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Did Trevor Timmins learn from his mistakes?

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Old
06-06-2013, 12:32 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Habsterix View Post
What you don't seem to get since the beginning is that it's not as much diminishing the risk by giving more time to evaluate, as you draft them at the same age. It's the balance between CHL players and College players with that those 2+ years allow to account for the 50+ contract. In other words, the Habs hold the rights for those College players without having to sign them so soon to a contract, having to make difficult decisions too soon. It allows the team to have more prospects at a time that way.

Here's an easy way for you to better understand what we're trying to explain... If the Habs have 23 players under contract in the NHL, and another 27 with the Bulldogs and in the ECHL, some coming from the CHL... they can still hold the rights to not only the players they've drafted in the CHL, but those older ones still in College... for 2+ more years without counting against the 50 contracts!
Yes, you are right, I didn't mention that. "Nevertheless at the end on the day, the goal is to select the best player and I don't think that this futile technicality really make any difference when drafting a prospect. And, if it has made a difference, I believe it was a mistake, particularly if you compare our list of CHLers and NCAA players we have drafted in the later rounds."

Having more CHLers and less NCAA players and having to choose between our best CHLers instead wouldn't have been an issue for me.

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06-06-2013, 12:36 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Runner77 View Post
Thanks. I enjoy reading Grant here and I'm sure he's also made recommendations that panned out. Has Grant ever discussed his position, here? Just shows you how tough and unforgiving the evaluation process can be.
Just to clarify, Grant wasn't the scout who recommended Fischer (according to his post anyway). Andy was just attributing the quoted post to Grant.

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06-06-2013, 12:37 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Grant McCagg


There's your clue.
I'm pretty sure Berglund is our only American scout that's still with us from back then. Dave Mayville was our other American scout back then.

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06-06-2013, 12:39 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Ezpz View Post
I'm pretty sure Berglund is our only American scout that's still with us from back then. Dave Mayville was our other American scout back then.
I meant the quote was from McCagg, I edited the post so there isn't any more confusion. Sorry guys.

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06-06-2013, 12:42 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by HabsProspectsExpert View Post
Yes good point. But finally, no very late round picks work out for Timmins in that matter. I personally think that 3rd-5th rounds should be CHL players, you can still have 1 point per game players at this stage. And in the 6th-7th rounds you should try for European players and/or goalie. Many goalies have been taken in the very late rounds (Halak, Lindback, Rinne, Etc)
That seems rather arbitrary. The players available in any given year from the CHL, USHL, NCAA, or Europe are not the same as those in the preceding year or the following year. As for the goaltenders you name, I'd put it down as pure luck. Going back, you'd find a long list of others who weren't remotely good enough to play in the NHL.

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06-06-2013, 12:53 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Just to clarify, Grant wasn't the scout who recommended Fischer (according to his post anyway). Andy was just attributing the quoted post to Grant.
Thanks for that.

The quote attributed to Grant says that the scout is still in the Habs employ, but we don't know who he is.

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06-06-2013, 12:57 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by montreal View Post
What i'm saying is, that it's up to the GM on how much stock he wants to put into his head scouts opinions and that there's no cut and dry answer that every GM will do things their own way. Some may want to be in on every pick, but others know they don't have the time to scout a ton of players so after the early round picks they will leave it up to their scouts to make the correct call.

Ask yourself this, do you recall hearing a lot about Gainey scouting the CHL, NCAA/USHL, or Euro leagues? Not talking about the WJC's or development camps, or other big events that all management attends like Memorial Cup, etc... Everything i've heard is that Gainey was more inclined to go with what his scouts had to say. I've heard that PG was the opposite, that he was heavily involved in the draft.

Timmins was brought in by Savard after working with Savard, Timmins started right around the '02 draft so one would think that Timmins was highly thought of by Savard in regards to his opinions at the draft table. I do remember clearly right after the draft when Savard started talking about the Urquhart pick as he brought up the good playoffs he had with the rocket. So it sure sounded like Savard had a lot of say in the '03 draft.
I understand everything you said in Paragraph 1, but I have a hard time believing that more than a few NHL GMs don't give their final say on their top round draft choice, regardless of how much input from their scouting staff they take (Doug McLean with Zherdev or any other scenario).

