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The Luongo Thread: Part LXMIV - Cant stop. Wont stop.

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07-03-2013, 09:32 AM
  #351
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As of this morning, his penthouse is still for sale. Interesting. I realize this could be purely an investment deal, but this prolonged silence is kinda strange.

He must be PISSED!

At first I thought he'd come back and have a banner year under Torts, maybe even contend for a Vezina. But now I'm wondering how difficult it's going to be for him to adjust his mindset and wrap his head around staying.

Yes, he's getting paid huge bucks, but this isn't about money right now.

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07-03-2013, 09:33 AM
  #352
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The one thing that bugs me more than anything else is that the ****ing NHL,approved Lou's contract and then turned around and changed the rules to punish teams that signed players like this.

The rule change destroyed the market for Luongo.

Gillis tried to bluff his way through it and was left with egg on hIs face.

As Jack Tripper stated, he was lucky to be able to turn the situation into a 9th round pick.

As for Roberto, he is now officially untradeable.

So he either sucks it up and plays his heart out and proves all the doubters wrong or he craps the bed and destroys his own legacy.

The choce is pretty clear and I think it will be an easy choice for him to make.
Wouldnt say hes untradable. But near enough as you can be.

Thing is the league isn't actually punishing the contracts it appears but they've taken away the "outlets" if you will.

Basically they are saying "cool, you signed Player X to play for 12 years until hes 43, hes gonna play for you until then."

As long as Lu and the nucks fulfill the contract theres no issue.

But lets be honest these contracts were well on the radar of the NHL and they should have been. We all know they wink wink nudge nudge that went on. Cant prove it and neither can the NHL so they took the only means they could. Punish the options.

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07-03-2013, 09:35 AM
  #353
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Originally Posted by ddawg1950 View Post
As for Roberto, he is now officially untradeable.

So he either sucks it up and plays his heart out and proves all the doubters wrong or he craps the bed and destroys his own legacy.

The choce is pretty clear and I think it will be an easy choice for him to make.

I think he'll play. He's too smart not to.

However, I'm not sure he's "untradeable". Or more importantly, "unmovable". They still haven't explored all their options on that front. Namely, taking on buyouts to push the deal through, or waiving him.


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Agreed.

What I find totally amazing though is how little tender command in trades but how much they get thrown at them in salary.

Someone needs to do an analysis of trade value vs salary value for different position. Im totally curious.

There's actually this analysis out there, or something akin to it. I remember reading it. Perhaps NHLNumbers, but I forget where. It basically stated that goaltending is only relevant when you don't have a competent level of it. As in, teams only notice differences when the goaltending is below par. At par, however, the differences are largely marginal. Only that elite players have a better year to year consistency. In short samples, however, there's not a lot to choose from.

The article also places a dollar value, as a percentage of the cap, that should be allocated to the differences in wins a goaltender represents. I'll look for it and post it if I find it.

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07-03-2013, 10:00 AM
  #354
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I have a better idea - let's not do that, because there is no way in hell the cap is going to be $150M in 10 years.
And if it doesn't then Lu is even more untradeable because the cap penalty hit as % of salary cap is even higher.

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07-03-2013, 10:08 AM
  #355
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Originally Posted by ddawg1950 View Post
The one thing that bugs me more than anything else is that the ****ing NHL,approved Lou's contract and then turned around and changed the rules to punish teams that signed players like this.

The rule change destroyed the market for Luongo.

Gillis tried to bluff his way through it and was left with egg on hIs face.

As Jack Tripper stated, he was lucky to be able to turn the situation into a 9th round pick.

As for Roberto, he is now officially untradeable.

So he either sucks it up and plays his heart out and proves all the doubters wrong or he craps the bed and destroys his own legacy.

The choce is pretty clear and I think it will be an easy choice for him to make.
Ya this is what really bugs me about the whole situation as well. It is completley ridiculous for a contract signed under the old CBA to be punished under the new one. This is just not how business works and hard not to feel jilted as a Canucks fan. The "Luongo Rule" cost us a better, cheaper, and younger goaltender. It's completley unfair.

Once that happened and Luongo turned down the Leafs, there wasn't much Gillis could do but ride this out. It got to the end and there was only one choice. Nobody wants Luongo. We're stuck with him and have to watch a better goalie walk away. Beyond frustrating as a Canucks fan.

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07-03-2013, 10:47 AM
  #356
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I have a better idea - let's not do that, because there is no way in hell the cap is going to be $150M in 10 years.
Of course not; the 2019 Lockout is going to knock the cap ceiling down a bit.

