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Trading Up III: Does Anyone Have Incriminating Photos Of Burnaby Joe?

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Old
06-27-2013, 11:33 AM
  #326
Jame
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
He most certainly has the offensive ability to be around 50-60 pts, especially in a slightly less defensive role (read: not 32% offensive-zone start%). If "all" he ends up being is a 55-point perennial Selke candidate, oh darn.

Look at this bucket of trash player:

19 yr old season: 3-8-11 in 33 AHL games, 2-3-5 in 28 NHL games
20 yr old season: 30-28-58 in 78 AHL games
21 yr old season: 10-13-23 in 82 NHL games
22 yr old season: 6-10-16 in 48 NHL games

Hey guys, anyone want to trade some pretty good assets for this guy? "Nah, he's a third-liner, at best."

Can anyone name this player?
Ryan Kesler

well done

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06-27-2013, 11:34 AM
  #327
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
O'Reilly's already at 55 point production over the past 2 seasons (pace-wise this season obv) at such a young age. I think that's a bit strong for low-end since it seems pretty clear O'Reilly will be at least a 60 point player to this fella.
And Oreilly plays top 6 situations, with Landeskog on his wing...

Does anyone here think Oreilly puts up 55, with 30% ozone starts and max talbot on his wing, and no PP time.... instead?

i love Oreilly.... he's one of my favorite NHLers.... we had this conversation in the offseason... i would've shipped Ennis, +, + for Oreilly...

Couturier is going to be better

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06-27-2013, 11:37 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Ryan Kesler

well done
Correct. This idea that the hay is in the barn in terms of a player's offense at age 20 is sheer buffoonery. Mike Richards' best offensive season through his 21/22 yr old season was 32 pts in 59 games. And without looking, I'd almost guarantee neither Kesler nor M. Richards played the strictly defensive role that Couturier has been forced to play.

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06-27-2013, 11:37 AM
  #329
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
And Oreilly plays top 6 situations, with Landeskog on his wing...

Does anyone here think Oreilly puts up 55, with 30% ozone starts and max talbot on his wing, and no PP time.... instead?
That's not the point. The point is being a 60 pt player and elite defensive center is pretty high to be giving someone's low end.

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06-27-2013, 11:37 AM
  #330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
He most certainly has the offensive ability to be around 50-60 pts, especially in a slightly less defensive role (read: not 32% offensive-zone start%). If "all" he ends up being is a 55-point perennial Selke candidate, oh darn.

Look at this bucket of trash player:

19 yr old season: 3-8-11 in 33 AHL games, 2-3-5 in 28 NHL games
20 yr old season: 30-28-58 in 78 AHL games
21 yr old season: 10-13-23 in 82 NHL games
22 yr old season: 6-10-16 in 48 NHL games

Hey guys, anyone want to trade some pretty good assets for this guy? "Nah, he's a third-liner, at best."

Can anyone name this player?
I bet I can name a lot more players that started their career not scoring a lot and then continued to not score a lot.

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06-27-2013, 11:39 AM
  #331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLH View Post
I bet I can name a lot more players that started their career not scoring a lot and then continued to not score a lot.
Did any of them demonstrate a high level of defensive competency? Oh right, they probably didn't.

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06-27-2013, 11:39 AM
  #332
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
not exactly...

I'm arguing that he will be a puck dominant, complete game, #1 center... who reaches a consistent 60 pt production level

I think he's going to be a stronger Patrice Bergeron

other comparables : Logan Couture
Low end : Ryan Oreilly
High end : Anze Kopitar

Strong, Complete Game players, utilized in all situations... leaders... etc

I argue that he would be the #2 overall pick this year, at age 20 knowing what we know.... development has value... whether the internetz realizes it or not
How do you figure Ryan O'Reilly on the low end? O'Reilly's going to be a perennial 70 point guy, IMO.

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06-27-2013, 11:41 AM
  #333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLH View Post
I bet I can name a lot more players that started their career not scoring a lot and then continued to not score a lot.
That played in the NHL out of their draft year and received Selke votes? If you want to be obstinate, fine, but you know the underlying point that Couturier's offensive abilities should not be extrapolated from his 19 and 20 yr old seasons rings true, especially when one further considers his role.

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06-27-2013, 11:42 AM
  #334
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Correct. This idea that the hay is in the barn in terms of a player's offense at age 20 is sheer buffoonery. Mike Richards' best offensive season through his 21/22 yr old season was 32 pts in 59 games. And without looking, I'd almost guarantee neither Kesler nor M. Richards played the strictly defensive role that Couturier has been forced to play.
But no one is saying that they hay (?) is a little under 8 goals a season. In the barn. Consistently scoring 60 points with a defensive role take pretty elite offensive skills. I don't think he ever gets there.

It's just kind of bizarre to me that the expectations on this board were so high for him going into this year, he played poorly, and now they're even higher. But then again, most posters here seem to put advanced stats ahead of real life so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

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06-27-2013, 11:44 AM
  #335
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Did any of them demonstrate a high level of defensive competency? Oh right, they probably didn't.
What does that have to do with anything I'm saying? I've repeatedly said he is an excellent defensive center.

