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Old
07-09-2013, 03:16 PM
  #51
Zhamnov10
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
Not sure what you're talking about. If anything Noel is way too conservative with tweaking his lines in the middle of a game.

http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combos/

Jets line combos are among the more consistent in the league.
I'm not sure what you are talking about I agree with pcanuck Noel constantly switches lines during the game to try and get the guys going heaven forbid he may have to talk to them on the bench to display his opinions.i'll admit he didn't do it as much last year compared to the first year.starting the game with set lines is one thing sticking to the lines throughout the game is another.

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07-09-2013, 03:22 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Bogosian44 View Post
Here are my predicted line ups for the upcoming 2013/14 season Breaking up the LLW line is a good thing in my opinion.
Ladd Schief Wheels - creativity
Kane Little Seto - speed
Tangradi Joker Frolik - 2 way
Wright Slater Peluso- grind/energy

Enstrom/Bogo
Clitty/Buff
Stuart/Trouba
Postma/Redmond

PP1 Ladd Little Seto Enstrom Buff
PP2 Kane Schief Wheels Bogo Trouba
PK1 Slater Frolik Clitty Bogo
PK2 Little Wright Stuart Trouba
That is exactly how I see the season starting as well putting Scheif with wheels and Ladd will give him a little more defensive support

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Old
07-09-2013, 03:58 PM
  #53
Hank Chinaski
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Originally Posted by Zhamnov10 View Post
I'm not sure what you are talking about I agree with pcanuck Noel constantly switches lines during the game to try and get the guys going heaven forbid he may have to talk to them on the bench to display his opinions.i'll admit he didn't do it as much last year compared to the first year.starting the game with set lines is one thing sticking to the lines throughout the game is another.
You don't have to take my word for it, I gave a link to a site where you can check for yourself. Compare the Winnipeg lines combinations to other teams across the league. If anything, Noel is more static with his line combinations than the majority of coaches in the NHL. For instance, few teams had a first line as set in stone as LLW was.

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07-09-2013, 04:20 PM
  #54
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Frolik was a center when he played with the Panthers. With his speed and skill I would put him up on the second line (or at least try it). Scheifele and Jokinen could move up to second line if their play warrants it.

Ladd Little Wheeler
Kane Frolik Setoguchi
Tangradi Jokinen Scheif
Wright Slater Peluso/Thorburn

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07-09-2013, 04:57 PM
  #55
Zhamnov5GoalGame
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Originally Posted by Jay Gatsby View Post
First of all, a big hello to everyone here. I've been reading posts on Thrashers/Jets boards for like six years now, I just thought it was about time to join. Don't mind my language, since there is nothing to like about learning English at a german school

From what we have on our roster as of right now, I'd try this:

Ladd-Little-Wheeler
Kane-Scheifele-Setoguchi
Tangradi-Jokinen-Frolik
Wright-Slater-Peluso
O'Dell/Thorburn

Entstrom-Byfuglien
Bogosian-Clitsome
Stuart-Trouba
Redmond/Postma

Pavelec
Montoya

Still, I fear that Scheifele and Jokinen will switch spots, since there is no defensive attitude in Jokinens game at all. But even if we'd end up with Scheifele centering Frolik and Tangradi, those three could form a very interesting trio IMHO.

If we keep Trouba, he has to be in the Top 6 , anything else would just be pure waste of time. Pair him with Stuart so he can learn more about in-zone Defense, and give him some looks on the point in PP2
I actually disagree with this statement. In the first half of the season Jokinen was very effective defensively. He broke up so many plays and intercepted so many passes on his back check. BUT as the season progressed and his offensive woes continued his defense seemed to vanish. Those smart plays he was making started to disappear and the frustration of having a bad season mounted. We can only pray that Jokinen has one good year left in him! As long as they don't try to play him with Kane I'll be happy.

What would the reaction on this board be if the Jets signed Antro for a 1 year / 2 mil contract?

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07-09-2013, 05:09 PM
  #56
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If the Jets are considering Scheifele on the wing, I'd rather they season him a bit more in the A at C (responding to a post above about moving Frolik to C). That's just not his game, and I think the Jets would be better served developing him as a centre.

