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2013 NHL Draft Talk Part V: Flyers own the 11th overall pick

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Old
06-21-2013, 04:59 PM
  #676
Hockeypete49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
Yep, and that scares me. I know Morin has a lot of the physical tools and has an excellent hockey IQ, but damn, that 5 to 6 year window before he makes an impact is something else. At a minimum, you're looking at a guy who will fulfill his junior eligibility and then at least 2 seasons in the AHL before he's called up to play in the NHL on a regular basis. If that's the case, I'd rather the Flyers draft Nikita Zadorov. The big Russian kid is only an inch shorter than Morin, but he's about 25 pounds heavier and is just as mean.
You and I agree on most things. But I disagree with your timeframe. I gave up years ago trying to predict when a 17 year old matures. This kid was not even on most radars five six months ago. Now he has skyrocked up the charts. So I predict two, three years tops. However if they want someone who could play next year then they very well could go for Ristolainen. I really feel that young man could step right in and play next season. Morin's ceiling is way higher than Zadorov's, way higher.

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06-21-2013, 07:14 PM
  #677
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Originally Posted by Hockeypete49 View Post
You and I agree on most things. But I disagree with your timeframe. I gave up years ago trying to predict when a 17 year old matures. This kid was not even on most radars five six months ago. Now he has skyrocked up the charts. So I predict two, three years tops. However if they want someone who could play next year then they very well could go for Ristolainen. I really feel that young man could step right in and play next season. Morin's ceiling is way higher than Zadorov's, way higher.
Please de-conflict these statements for me. You gave up projecting how 17 year olds develop, but somehow are able to safely project that the ceiling of one player is miles better than another player... and coincidently, the two players being compared are probably the two most similar players of any being discussed in this thread.....

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06-21-2013, 07:19 PM
  #678
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Originally Posted by GrindNMuck View Post
And you guys are saying Lindholm played in the Sweden Pro. Well i believe Artturi Lehkonen played Finland Pro as well and put up 30 points in 45 games.
I understand your overall point about drafting for need, but Lindholm is damn good.

Also, the comparison is pretty poor, there are a few differences that need to be considered, Lindholm is clearly the better player by some way.


A. Elias is already 190lbs + and 6ft... Lehkonen is 150lbs and about 5ft9.

B. Elias is one of the best skaters in the draft... Lehkonen's skating is a concern.

C. Brynas are arguably a worse team than Kalpa in their league with less scoring throughout the lineup, Brynas scored at 2.2 per game, Kalpa at 2.86.

D. The SM Liiga is higher scoring... 5.25 GPG compared to 4.78 GPG in SHL.

E. The SHL is a far better league... players who have switched between the two in the last few years have shown this, they get about 40-50% less points on average in the SHL compared to SM Liiga...

SHL to SM Liiga:

Vittaluoma: 11-12 SHL: 55GP 6G 9A 15P
12-13 SM Liiga: 58GP 18G 38A 56P

Joakim Eriksson: 10-11 SHL: 53GP 8G 20A 28P
11-12 SM Liiga: 47GP 12G 25A 37P

Adam Masuhr: 07-08 SHL: 51GP 6G 8A 14P
09-10 SM Liiga: 42GP 16G 15A 31P

SM Liiga to SHL:

Koivisto: 08-09 SM Liiga: 58GP 23G 39A 62P
10-11 SHL: 54GP 14G 9A 23P

Vihko: 09-10 SM Liiga: 56GP 25G 15A 40P
10-11 SHL: 54GP 11G 17A 28P

Pyrola: 06-07 SM Liiga: 56GP 28G 17A 45P
07-08 SHL: 46GP 17G 16A 33P

SM Liiga is equal to the Allsvenskan, frankly, Lehkonen would either be putting up 15 points in the SHL... or probably not be playing, and instead be loaned to Allsevenskan or u-20.

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Old
06-21-2013, 07:42 PM
  #679
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Originally Posted by GrindNMuck View Post
The Flyers need big, strong, good defensemen. They don't need Lindholm.


