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Over/Under 1.5 more cups for Toews/Kane

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Old
07-09-2013, 08:14 PM
  #76
Sir Psycho T
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Originally Posted by Hawkaholic View Post
Every team gets lucky +/- the same amount throughout the course of a playoffs or season. Chicago wasn't anymore luckier than Boston, or Pittsburgh, or Detroit. They were the better team, which is why they won.

And again, were we just unlucky against PHX?
I'm not saying those teams weren't. Every team that wins a Cup gets lucky. It's part of winning, in every sport, 1 different bounce, call, play and you can lose. Injuries, bad streaks, coaching mistakes etc.

It takes SO many things to go just right to win a Championship in any sport, but more so in hockey then most, that expecting to win is almost a guarantee to fail.

Maybe the next 5 years the Hawks don't get so lucky. Maybe Hossas back injury is worse then we realize, maybe Toews starts to suffer from multiple concussions, maybe guys like Hammer or Shaw regress, maybe everyone brought in doesn't click with the team and mesh right away. and so on and so forth.

The Blackhawks are built and positioned to be a top team for many years and a cup contender and favorite for sure. Whether they win those cups are not comes down to everything I just listed and more.

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07-09-2013, 08:38 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Sarava View Post
I don't know what they will do. They could win 3 more in the Toews/Kane era, or they could not win another. Those of us old enough to remember the 85 Bears - we never would have thought that was going to be it. They were such an explosive and young team.
Buddy Ryan's departure
McMahon's shoulder injury
Payton's eventual decline
Ditka's obsession with Flutie
Wilbur Marshall free agency
Mike Tomczak
Jim Harbaugh

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07-10-2013, 01:05 AM
  #78
WarriorofTime
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Let's just say I'll be ecstatic with 1 more.

In 2010, I said just win once and I'll be happy forever.

In 2013, I said once more, then I'm good.

Gotta just enjoy them for what they are. Can't be looking ahead to multiple championships when one is so hard to win.

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07-10-2013, 03:23 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by Sir Psycho T View Post
I'm not saying those teams weren't. Every team that wins a Cup gets lucky. It's part of winning, in every sport, 1 different bounce, call, play and you can lose. Injuries, bad streaks, coaching mistakes etc.

It takes SO many things to go just right to win a Championship in any sport, but more so in hockey then most, that expecting to win is almost a guarantee to fail.

Maybe the next 5 years the Hawks don't get so lucky. Maybe Hossas back injury is worse then we realize, maybe Toews starts to suffer from multiple concussions, maybe guys like Hammer or Shaw regress, maybe everyone brought in doesn't click with the team and mesh right away. and so on and so forth.

The Blackhawks are built and positioned to be a top team for many years and a cup contender and favorite for sure. Whether they win those cups are not comes down to everything I just listed and more.
Flawless post. Every championship involves a ton of luck and good circumstances for the winning team. When you have a sample size as small as 7 games to determine who advances, it's always going to be like that.

Perfect example is Erat's stupid turnover in game 5 of the first round in 2010. That entire sequence of events that lead to the SHG started with the Erat turnover. If he doesn't do that, then an entirely new chain of events is started. Could we have still scored a SHG with a new set of events? It's possible, but it goes back to being highly unlikely. We probably lose game 5 and go down 3-2 in the series with a road game coming up. Even if we were the superior team, the odds are in favor of us losing the series at this point.

This is part of the magic of postseason hockey, and it's why it can be so heartbreaking when you're on the other end. Everything you work for all year comes down to this tiny sample size of events. Once they got to the Finals this year, it didn't even feel like it matter who was the better team between them and Boston. It was just going to come down to who had the better 2 weeks. Who got the bounces, who got the post, etc. No matter how good you are, luck is a significant factor.

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07-10-2013, 03:57 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Sir Psycho T View Post
I'm not saying those teams weren't. Every team that wins a Cup gets lucky. It's part of winning, in every sport, 1 different bounce, call, play and you can lose. Injuries, bad streaks, coaching mistakes etc.