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07-09-2013, 05:13 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
You don't have to take my word for it, I gave a link to a site where you can check for yourself. Compare the Winnipeg lines combinations to other teams across the league. If anything, Noel is more static with his line combinations than the majority of coaches in the NHL. For instance, few teams had a first line as set in stone as LLW was.
Yes, the Jets are not outliers v. the league however, the line combos was not my only point. My argument is that Noel is a joke of a coach. I agree with others on here that the lines they've developed are good. I like doing it too...

HOWEVER, Noel does not have roles for any of his players. He plays on who's hot and who's not. That tells me and his players that he does not have confidence in his team and panics. Good coaches implement a system prior to a game/series. Juggling lines can happen but come on, you watched the games this year.

Do you not remember Burmi getting benched for poor play for two straight games then Burmi played over 20 min. the next game he was inserted in the lineup? I think he played on every line. How does this happen? He was terrible then our best player? How about the 4th line during one game last season not even getting 2 minutes of ice time during the game. Even the commentators called out Noel for it.

The most hilarious aspect of Noel's bag of tricks is that he lets some players PICK their teammates - yes, he specifically mentioned 2X stuff Buff CHOOSING to play with who he wanted (in a TSN interview). I guess we didn't hire a coach but rather a yes man (esp. with the veterans).

Noel has said time and time again that he likes defensive hockey. The result - our GA-GF ratio is terrible. So he puts two offensive defencemen together (Buff and Enstrom) to do what? Score more goals? What about defence? I think I saw Buff hit a guy 10X all last year.

All that being said, statistics are valuable and an important rubric if taken into context with a variety of other variables. You are simply looking at frequencies not more detailed analysis. I work with massive data sets on a daily basis and statistics CAN mask other tendencies. So yes, the stats may be accurate but it doesn't explain the context and/or wild fluxuations of a coach. For instance, if you were to look at notorious Mike Kennan (in Chi) for switching his goaltenders. The numbers would suggest that his annual switches weren't out of the ordinary however, you wouldn't know he'd pull a guy the same game then re-insert him (context).

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07-09-2013, 05:24 PM
  #58
Zhamnov10
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
You don't have to take my word for it, I gave a link to a site where you can check for yourself. Compare the Winnipeg lines combinations to other teams across the league. If anything, Noel is more static with his line combinations than the majority of coaches in the NHL. For instance, few teams had a first line as set in stone as LLW was.
Like I had said this year was better but the stats don't show how he scrambles the lines throughout the game.other teams may change there lines every game which would cause the same effect percentage wise.

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07-09-2013, 05:43 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post
Yes, the Jets are not outliers v. the league however, the line combos was not my only point. My argument is that Noel is a joke of a coach. I agree with others on here that the lines they've developed are good. I like doing it too...

HOWEVER, Noel does not have roles for any of his players. He plays on who's hot and who's not. That tells me and his players that he does not have confidence in his team and panics. Good coaches implement a system prior to a game/series. Juggling lines can happen but come on, you watched the games this year.

Do you not remember Burmi getting benched for poor play for two straight games then Burmi played over 20 min. the next game he was inserted in the lineup? I think he played on every line. How does this happen? He was terrible then our best player? How about the 4th line during one game last season not even getting 2 minutes of ice time during the game. Even the commentators called out Noel for it.

The most hilarious aspect of Noel's bag of tricks is that he lets some players PICK their teammates - yes, he specifically mentioned 2X stuff Buff CHOOSING to play with who he wanted (in a TSN interview). I guess we didn't hire a coach but rather a yes man (esp. with the veterans).

Noel has said time and time again that he likes defensive hockey. The result - our GA-GF ratio is terrible. So he puts two offensive defencemen together (Buff and Enstrom) to do what? Score more goals? What about defence? I think I saw Buff hit a guy 10X all last year.