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07-03-2013, 11:09 AM
  #357
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Given Rask's new deal ( rumored to be at 7 mill per), you have to imagine that when Corey's current contract is up, with a bigger cap, his salary will be somewhere in that ballpark as well.

The one plus of all of this is Lu's 5.3 is incredibly affordable. Both when the deal was signed and going forward into the future.

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07-03-2013, 11:23 AM
  #358
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I'm not sure I agree Eye. It's clear that many NHL clubs have thought less and less about goaltending on the whole. I don't think the team needs the best tandem, or even elite goaltending for that matter. They just need competent to good goaltending. Then, they can put the remaining money up front.

This situation was a teaching tool. No one values goaltending. At least, not to the level it should be valued across the league. For example, if we were to compare Schneider to another good young player like Sam Gagner, one would have to believe Gagner would get more on the open market, simply by being a skater. He's not even a 1C, as most believe Schneider is a 1G, but he would garner more. That's the reality of picking, developing and moving goaltending. Given the chance, many managers would opt to go with a cheaper solution than to pay for an elite starter.

So why do we value Luongo much anymore? Why not go with the DET/CHI model and devalue it altogether? Adding more skaters to make the team better up front... It just doesn't seem like the differences in goaltending are all that significant anymore. Not to the extent of giving value for elite goalies anyways.
Definitely could be... Was in full on rant mode last night! Maybe I'm just conditioned to think that the better goaltender you have, the better... and in terms of cap hit, both Schneider and Luongo are both not taking an extraordinary amount... But analysis could show it's not the end of the world (or even better in terms of winning) with simply "good enough" goaltending... if the team around is built stronger...

But to go from such a position of strength to a position of weakness, I don't know if that was in the plans... Apparently both Aquillini and Gillis flew to Florida... If Gillis didn't want Lu back, seeing what I saw last weekend, I'd imagine he stayed home and write Lu an email... "It wasn't my intent for you to feel this way"... About what can be reasonably expected in terms of an email apology, from a ruthless man who feels like he made the right, difficult decision... no trip to Florida necessary, if Luongo being on board or not is not a big deal...

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07-03-2013, 11:24 AM
  #359
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Leaving a gaping loophole in the previous CBA and then turning around and saying, "Yeahhhhh, these contracts we approved are now a you problem" seems like the kind of shenanigans that the league office approves of. Heck, we know the love to arbitrarily change the rules depending on what period it is during a game.

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07-03-2013, 11:37 AM
  #360
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07-03-2013, 11:40 AM
  #361
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
I'm not sure I agree Eye. It's clear that many NHL clubs have thought less and less about goaltending on the whole. I don't think the team needs the best tandem, or even elite goaltending for that matter. They just need competent to good goaltending. Then, they can put the remaining money up front.

This situation was a teaching tool. No one values goaltending. At least, not to the level it should be valued across the league. For example, if we were to compare Schneider to another good young player like Sam Gagner, one would have to believe Gagner would get more on the open market, simply by being a skater. He's not even a 1C, as most believe Schneider is a 1G, but he would garner more. That's the reality of picking, developing and moving goaltending. Given the chance, many managers would opt to go with a cheaper solution than to pay for an elite starter.

So why do we value Luongo much anymore? Why not go with the DET/CHI model and devalue it altogether? Adding more skaters to make the team better up front... It just doesn't seem like the differences in goaltending are all that significant anymore. Not to the extent of giving value for elite goalies anyways.
Yeah, I strongly disagree. There's a vast difference between winning with average goaltending and winning with a seemingly average starter who performs extremely well. Over the regular season and the playoffs Crawford put up a .929 sv% over nearly 1500 shots; you can't reasonably say that he was merely "competent".

Cheaping out on goaltending to spend money up front doesn't get you Chicago; 9 times out of 10 it gets you Tampa or Philadelphia.

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07-03-2013, 11:43 AM
  #362
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If they're going to keep paying him (which is required to get the cap hit), they'd also have to devote a roster spot to him.

And if the Canucks are paying half the salary they're also forced to keep half his cap hit making the effect almost indistinguishable from just accepting the penalty.




Keeping a healthy guy on LTIR is a wholly different matter than getting a healthy guy on LTIR. There's no requirement to activate a healthy player (which is what the Canucks exploited a couple of times) but there is a very rigorous standard for getting a player on LTIR. Every single player they've put on LTIR was clearly and legitimately injured.