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06-27-2013, 11:49 AM
  #336
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Originally Posted by MLH View Post
What does that have to do with anything I'm saying? I've repeatedly said he is an excellent defensive center.
Because you keep ignoring the difficulty of his minutes while evaluating his performance.

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06-27-2013, 11:53 AM
  #337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLH View Post
I bet I can name a lot more players that started their career not scoring a lot and then continued to not score a lot.
I admit, I nearly fouled the monitor with my iced tea on that one.

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06-27-2013, 11:58 AM
  #338
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Hey look at this stud centers first 5 years in the league. Big, strong, good defensively, he came in the NHL at an even younger age then Couturier and produced much more.

18 years old: 82 gp, 13 g, 29 a, 42 p
19 years old: 46 gp, 7 g, 20 a, 27 p
20 years old: 82 gp, 17 g, 21 a, 38 p
21 years old: 82 gp, 30 g, 32 a, 62 p
22 years old: 82 gp, 22 g, 40 a, 62 p


This player proves that just because you make the jump to the NHL at 18 that it doesn't mean ****. Anyway Couturier was 19 when he made the NHL because he was a late birthday for the 11 draft.

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06-27-2013, 11:59 AM
  #339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLH View Post
But no one is saying that they hay (?) is a little under 8 goals a season. In the barn. Consistently scoring 60 points with a defensive role take pretty elite offensive skills. I don't think he ever gets there.

It's just kind of bizarre to me that the expectations on this board were so high for him going into this year, he played poorly, and now they're even higher. But then again, most posters here seem to put advanced stats ahead of real life so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.
advanced stats are real life in greater detail/context :

And you assume that Couturier would remain in a strictly defensive role... where as it would be more accurate to assume growth in his career leading more towards a Bergeron-esque role where defensive responsibility is a part of a bigger more important top line position.'

but instead you assume a 20 yr old will remain in the strict 3rd line defensive role through his development and into his prime... which on the whole, is rather absurd... considering his draft pedigree and skills

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06-27-2013, 12:03 PM
  #340
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Because you keep ignoring the difficulty of his minutes while evaluating his performance.
No, you continuously miss the point. His age and role are why his offensive numbers were putrid. I realize than in an injury free season removing these limitations he will not have 7 goals and 27 points going forward. He's going to be an excellent defensive center that will put up 40-50 points a season. A great player to have.

But not a player that you take #2 overall, will be elite in both zones, or will produce 50 assists in a season, or any of the other crazy exaggerations that consistently get made on this forum.

And let's not pretend that playing against opponents best offensive players is a death spell for your own production. A top defensive center would have pulled Vanek/Hodgson duo against Buffalo last year who are an abortion in their own end.

But my doubts were answered in another thread anyway. People just overrate the effect of advanced stats.

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06-27-2013, 12:05 PM
  #341
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Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Hey look at this stud centers first 5 years in the league. Big, strong, good defensively, he came in the NHL at an even younger age then Couturier and produced much more.

18 years old: 82 gp, 13 g, 29 a, 42 p
19 years old: 46 gp, 7 g, 20 a, 27 p
20 years old: 82 gp, 17 g, 21 a, 38 p
21 years old: 82 gp, 30 g, 32 a, 62 p
22 years old: 82 gp, 22 g, 40 a, 62 p


This player proves that just because you make the jump to the NHL at 18 that it doesn't mean ****. Anyway Couturier was 19 when he made the NHL because he was a late birthday for the 11 draft.
are you purposely ignoring the contextual stats?

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06-27-2013, 12:06 PM
  #342
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It would be really interesting to know what other teams are interested in Miller and what the bidding war could look like.

If St Louis is interested, what are they offering that would compete with what the Flyers could offer, for instance.

What other teams have called Regier up?

What teams are on Miller's list, so Regier can't really talk too much with them?

For instance, there are rumors that Florida are talking about getting Luongo back. If so, they might be interested in Miller, too. If Florida isn't on Miller's list, they might be even more intriguing than Philly.

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06-27-2013, 12:09 PM
  #343
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Originally Posted by MLH View Post
No, you continuously miss the point. His age and role are why his offensive numbers were putrid. I realize than in an injury free season removing these limitations he will not have 7 goals and 27 points going forward. He's going to be an excellent defensive center that will put up 40-50 points a season. A great player to have.
what makes you think your projection is more accurate? what evidence do you lay forth?

You understand the impact of his role on offensive production. that seems to be settled... but you then seem to allow that role to skew your perception on his offensive ceiling.


Quote:
But not a player that you take #2 overall, will be elite in both zones, or will produce 50 assists in a season, or any of the other crazy exaggerations that consistently get made on this forum.
What reason do you have to believe he can't be a 60-70 pt player in a 20 minute, top 6, all around, Bergeron-esque role

That was the belief in his draft year, and the fact that at 20 he's been dominating JUST the defensive side of the game, should do NOTHING to detract from his still very high offensive potential, not unlike any other draft eligible prospect today.