All that being said, statistics are valuable and an important rubric if taken into context with a variety of other variables. You are simply looking at frequencies not more detailed analysis. I work with massive data sets on a daily basis and statistics CAN mask other tendencies. So yes, the stats may be accurate but it doesn't explain the context and/or wild fluxuations of a coach. For instance, if you were to look at notorious Mike Kennan (in Chi) for switching his goaltenders. The numbers would suggest that his annual switches weren't out of the ordinary however, you wouldn't know he'd pull a guy the same game then re-insert him (context).
Wow well said I wish I could get my point across the way you did I agree 100% with everything you said and that doesn't happen very often for me on these boards I constantly find myself disagreeing with all of these guys and there stats and Corsi numbers I agree they are important but they are definitely not the end all be all.I question if some of these guys even watch the games then have the nerve to call someone not educated enough to have an opinion meanwhile they are not even qualified or experienced enough to fully understand the game of hockey in the first place this comment is not directed at anyone inparticular as I don't keep track of who I converse with.Its really easy to diversify who has played hockey at any significant level and who is just a fan or has honed their skills on the street!

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07-09-2013, 06:15 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Zhamnov10 View Post
Wow well said I wish I could get my point across the way you did I agree 100% with everything you said and that doesn't happen very often for me on these boards I constantly find myself disagreeing with all of these guys and there stats and Corsi numbers I agree they are important but they are definitely not the end all be all.I question if some of these guys even watch the games then have the nerve to call someone not educated enough to have an opinion meanwhile they are not even qualified or experienced enough to fully understand the game of hockey in the first place this comment is not directed at anyone inparticular as I don't keep track of who I converse with.Its really easy to diversify who has played hockey at any significant level and who is just a fan or has honed their skills on the street!
Whatever.

Differing opinions make this board tick, and respectful disagreements and debates make this place worth coming back to. You're well within your right to dismiss opinions that differ from yours as coming from people who are uneducated about the game. Whether that's grounded in reality is another story.

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07-09-2013, 06:47 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post
Yes, the Jets are not outliers v. the league however, the line combos was not my only point. My argument is that Noel is a joke of a coach. I agree with others on here that the lines they've developed are good. I like doing it too...

HOWEVER, Noel does not have roles for any of his players. He plays on who's hot and who's not. That tells me and his players that he does not have confidence in his team and panics. Good coaches implement a system prior to a game/series. Juggling lines can happen but come on, you watched the games this year.
This is different from your argument that I originally quoted. And now I'm not even sure what you're trying to claim here.

"He plays on who's hot and who's not", how do you explain his continual usage of Jokinen when he was struggling, especially on the PP? Constantly trying to force Miettinen and Wellwood into scoring roles when it was clear they weren't getting it done in certain games? Not shuffling the defensive pairings when a defenseman was struggling and should have been getting short-shifted?

I think one of Noel's downfalls is that he's far too rigid with his lineup and the roles he pigeonholes players into.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post
Do you not remember Burmi getting benched for poor play for two straight games then Burmi played over 20 min. the next game he was inserted in the lineup? I think he played on every line. How does this happen? He was terrible then our best player? How about the 4th line during one game last season not even getting 2 minutes of ice time during the game. Even the commentators called out Noel for it.
I don't remember it because I'm pretty sure it never happened. Burmistrov's next game after being healthy scratched for 3 games was vs. Boston, and he played just over 10 minutes. His lowest TOI was 7:37 (vs. the Rangers at the start of April), so not sure what you're talking about with playing two minutes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post
The most hilarious aspect of Noel's bag of tricks is that he lets some players PICK their teammates - yes, he specifically mentioned 2X stuff Buff CHOOSING to play with who he wanted (in a TSN interview). I guess we didn't hire a coach but rather a yes man (esp. with the veterans).
Yeah, because I'm sure Kane put in a specific request to have Antti Miettinen ride shotgun on his line.

Extrapolating based on one quote you heard from him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post

Noel has said time and time again that he likes defensive hockey. The result - our GA-GF ratio is terrible. So he puts two offensive defencemen together (Buff and Enstrom) to do what? Score more goals? What about defence? I think I saw Buff hit a guy 10X all last year.
How about control the puck and the play? Our GA-GF ratio being terrible is just as much Pavelec's fault as it is our defensive pairings.

