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The Mythical PK Subban

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06-29-2013, 12:17 PM
  #1
danisonfire
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The Mythical PK Subban

PK Subban is an extremely polarizing figure. This is a statistical breakdown to help dispel some of the “Myths” being passed as fact on HFBoards after the 2012-2013 season.

Sucks 5vs5:

Many people argue Subban is weak 5vs5, the statistics (or eye test for MTL fans) never seem to back this up. In the 2012-2013 season, Subban only had 10 ES points. This at first glance looks weak for a “defensively weak player”, the issue is the numbers don’t match that claim. The first thing that stands out in their argument is the following:

Since PK Subban scored so few points 5vs5, 4G 6A (4 primary assists), you would expect his +/- to be terrible. He was +12 on the season even with the low number of points.

Goals for/20: 1.041
Goals against/20: 0.535

Subban was on the ice for very few goals against (less then Chara this season), while being on the ice for close to double the goals for. This is what is fueling his +12 rating with such few points.

This table breaks down even further his success 5vs5 (Credit: Watsatheo)

PK SUBBAN
PlayerYearGamesOn-Ice GF/60minOff-Ice GF/60minOn-Ice Shots For/60minOff-Ice Shots For/60minOn-Ice GA/60minOff-Ice GA/60minOn-Ice Shots Against/60minOff-Ice Shots Against/60minlink
PK SUBBAN12/13423.152.5829.327.01.662.4920.826.8link
PK SUBBAN11/12812.802.1025.625.02.242.8025.728.2link
PK SUBBAN10/11772.232.1531.528.12.572.1526.229.0link

Has a terrible QOC/TOI:

The next myth is the QoC argument. Many claim he faced weak competition and didn’t deserve the Norris. For MTL fans, many of us already know he was eased into the lineup at the start of the season. In order for the QoC argument to hold water he would have had to see his numbers drop as he role increased. This simply never happened. In fact, he statistically improved as his role increased.

This shows several statistics by month as his role was changing. (Credit: Watsetheo again)



29 points in 28 games where he was given tough minutes. He was also a +9 during these games with increased TOI and QoC respectively.

These statistics also relate to QoC (Credit: Talks to Goalposts)

Career average zone starts:
Subban: 29.7% Offensive zone, 31.4% Defensive zone

Career average Teammate quality:
Subban: 48.7% goal ratio

Career average Opposition quality:
Subban: 50.4% goal ratio

Career average goal ratio:
Subban: 56.9%

Subban was used in different role this season (then his career to date) because the new coach found it brought the must value to the team. It is hard to argue against him considering the teams regular season performance.

Weak on the PK (tons of pun!):

Many claim Subban is weak on the penalty kill because he was used so sparingly this season in that role, This is simply not true. These are some statistics related to Subban being used defensively on the PK. I have used 100 min + to qualify.

2010-2011
Team PK ranking: 7th overall.
Subban (3rd most minutes): TOI: 185:03, GA/20: 1.081 (Lowest on his team)

2011-2012
Team PK ranking: 2nd overall.
Subban (2nd most minutes): TOI: 199:18, GA/20: 1.104 (Lowest on his team qualifying)

2012-2013
Team PK ranking: 23rd overall.
Subban: Does not qualify.

When Subban was given this role, he seems to have done decently in the past. I think it is unfair to label him a liability on the PK. I would also like to include that in 2012-2013, his GA/20 was much much higher, however he also had a drastic statistical outlier in the form of his goalies save % being 10 percent lower than team average. Once again not saying Subban is a god on the PK, just simply that the label of liability is very polarized.


Subban’s defensive elements are greatly underrated. Like many defensemen who contribute offensively, he seems to be thrown under the bus when it comes time to discuss them. Feel free to add whatever you would like on other issues / these issues. I had very little time


Last edited by danisonfire: 06-29-2013 at 12:32 PM.
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06-29-2013, 12:22 PM
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JayKing
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You should post this in the Subban vs Pietrangelo thread.

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06-29-2013, 12:23 PM
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Draft
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Go forth and multiply, sweet data.

Great job Danisonfire.

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06-29-2013, 12:26 PM
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uiCk
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Not that your data is not useful, and it's very appreciated, but anyone who watched him play in '11-'12 knows PK is a beast on 5on5.