Homage to Chris Shafer

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06-21-2013, 07:46 PM
  #680
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Where are you getting this five to six years stuff?

How do you know how long he'll take? I'm not saying he'll be ready in one or two years, but jeez, a lot can happen in 3-4 years time. Who are you to say a minimum of five years?
Five to six years is the norm for a defender like Morin. As you mention in your paragraph below, he is raw. To start, he needs to put on weight. He's 6'6 and he's barely 200 pounds. At a minimum, he's going to need 25 to 30 pounds of muscle to add to his frame. Even then, 6'6 and 230 pounds is still a bit light.

Next, his skating. He's a fine skater, but he's got serious problems with pivoting and he can be beaten very easily by going outside on him. His footwork is attrocious and it needs to get better. Once again, with bigger defenders, that takes time. In Morin's case, because he's so top heavy, his center of gravity is extremely high and he can be knocked off the puck rather easily.

Third, his offensive game. He's got the tools, but his shot is incredibly inaccurate. On top of it, because he's rarely used in offensive situations, he needs to get that time in under his belt and he needs to refine his offensive game.

Morin might make the NHL in the next couple of years, but he's several years away from making a serious impact at the NHL level. Five to six years from draft day and yeah, he'll probably make his mark.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
I know Morin is a bit of a project, but you can't say he's five to six years away just because he's big and raw. That's a massive window of time where a whole lot of things can happen.
Five to six years is the norm with big defensemen. Chris Pronger really didn't put it all together until his 7th season in the league. Zdeno Chara was also in his 7th season when he put it all together. Victor Hedman is starting his fifth season and he still hasn't put it all together. Tyler Myers is also starting his fifth season and he's fallen off completely and is slowly putting it back together.

Big defensemen like Morin are usually around the 5 to 6 year mark before they make an impact. I stand by the 5 to 6 year mark. I've seen enough of Sam Morin (the benefit of being a part time scout is that I get access to all the games from the QMJHL, OHL and WHL) and I can say with certainty is that any team who drafts him does so knowing that he is a big project and that his time frame is going to be five or six years. That's not to say he doesn't have talent, but it's going to take him a long time to put it all together. It always does with big defenders.

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06-21-2013, 07:55 PM
  #681
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
Five to six years is the norm for a defender like Morin. As you mention in your paragraph below, he is raw. To start, he needs to put on weight. He's 6'6 and he's barely 200 pounds. At a minimum, he's going to need 25 to 30 pounds of muscle to add to his frame. Even then, 6'6 and 230 pounds is still a bit light.

Next, his skating. He's a fine skater, but he's got serious problems with pivoting and he can be beaten very easily by going outside on him. His footwork is attrocious and it needs to get better. Once again, with bigger defenders, that takes time. In Morin's case, because he's so top heavy, his center of gravity is extremely high and he can be knocked off the puck rather easily.

Third, his offensive game. He's got the tools, but his shot is incredibly inaccurate. On top of it, because he's rarely used in offensive situations, he needs to get that time in under his belt and he needs to refine his offensive game.

Morin might make the NHL in the next couple of years, but he's several years away from making a serious impact at the NHL level. Five to six years from draft day and yeah, he'll probably make his mark.



Five to six years is the norm with big defensemen. Chris Pronger really didn't put it all together until his 7th season in the league. Zdeno Chara was also in his 7th season when he put it all together. Victor Hedman is starting his fifth season and he still hasn't put it all together. Tyler Myers is also starting his fifth season and he's fallen off completely and is slowly putting it back together.

Big defensemen like Morin are usually around the 5 to 6 year mark before they make an impact. I stand by the 5 to 6 year mark. I've seen enough of Sam Morin (the benefit of being a part time scout is that I get access to all the games from the QMJHL, OHL and WHL) and I can say with certainty is that any team who drafts him does so knowing that he is a big project and that his time frame is going to be five or six years. That's not to say he doesn't have talent, but it's going to take him a long time to put it all together. It always does with big defenders.
Okay, this is definitely fair. There's a difference between making an impact and cracking an NHL lineup. I thought you meant the latter. I think it's entirely possible he cracks the lineup in three years.