I'm not a huge fan of the Byfuglien-Enstrom pairing either, but more because I don't think their styles really complement each other. I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with pairing two defensemen who are more offensively inclined.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post
All that being said, statistics are valuable and an important rubric if taken into context with a variety of other variables. You are simply looking at frequencies not more detailed analysis. I work with massive data sets on a daily basis and statistics CAN mask other tendencies. So yes, the stats may be accurate but it doesn't explain the context and/or wild fluxuations of a coach. For instance, if you were to look at notorious Mike Kennan (in Chi) for switching his goaltenders. The numbers would suggest that his annual switches weren't out of the ordinary however, you wouldn't know he'd pull a guy the same game then re-insert him (context).
Fair enough. If you'd rather go with the eyeball test, I see Claude Noel as being more rigid with his line combinations than other NHL coaches, and not being quick to adapt them based on game context.

We're just attacking the same problem from different ends. Like you, I don't like how Noel handles his lines at times. I just view it differently than you.

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07-09-2013, 09:46 PM
  #62
Zhamnov10
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
Whatever.

Differing opinions make this board tick, and respectful disagreements and debates make this place worth coming back to. You're well within your right to dismiss opinions that differ from yours as coming from people who are uneducated about the game. Whether that's grounded in reality is another story.
Tennis ball or sponge puck?

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07-09-2013, 09:58 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by pcanuck View Post
Yes, the Jets are not outliers v. the league however, the line combos was not my only point. My argument is that Noel is a joke of a coach. I agree with others on here that the lines they've developed are good. I like doing it too...

HOWEVER, Noel does not have roles for any of his players. He plays on who's hot and who's not. That tells me and his players that he does not have confidence in his team and panics. Good coaches implement a system prior to a game/series. Juggling lines can happen but come on, you watched the games this year.

Do you not remember Burmi getting benched for poor play for two straight games then Burmi played over 20 min. the next game he was inserted in the lineup? I think he played on every line. How does this happen? He was terrible then our best player? How about the 4th line during one game last season not even getting 2 minutes of ice time during the game. Even the commentators called out Noel for it.

The most hilarious aspect of Noel's bag of tricks is that he lets some players PICK their teammates - yes, he specifically mentioned 2X stuff Buff CHOOSING to play with who he wanted (in a TSN interview). I guess we didn't hire a coach but rather a yes man (esp. with the veterans).

Noel has said time and time again that he likes defensive hockey. The result - our GA-GF ratio is terrible. So he puts two offensive defencemen together (Buff and Enstrom) to do what? Score more goals? What about defence? I think I saw Buff hit a guy 10X all last year.

All that being said, statistics are valuable and an important rubric if taken into context with a variety of other variables. You are simply looking at frequencies not more detailed analysis. I work with massive data sets on a daily basis and statistics CAN mask other tendencies. So yes, the stats may be accurate but it doesn't explain the context and/or wild fluxuations of a coach. For instance, if you were to look at notorious Mike Kennan (in Chi) for switching his goaltenders. The numbers would suggest that his annual switches weren't out of the ordinary however, you wouldn't know he'd pull a guy the same game then re-insert him (context).



I kind of agree with you, it is mostly because I don't like Noel as a coach, I think there are better options out there.

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07-09-2013, 10:09 PM
  #64
Hank Chinaski
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Tennis ball or sponge puck?
Neither, but my noggin would have preferred either of those over hard rubber pucks.


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07-09-2013, 10:18 PM
  #65
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For the Germans: why did you decide to start following the Thrashers/Jets? The Atlanta Thrashers seems like an odd team to decide to follow since they were so bad for so long.

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07-09-2013, 10:38 PM
  #66
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Frolik was a center when he played with the Panthers. With his speed and skill I would put him up on the second line (or at least try it). Scheifele and Jokinen could move up to second line if their play warrants it.