As for Timmins,
Quote:
Trevor Timmins enters his 12th season with the Montreal Canadiens after joining the organization in 2002-03. He oversees the Canadiensí amateur scouting system, including the annual NHL Entry Draft and amateur free-agent recruitment. Trevor also supervises the Clubís amateur scouting staff, comprised of 14 amateur scouts covering Canada, the United States and Europe.
Trevor also oversees the annual NHL combine, as well as the Canadiensí own combine, a pre-draft player evaluation process which takes place at the Bell Sports Complex in Brossard every summer.
Bob Gainey joined May 2003, so yes Savard did bring him in but im not so sure if he was involved in the 2002 draft. I had thought his first draft with MTL was 2003.

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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Grant McCagg posts here quite a bit and used to scout for the Habs.
That name sounds quite familiar.

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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Yes - but he wasn't signed. That's the point. I think it was a foregone conclusion that he would sign with us for sure, but until his ink is on the paper, it's Max Lapierre as our best signed center. And let's face it, even if you considered Plekanec our #1 center at the time, that was no great shakes - he was coming off a 39 point season.
I don't see your point. Usually, the success rate of RFAs being re-signed is relatively high. So technically, Plekanec was our best centre heading into the off-season. The chances of him leaving are quite slim.

If it's a foregone conclusion, then why does it matter if ink is signed or not. Technicality?

Lol "no great shakes", in the 4 full seasons with MTL before he was an RFA, he had:

29 in 67, 47 in 81, 69 in 81, and then 39 in 80. I think 2007-08 is a great shake...

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06-06-2013, 01:03 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by dmanfish90 View Post
I don't see your point. Usually, the success rate of RFAs being re-signed is relatively high. So technically, Plekanec was our best centre heading into the off-season. The chances of him leaving are quite slim.

If it's a foregone conclusion, then why does it matter if ink is signed or not. Technicality?

Lol "no great shakes", in the 4 full seasons with MTL before he was an RFA, he had:

29 in 67, 47 in 81, 69 in 81, and then 39 in 80. I think 2007-08 is a great shake...
I don't think you're looking at this from the point of view of a prospective UFA winger who can play in any city he wants. You consider your options and Montreal comes up. You look at their roster to see who you're playing with - an unsigned Tomas Plekanec coming off a 39 point year, and Max Lapierre and his 28 point year. How excited are you? The fact that the answer is "not very" is a big reason why, in my opinion, Gainey felt pressure to get some kind of big name to fill out the centre depth before free agency.

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06-06-2013, 01:10 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
I don't think you're looking at this from the point of view of a prospective UFA winger who can play in any city he wants. You consider your options and Montreal comes up. You look at their roster to see who you're playing with - an unsigned Tomas Plekanec coming off a 39 point year, and Max Lapierre and his 28 point year. How excited are you? The fact that the answer is "not very" is a big reason why, in my opinion, Gainey felt pressure to get some kind of big name to fill out the centre depth before free agency.
Now this makes sense. Pleks was a ? for sure. There was definitely pressure to make a move to get a Top 6 centre. He failed months before to get Vinny, and then NYR uses that against us to get McD in the trade.

As I said earlier, I think going after Gomer was a hope that it would in turn, entice Gionta to come as well, which I think it did.

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06-06-2013, 01:33 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
I don't think you're looking at this from the point of view of a prospective UFA winger who can play in any city he wants. You consider your options and Montreal comes up. You look at their roster to see who you're playing with - an unsigned Tomas Plekanec coming off a 39 point year, and Max Lapierre and his 28 point year. How excited are you? The fact that the answer is "not very" is a big reason why, in my opinion, Gainey felt pressure to get some kind of big name to fill out the centre depth before free agency.
This was all about desperation. BG had been at the healm for years and the team was a bust so BG decided he had to blow the team up asap and do a hope and prayer. What I am quoting is very likely what happened, BG wanted to get a sniper in and to get the sniper to sign, the sniper would want to have a centre who could be a top notch playmaker ( especially if the sniper was young enough for another contract ). BG had tried getting the ...big centre.., but couldn't, he settled for Gomez and added to our history of mega-blunder trades.

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06-06-2013, 02:05 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by dmanfish90 View Post
I understand everything you said in Paragraph 1, but I have a hard time believing that more than a few NHL GMs don't give their final say on their top round draft choice, regardless of how much input from their scouting staff they take (Doug McLean with Zherdev or any other scenario).

As for Timmins,

Bob Gainey joined May 2003, so yes Savard did bring him in but im not so sure if he was involved in the 2002 draft. I had thought his first draft with MTL was 2003.
I never said that GM's don't give their final say on their 1st round draft picks, since I said
Quote:
Some may want to be in on every pick, but others know they don't have the time to scout a ton of players so after the early round picks they will leave it up to their scouts to make the correct call
I would think just about every GM would have some sort of say in regards to the 1st round pick, what i'm talking about is after that.