But making an impact? You're right on that. Five years is a safe bet. Agree with everything you said.

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06-21-2013, 07:56 PM
  #682
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Let's put it this way...

If MacKinnon, Drouin, Monahan, Nichushkin, Barkov, or Lindholm falls to 11, there are legitimately only 2 excuses not to take that player, whomever it happens to be:

1) Someone is willing to trade a hefty price for that player in terms of young, defensive assets or 1sts this year.

2) Seth Jones fell to 11 as well.

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06-21-2013, 08:25 PM
  #683
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Originally Posted by Hockeypete49 View Post
Morin's ceiling is way higher than Zadorov's, way higher.
I don't think there is any way to justify this conclusion. Didn't Dave Hunter compare Zadorov to Larry Robinson? The kid's potential is off the charts too.

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06-21-2013, 09:08 PM
  #684
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
I understand your overall point about drafting for need, but Lindholm is damn good.

Also, the comparison is pretty poor, there are a few differences that need to be considered, Lindholm is clearly the better player by some way.


A. Elias is already 190lbs + and 6ft... Lehkonen is 150lbs and about 5ft9.

B. Elias is one of the best skaters in the draft... Lehkonen's skating is a concern.

C. Brynas are arguably a worse team than Kalpa in their league with less scoring throughout the lineup, Brynas scored at 2.2 per game, Kalpa at 2.86.

D. The SM Liiga is higher scoring... 5.25 GPG compared to 4.78 GPG in SHL.

E. The SHL is a far better league... players who have switched between the two in the last few years have shown this, they get about 40-50% less points on average in the SHL compared to SM Liiga...

SHL to SM Liiga:

Vittaluoma: 11-12 SHL: 55GP 6G 9A 15P
12-13 SM Liiga: 58GP 18G 38A 56P

Joakim Eriksson: 10-11 SHL: 53GP 8G 20A 28P
11-12 SM Liiga: 47GP 12G 25A 37P

Adam Masuhr: 07-08 SHL: 51GP 6G 8A 14P
09-10 SM Liiga: 42GP 16G 15A 31P

SM Liiga to SHL:

Koivisto: 08-09 SM Liiga: 58GP 23G 39A 62P
10-11 SHL: 54GP 14G 9A 23P

Vihko: 09-10 SM Liiga: 56GP 25G 15A 40P
10-11 SHL: 54GP 11G 17A 28P

Pyrola: 06-07 SM Liiga: 56GP 28G 17A 45P
07-08 SHL: 46GP 17G 16A 33P

SM Liiga is equal to the Allsvenskan, frankly, Lehkonen would either be putting up 15 points in the SHL... or probably not be playing, and instead be loaned to Allsevenskan or u-20.
And Lindholm has an extra year of development on Lehkonen as he has a late birthday. You bring up size as a negative, I actually see it as a positive. Where Lindholm is just about maxed out physically, Lehkonen has some projection to him. He had a hell of a season as a 17 year old, in a men's league, at 150 pounds. Just imagine what this kid could be like when he physically matures. Look at his face. He's got a baby face still. He's going to naturally mature at some point. Most Finns are late bloomers for whatever reason.

Call me crazy, but I think Lehkonen (if he makes it) at #41 is better value than Lindholm at #11.

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06-21-2013, 09:53 PM
  #685
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Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
Please de-conflict these statements for me. You gave up projecting how 17 year olds develop, but somehow are able to safely project that the ceiling of one player is miles better than another player... and coincidently, the two players being compared are probably the two most similar players of any being discussed in this thread.....
He said he gave up predicting WHEN they would mature (timeframe). The two statements are not directly conflicting. Nonetheless, id say none of us can make any predictions with certainty.

