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The Luongo Thread: Part LXMIV - Cant stop. Wont stop.

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07-02-2013, 05:40 PM
  #226
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...how's it going to look if he has another poor year and Schneider rips it up for the Devils? No player deserves the kind of ****storm that's going to create.
We play the Devils twice next season - once in our building.

I can't imagine the **** storm that would come down if that was one of Luongo's off games.

 
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07-02-2013, 05:47 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by Dado View Post
We play the Devils twice next season - once in our building.

I can't imagine the **** storm that would come down if that was one of Luongo's off games.
Well in order for that to happen the Devils would spontaneously have to learn to score.

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07-02-2013, 05:55 PM
  #228
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I thought it was at 2/3 the salary but over double the amount of years? I might just be having a hard time deciphering your point here.

In my silly little mind, if Luongo wants out or sucks after his final year making $6.7m, he'll have $7m remaining on his contract.

To buy that out, they have to pay 2/3 of $7m or $4.67m. Now since there would be 4 years remaining, they can spread that $4.67m over 8 years, can't they?

That would be a $583,750 cap hit for 8 seasons.

In my eyes that is much more palatable than having to pay the cap recapture which would almost cripple our ability to ice a team.
That 2/3rds over twice the remaining term is the SALARY that's paid to the player, not the cap hit. The cap hit is calculated separately and is fairly punitive when you're buying out a heavily front loaded deal. Here's a calculator where you can select the year of the buyout and it'll calculate the cap hit for it:

http://www.capgeek.com/buyout-calculator/?player_id=683


The cap hits if he's bought out in 2018 (after his last $6.7M year) or 2019 (after his $3.4M year) are as I wrote above.

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07-02-2013, 06:12 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by Dado View Post
We play the Devils twice next season - once in our building.

I can't imagine the **** storm that would come down if that was one of Luongo's off games.
Or, could you imagine the apologists if cory loses? It definitely won't be his fault huh?

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07-02-2013, 06:21 PM
  #230
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We play the Devils twice next season - once in our building.

I can't imagine the **** storm that would come down if that was one of Luongo's off games.
That's the thing. If Luongo agrees to come back he's going to be under more scrutiny than ever if that's even possible, and he will be compared to Schneider. Now if these last 2 seasons are any indicator, Schneider is going to be right there competing for Vezina while Luongo's game is visibly on the decline.

That's a recipe for disaster, not to even mention the disgruntled Luongo's mental state (waited trade for over a year, sold his apartments, already disconnected himself from Vancouver) and the fact that his wife and kid(s?) live in Florida.

It's just going to be a toxic situation for Luongo and he's going to hate every second of it if it turns out badly (that's IMO very likely, again based on the last 2 seasons). Luongo seems like an awesome guy and he doesn't deserve this mess Gillis created. I'm kinda hoping he refuses to report, just to save himself from the horror and also to show Gillis how badly he dropped the ball here.

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07-02-2013, 06:21 PM
  #231
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Since I can only imagine this melodrama isn't yet over, I'm going to call it: Miller for Luongo. It wouldn't (and couldn't) have worked with Schneider still in the mix, so Gillis pulled the trigger draft day.

I dunno, I'm bored.

edit: And if it were to go down, allow me to prognosticate with respect to next year's Vezina finalists:

Schneider, Cory (NJD)
Luongo, Roberto (BUF)
Bryzgalov, Ilya (EDM)

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07-02-2013, 06:22 PM
  #232
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Or you start Lšck/Ericsson in the games against Jersey just to troll the world a little more.

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07-02-2013, 06:23 PM
  #233
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07-02-2013, 06:24 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by Finkle is Einhorn View Post
Since I can only imagine this melodrama isn't yet over, I'm going to call it: Miller for Luongo. It wouldn't (and couldn't) have worked with Schneider still in the mix, so Gillis pulled the trigger draft day.

I dunno, I'm bored.
If Luongo still wants out, I'd do that without a doubt.

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07-02-2013, 06:27 PM
  #235
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That's the thing. If Luongo agrees to come back he's going to be under more scrutiny than ever if that's even possible, and he will be compared to Schneider. Now if these last 2 seasons are any indicator, Schneider is going to be right there competing for Vezina while Luongo's game is visibly on the decline.
People won't give two ****'s about the Vezina if the Canucks are doing ok in the standings.

