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Phoenix XCVII: Forget it, Jake. It's Glendale.

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Old
07-07-2013, 11:45 AM
  #76
Concordski
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... Old hat. Entertaining. Semi-plausible. Just for fun.
Oh, for sure.

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07-07-2013, 11:57 AM
  #77
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It's a heck of a lot better than JIG I or II.
And yet, despite months and months of trying, and apparently highly plugged in with the NHL, Jamison couldn't close the deal whereas RSE could with only $45 million in capital.

My speculation is that the main difference is the "out clause". Jamison didn't have one, so he didn't have as much protection of downside risk. I think that RSE was willing and able to close despite less direct subsidy from the COG because they can make the team portable in 5 years, in case they are taking a bath.

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07-07-2013, 12:04 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by CasualFan View Post
I was just responding to this same topic.

@ Bold
The city appears to consistently use the "per-ticket surcharge" methodology even when calculating "Without Team" scenarios. It's a completely fictional data set. The SMG response doesn't utilize per ticket fees. They divide total revenue so the city gets a much more equitable position in the performance of the arena.

When compared side-by-side, which of course Glendale would never do, the bids would end up direct revenue of somewhere around:

RSE ("With Team")
-$8MM per year

SMG ("Without Team")
+$2MM per year

It's roughly a $10MM swing on the direct. Also, separately and even though lockout numbers don't really show it, credit the Coyotes with $2.5MM indirect revenues that could not be recovered if the team left, the gap comes down to around $7.5MM per year. Plus you have to measure the intangibles somehow. In the end, IMO, if you squint, it's close. It's a heck of a lot better than JIG I or II.
CF - Thanks. This is the comparison that needs to be made:
With hockey vs without hockey.

I agree that it's much better that JIG.

However, what it does not factor is the FEAR-MONGERING about how Westgate dies without the hockey team.

I saw somewhere a description that said, roughly, 500K people come the games, 2M to Westgate. Now, we know that not all the hockey patrons go to Westgate, but even with that assumption, you have a huge number of people at Westgate with no hockey team, and the assumption the Arena is totally idle all those dates.

So, the real deal is:

Sherwood went rogue, because he can't stand the idea of the team leaving. He therefore arranged the serial meetings, in which Knaack, Chavira, and Martinez were convinced that "hockey must be saved, or Westgate dies."

After that, all presentations are skewed to show "Arena with hockeyteam" vs "Arena with no events but we still pay 6M/yr anyway."

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07-07-2013, 12:08 PM
  #79
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I think a huge help to the situation with the Coyotes and Glendale would be a new name on the arena. Who is going to sponsor it? And for how much?

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07-07-2013, 12:11 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
CF - Thanks. This is the comparison that needs to be made:
With hockey vs without hockey.

I agree that it's much better that JIG.

However, what it does not factor is the FEAR-MONGERING about how Westgate dies without the hockey team.

I saw somewhere a description that said, roughly, 500K people come the games, 2M to Westgate. Now, we know that not all the hockey patrons go to Westgate, but even with that assumption, you have a huge number of people at Westgate with no hockey team, and the assumption the Arena is totally idle all those dates.

So, the real deal is:

Sherwood went rogue, because he can't stand the idea of the team leaving. He therefore arranged the serial meetings, in which Knaack, Chavira, and Martinez were convinced that "hockey must be saved, or Westgate dies."

After that, all presentations are skewed to show "Arena with hockeyteam" vs "Arena with no events but we still pay 6M/yr anyway."

Just how dead would the area be?

After all as Billy Crystal as "Miracle Max said in "The Princess Bride", there's dead and mostly dead.

Carry on, I enjoy the wild speculation!

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07-07-2013, 12:14 PM
  #81
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I think a huge help to the situation with the Coyotes and Glendale would be a new name on the arena. Who is going to sponsor it? And for how much?

As I understand it Skoda is putting a mfg. facility near the arena in Glendale to produce it's auto's for the U.S. market and there plan is to sponsor the arena for 500 million.

