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Stu. Is it time to drop the Magnificent?

View Poll Results: What say Stu?
Magnificent ******* 15 10.95%
Insignificant ******* 43 31.39%
******* 14 10.22%
Too soon to say 65 47.45%
Voters: 137. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-03-2013, 12:10 PM
  #176
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Originally Posted by KlimasLoveChild View Post
This just in...MacT to fire entire scouting staff in favor or using HF rankings and suggestions from posters....
Might not be a bad idea considering their record both in the standings and outside the first round of the draft.

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07-03-2013, 12:18 PM
  #177
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I don't think Amateur scouting is the problem. We could probably use a few more scouts for the OHL/QMJHL since we seem to be picking a disproportionate amount of players in the WHL, but overall we're a pretty average team.

Now pro scouting on the other hand... just what the ****. It's astounding that guys like Whitney/Teubert/Belanger/Fraser have been recommended by this staff.

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07-03-2013, 12:44 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
The Montreal Canadiens have 14, 15 if you include head scout Trevor Timmins.

The Leafs have 13 and then 5 European scouts (unclear if they are pro or amateur).

We have nine. Including Europe and including Stu.

You can find this info on the team's web pages linked from NHL.com, but the Oilers give no info on their scouting staff on their page.
Hmmmm, could that be why Montreal owns draft after draft? While we can't make a pick to save our lives beyond the top 10?

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07-03-2013, 12:44 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by Trafalgar Law View Post
I don't think Amateur scouting is the problem. We could probably use a few more scouts for the OHL/QMJHL since we seem to be picking a disproportionate amount of players in the WHL, but overall we're a pretty average team.

Now pro scouting on the other hand... just what the ****. It's astounding that guys like Whitney/Teubert/Belanger/Fraser have been recommended by this staff.
Jeff Petry being the only guy picked after the first round in ten years that has turned into anything is average?

I dont think so.

Its a massive problem.

Stu has been an amateur scout with the Oilers since 2000.

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07-03-2013, 01:05 PM
  #180
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Jeff Petry being the only guy picked after the first round in ten years that has turned into anything is average?

I dont think so.

Its a massive problem.

Stu has been an amateur scout with the Oilers since 2000.
Is it scouting or player development though? or is is a bit of both!

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07-03-2013, 02:14 PM
  #181
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Is it scouting or player development though? or is is a bit of both!
Maybe both, but Katz/Oilers just put a bunch of money into development, hiring Sillinger, Rick Carriere, Steve Serdachny and putting money into the Barons and whatnot.

But it doesnt look like theyve put a dime into scouting. Theyre still carrying guys theyve had for ten years or more with little or no results outside the first round.

I find what they did at this draft completely baffling. That has nothing to do with development. Last year was puzzling as well. Both years after the first round it was head scratching time.

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07-03-2013, 03:39 PM
  #182
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Maybe both, but Katz/Oilers just put a bunch of money into development, hiring Sillinger, Rick Carriere, Steve Serdachny and putting money into the Barons and whatnot.

But it doesnt look like theyve put a dime into scouting. Theyre still carrying guys theyve had for ten years or more with little or no results outside the first round.

I find what they did at this draft completely baffling. That has nothing to do with development. Last year was puzzling as well. Both years after the first round it was head scratching time.
What do you think about the European scouts?

Do you think it would be sufficient to increase the number of scouts in OHL/Q?

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07-03-2013, 03:44 PM
  #183
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I read somewhere that a lot of teams have 3/4 head scouts. Maybe we should go out and grab 2 more.

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07-03-2013, 03:46 PM
  #184
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What do you think about the European scouts?

Do you think it would be sufficient to increase the number of scouts in OHL/Q?
I think they should probably double the size of the European scouting staff. Why not take advantage of every option available to you? Cheap one's at that? You pay players millions of dollars, coaches and gm's millions of dollars. Scouts get paid peanuts in comparison. Why not have as many as possible without getting too much white noise?

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07-03-2013, 03:53 PM
  #185
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Further to this discussion, has anyone read Future Greats and Heartbreaks by Gare Joyce?

He spent a year riding along with the CBJ scouts and then doing some of his own freelance stuff and wrote a book about it, pretty interesting read.

Just on the surface it seems that the Oilers draft a lot of players from lesser-than leagues with little to zero results. A lot of BCHL (overage) picks, a few high school/midget picks, etc. That being said, their CHL track record is equally as horrible so who knows (Abney, Blain, Hamilton, Plante, etc.).