Take a good look at NJ's roster. If you thought the Canucks goaltending had to 'stand on their heads' to win games; NJ's forward corps are noticeably worse (probably blueline as well).

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07-02-2013, 06:39 PM
  #236
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People won't give two ****'s about the Vezina if the Canucks are doing ok in the standings.

Take a good look at NJ's roster. If you thought the Canucks goaltending had to 'stand on their heads' to win games; NJ's forward corps are noticeably worse (probably blueline as well).
Yeah, on paper it's a bad team. That won't stop anyone comparing and assessing how goalies play though; especially after the fact that the Canucks traded their number 1 goaltender because they couldn't move their backup's contract.

If Luongo and the Canucks win SC then it's fine. That's of course highly unlikely (just by default). Realistically, if you thought Luongo had it tough before, it's going to be worse in the future. And knowing how Luongo's been feeling about playing in Vancouver the last year or so, it's just not going to end well.

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07-02-2013, 06:53 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
We're not getting out of those penalties by buying him out. Even if we bought him out now, we'd still be on the hook for the "cap benefit" we've already received.
He's not going to retire. He'll either go on LTIR or get traded to a bottom feeder with us eating half his salary and throwing in a pick.

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07-02-2013, 07:37 PM
  #238
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He's not going to retire. He'll either go on LTIR or get traded to a bottom feeder with us eating half his salary and throwing in a pick.
LTIR only works if he's actually injured. People have this idea that a player just has to mention some vague symptoms and they'll get thrown on LTIR, but it doesn't work that way. For him to get on LTIR without actually being injured the team would have to get both him and the team doctors to agree to lie about the matter and then hope the league doesn't have him examined by their own doctors.

Trading him at the end of his career doesn't make much sense either for a host of reasons. The biggest factor is that Luongo would have to want to play until he's 43. If he wants to retire at 39, there's basically nothing the Canucks can do about it. Trading him won't work because that team would have to continue to pay him and devote a roster spot to him. And if the Canucks ate half the salary they'd also have to eat $2.7M of his cap hit which really puts them no further ahead than just accepting the penalty.

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07-02-2013, 07:46 PM
  #239
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Originally Posted by Finkle is Einhorn View Post
Since I can only imagine this melodrama isn't yet over, I'm going to call it: Miller for Luongo. It wouldn't (and couldn't) have worked with Schneider still in the mix, so Gillis pulled the trigger draft day.

I dunno, I'm bored.

edit: And if it were to go down, allow me to prognosticate with respect to next year's Vezina finalists:

Schneider, Cory (NJD)
Luongo, Roberto (BUF)
Bryzgalov, Ilya (EDM)

That might work. Bryz in EDM would be funny though.

I still think it's best to move on from Luongo in the near future. This situation can't be good, and the drama behind the scenes would be palpable, even if Luongo is a pro and plays out the string.

If he's willing to go anywhere, trade him to EDM. I still think they are looking for a better solution in net. If he's only willing to go to FLA, even after all of this, take on a buyout like Upshall and get it done. Then sign Bryz, or go with a tandem solution with Eriksson/other.

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07-02-2013, 07:54 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
LTIR only works if he's actually injured. People have this idea that a player just has to mention some vague symptoms and they'll get thrown on LTIR, but it doesn't work that way. For him to get on LTIR without actually being injured the team would have to get both him and the team doctors to agree to lie about the matter and then hope the league doesn't have him examined by their own doctors.

Trading him at the end of his career doesn't make much sense either for a host of reasons. The biggest factor is that Luongo would have to want to play until he's 43. If he wants to retire at 39, there's basically nothing the Canucks can do about it. Trading him won't work because that team would have to continue to pay him and devote a roster spot to him. And if the Canucks ate half the salary they'd also have to eat $2.7M of his cap hit which really puts them no further ahead than just accepting the penalty.
So what happens if at 39 Luongo gets waived and demoted but refuses to report? The cap hit might stay until he's 43, but there's probably a way to lose the salary through "disciplinary" means, making the cap hit easy to trade. Just an assumption on my part though.



Has there been any official comment from Lu? I haven't seen anything posted (other than the tweet about CS). Taking this long has to suggest he's still "discussing his options with his agent". Certainly infers he doesn't want to be here...

That doesn't mean he won't get over it and put this all behind him. But I don't feel it's safe to take it to the bank that he will. Luongo is a proud man, and Gillis just bent him over a barrel for 18 months. In Lu's mind he was probably already getting used to being on the East Coast or where ever. The way things have gone so far, watch Luongo not show up and have his contract voided after all this.