Even Malhotra never went on LTIR, likely because they couldn't prove he was unfit to play.
Yeah, that's what I was wondering. I do kind of have this expectation that at some point Fehr will make some kind of nuisance about this, but he'll probably wait until as many players get buyouts as possible. It might lower the escrow pool moving forward, but it still creates a free agent market and drives up contract values overall. Now every GM that missed out on Lecavalier likely feels like they should give a similar contract to Iginla or whathaveyou.

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07-03-2013, 11:49 AM
  #363
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The first year out of the previous lockout, there were four goalies who hit 0.920.

This past season there were 17.

When we got Luongo, 0.920 was elite...now it's average.

 
Old
07-03-2013, 11:49 AM
  #364
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Yeah, I strongly disagree. There's a vast difference between winning with average goaltending and winning with a seemingly average starter who performs extremely well. Over the regular season and the playoffs Crawford put up a .929 sv% over nearly 1500 shots; you can't reasonably say that he was merely "competent".

Cheaping out on goaltending to spend money up front doesn't get you Chicago; 9 times out of 10 it gets you Tampa or Philadelphia.
Exactly. Over a 60 game regular season for a starter, you're probably looking at around 1500 shots at ES. The difference between a 929 ES goaltender and a 919 ES goaltender is about 15 goals at ES. That's probably 3-4 wins, which is the same value as you'll get from a very good/elite forward. Even Crosby is probably only worth 5-6 on his own.

The only real question at this point is whether there's any ability for a team to tailor playstyle to a goaltender, which is totally unquantifiable as far as I know (at least for the published numbers we see). But there are teams that look at shot location, so it wouldn't surprise me if this is a thing that's happening behind the scenes. Like, if you have a goaltender that's weak on second saves or gives up more rebounds on the whole, you play your defense to collapse and clear loose pucks.

Regardless of how you get there, I think having that goaltending is important. The only way an average goaltender would be useful is if you paid him like 950k a year -- someone like Ericsson -- and were able to spend another 5-6 million on a 3-4 win player. That seems possible I guess.

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07-03-2013, 11:51 AM
  #365
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Yeah, I strongly disagree. There's a vast difference between winning with average goaltending and winning with a seemingly average starter who performs extremely well. Over the regular season and the playoffs Crawford put up a .929 sv% over nearly 1500 shots; you can't reasonably say that he was merely "competent".

Cheaping out on goaltending to spend money up front doesn't get you Chicago; 9 times out of 10 it gets you Tampa or Philadelphia.
1500 shots is not enough to evaluate a goaltender, you need about double that as a strong basis.

Crawford is a below average goalie who had a good 48 games and playoffs. His other career numbers support this.

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07-03-2013, 11:52 AM
  #366
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Leaving a gaping loophole in the previous CBA and then turning around and saying, "Yeahhhhh, these contracts we approved are now a you problem" seems like the kind of shenanigans that the league office approves of. Heck, we know the love to arbitrarily change the rules depending on what period it is during a game.
But that isnt what happened as far as I know.

They close the loophole with term limits on contracts, year to year difference in salary etc

What they did do is take the benefits of those contracts away. Essentially as long as Lu lives up to the contract and the nuck do to there is no problem.

The issue is these guys never intended to do that. The league fired a shot across the bow. In 2009.

They gambled anyways and lost.

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07-03-2013, 11:55 AM
  #367
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What they did do is take the benefits of those contracts away. Essentially as long as Lu lives up to the contract and the nuck do to there is no problem.
You are correct. No penalty if the contract is actually played out.

The provision is only an issue if the contract was intended to circumvent the cap.

 
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07-03-2013, 11:57 AM
  #368
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Definitely could be... Was in full on rant mode last night! Maybe I'm just conditioned to think that the better goaltender you have, the better... and in terms of cap hit, both Schneider and Luongo are both not taking an extraordinary amount... But analysis could show it's not the end of the world (or even better in terms of winning) with simply "good enough" goaltending... if the team around is built stronger...

But to go from such a position of strength to a position of weakness, I don't know if that was in the plans... Apparently both Aquillini and Gillis flew to Florida... If Gillis didn't want Lu back, seeing what I saw last weekend, I'd imagine he stayed home and write Lu an email... "It wasn't my intent for you to feel this way"... About what can be reasonably expected in terms of an email apology, from a ruthless man who feels like he made the right, difficult decision... no trip to Florida necessary, if Luongo being on board or not is not a big deal...
He has to mend fences to make Luongo a going concern here again. In the immediate future, that's his only play. Once that's established, and his contributing to the team, they can still keep watch of a potential move.