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07-07-2013, 12:15 PM
  #82
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As I understand it Skoda is putting a mfg. facility near the arena in Glendale to produce it's auto's for the U.S. market and there plan is to sponsor the arena for 500 million.
500 million what, pesos?

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07-07-2013, 12:15 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Whileee View Post
And yet, despite months and months of trying, and apparently highly plugged in with the NHL, Jamison couldn't close the deal whereas RSE could with only $45 million in capital.

My speculation is that the main difference is the "out clause". Jamison didn't have one, so he didn't have as much protection of downside risk. I think that RSE was willing and able to close despite less direct subsidy from the COG because they can make the team portable in 5 years, in case they are taking a bath.

The NHL sure seems to love these guys for some reason, that's as good as and perhaps better than any.

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07-07-2013, 12:16 PM
  #84
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500 million what, pesos?
Euro!!!

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07-07-2013, 12:17 PM
  #85
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Euro!!!
Do you know how much money that is? Skoda is going to sponsor jobing.com by a magnitude of 10 more than any other sponsorship deal? Maybe you'd better think this one through a bit.

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07-07-2013, 12:25 PM
  #86
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So uh, have they closed the deal yet?

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07-07-2013, 12:28 PM
  #87
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Thanks for that. Slide 4 is entertaining... even with all the extra revenue they still project a $2.3 million budget hit from the deal.

The RSE revenue projections on slide 6 are rich... 50% CAGR in years 1-5. The growth rates are constant across the board. They're even projecting a 21% CAGR over 15 years for the naming rights! I'm surprised they didn't project hitting the Powerball jackpot.


edit: just realized those are cumm. Not a well labeled slide. I don't understand the fixation with cumm revenues.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kihekah19 View Post


More ABSOLUTELY WILD speculation!
as is this cornerstone of the Subsidist school of thought:

Quote:
Originally Posted by kihekah19 View Post
Yes. It's simple Dave: Without the Coyotes at Jobbing.Com arena Glendale is screwed. Everyone except those that don't want the team in Glendale [mod] seems to understand this.
Difference being those with a modicum of financial education and work experience know this to be hogwash.


Last edited by OthmarAmmann: 07-07-2013 at 12:35 PM.
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07-07-2013, 12:30 PM
  #88
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Do you know how much money that is? Skoda is going to sponsor jobing.com by a magnitude of 10 more than any other sponsorship deal? Maybe you'd better think this one through a bit.

The figure was designed to alert the reader to the complete B.S. that it represents in lieu of

Idea being that one form of ridiculous speculation has as much merit as another.

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07-07-2013, 12:36 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by kihekah19 View Post
The figure was designed to alert the reader to the complete B.S. that it represents in lieu of

Idea being that one form of ridiculous speculation has as much merit as another.


You know, most of the so-called "wild speculation" you accuse everyone of engaging in has been backed-up by actual reports and links. What do you have to back-up your counter-claims?

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07-07-2013, 12:38 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by kihekah19 View Post
The figure was designed to alert the reader to the complete B.S. that it represents in lieu of

Idea being that one form of ridiculous speculation has as much merit as another.
Except most of the information provided here is NOT speculation at all but actual figures.

If you want to use the Glendale "The sky will fall if the Coyotes move" fine but tossing out some fiction compared to real figures is insulting to anyone's intelligence.

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07-07-2013, 12:44 PM
  #91
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You know, most of the so-called "wild speculation" you accuse everyone of engaging in has been backed-up by actual reports and links. What do you have to back-up your counter-claims?

The only thing that matters is the consistent approval of various lease agreements by the GCC.

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Originally Posted by Donwood View Post
Except most of the information provided here is NOT speculation at all but actual figures.

If you want to use the Glendale "The sky will fall if the Coyotes move" fine but tossing out some fiction compared to real figures is insulting to anyone's intelligence.

The FACT is that the GCC has time and time again approved agreements that prove beyond a doubt that the elected officials (be it the new or old) are convinced that the future is better for their constituents with the franchise remaining.