I also didn't say Timmins was involved in the '02 draft, I said he was brought in around the '02 draft (I want to say right before), sorry if that wasn't clear. So since Gainey wasn't really in charge of the draft in '03, and Savard was, my point was that Savard would know Timmins well after having worked with him in Ottawa and the last year with the Habs so that I'm sure Savard trusted Timmins fully.

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06-06-2013, 03:18 PM
  #87
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LOL - I never recommended Fischer. I wasn't on the staff at the time. It was Pat Westrum.

First of all - who has the audacity to take the user name "Habs prospect expert" in the first place? That made me chuckle, as did the "expert's" response to being asked to produce a top 210 list...saying he wouldn't have time. Between the hours spent researching and starting this thread..and the long winded responses to pretty much every post in this thread.....I figure HPE could have produced several draft lists for us to critique. :-) You have the guts to call yourself THE Habs prospect expert and come on here and post a thread concerning Timmins' mistakes and then of course offer the solutions as only an expert could..then you should walk the walk.

Let's see your rankings. Obviously you have time...

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06-06-2013, 04:16 PM
  #88
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I have a genuine question for you Mr. McCagg. On average, how many times do you need to see a player to decide whether or not he is worth drafting ?

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06-06-2013, 05:30 PM
  #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
LOL - I never recommended Fischer. I wasn't on the staff at the time. It was Pat Westrum.

First of all - who has the audacity to take the user name "Habs prospect expert" in the first place? That made me chuckle, as did the "expert's" response to being asked to produce a top 210 list...saying he wouldn't have time. Between the hours spent researching and starting this thread..and the long winded responses to pretty much every post in this thread.....I figure HPE could have produced several draft lists for us to critique. :-) You have the guts to call yourself THE Habs prospect expert and come on here and post a thread concerning Timmins' mistakes and then of course offer the solutions as only an expert could..then you should walk the walk.

Let's see your rankings. Obviously you have time...
Thanks for the clarification Grant, I found a very appropriate GIF to represent the back and forth between you and HPE.



yeah you can figure out whos who in this one

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06-06-2013, 05:45 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Yarfangor View Post
Thanks for the clarification Grant, I found a very appropriate GIF to represent the back and forth between you and HPE.



yeah you can figure out whos who in this one
I enjoyed it, too. Right up there with Bobby Mac coming onto HF and calling someone an assclown.

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06-06-2013, 06:25 PM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
First of all - who has the audacity to take the user name "Habs prospect expert" in the first place? That made me chuckle, as did the "expert's" response to being asked to produce a top 210 list...saying he wouldn't have time. Between the hours spent researching and starting this thread..and the long winded responses to pretty much every post in this thread.....I figure HPE could have produced several draft lists for us to critique. :-) You have the guts to call yourself THE Habs prospect expert and come on here and post a thread concerning Timmins' mistakes and then of course offer the solutions as only an expert could..then you should walk the walk.

Let's see your rankings. Obviously you have time...
First thing first, my name was pretty much for fun. I don't understand why you take it so seriously..? My main interest on HFBoards is discussing about the "HabsProspects" --- that name was already taken, so I decided to add the word expert for fun. I am sorry if you feel offended about that.
I am also sorry if I am disappointing you, but I found doing the list of 210 prospects really too long(if I want to do it properly), however I proposed a shorter way of doing it.
Anyway, you seem to know more than me about my free time... However, I am only posting an average of 1 message per day and this is the maximal amount of time I have to spare on this forum.
I never considered myself as an "expert" in the way you are saying it, but I know my fair share about hockey and I just want to share my opinion on certain topic like this one.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Yarfangor View Post
Thanks for the clarification Grant, I found a very appropriate GIF to represent the back and forth between you and HPE.
I don't understand why you are saying "back and forth" it is the first time he is sending a post directed to me. However, I found your picture well suited for the situation. His aggressif tone represent well the punch and effectively, it is coming out of nowhere. And I am not interested to enter in a fight with him.


Last edited by HabsProspectsExpert: 06-06-2013 at 10:50 PM.
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06-08-2013, 02:06 PM
  #92
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Frankly that sounds like a story concocted by Habs fans to create a potential scenario where we wouldn't have gotten bent over the table in that deal. Not saying it's impossible, but I'll remain skeptical until a reputable source comes out with it.