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07-02-2013, 07:58 PM
  #241
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Well in order for that to happen the Devils would spontaneously have to learn to score.
That's what we said about the Bruins in 2011 when they shelled us in the SCF.

We'll find a way to let the Devils score on us.

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07-02-2013, 08:05 PM
  #242
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He can now ask for a trade, but thatís not going to help. His contract canít be traded. He can sit out like Tim Thomas, and if thatís the case his cap hit will not count. It may seem outlandish for a player so competitive and one who has aspirations to be on Team Canada, but he was not planning to report for Canucks training camp in September if both he and Schneider were still on the team.

Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/sports/Ca...#ixzz2XwLEhPXP
Okay, help me out here. If the Canucks kept Schneider, and Luongo didn't report, as per the article, wouldn't that have resolved the issue?

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07-02-2013, 08:06 PM
  #243
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Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
LTIR only works if he's actually injured. People have this idea that a player just has to mention some vague symptoms and they'll get thrown on LTIR, but it doesn't work that way. For him to get on LTIR without actually being injured the team would have to get both him and the team doctors to agree to lie about the matter and then hope the league doesn't have him examined by their own doctors.

Trading him at the end of his career doesn't make much sense either for a host of reasons. The biggest factor is that Luongo would have to want to play until he's 43. If he wants to retire at 39, there's basically nothing the Canucks can do about it. Trading him won't work because that team would have to continue to pay him and devote a roster spot to him. And if the Canucks ate half the salary they'd also have to eat $2.7M of his cap hit which really puts them no further ahead than just accepting the penalty.
I may have asked this before, but what happens if he decides to take a year off and is suspended, a la Tim Thomas? He could easily do that for a couple years at the end of his contract before deciding he's finished.

Not saying he would -- only that it's feasible. It's also quite possible that the cap will be 90-100 million by the time this is an issue, or that the PA will convince the league to let the backsliding deals signed under the previous CBA slide during the next round of negotiations, or if some issue comes up and needs to be resolved before then.

I just don't know why it's such a huge concern, to be honest.

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07-02-2013, 08:17 PM
  #244
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That might work. Bryz in EDM would be funny though.

I still think it's best to move on from Luongo in the near future. This situation can't be good, and the drama behind the scenes would be palpable, even if Luongo is a pro and plays out the string.

If he's willing to go anywhere, trade him to EDM. I still think they are looking for a better solution in net. If he's only willing to go to FLA, even after all of this, take on a buyout like Upshall and get it done. Then sign Bryz, or go with a tandem solution with Eriksson/other.
I'm sure the way it went down was that management decided Luongo + the 9th overall was a better option than Schneider and whatever ramifications dumping Luongo would entail.

However, I could also be convinced that Gillis saw no other way out other than jettisoning both goaltenders. Say the likes of Miller was the only serviceable player being offered up in exchange for Lu. Dealing for Miller with Schneider still on the roster would a) limit opportunities at this year's draft, and b) weaken Schneider as a bargaining chip going forward. So he deals Schneider for as much as he can get on draft day with the knowledge that he'll be able to trade Luongo at a later date for another team's crease troubles. Likely? Not at all. But I've come to expect any possibility in this ongoing saga.

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Okay, help me out here. If the Canucks kept Schneider, and Luongo didn't report, as per the article, wouldn't that have resolved the issue?
Probably. Although I'm not sure how that plays out with the league, the PA, and being a bit of a PR nightmare in general.

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07-02-2013, 08:22 PM
  #245
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I may have asked this before, but what happens if he decides to take a year off and is suspended, a la Tim Thomas? He could easily do that for a couple years at the end of his contract before deciding he's finished.

Not saying he would -- only that it's feasible. It's also quite possible that the cap will be 90-100 million by the time this is an issue, or that the PA will convince the league to let the backsliding deals signed under the previous CBA slide during the next round of negotiations, or if some issue comes up and needs to be resolved before then.

I just don't know why it's such a huge concern, to be honest.
That's why I say pay half his contract and send him to a team who would keep him as an active contract but not ask him to show up. It'll cost them like 1.75m over 3 years but they get a much larger cap hit and a pick.