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07-03-2013, 03:54 PM
  #186
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Originally Posted by Trafalgar Law View Post
I don't think Amateur scouting is the problem. We could probably use a few more scouts for the OHL/QMJHL since we seem to be picking a disproportionate amount of players in the WHL, but overall we're a pretty average team.

Now pro scouting on the other hand... just what the ****. It's astounding that guys like Whitney/Teubert/Belanger/Fraser have been recommended by this staff.
I don't know if I'd be all that mad.

Whitney hands were tied, and it wasn't really a scouting mistake as much as a health issue.

Belanger. Guy wasn't that bad until he got here.

Fraser, honestly there is nothing wrong with the guy. He fits the role he was suppose to do here perfectly in LA.

The real problem this team has is not having enough good players, thus putting more pressure on the depth guys.

Is a bit dissappointing that they could find some gems around the league, then again I don't think ST had the balls to pull the trigger either. I mean when you are using Smyth and Petrell in the same game as centers when Adam Hall and other are available for free, there is more to the issue then scouting.

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07-03-2013, 04:00 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
I think they should probably double the size of the European scouting staff. Why not take advantage of every option available to you? Cheap one's at that? You pay players millions of dollars, coaches and gm's millions of dollars. Scouts get paid peanuts in comparison. Why not have as many as possible without getting too much white noise?
Oh, I agree with you.

I would also love to see more "semi head" scouts - that scouted cross leauge.

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07-03-2013, 10:22 PM
  #188
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Originally Posted by Nail and Nuge View Post
Nice research. That is a stunning miss by McGregor.

Captain. Calder winner. Not a third liner Stu.
Not gonna defend Stu, because I'm currently waffling on how I think of him, but he was right on in the assessment in terms of style of play. Landeskog is a prototypical second line/third line tweener based on his playing style.

A true first liner is typically more skilled than hard work. Landeskog, above all, exemplifies hard work.

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07-03-2013, 10:40 PM
  #189
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Something tells me Marincin will be a very solid top 4 player for the Oilers in a few years.

I see something special in this guy.

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07-03-2013, 11:17 PM
  #190
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Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
You don't think adding a few more bodies would be a benefit?
At first I was thinking it would be a good idea. Then I was thinking it's just not about adding bodies they need to add quality bodies. Then the image of Cement head and bunch of other fat bodies popped into my head I just knew it would be more of the same. At this point I was wonder how the drafting would go if they did away with their scouting staff all together and took an average ranking on players from the various scouting services. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the results would improve, I'm thinking it would eliminate their "I'm the smartest guy in the rooom syndrome" selections such as Moroz. I was partly joking and partly serious with my last post.

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07-04-2013, 01:19 PM
  #191
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
I think they should probably double the size of the European scouting staff. Why not take advantage of every option available to you? Cheap one's at that? You pay players millions of dollars, coaches and gm's millions of dollars. Scouts get paid peanuts in comparison. Why not have as many as possible without getting too much white noise?
Thanks for the link IATL. Solid ideas to add more scouting staff.

I recall that Buffalo was turfing their scouting staff and going with scouting by video some years back. I wonder if they're still doing that or not.

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07-04-2013, 01:24 PM
  #192
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
Thanks for the link IATL. Solid ideas to add more scouting staff.

I recall that Buffalo was turfing their scouting staff and going with scouting by video some years back. I wonder if they're still doing that or not.
I doubt it with the new ownership. Website lists 10 amateur scouts, with an "amateur scouting director" overseeing things.

http://sabres.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=36588

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07-04-2013, 01:40 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Hockey Buddha View Post
Stu was hired as head scout in September 2007, so his first draft at the helm was in 2008. Here are his drafts since becoming head scout:

2008 round 1, 22 overall - Jordan Eberle C *solid pick
2008 round 4, 103 overall - Johan Motin D
2008 round 5, 133 overall - Philippe Cornet LW *solid pick
2008 round 6, 163 overall - Teemu Hartikainen LW *solid pick
2008 round 7, 193 overall - Jordan Bendfeld D
2008 imo is a hard draft to call, traded 2nd and 3rd round picks make it difficult to assess. It's a good draft year despite the limited number of picks, primarily for one simple reason: getting Eberle at 22nd was a complete win. Picking up Hartikainen in the 6th round was also a nice find. Cornet is talented but the NHL clock is winding down on him, solid AHL player, and he may have NHL potential somewhere, if not on the Oilers. Jordan Eberle makes this a draft win for Stu.
2009 round 1, 10 overall - Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson LW *solid pick
2009 round 2, 40 overall - Anton Lander C *solid pick
2009 round 3, 71 overall - Troy Hesketh D
2009 round 3, 82 overall - Cameron Abney RW
2009 round 4, 99 overall - Kyle Bigos D
2009 round 4, 101 overall - Toni Rajala RW *solid pick
2009 round 5, 133 overall - Olivier Roy G *solid pick
Mediocre draft overall (71, 82, and 99 were organizational need picks that haven't panned out). Paajarvi and Lander are likely to carve out NHL careers and Rajala and Roy could as well. Obviously, some attempt to fill organizational need with some size (Hesketh-Abney-Bigos) at the draft table that haven't gone as well as hoped. I haven't seen enough of Bigos, but foot speed is apparently an issue with him and possibly a barrier. Abney is tough as nails, but hasn't developed other aspects of his game much, and Hesketh is no longer with the organization. I love the Rajala and Roy picks in the late rounds though.
2010 round 1, 1 overall - Taylor Hall LW *solid pick
2010 round 2, 31 overall - Tyler Pitlick C *solid pick
2010 round 2, 46 overall - Martin Marincin D *solid pick
2010 round 2, 48 overall - Curtis Hamilton LW
2010 round 3, 61 overall - Ryan Martindale C
2010 round 4, 91 overall - Jeremie Blain D *solid pick
2010 round 5, 121 overall - Tyler Bunz G
2010 round 6, 162 overall - Brandon Davidson D *solid pick
2010 round 6, 166 overall - Drew Czerwonka LW
2010 round 7, 181 overall - Kristians Pelss LW *solid pick (R.I.P. Kristians)
2010 round 7, 202 overall - Kellen Jones F *solid pick
This draft is TBD at a later date. Hamilton-Martindale-Pitlick are the keys. One or more of those players needs to turn out as an NHLer. Of the three, to date, Pitlick holds the most promise. He is progressing well after some injury setbacks and is now tracking well, but each of these picks has struggled. Hamilton and Martindale still might turn it around, but they are both in need of huge seasons in the AHL next season. I'm routing for both these players in a big way. I was really excited by the Hamilton draft when it took place, and the Martindale pick seemed like a good gamble at the time. Bunz went into a tail spin this past season, but could still easily turn it around. Drew Czerwonka is no longer part of the organization's plans.
2011 round 1, 1 overall - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C *solid pick
2011 round 1, 19 overall - Oscar Klefbom D *solid pick
2011 round 2, 31 overall - David Musil D *solid pick
2011 round 3, 62 overall - Samu Perhonen G
2011 round 3, 74 overall - Travis Ewanyk C *solid pick
2011 round 4, 92 overall - Dillon Simpson RW *solid pick
2011 round 4, 114 overall - Tobias Rieder RW *solid pick
2011 round 5, 122 overall - Martin Gernat D *solid pick
2011 round 7, 182 overall - Frans Tuohimaa G *solid pick
Too early to make a call on this draft, but a lot of good things here. Musil has questionable foot speed, but his father had a solid NHL career with a similar issue, and my guess is that Musil the younger does the same. Ewanyk has sustained some injuries that have meddled with his development, but he's a player that just keeps coming and could fill a 3rd or 4th line role down the line for the Oil. Perhonen is no longer a part of the organization. This draft could see a number of players who become NHLers. I really liked this draft at the time and still do.
2012 round 1, 1 overall - Nail Yakupov RW *solid pick
2012 round 2, 32 overall - Mitchell Moroz LW * jury's out
2012 round 3, 63 overall - Jujhar Khaira LW *solid pick
2012 round 3, 91 overall - Daniil Zharkov LW *solid pick
2012 round 4, 93 overall - Erik Gustafsson D *solid pick
2012 round 5, 123 overall - Joey LaLeggia D *solid pick
2012 round 6, 153 overall - John McCarron RW *solid pick
Again, too early to assess this draft, but I was hoping for more offensively from Moroz this past season. Still he's a ****** to play against. He's a player that the Oilers really wanted badly, and he was selected higher than projected. We've been told repeatedly that he was on the radar of a few NHL teams and wouldn't have been available with the next Oiler's pick. He exemplifies an organizational need pick. I love the LaLeggia pick, and I believe that some day, despite his diminutive size, that he'll play somewhere in the NHL. McCarron is a tough winger, the kind of player the Oilers should be selecting in the later rounds imo.
Given that 63% of 1st rounders, 25% of 2nd rounders, and 12% of 3rd rounders and beyond become career NHLers (see here), I'd say Stu is faring well. He needs to steer clear of drafting for organizational need and draft BPA.
My projection for Stu's drafts:
1st rounders - success rate 100%
2nd rounder - success rate 50-66%
3rd rounders and beyond - success rate 18-27%
Why on earth are you calling some of these "solid picks"? In particular:
-Cornet is AHLer, not solid
-Lander may be good but the jury is still out
-Pitlick, not solid at all, looks like a bust
-Rajala and Roy, well, I guess they're fifth rounders so I guess the bar is set pretty low
-Blain, What? He wasn't even signed
-Kellen Jones, again, what? He'll never be in the NHL.
-2011 and 2012 too early to tell but you pretty much listed everyone as "solid" for some reason