Whatever the case, I would have loved to be a fly on the wall in the Habs front office when that deal was hashed out. Hopefully someday we get the truth from either side because it's still a trade that made no rational sense, either back then or in hindsight.
I have no print media to link to if that's what you are looking for. I remember hearing a talking head like Pierre, Bob or Darren saying this a few days after the trade was made. At the time though, reports from the minors was that McDonaugh was not progressing as quickly as they had hoped and feared he could bust so being the short sighted manager Gainey was he threw him into the trade mix to save his arse. Gainey was lost after his daughter passed suddenly. I don't blame him as it was a difficult situation for everyone.

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06-09-2013, 03:59 AM
  #93
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Frankly that sounds like a story concocted by Habs fans to create a potential scenario where we wouldn't have gotten bent over the table in that deal. Not saying it's impossible, but I'll remain skeptical until a reputable source comes out with it.

Whatever the case, I would have loved to be a fly on the wall in the Habs front office when that deal was hashed out. Hopefully someday we get the truth from either side because it's still a trade that made no rational sense, either back then or in hindsight.
There's no possible way Fischer could have been an option. He was such a bum nobody would ever choose him. Maybe the option was Valantenko or Fischer, that makes more sense.

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06-09-2013, 09:02 AM
  #94
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The Fischer mistake was due to putting too much need on drafting defensemen. At the time our defense was thin and we had little in the pipeline. It wasn't really draft best player available, more like draft best defenseman available.

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06-09-2013, 10:24 AM
  #95
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I think what your numbers really show is the astonishing hit/miss ratio TT has managed to achieve in the later rounds.
I certainly hope he keeps doing them said mistakes if it yields these kind of results.

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07-03-2013, 04:02 AM
  #96
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For the second consecutive year, no college leagues player (NCAA, USHL, BCHL and comparable leagues) drafted in the 3rd to 7th round, after 5 consecutive years of drafting at least one. Coincidence?

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07-03-2013, 04:09 AM
  #97
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For the second consecutive year, no college leagues player (NCAA, USHL, BCHL and comparable leagues) drafted in the 3rd to 7th round, after 5 consecutive years of drafting at least one. Coincidence?
Whatever helps you bump your crappy thread.

But yes, I would put very good money on coincidence. Give me a break. Yeesh.

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07-03-2013, 04:51 AM
  #98
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Well instead of posting a list of 210 picks, some could just put a list of players they would have taken (among the picks that were drafted later).
But you must assume that the player you did not pick is gone when the next pick available.

For example, you can flip McCarron for Hartman but you can not later pick McCarron at 34 because you must assume he would be gone.
Note that this can only be done after the draft as we don't know the trades before.

And then we can revisit after every draft.

As for me, I will stick with TT's list. I am sure I will be better than most.

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07-03-2013, 04:58 AM
  #99
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There's no way. Wasn't PG and A GM with BG?
As for 2003-2010, BG probably had more of a push for CP31 in 2005, AK46 most likely in 2003 and in 2006 BG probably pushed for a defenseman who wasn't the BPA. 2007 was gold in McD, Patches, and Subban in the 2nd round which, IMO i think was all TT probably after telling Gainey "we did it your way before, let me have at it now, i'll get you some great talent." Lo behold, he has a top 4 defenseman, a top 6 power forward, and a top 5 NHL defenseman from those first 2 rounds.

TT FOR GM!
So basically every screw up is someone else's fault and every success is all Timmins? Timmins is very good at his job but lol... it's a hit and miss business. He's got a lot of misses, like everyone but he's hit about as much as anyone since he's been in the job. Can't complain.

Kostitsyn was a great pick and Gainey had JUST arrived by the time of the draft, Kostitsyn didn't pan out as some expected and many guys behind him did but the methodology was sound. Top 3 talent, slipping for medical reasons and we thought we'd have them under control (which we did).

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07-03-2013, 04:59 AM
  #100
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Whatever helps you bump your crappy thread.

But yes, I would put very good money on coincidence. Give me a break. Yeesh.
Haha! I was expecting that kind of easy reply.. The things is, we were drafting more college leagues players in the later rounds in the last 8 years on average; was this a coincidence, I doubt it. Does Timins understood something that the other scouts didn't understood or was it him that was mistaken?

I doubt that this sudden change of attitude in the last two years is only a coincidence, especially that we now know how his college leagues players versus none college leagues players are looking so far.

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