It takes SO many things to go just right to win a Championship in any sport, but more so in hockey then most, that expecting to win is almost a guarantee to fail.

Maybe the next 5 years the Hawks don't get so lucky. Maybe Hossas back injury is worse then we realize, maybe Toews starts to suffer from multiple concussions, maybe guys like Hammer or Shaw regress, maybe everyone brought in doesn't click with the team and mesh right away. and so on and so forth.

The Blackhawks are built and positioned to be a top team for many years and a cup contender and favorite for sure. Whether they win those cups are not comes down to everything I just listed and more.
Thank you. Yeesh, the last couple pages of this thread comprise some of the most misinformed opinions I've read here, and that's saying a lot.

Talent is very evenly spread through the league because of the cap. Just because we say "luck" plays a very large part in determining the winner doesn't mean we don't think there is a lot of skill involved or that the players' skill isn't absolutely incredible. But when you distribute that talent very evenly through the teams, the end result is that a few bounces, bad calls, etc. either way can be the deciding factor.

And this influence of luck should be obvious. We are always talking about how the Presidents' Trophy winning team rarely wins the Cup. So if you are saying there is very little luck involved, you are then saying that the playoff run (about 25% as long as the regular season) is more likely to determine the best team than the full 82 games.

And then we circle back to this current Hawks team. A year ago folks are saying that Stan didn't do enough and that the current roster is weak and might miss the playoffs or get knocked out in the 1st/2nd round. Now the same folks expect 1-3 more championships from this group. T

But part of it is that people will ALWAYS look for something to ***** and complain about. So if you set the bar unreasonably high, the team will always provide you something....to ***** and complain about.

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07-10-2013, 04:23 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Let's just say I'll be ecstatic with 1 more.

In 2010, I said just win once and I'll be happy forever.

In 2013, I said once more, then I'm good.

Gotta just enjoy them for what they are. Can't be looking ahead to multiple championships when one is so hard to win.
Yep. Be grateful for one in your lifetime and anything more is just icing on the cake. Obviously, Chicago is and should be expected to compete for the Cup every year, but in a 16-team playoff, there are no guarantees or easy roads to a Championship.

In both Cup-winning years, Chicago easily could have been knocked out before making the WCF. Obviously, in 2013 vs. Detroit, coming back from 3-1 down and in 2010, vs Nashville, when Martin Erat's ridiculous turnover on the PP enabled Chicago to tie the game, send it to OT, win it, and eventually take the series in 6 games.

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07-10-2013, 05:58 PM
  #82
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Over. Kane and Toews have a long way to go and haven't hit their primes yet. (Which will be scary good.) You have to think that if they stay with the core of this team they'll get two more.

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07-11-2013, 12:33 AM
  #83
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like I said before... 1 is more likely but 2? that's asking for much

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07-11-2013, 01:42 AM
  #84
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Over if Hammer is core.

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07-11-2013, 01:45 AM
  #85
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I LOVE the Rask contract...in my opinion, long term it cap-screws the Bruins because despite his extremely favorable early numbers, it's too early to bet so much on him. Bruins' team defense - and Rask as an inescapable byproduct - got exposed by the speedy puck-possession Hawks. Rask did not overly impress. We'll see further overall Boston defensive erosion in the months/years to come, trust me. Look out for Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto, and the Islanders moving forward. Laughable that Rask's numbers would project onto Crow in his situation...simply no way Stan is buying into the hype. He'll offer Corey (Cup winner wanting more per his own Rally rant) a fair and equitable contract, which he'll either accept, or he won't. But you can bet it will be much closer to the $5.5M level.


Last edited by LBS8844: 07-11-2013 at 02:01 AM.
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07-11-2013, 05:40 AM
  #86
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you are saying Hammer is the reason we win the Cup? He'll make or break our seasons?