Last edited by kihekah19: 07-07-2013 at 01:00 PM.
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07-07-2013, 12:47 PM
  #92
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So uh, have they closed the deal yet?
2 more weeks + 2 more weeks will supposedly = a deal closing. However, I don't think anyone will say this is a done deal as of yet. We all know how these "deals" have ended up in the past regarding the Coyotes. It will be done when all parties have signed, sealed and delivered their end of the bargain. Until then, let the "wild speculation" continue, I say! It's so much fun regardless

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07-07-2013, 12:48 PM
  #93
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The FACT is that the GCC has time and time again approved agreements that prove beyond a doubt that the elected officials (be it the new or old) are convinced that the future is better for their constituents with the franchise remaining.
The FACT most of the Glendale council over the past 5 years either can't read or comprehend data. Furthermore, city managers like Beasley intentionally used flawed data to get votes for the Coyotes. A lot of stupidity and corruption at Glendale city hall.

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07-07-2013, 12:50 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by MNNumbers View Post
CF - Thanks. This is the comparison that needs to be made:
With hockey vs without hockey.

I agree that it's much better that JIG.

However, what it does not factor is the FEAR-MONGERING about how Westgate dies without the hockey team.

I saw somewhere a description that said, roughly, 500K people come the games, 2M to Westgate. Now, we know that not all the hockey patrons go to Westgate, but even with that assumption, you have a huge number of people at Westgate with no hockey team, and the assumption the Arena is totally idle all those dates.

So, the real deal is:

Sherwood went rogue, because he can't stand the idea of the team leaving. He therefore arranged the serial meetings, in which Knaack, Chavira, and Martinez were convinced that "hockey must be saved, or Westgate dies."

After that, all presentations are skewed to show "Arena with hockeyteam" vs "Arena with no events but we still pay 6M/yr anyway."

To quote an infamous person whose name should never be used in public "... If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. ..."

...and thus the reason some at the BOH believe it !

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07-07-2013, 12:50 PM
  #95
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The FACT most of the Glendale council over the past 5 years either can't read or comprehend data. Furthermore, city managers like Beasley intentionally used flawed data to get votes for the Coyotes. A lot of stupidity and corruption at Glendale city hall.

That doesn't matter now does it?

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07-07-2013, 12:51 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Puckschmuck View Post
2 more weeks + 2 more weeks will supposedly = a deal closing. However, I don't think anyone will say this is a done deal as of yet. We all know how these "deals" have ended up in the past regarding the Coyotes. It will be done when all parties have signed, sealed and delivered their end of the bargain. Until then, let the "wild speculation" continue, I say! It's so much fun regardless

I think when it's all said and done, the final epitaph on the Phoenix megathread series will be: One Thousand and One [Fort]Nights.

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07-07-2013, 12:54 PM
  #97
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To quote an infamous person whose name should never be used in public "... If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. ..."

...and thus the reason some at the BOH believe it !

Oh please. Now we have a comparison of the GCC to Joseph Goebbels?

I know that many of y'all really don't want the team in the desert, but this is way over the top.

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07-07-2013, 12:55 PM
  #98
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That doesn't matter now does it?
Don't count on it, RSE may not close and the audit etc, may show the garbage going on behind the scenes in Glendale.

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07-07-2013, 12:57 PM
  #99
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2 more weeks + 2 more weeks will supposedly = a deal closing. However, I don't think anyone will say this is a done deal as of yet. We all know how these "deals" have ended up in the past regarding the Coyotes. It will be done when all parties have signed, sealed and delivered their end of the bargain. Until then, let the "wild speculation" continue, I say! It's so much fun regardless

Agreed.

I particularly like the concern for the citizens of Glendale by those from so far away.... it restores my faith in humanity!

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07-07-2013, 12:58 PM
  #100
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I think when it's all said and done, the final epitaph on the Phoenix megathread series will be: One Thousand and One [Fort]Nights.
You've been marking the days off on your "Civic Leaders of Glendale" calendars this whole time, haven't you?

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