level. A whole bunch of people saw the potential for one within the next 5 years. Since he did win it's clearly a case of bad player evaluation on MB's part. Hopefully it's not a pattern and was simply a one off mistake because he spent his time out west and didn't know PK well.


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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
Hindsight is a prerogative that you have.
But managing SCap is not your task. Neither managing PK.
I really hope that PK will become a regular Norris winner.
Just because it's not our job doesn't mean we shouldn't discuss it. That's the whole point of these boards.

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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
Given this, I would be ready to give him 6-6.5 for 7 or 8 years.
Now, it you think that he is worth 7-8M per year, then we should revisit this in a few years.

I want to see PK with us for the next 9 years.
Hopefully, they can agree with a deal around 6-6.5M for 8 years.
If PK wants 7M per year, then we should wait and see.
It's not really a question of what we think he's worth. We will now be in a position where we basically have to give PK whatever he wants. We gave up our position in order to get two cheap years. It's clear that was a bad decision.

Personally I want PK for more than 9 years, we made it less likely for PK to take a hometown discount to stay with us in order to get 2 cheap years from him.

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06-20-2013, 10:57 AM
  #436
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Arpon Basu ‏@ArponBasu 4m When asked if #Habs would have negotiated differently with Subban had they known he would win the Norris, Bergevin just said, "No."

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06-20-2013, 10:58 AM
  #437
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Arpon Basu ‏@ArponBasu 4m When asked if #Habs would have negotiated differently with Subban had they known he would win the Norris, Bergevin just said, "No."
It was and still is the right thing to do. That bridge contracts allows us an extra 2 years of PK as well. Now sign the guy 8 years Marc!

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06-20-2013, 11:41 AM
  #438
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Arpon Basu ‏@ArponBasu 4m When asked if #Habs would have negotiated differently with Subban had they known he would win the Norris, Bergevin just said, "No."
If Bergevin trades Subban I'll think it was a brilliant move but if we open the vault for him it was an idiotic move.

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06-20-2013, 11:46 AM
  #439
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Arpon Basu ‏@ArponBasu 4m When asked if #Habs would have negotiated differently with Subban had they known he would win the Norris, Bergevin just said, "No."
And Brian Burke maintained that he still would've traded his picks for Kessel even if he knew it would've been the 2nd overall. I wouldn't read to much into it

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06-20-2013, 12:21 PM
  #440
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If Bergevin trades Subban I'll think it was a brilliant move but if we open the vault for him it was an idiotic move.
Lol, trading Subban is not even an option. It would probably come down as the the top 3 worst moves of the decade. Not to mention the habs would probably loose half of their fans.

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06-20-2013, 12:44 PM
  #441
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Lol, trading Subban is not even an option. It would probably come down as the the top 3 worst moves of the decade. Not to mention the habs would probably loose half of their fans.
We won't lose any Hab's fans but we might lose some Subban fans. The Bell Centre is still going to be sold out and I'm still going to be a Hab fan whether Subban is here or not.

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06-20-2013, 12:49 PM
  #442
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Arpon Basu ‏@ArponBasu 4m When asked if #Habs would have negotiated differently with Subban had they known he would win the Norris, Bergevin just said, "No."
That's basically just asking him ' Did you **** up?'. What's the guy going to say?

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06-20-2013, 12:53 PM
  #443
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We won't lose any Hab's fans but we might lose some Subban fans. The Bell Centre is still going to be sold out and I'm still going to be a Hab fan whether Subban is here or not.
Thats good for you. But remember first pratice game habs vs habs. The crowd was chanting 'subban, subban, subban'...Why? cuz they wanted to see him there. Right now it would be even worst if he misses. And how many Subban's jersey and T-shirt iv'e seen this year...

Yea but when he leave you can always root for Markov. Go Markov! skate skate! oh i hope he make us win the series! *sigh*. Oh or maybe Diaz...hey pass pass!! *oh ...dont pass anymore plz* (swiss league over here ---->

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06-20-2013, 12:57 PM
  #444
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And Brian Burke maintained that he still would've traded his picks for Kessel even if he knew it would've been the 2nd overall. I wouldn't read to much into it
Signing Subban to a "bridge" contract worked out a lot better for the Habs than the Kessel deal for Toronto, bad comparison.

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06-20-2013, 01:38 PM
  #445
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The only problem with the bridge deal was the money. MB should have added 1 or 2M in the second year, just to sweeten the deal and keep Subban in a better mood for the next negociation.

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06-20-2013, 01:40 PM
  #446
Frozenice
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Originally Posted by NewbieOfGames View Post
Thats good for you. But remember first pratice game habs vs habs. The crowd was chanting 'subban, subban, subban'...Why? cuz they wanted to see him there. Right now it would be even worst if he misses. And how many Subban's jersey and T-shirt iv'e seen this year...

Yea but when he leave you can always root for Markov. Go Markov! skate skate! oh i hope he make us win the series! *sigh*. Oh or maybe Diaz...hey pass pass!! *oh ...dont pass anymore plz* (swiss league over here ---->
Mocking Markov or Diaz because they aren't hip and cool enough for you, got it. Maybe that's the kind of team Bergevin wants.

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06-20-2013, 01:43 PM
  #447
Frozenice
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The only problem with the bridge deal was the money. MB should have added 1 or 2M in the second year, just to sweeten the deal and keep Subban in a better mood for the next negociation.
At a minimum or Bergevin could of thrown in a $3 million signing bonus. It's pretty hard to justify that contract in the context of now, which makes it look even worse then when it was signed.

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06-20-2013, 01:56 PM
  #448
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Mocking Markov or Diaz because they aren't hip and cool enough for you, got it. Maybe that's the kind of team Bergevin wants.
Markov can still be 'ok' on a diminished role. With less TOI and specially less at 5v5. Diaz can be good on the swiss league or 10 games in the NHL.

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06-20-2013, 01:59 PM
  #449
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Not sure if it was mentioned in here, but Subban was supposed to have an on-air interview with Nilan at 1:30pm today, but said he couldn't make it -- via text message -- because he was one the phone with his agent. Not going to speculate anything because it really could be nothing at all, but it's a bit weird for someone to be on the phone with their agent in June.

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Old
06-20-2013, 02:01 PM
  #450
Habsterix*
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Arpon Basu ‏@ArponBasu 4m When asked if #Habs would have negotiated differently with Subban had they known he would win the Norris, Bergevin just said, "No."
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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
That's basically just asking him ' Did you **** up?'. What's the guy going to say?
No it's not. I truly believe that he's convinced having done the right thing and I agree with him. He will have had Subban at a discount for two years with the cap going down, knowing that the price will go up for his next contract, just like he did for others before. He also knows that if push comes to shove, Makov and Gionta's contracts will expire by then and it's very much likely that the cap will go back up, as it's already predicted that it will reach the same level it is today, around $70M.

Because some can't understand or simply turn a blind eye to the financial implication of the game doesn't make Bergevin's decision a bad one.

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