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07-11-2013, 10:32 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubba88 View Post
you are saying Hammer is the reason we win the Cup? He'll make or break our seasons?
Actually yes, and I’m not sure why you would even question it. Of course it was a team effort but his contribution was large. I suppose with his simple, non spectacular style, Hammer will always be underrated, but imo, when it comes to playing efficient defence, he is our best, and it’s not really close.

As for the under/over question… unfortunately logic dictates under. First off the line should start at .5, not 1.5… and if you don’t believe me, ask any NHL player that has a SC under their belt…. Including Hull and Mikita who both will say it was a given in their minds that they'd get another after ‘61 (and they had only 5 other teams to contend against in their day).

I think Pyscho put things into proper perspective in post # 76. The SC is often claimed as the most difficult championship to win, and for good reason. Short of the planets aligning, many things must fall into place to emerge the winner.

Not saying the present core will not win another, but we should savour winning it twice in the last 4 years.


Last edited by BobbyJet: 07-11-2013 at 10:53 AM.
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07-11-2013, 01:30 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by BobbyJet View Post
Actually yes, and Iím not sure why you would even question it. Of course it was a team effort but his contribution was large. I suppose with his simple, non spectacular style, Hammer will always be underrated, but imo, when it comes to playing efficient defence, he is our best, and itís not really close.

As for the under/over questionÖ unfortunately logic dictates under. First off the line should start at .5, not 1.5Ö and if you donít believe me, ask any NHL player that has a SC under their beltÖ. Including Hull and Mikita who both will say it was a given in their minds that they'd get another after Ď61 (and they had only 5 other teams to contend against in their day).

I think Pyscho put things into proper perspective in post # 76. The SC is often claimed as the most difficult championship to win, and for good reason. Short of the planets aligning, many things must fall into place to emerge the winner.

Not saying the present core will not win another, but we should savour winning it twice in the last 4 years.
Strongly agree with this post (and Psycho's in #76). As fans, we should be absolutely THRILLED with what the Hawks have been able to accomplish.

Just hypothetically, this is how the odd's play-out.

Hawks better than their 1st round opponent- 60% chance to win the series.

Hawks better than their 2nd round opponent -60% chance to win round 2 x 60% chance to win round 1 = 36% chance to go to WCF.

Hawks the same "quality" of team as 3rd round opponent - 50% chance to win round 3 = 36% chance x 50% chance = 18% chance to go to the SCF.

Hawks the same "quality" of team as SCF opponent - 50% chance to win the Cup = 18% chance to get there x 50% chance = 9% chance to win the Cup.

You can adjust the numbers, but I think they're pretty fair. In any case, expecting 2 more Cups is just ludicriously optimistic. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but with injuries and hot/cold goalies, anything can happen come play-off time, and the fan expectation should not be that even a very good team will win the Cup. There are just too many things can go wrong.

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Old
07-11-2013, 04:59 PM
  #89
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I like Hjammer, I always did but he is not part of "the core" and won't make or break our season

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07-12-2013, 01:17 AM
  #90
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Actually yes, and Iím not sure why you would even question it. Of course it was a team effort but his contribution was large. I suppose with his simple, non spectacular style, Hammer will always be underrated, but imo, when it comes to playing efficient defence, he is our best, and itís not really close.
The way he played all season long, would have to agree with this.

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07-14-2013, 01:44 AM
  #91
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you are saying Hammer is the reason we win the Cup? He'll make or break our seasons?
Scotty was right about him. That said continued excellence by other players will obviously be required to win more Cups.

Regarding dynasties I dismiss prudent, conservative handicapping. You never know when an historic run will occur. It would be fascinating to hear Chara's thoughts about the difference between Toews and Crosby.

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07-14-2013, 07:52 AM
  #92
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Let's just say I'll be ecstatic with 1 more.

In 2010, I said just win once and I'll be happy forever.

In 2013, I said once more, then I'm good.