Quote:
And let's not pretend that playing against opponents best offensive players is a death spell for your own production. A top defensive center would have pulled Vanek/Hodgson duo against Buffalo last year who are an abortion in their own end.
o zone start %, no PP time

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But my doubts were answered in another thread anyway. People just overrate the effect of advanced stats.
that's a good cop out when someone has diddly squat to back up their position

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06-27-2013, 12:34 PM
  #344
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
that's a good cop out when someone has diddly squat to back up their position
It's not a cop out. Advanced stats have become a crutch for people with agendas. I just read that an increase in Couturier's offensive zone starts from 37% to 45% would lead to his point total growing roughly 50%.

He'll score 11 goals and 34 points next year and you'll talk about how he's a "building block" (Pat Kane need not apply - too many o-zone starts) because he started his shift in the defefensive zone 38% of the time and how he wasn't good enough to make either of the PP units so obviously his career path shows that he's the next Bergeron. (Obviously at this point we're going to ignore the fact that PB went for 31-42-73 at this age, doesn't support our argument.

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06-27-2013, 12:40 PM
  #345
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
are you purposely ignoring the contextual stats?
No but since people assume that since Kesler didn't produce at a young age that Couturier will. I didn't know people can predict the career path of a player who has scored 42 points combined in his first 123 games. Other players have came in at 18, put up seasons a lot better then Couturier and then never improve and reached their ceiling early. Scoring 4 goals in 46 games shows nothing except at the current moment he is a 3rd line center at best.

Considering the Sabres likely were one of if not the first team to use advanced stats, why have they failed to build a good team? I thought advanced stats are the holy grail and the end all to be all. Fact is, this isn't baseball and advanced stats aren't as informative as sabremetrics are. Hockey is a fluid game, not like Baseball. Advanced stats don't tell the whole story and are really being overstated around here. Especially when people like to discount things like goals and points and care more about offensive zone starts or Shots against/60. Does advanced stats differentiate shots that are prime scoring chances against ones that are from the outside and are harmless?

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06-27-2013, 12:40 PM
  #346
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Originally Posted by MLH View Post
It's not a cop out. Advanced stats have become a crutch for people with agendas. I just read that an increase in Couturier's offensive zone starts from 37% to 45% would lead to his point total growing roughly 50%.
Couturier was at 32%... would a 40% increase in offensive opportunities lead to a significant increase of offensive production... YES, I think so. Assuming that the increase in offensive opportunities was coupled with the improved linemates those situations would likely entail.

add in the additional PP time (non existent), that a growing into a more offensive role would also include... and yes, I think a 50% increase in production after a transition/growth period is actually a rather fair assumption.

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He'll score 11 goals and 34 points next year and you'll talk about how he's a "building block" (Pat Kane need not apply - too many o-zone starts) because he started his shift in the defefensive zone 38% of the time and how he wasn't good enough to make either of the PP units so obviously his career path shows that he's the next Bergeron. (Obviously at this point we're going to ignore the fact that PB went for 31-42-73 at this age, doesn't support our argument.
I'll judge whatever he does next year, within the context it was done.

your Bergeron example is silly... (post lock out run n gun NHL)... it's still the highest total of his career
context... get some

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06-27-2013, 12:41 PM
  #347
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLH View Post
But no one is saying that they hay (?) is a little under 8 goals a season. In the barn. Consistently scoring 60 points with a defensive role take pretty elite offensive skills. I don't think he ever gets there.

It's just kind of bizarre to me that the expectations on this board were so high for him going into this year, he played poorly, and now they're even higher. But then again, most posters here seem to put advanced stats ahead of real life so maybe I shouldn't be surprised.
How are "advanced stats" not part of "real life". Goal totals are somehow more real than zone start totals and percentages?

You don't need advanced stats to see that how a player is used affects his "real stats".

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06-27-2013, 12:41 PM
  #348
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Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
No but since people assume that since Kesler didn't produce at a young age that Couturier will. I didn't know people can predict the career path of a player who has scored 42 points combined in his first 123 games. Other players have came in at 18, put up seasons a lot better then Couturier and then never improve and reached their ceiling early. Scoring 4 goals in 46 games shows nothing except at the current moment he is a 3rd line center at best.
so your answer was "yes". got it.

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06-27-2013, 12:41 PM
  #349
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
here's my idea.... thoughts?

Miller, 8th, 16th
for
Couturier, 11th

for me, Couturier is worth more than the 8th

we get a top elite prospect (couturier)
we still draft 11th

perfect world... right?
Seems like overpayment, but on the other hand I'd be happy enough (Couturier is highest value piece of the deal at this stage IMO).

Why not simplify to Miller and 16th for Couturier ?

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06-27-2013, 12:43 PM
  #350
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Seems like overpayment, but on the other hand I'd be happy enough (Couturier is highest value piece of the deal at this stage IMO.

Why not simplify to Miller and 16th for Couturier ?
Couturier > 8th
11th > 16th

Miller is the payment for upgrading from 8 to Couturier, and 16 to 11

sure, i'd prefer your deal... but i am attempting to make fair deals...

instead of arguing about Miller's value... I am happy converting his trade value into improving the value of 2 of our most important rebuild assets

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