Ladd Little Wheeler
Kane Frolik Setoguchi
Tangradi Jokinen Scheif
Wright Slater Peluso/Thorburn
I like the way that looks but how is Frolik in terms of his playmaking abilities? All 3 have great speed but ideally I'd like to see a natural playmaker in between Kane and Seto.

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07-09-2013, 11:02 PM
  #67
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Hah I'm guessing I'm then one of those who haven't played hockey at a high level then and doesn't know or watch hockey... (ps all 3 untrue)

I guess I'm wrong that having Enstrom-Byfuglien together is best for the team, even though when they are together Jets out-shoot opponents, out-score opponents and have the puck more often in the other teams zone than not... and more impressively so than any other pairing we have had (including ones with just one of those two)... and more impressively than a lot of team's defense pairings...
Those are stats after all so they must mean nothing...

I concede; defensive D-men who can clear the net but can't push the play forward are the best and should be used much as possible. Obviously I am wrong and know nothing about hockey and same with Jack Adams Award winning and only-missed-playoffs-once Dave Tippett:
Quote:
We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can't move the puck.
Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn't defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he's making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he's only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.

Edit almost forgot this =>

Active coaches and management who have openly confessed to using advanced analytics and/or discussed shot attempts (ie: Corsi) to equate to possession time which is essential for teams:
Dave Tippett
Alain Vigneault
Lindy Ruff
Barry Trotz
Paul Maclean

Active coaches who have dismissed analytics (and stated that helmets cause concussions ):
Randy Carlyle

Everyone else, we don't know.

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07-10-2013, 01:02 AM
  #68
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if thorburn is on the opening day roster, that is a bad sign IMO.

I think that Tangradi can/should be upgraded as well
If we lose any player (other than Jokinen) on waivers going down to the Icecaps, whilst Thorburn remains, Chevy should be fired. And my second choice for sending down to the Icecaps would be Jokinen. He may not be waiver-exempt, but he's effectively waiver-proof. And if we lose him because the Islanders are that desparate to climb to the salary-floor, it's not like we don't have a plethora of 3rd-line centres and prospects.

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07-10-2013, 01:10 AM
  #69
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I have not seen anyone mention Aaron Gagnon who is an UFA. I thought he played very well when he was up last season. If the organization feels Scheifele or ODell are not ready, how about Gagnon to fill that third line center position?

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07-10-2013, 01:28 AM
  #70
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+/- is a function of out-chancing your opponent, goaltending, usage and luck... two of those statistics (goaltending and luck) can be seen through percentages.
The percentages tend to need 200 games to regress to the mean just by 55%... which means you need far more than 200 games just to get luck out of +/-, and that still doesn't remove usage.
Clitsome benefited from the second highest SV% and highest team SH%. These percentages relative to team average are quite random as players on top one season for one of them and will be bottom next, etc. etc.
Corsi is essentially +/- with a lot less luck (but still slightly exists).

In other words, Corsi is what +/- would be if there was a lot less luck involved, but still usage.
I understand usage/sheltering affecting +/-. But at some point "luck" has to be thrown out as an excuse. OK, so maybe player A is lucky, and player B is Joe Btfsplk (complete with a black cloud over his head). If I was coach, I'd go with the "lucky" guy, until his "luck" runs out. Do whatever it takes to win.

A question for the advanced stats community... has it ever occured to anybody that maybe, just maybe, some players "make their own luck"...

E.g. We had a higher save % with Clitsome on the ice. I remember Clitsome covering up on multiple 2-on-1's last season (thank you Dustin Byfuglien ). Clitsome defended beautifully, often intercepting passes between the 2 attacking forwards. The shots that they did get onto Pavs were often from well out, instead of from 10 feet out with no defender in sight. Well of course Pavs had a better save % on those. And we all know that he's terrible when there's lateral movement required (one attacking forward successfully passes to another).

As far as I'm concerned, that's not "luck", that's good defense by Grant Clitsome. Until advanced statistics can properly handle that, pardon me if I remain skeptical.