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06-21-2013, 10:03 PM
  #686
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You guys are talking about the wrong Swede. I can honestly see the Flyers taking Alexander Wennberg at 11. He seems like a real complete player with lots of tools. Compared to many of the defensemen talked about in this thread, he seems like a fairly safe pick. Alexander Wennberg projects to be a real solid 2nd line forward at any position with a small bust factor.

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06-22-2013, 07:20 AM
  #687
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I think we need to trade and move like 5-6 place up for a better 2nd round and pick Jordan Subban...

For the first round pick Zadorov or Ristolainen...Then the best scenario would be to trade for one of the 16th pick or 19th pick since each team (buffalo and Colombus) have multiple pick then we can add Morin, Morrissey or Pulock.

Two high rated and one good prospect D should stop the bleeding.
I just dont know what asset could be traded??? Read?? Mez??? 2014 1st or 2nd??? laughton (since couts will likely stay)???

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06-22-2013, 08:13 AM
  #688
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Originally Posted by FLYguy3911 View Post
And Lindholm has an extra year of development on Lehkonen as he has a late birthday. You bring up size as a negative, I actually see it as a positive. Where Lindholm is just about maxed out physically, Lehkonen has some projection to him. He had a hell of a season as a 17 year old, in a men's league, at 150 pounds. Just imagine what this kid could be like when he physically matures. Look at his face. He's got a baby face still. He's going to naturally mature at some point. Most Finns are late bloomers for whatever reason.

Call me crazy, but I think Lehkonen (if he makes it) at #41 is better value than Lindholm at #11.
I really want Lehkonen at 41. My top two choices are Euros (Ristolainen, Lehkonen) and I just can't see the Flyers going there with their NA bias.

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06-22-2013, 08:24 AM
  #689
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I really want Lehkonen at 41. My top two choices are Euros (Ristolainen, Lehkonen) and I just can't see the Flyers going there with their NA bias.
The Flyers have a North American bias? I'd love to hear your justification for saying that.

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06-22-2013, 08:38 AM
  #690
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The Flyers have a North American bias? I'd love to hear your justification for saying that.
Sure. They've used 5 of their 37 picks since Homer has been GM on kids playing in Europe. Last season was the first time they used 2 picks on kids in Europe under him.

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06-22-2013, 09:39 AM
  #691
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The Flyers have a North American bias? I'd love to hear your justification for saying that.
Of course they do. Ask Streit, Pitkanen, Sbisa, Bryzgalov, Timonen, Grossmann, Voracek, Gustafsson, Meszaros, Vasiliev, Straka and Raffl. They'll tell ya...

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06-22-2013, 10:13 AM
  #692
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Of course they do. Ask Streit, Pitkanen, Sbisa, Bryzgalov, Timonen, Grossmann, Voracek, Gustafsson, Meszaros, Vasiliev, Straka and Raffl. They'll tell ya...
In fairness, the Flyers only drafted three of those players - Pitkanen, Sbisa, and Vasiliev. With regards to Streit, Bryzgalov, Timonen, and Grossmann, they were already playing in the NHL when the Flyers acquired them. Sbisa, Voracek, Grustafsson, Meszaros, and Straka all played their hockey in North America either at the major junior level or the NCAA. The only guys that have been drafted or signed as free agents that played their junior and pro hockey in Europe were Pitkanen, Vasiliev, and Raffl. So yeah, you can definitely make a case that when it comes to drafting, the Flyers definitely have a bias to draft someone who played their hockey in North America, regardless of whether they're European, Canadian, or US citizen.

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06-22-2013, 10:43 AM
  #693
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If they had a NA bias-- they wouldn't have as many international players. They have a "can they play hockey" bias. They weren't even in love with Sbisa but they took him because they thought him the best pick where they were. I'm selling the NA bias stock.