Gotta just enjoy them for what they are. Can't be looking ahead to multiple championships when one is so hard to win.
This sums up my line of thinking perfectly. The 2nd Cup cements this team as a historic, all-time team. It will be rare if we ever see a dynasty again but rather certain teams will stand out for periods of time. Think back to the last 20 years and Detroit, Colorado, and New Jersey are the teams that stand out due to their multiple Cups. Chicago becomes one those team for this era with their 2nd Cup. The 2010 Cup followed by a couple 1st round exits was making this team nothing special but this Cup changes everything.

And if they could possibly get one more.....

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05-19-2014, 12:36 AM
  #93
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In my opinion, this was a pretty darned good thread.

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05-19-2014, 06:53 AM
  #94
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I'll say one more.

I keep thinking about the Pens, yeah, they've won one, but they seem like they're the favorite every year and haven't won in five years now.
The Pens are seldom the favourite, and certainly haven't been for some time. Not with Boston in the East.

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05-19-2014, 07:01 AM
  #95
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This sums up my line of thinking perfectly. The 2nd Cup cements this team as a historic, all-time team. It will be rare if we ever see a dynasty again but rather certain teams will stand out for periods of time. Think back to the last 20 years and Detroit, Colorado, and New Jersey are the teams that stand out due to their multiple Cups. Chicago becomes one those team for this era with their 2nd Cup. The 2010 Cup followed by a couple 1st round exits was making this team nothing special but this Cup changes everything.

And if they could possibly get one more.....
I think this is bang on. Chicago is the new Detroit.

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05-19-2014, 07:11 AM
  #96
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The Pens are seldom the favourite, and certainly haven't been for some time. Not with Boston in the East.
They're the favorites with the media, since the media doesn't really know hockey

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05-19-2014, 07:55 AM
  #97
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The best team I have ever seen prior to this team is the Detroit Red Wings 97, 98, 02. This team is better and younger than that team.

I set the line at a conservative 6.5 total Cups if Toews and Kane finish their careers here.


The Cup is the hardest trophy to win. The league is at an all time high in terms of parity (though as I've been saying the last 5 years, this is eroding away with the rising cap).

All of that said, this is a LEGENDARY team. Therefore, no rules apply. We are the favorites every single year and the only reason we might not win it every single year is the fact that it is so hard to win.

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05-19-2014, 08:44 AM
  #98
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With the current cup run and goaltending stepping up, its easy to pick the over 1.5. Goaltending was perhaps the largest wild card. 6.5 Cups is a lot. Id love to see it but in a cap era, its tough. Several core players will not be around. Depends how the Hawks are able to reload when the older core decides to hang them up. Detroit did a masterful job reloading. I can say that now since the Hawks have put Detroit behind them sans total record. This team is definitely built for an annual run to the cup with the current group. They can play a grinding game or a fast transition. Any way the opposition chooses to play.

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05-19-2014, 09:04 AM
  #99
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There is so much that goes into winning the Cup that the realist in me has to say under. If they finish off the Kings and then roll the Habs/Rangers victor and get 2 in a row and 3 in 5 years, it is an awesome feat in the most difficult sport. Here's to hoping I am way off and they are bringing home Lord Stanley many more times.

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05-19-2014, 09:09 AM
  #100
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With the current cup run and goaltending stepping up, its easy to pick the over 1.5. Goaltending was perhaps the largest wild card. 6.5 Cups is a lot. Id love to see it but in a cap era, its tough. Several core players will not be around. Depends how the Hawks are able to reload when the older core decides to hang them up. Detroit did a masterful job reloading. I can say that now since the Hawks have put Detroit behind them sans total record. This team is definitely built for an annual run to the cup with the current group. They can play a grinding game or a fast transition. Any way the opposition chooses to play.
Yeah, I guess you have to look at it in terms of Hossa and Sharp. As long as they hold up and play well, we are the favorites. Once they are gone, guys like TT and Saad will have to step up in a big way. They will probably never be as good as those two, but if they can come somewhat close, I think we can upgrade other pieces like Bollig and the bottom pairing D to help fill the overall void.

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