Last edited by knorthern knight: 07-10-2013 at 01:43 AM.
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07-10-2013, 01:43 AM
  #71
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There's so many factors in play this year it's ridiculous. Our "core" lineup is as follows:

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Jokinen - Setoguchi
x - y - Frolik
Wright - Slater - Thorburn
Peluso

Enstrom - Buff
Clitsome - Bogosian
Stuart - Redmond/Postma
Pardy

I'm pretty sure all of the following young players in our system are subject to waivers:

- Redmond*
- Postma*
- Kulda*
- Peluso*#
- Cormier
- O'Dell

* Players will qualify for group 6 UFA next summer if they do not have a contract AND don't have 80 NHL games by that time.
# Peluso was qualified, and it must be a 1-way since he was claimed off waivers last year.

So only Scheifele and Trouba can pass through waivers. There are no other young players I'd consider for our opening day roster that are waiver exempt. There's lots of moving parts, and many things to consider. Generally quality players who qualify for waivers will get a shot at the big club past opening night. That should pretty much fill up our roster, but we'll see what moves Chevy makes as he has cap space now that Burmi is gone.

I think we'll be losing some young quality players to waivers. I'ts not such a bad thing that Burmi went to the KHL. It really sucks that there are a few players who never had a good chance at the NHL(Kulda, Redmond due to injury, O'Dell, Cormier to a lesser extent) are now subject to waivers, lowering their trade value dramatically. We'll be feeding the waiver wire this year, and there's a good chance some players will be claimed.

Also given the fact that Gagnon mostly played in the AHL this year, TNSE is not afraid of burying small 1-way contracts in the AHL. So this means guys like Pardy and Peluso are not gauranteed an opening roster spot, much less one throughout the season.


Last edited by allan5oh: 07-10-2013 at 01:48 AM.
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07-10-2013, 01:49 AM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
There's so many factors in play this year it's ridiculous. Our "core" lineup is as follows:

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Jokinen - Setoguchi
x - y - Frolik
Wright - Slater - Thorburn
Peluso
+Tangradi

Enstrom - Buff
Clitsome - Bogosian
Stuart - Redmond/Postma
Pardy
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Old
07-10-2013, 01:58 AM
  #73
allan5oh
#Dive4Five #31Buyout
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
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I think his offer sheet is a 2-way.... He'll probably sign it. I think he's in the AHL next year.

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Old
07-10-2013, 02:20 AM
  #74
Jay Gatsby
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Wolfsburg, Germany
Country: Germany
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by koth View Post
For the Germans: why did you decide to start following the Thrashers/Jets? The Atlanta Thrashers seems like an odd team to decide to follow since they were so bad for so long.
I have always liked finnish Goalies, especially the young ones, so when I saw Kari I just went for it. Next thing was that I started playing myself, so I chose Kovalchuk to master my shot after. Before the hating starts: No, I can't shoot nearly as good as Kovalchuk, but I was 14 or something at the time.

That is how I got to like the Thrashers, I really didn't know that I picked such a bad team.
I still follow Kari's game very closely, I love how he was able to turn it around in Dallas.
Since he has been drafted, I like Bryan Little a lot, great overall game.


Last edited by Jay Gatsby: 07-10-2013 at 02:22 AM. Reason: Mistakes
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Old
07-10-2013, 02:23 AM
  #75
Jake from Finland
Rookie User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Finland
Country: Finland
Posts: 3
vCash: 500
Hi everybody! This is my first message in HFBoards!

LLW
Kane-Jokinen-Setoguchi
Tangradi-Scheiffele-Frolik
Wright-Slater-Peluso/Thorburn

Enström-Bogosian
Clitsome-Buff
Stuart-Pardy
Trouba,Postma

I didnt put Joker in the 2nd line because he is Finn. I think he has so much more to give in our 2nd line than Scheiffele at the beginning of season. He is great player and he deserves a second chance! But i hope and believe that Scheiffele will be in 2nd line after December.

Trouba should start between AHL and NHL depends how good he really is in NHL level. There aint any rush with him. I like the way Jets handle these junior players!

I have been Jets fan from that moment you drafted Teemu Selänne. My heart is half in Winnipeg!
Greetings from Finland to all of you!

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