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06-22-2013, 11:04 AM
  #694
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Who I'd take in order (if I was a team that had no needs):

1. MacKinnon
2. Jones
3. Drouin
4. Monahan
5. Nichushkin
6. Barkov
7. Lindholm
8. Nurse
9. Shinkaruk
10. Ristolainen
11. Horvat
12. Domi
13. Morrissey
14. Pulock
15. Gauthier
16. Zadorov
17. Theodore
18. Rychel
19. Mantha
20. Erne
Thanks for posting this and also to ll of the others who have laid out a mock draft in this thread. It takes guts because you know that you are going to get stoned for doing it. It is great to see these though since it allows others to see where your thinking is.
Two comments from me here. First, I think that Horvat will go ahead of the the Flyers pick, He is a good forward and there are teams that need that in their system. Secondly, I wonder what the recent splash in coaching hires does to the drafting list?

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06-22-2013, 11:43 AM
  #695
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I think you'll see more international players picked this year with the new 4 year signing window.

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06-22-2013, 11:54 AM
  #696
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
In fairness, the Flyers only drafted three of those players - Pitkanen, Sbisa, and Vasiliev. With regards to Streit, Bryzgalov, Timonen, and Grossmann, they were already playing in the NHL when the Flyers acquired them. Sbisa, Voracek, Grustafsson, Meszaros, and Straka all played their hockey in North America either at the major junior level or the NCAA. The only guys that have been drafted or signed as free agents that played their junior and pro hockey in Europe were Pitkanen, Vasiliev, and Raffl. So yeah, you can definitely make a case that when it comes to drafting, the Flyers definitely have a bias to draft someone who played their hockey in North America, regardless of whether they're European, Canadian, or US citizen.
Well, there was that Forsberg guy too...

Edit: Renberg as well.

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06-22-2013, 12:37 PM
  #697
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I'm about as big a proprietor of drafting a defenseman as anyone, but within reason. Obviously if it gets to our pick and lindholm and say a guy like nurse or Ristolainen are there as well, it makes it much more difficult to choose, but if Lindholm is there and nurse and Ristolainen are gone and you're choosing a guy like zadorov or Pulock over Lindholm, that's a BAD decision. Lindholm is a GREAT prospect and if the BPA decision is made that easy for you, it should be a no brainer to take Lindholm because be would undoubtedly be the BPA in that circumstance. However, like I previously stated, if you have the choice between nurse or Ristolainen and Lindholm, then it makes it much more dicey because either player could conceivably be the BPA depending on many different variables. I wouldn't be nearly as confused/angry if we took one of those two over Lindholm than zadorov or Pulock etc. that's reaching for a need, and you get into trouble a lot when you do that.

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06-22-2013, 12:45 PM
  #698
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Let's put it this way...

If MacKinnon, Drouin, Monahan, Nichushkin, Barkov, or Lindholm falls to 11, there are legitimately only 2 excuses not to take that player, whomever it happens to be:

1) Someone is willing to trade a hefty price for that player in terms of young, defensive assets or 1sts this year.

2) Seth Jones fell to 11 as well.
I agree with you Chris but what is your point? I am pretty sure anyone with even the least amount of hockey knowledge would agree with you. (you would hope).

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06-22-2013, 12:51 PM
  #699
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Okay, this is definitely fair. There's a difference between making an impact and cracking an NHL lineup. I thought you meant the latter. I think it's entirely possible he cracks the lineup in three years.

But making an impact? You're right on that. Five years is a safe bet. Agree with everything you said.
I agree. To make a lineup and impacting the league are two entirely different things. If that is the case then see Chris Shafer's list.

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06-22-2013, 12:56 PM
  #700
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If they had a NA bias-- they wouldn't have as many international players. They have a "can they play hockey" bias. They weren't even in love with Sbisa but they took him because they thought him the best pick where they were. I'm selling the NA bias stock.
Yup, when about 75% of the league is made up NA players the odds are stacked against us drafting a Euro. The Flyers were targeting Teuvo Teravainen with the 20th Pick before Chicago took him at 18 last year.

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