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06-29-2013, 12:26 PM
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Interesting work, but I'm pretty sure 99% of the people on here are just as fond of Subban as you are. The guy just won the Norris...

that being said, PK Subban should have had some PK time last season, though I'm pretty sure Therrien just wanted him to keep his energy for ES and PP.

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06-29-2013, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by uiCk View Post
Not that your data is not useful, and it's very appreciated, but anyone who watched him play in '11-'12 knows PK is a beast on 5on5.
This.

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06-29-2013, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by daGreenGiant View Post
Interesting work, but I'm pretty sure 99% of the people on here are just as fond of Subban as you are. The guy just won the Norris...

that being said, PK Subban should have had some PK time last season, though I'm pretty sure Therrien just wanted him to keep his energy for ES and PP.
I'm pretty sure Therrien was actually trying to make PK a better person by underplaying him and overusing Markov. Gotta control that ego, right?

The PK was horrible and he refused to use the Habs' best Dman on it.

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06-29-2013, 12:51 PM
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danisonfire
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Originally Posted by daGreenGiant View Post
Interesting work, but I'm pretty sure 99% of the people on here are just as fond of Subban as you are. The guy just won the Norris...

that being said, PK Subban should have had some PK time last season, though I'm pretty sure Therrien just wanted him to keep his energy for ES and PP.

I have liked PK Subban for a long time. Norris or not he has/had what looks like a bright future. He took what people labelled his glaring weakness (6.0 C HF ), and has been focussing on improving himself. The determination + ability to handle/improve on criticisms are both great traits to have. Many people can't handle others pointing out their flaws.

I think you are right regarding Therrien, PK was amazing on the PP and was helping MTL score twice as many goals as against 5vs5. It was more beneficial to the team to use him in those roles. It may have also been him joining later than the rest of the team. The PK units might have been set. Possibly a mixture of both.

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06-29-2013, 12:58 PM
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Another blatant lie about Subban is his supposed 'attitude problems'...is there a player who does more charity work then Subban? Whether it's the work he does in his community or outside of it.

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06-29-2013, 01:03 PM
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06-29-2013, 01:23 PM
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Kriss E
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Originally Posted by 417 View Post
Another blatant lie about Subban is his supposed 'attitude problems'...is there a player who does more charity work then Subban? Whether it's the work he does in his community or outside of it.
To be honest, charity work is nothing but PR, I don't think it means much in terms of attitude. However, I agree that his supposed attitude problem is BS.
He just has a flamboyant personality, in no way is that a problem.

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06-29-2013, 01:47 PM
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He just has a flamboyant personality, in no way is that a problem.
I guess that depends on what Bergevin thinks of people with over-the-top personalities.

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06-29-2013, 02:08 PM
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I guess that depends on what Bergevin thinks of people with over-the-top personalities.
He hired Michel " I just want to make him a better person' Therrien.

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06-29-2013, 02:11 PM
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SB164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 417 View Post
Another blatant lie about Subban is his supposed 'attitude problems'...is there a player who does more charity work then Subban? Whether it's the work he does in his community or outside of it.
Can you imagine the reaction if Subban did anything similar to this?

"Joe Corvo was arrested in November 2002 in Boston after he grabbed a 34-year-old woman's buttocks in a restaurant. Restaurant staff told him to leave, but Corvo returned, punched the woman and then kicked her when she fell to the ground, police said. Corvo was given a three-year suspended sentence after he pleaded guilty to assault. Corvo was also suspended for three games by the Kings"

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06-29-2013, 03:47 PM
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danisonfire
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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
He hired Michel " I just want to make him a better person' Therrien.


As for his "antics" I see him as an extrovert. He was asked over the past few seasons to tone them down, and he has done exactly as he was told. Yes he still has emotion, but there is nothing wrong with that. I am all for the reduction of robots in this . There is a balance/line that he seems to be working towards.

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06-29-2013, 03:54 PM
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Great analysis! It's funny that the detractors point to his low Qoc and TOI this year but then completely ignore how much he was used in 2011-12.

Either Subban was elite defensively in 2011-12 and regressed this year(obviously not) or he's been elite defensively for the past 2 years and was just misused by Therrien.

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06-29-2013, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by SB164 View Post
Can you imagine the reaction if Subban did anything similar to this?