Basically that leaves the first rounders (which, quite frankly, were pretty obvious - even Eberle - and probably could have been picked by putting a poll on this board), plus Hartikainen, Marincin, and a few somewhat-interesting late rounders.

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07-04-2013, 01:46 PM
  #194
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This team should have around 10 more scouts. It's not like their salary counts against the cap. Stu'd first draft was 2008? I think he's done pretty good in the last 6 drafts.

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07-04-2013, 02:02 PM
  #195
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This team should have around 10 more scouts. It's not like their salary counts against the cap. Stu'd first draft was 2008? I think he's done pretty good in the last 6 drafts.
He has been a scout with the Oilers since 2000.

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07-04-2013, 02:10 PM
  #196
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Stu's first draft was 2008.

It generally takes 5 years to determine if a player is an NHLer or not, and another 2-3 years after that to determine how good that player will be at the NHL level.

So far, Eberle has established himself as a legit NHL player, and Harti has had his cup of coffee and could being anything from a career minor-leaguer to a legit lunch-pail LW.

At this point in time, I give the 2008 draft a B+. I'll wait a year before passing judgement on the 2009 draft, but it's worth noting that both Paajarvi and Lander have already logged serious time at the NHL level (now, whether that's because they deserved it or because the team was horrible is another subject for debate). Hesketh, Abney and Bigos can pretty much already be declared busts, but it'll be interesting to see how Roy and Rajala develop over the course of the next year.

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07-04-2013, 02:18 PM
  #197
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Stu's first draft was 2008.

It generally takes 5 years to determine if a player is an NHLer or not, and another 2-3 years after that to determine how good that player will be at the NHL level.

So far, Eberle has established himself as a legit NHL player, and Harti has had his cup of coffee and could being anything from a career minor-leaguer to a legit lunch-pail LW.

At this point in time, I give the 2008 draft a B+. I'll wait a year before passing judgement on the 2009 draft, but it's worth noting that both Paajarvi and Lander have already logged serious time at the NHL level (now, whether that's because they deserved it or because the team was horrible is another subject for debate). Hesketh, Abney and Bigos can pretty much already be declared busts, but it'll be interesting to see how Roy and Rajala develop over the course of the next year.
He's been here since 2000, and a lot of the rest of the crew have been here around since around then too.

These guys didnt just plop down here in 2008. Theyve been our scouts for ten years or more in many cases.

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07-04-2013, 02:23 PM
  #198
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
He's been here since 2000, and a lot of the rest of the crew have been here around since around then too.

These guys didnt just plop down here in 2008. Theyve been our scouts for ten years or more in many cases.
+ 1 need to purge the system or at least some of it.

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07-04-2013, 02:56 PM
  #199
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
He's been here since 2000, and a lot of the rest of the crew have been here around since around then too.

These guys didnt just plop down here in 2008. Theyve been our scouts for ten years or more in many cases.
There's a big difference between being involved in the process and being the shot-caller.

I'm not saying Stu is the be-all and end-all, but judging his performance as the head of scouting is premature.

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07-04-2013, 03:11 PM
  #200
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+ 1 need to purge the system or at least some of it.
Meh they've been doing better without Prendergast trying to outsmart everyone with the first round pick. Hell if you look at our non-first round drafting history from 200-2007, it's not actually that bad. 2002 was an especially great haul with Greene/Stoll. Can this scouting staff do better? Absolutely. But they're much better than a certain team who had Mark Jankowski ranked #1 and Emile Poirire ranked top 10. We just need to add a few more reliable scouts, no need to boot everyone.

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