As far as LTIR goes, our medical staff has found some very convenient reasons for guys to dissapear up until the playoffs started. You really think it would be that hard to find a reason why a 39 year old goaltender couldn't play anymore?

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07-02-2013, 08:45 PM
  #246
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I'm sure the way it went down was that management decided Luongo + the 9th overall was a better option than Schneider and whatever ramifications dumping Luongo would entail.

However, I could also be convinced that Gillis saw no other way out other than jettisoning both goaltenders. Say the likes of Miller was the only serviceable player being offered up in exchange for Lu. Dealing for Miller with Schneider still on the roster would a) limit opportunities at this year's draft, and b) weaken Schneider as a bargaining chip going forward. So he deals Schneider for as much as he can get on draft day with the knowledge that he'll be able to trade Luongo at a later date for another team's crease troubles. Likely? Not at all. But I've come to expect any possibility in this ongoing saga.

I think it's quite logical to think this, actually. Having both Luongo and Schneider on the roster weakened Gillis's bargaining position. Every GM knew he had to get rid of one, and that he had been shopping Luongo for a full 1.5 years. So to them, patience was the game. They could out wait Gillis, and they did. However, if Schneider is/was re-introduced as a trade chip, well then that upsets the existing dynamic. Of course, Good GMs wouldn't bite, suspecting a ploy. Until they actually traded Schneider...

Sure, they didn't get full value, but they got good value (IMO, based on precedent). So now they don't have severe cap issues, and their other 1G is gone, leaving Luongo as the going concern. Now, teams left holding the bag, waiting for VAN to acquiesce to a deal, know that VAN won't because they only have one starter left. One starter left, without the pressure to deal him.

At this point, any team still looking for goaltending help, or an upgrade, could still approach the Canucks with a deal for Luongo. The situation isn't ideal, and everyone knows it, but they also know that VAN will be much more reticent to deal the only 1G option they have left. Did they just recreate the market for Luongo?

If Luongo is willing to go anywhere, and not just FLA, then I hope VAN definitely explores trading him to EDM. They have Dubnyk, whom they can return here, plus other pieces, and then this whole situation is put behind them. They also can put more money at the forward position, to round out their roster as a result

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07-02-2013, 08:50 PM
  #247
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That's what we said about the Bruins in 2011 when they shelled us in the SCF.

We'll find a way to let the Devils score on us.
Except the Bruins were 5th in scoring during the regular season that Cup winning year.

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07-02-2013, 08:54 PM
  #248
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There's no goaltender available who would be better than Luongo. Maybe Thomas, but that would never happen.

Trading Luongo for Miller would make our cap situation untenable.

Good goaltending is essential in being competitive, and if management flipped Luongo for Dubnyk + picks I would call for their heads.

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07-02-2013, 09:16 PM
  #249
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So what happens if at 39 Luongo gets waived and demoted but refuses to report? The cap hit might stay until he's 43, but there's probably a way to lose the salary through "disciplinary" means, making the cap hit easy to trade. Just an assumption on my part though.
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I may have asked this before, but what happens if he decides to take a year off and is suspended, a la Tim Thomas? He could easily do that for a couple years at the end of his contract before deciding he's finished.
The threshold for the cap recapture to take effect is that the player is "not playing and is not receiving Salary pursuant to his Long-Term Contract". In the situations you guys are describing I'm almost positive they'd take effect since he wouldn't be playing and wouldn't be getting paid.

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07-02-2013, 09:22 PM
  #250
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That's why I say pay half his contract and send him to a team who would keep him as an active contract but not ask him to show up. It'll cost them like 1.75m over 3 years but they get a much larger cap hit and a pick.
If they're going to keep paying him (which is required to get the cap hit), they'd also have to devote a roster spot to him.

And if the Canucks are paying half the salary they're also forced to keep half his cap hit making the effect almost indistinguishable from just accepting the penalty.


Quote:
As far as LTIR goes, our medical staff has found some very convenient reasons for guys to dissapear up until the playoffs started. You really think it would be that hard to find a reason why a 39 year old goaltender couldn't play anymore?
Keeping a healthy guy on LTIR is a wholly different matter than getting a healthy guy on LTIR. There's no requirement to activate a healthy player (which is what the Canucks exploited a couple of times) but there is a very rigorous standard for getting a player on LTIR. Every single player they've put on LTIR was clearly and legitimately injured.

Even Malhotra never went on LTIR, likely because they couldn't prove he was unfit to play.

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