"Joe Corvo was arrested in November 2002 in Boston after he grabbed a 34-year-old woman's buttocks in a restaurant. Restaurant staff told him to leave, but Corvo returned, punched the woman and then kicked her when she fell to the ground, police said. Corvo was given a three-year suspended sentence after he pleaded guilty to assault. Corvo was also suspended for three games by the Kings"
Ha ha ha! Didn't remember that part! Now imagine the same story with Subban!!

I hope Therrien realizes that he has a great defensman in his lineup and plays Subban ES, PP, PK, when trailing, when leading, you name it.

Last year, Markov was overused and Subban was underused. Reduce Markov's TOI to 19-20 minutes max. and give the remainder to Subban. No brainer, IMO. Markov @ 20min. and lots of PP could be very effective come playoffs time.

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06-29-2013, 06:35 PM
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danisonfire
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
Ha ha ha! Didn't remember that part! Now imagine the same story with Subban!!

I hope Therrien realizes that he has a great defensman in his lineup and plays Subban ES, PP, PK, when trailing, when leading, you name it.

Last year, Markov was overused and Subban was underused. Reduce Markov's TOI to 19-20 minutes max. and give the remainder to Subban. No brainer, IMO. Markov @ 20min. and lots of PP could be very effective come playoffs time.
I hope this is what is done. Markov can still be very effective, but he now needs to be the insulated one in the lineup. His on ice vision is still extremely high and helps our team if used correctly.

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06-29-2013, 08:04 PM
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I hope this is what is done. Markov can still be very effective, but he now needs to be the insulated one in the lineup. His on ice vision is still extremely high and helps our team if used correctly.
Good thinking. This year, Subban was sort of insulated after his hold out. No need for that nonsense next year. He can play 27-29 minutes a night no problem. He's 24 and training like crazy, FFS.

And it's clear Markov needs reduced minutes to remain effective.

Actually, I think PK might be slightly pissed at our coaching staff. He didn't get the Norris because of them, he got it despite the fact he was underused.

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06-29-2013, 08:09 PM
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I hope we ca get him a proper partner on defence. Gorges or Markov do not belong on the first pairing.

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06-29-2013, 08:10 PM
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its nice to see the pk subban bandwagon at full capacity.she was barely half full at the end of january.

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06-29-2013, 09:38 PM
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danisonfire
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Originally Posted by haburger View Post
its nice to see the pk subban bandwagon at full capacity.she was barely half full at the end of january.
02-18-2011, 10:01 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by danisonfire View Post
Lets dig up the Kadri, Bozak and Monster threads too. In all reality both fan bases are crazy.

For me playing from age 2 I would go with Subban. Always found it hard to replace an Offensive defensmen who is still respectable in his own end. Specially one playing 28 min a night at age 21 crazy to think about.

As for Schenn the difference between defensive gap comparied to offensive gap is smaller. Most likely you will want schenn on the ice with a min left protecting a lead and Subban on when you are trying to tie the game. That being said the idea of Subban bringing sizable production while playing respectable defence is far to appealing to pass on. Sure Schenn should turning out slighty better in his end but not 25 points points as a rookie already, 28 minutes a night as the #1 defencemen different its simple really.
I wish more were on the "bandwagon" years ago. He has only grown as a player since that date!

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06-29-2013, 09:47 PM
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Another blatant lie about Subban is his supposed 'attitude problems'...is there a player who does more charity work then Subban? Whether it's the work he does in his community or outside of it.
Yikes, what does charity work have to do with attitude?

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06-29-2013, 09:52 PM
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Originally Posted by SB164 View Post
Can you imagine the reaction if Subban did anything similar to this?

"Joe Corvo was arrested in November 2002 in Boston after he grabbed a 34-year-old woman's buttocks in a restaurant. Restaurant staff told him to leave, but Corvo returned, punched the woman and then kicked her when she fell to the ground, police said. Corvo was given a three-year suspended sentence after he pleaded guilty to assault. Corvo was also suspended for three games by the Kings"
Or simply Lucic's verbal fight with his girlfriend, playing the "Do you know who I am?" card to the cops.

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06-30-2013, 01:05 AM
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Yikes, what does charity work have to do with attitude?
A lot actually, donating money and time isn't as easy as you think, regardless of being a professional athlete or not.

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