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Yeah, I strongly disagree. There's a vast difference between winning with average goaltending and winning with a seemingly average starter who performs extremely well. Over the regular season and the playoffs Crawford put up a .929 sv% over nearly 1500 shots; you can't reasonably say that he was merely "competent".

Cheaping out on goaltending to spend money up front doesn't get you Chicago; 9 times out of 10 it gets you Tampa or Philadelphia.

The seemingly average starter is what I'm referring to. Crawford for the larger parts of his career was viewed as merely competent. However, in a short sample, he performed at a high rate. This would be no different. The point is that the move away from the elite, heavily priced goalie, could pay more dividends for the rest of the roster. It's not a requirement.

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07-03-2013, 12:02 PM
  #369
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He has to mend fences to make Luongo a going concern here again. In the immediate future, that's his only play. Once that's established, and his contributing to the team, they can still keep watch of a potential move.




The seemingly average starter is what I'm referring to. Crawford for the larger parts of his career was viewed as merely competent. However, in a short sample, he performed at a high rate. This would be no different. The point is that the move away from the elite, heavily priced goalie, could pay more dividends for the rest of the roster. It's not a requirement.
What about the move away from 2 elite, heavily priced goalies?

:Sarcasm:

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07-03-2013, 12:04 PM
  #370
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What about the move away from 2 elite, heavily priced goalies?
Luongo, while still quality, is no longer elite, so that move is complete.

 
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07-03-2013, 12:05 PM
  #371
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Exactly. Over a 60 game regular season for a starter, you're probably looking at around 1500 shots at ES. The difference between a 929 ES goaltender and a 919 ES goaltender is about 15 goals at ES. That's probably 3-4 wins, which is the same value as you'll get from a very good/elite forward. Even Crosby is probably only worth 5-6 on his own.

The only real question at this point is whether there's any ability for a team to tailor playstyle to a goaltender, which is totally unquantifiable as far as I know (at least for the published numbers we see). But there are teams that look at shot location, so it wouldn't surprise me if this is a thing that's happening behind the scenes. Like, if you have a goaltender that's weak on second saves or gives up more rebounds on the whole, you play your defense to collapse and clear loose pucks.

Regardless of how you get there, I think having that goaltending is important. The only way an average goaltender would be useful is if you paid him like 950k a year -- someone like Ericsson -- and were able to spend another 5-6 million on a 3-4 win player. That seems possible I guess.

That's the idea. Spend that money elsewhere to get the same overall benefit. Only now, the value of said player is clearly higher than the equivalent value in net. Further, that 3-4 win doesn't have the age/mental concerns we know Luongo will have.

As far as the math goes, I have seen and have looked into exactly this difference in sv% vs goals allowed resulting in W/L. I understand the logic. I just don't think it's that important anymore given the competence of goaltenders, on average, around the league. If one could pull a Thomas off the scrap heap, and he ends up giving said team a .920 sv%, then they are benefitted by being able to spend the money elsewhere. Who knows? Maybe you only get a 1-2 game drop from the switch from elite to good, but then make up an even greater difference with the better forward you are able to add? The net gain may be 3-4 games of improvement overall.

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07-03-2013, 12:06 PM
  #372
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Luongo is no longer elite, so that move is complete.
I disagree with your assessment of Luongo. He will prove once again this year that he's still elite.

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07-03-2013, 12:06 PM
  #373
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Luongo is no longer elite, so that move is complete.
He's elite at ES, closing in on a .930 sv%. His PK work could be better though.

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07-03-2013, 12:07 PM
  #374
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I disagree with your assessment of Luongo. He will prove once again this year that he's still elite.
Time will tell.

I don't think he's crap, by any stretch of the imagination, but he's no longer a top-5 goalie IMO.

 
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07-03-2013, 12:11 PM
  #375
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He's elite at ES, closing in on a .930 sv%. His PK work could be better though.
Luongo put up a 0.920 at ES this past season. If you're going to play statistical hanky panky, you have to do it for all players if you want to make comparisons. Even if he had hit 0.930 at ES, that is no longer elite. The league had three regulars this past season put up 0.940 or above, and another five at 0.935 or higher.

The bar has been raised.

He's still a quality starter, and consistency is worth paying for. Assuming his head will be in the game after what's happened, the team's problems won't be in net, IMO.

 
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