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Devan Dubnyk 12/13 Highlights

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Old
07-12-2013, 10:23 AM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
A lot of spectacular saves are the result of blunders or goalies scrambling from being out of position. That's what makes them spectacular.



His puck handling isn't great, it's true. Doesn't really change the fact he's at worst an average to above goalie in the league.
Spectacular effective play is responding well, even routinely, to the situation in front of you. A very good goalie makes a lot of plays look routine. An adventurous goalie makes a lot of routine plays look difficult.

Theres a difference.

Additionally you fail to consider the difference between a goalie having to make a brilliant save in response to a brilliant play in front of him vs a goalie turning a routine play into a desperate stop. I give more credit to the former as you should too.

I'll take effective everytime.

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07-12-2013, 10:42 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
meh.. same would be the case for missed shots and f-ups by Yak and Hall..
reel of Gagner and Eberle's defensive lapses would also be pretty long..

Dubnyk is fine for a starting goalie not costing us 5M+ .. Not a franchise goalie but should be good enough to keep us in 95% of the games he starts.
I would like to see those too.

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07-12-2013, 10:45 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Spectacular effective play is responding well, even routinely, to the situation in front of you. A very good goalie makes a lot of plays look routine. An adventurous goalie makes a lot of routine plays look difficult.

Theres a difference.
In this instance, I'll credit DD for staying with the play after it went sideways and battling back. And then I'd tie him to the post with a one-foot bungee cord.

Quote:
Additionally you fail to consider the difference between a goalie having to make a brilliant save in response to a brilliant play in front of him vs a goalie turning a routine play into a desperate stop. I give more credit to the former as you should too.
Of course I consider the difference. I simply don't see it as being particularly relevant.

Quote:
I'll take effective everytime.
Hmm yes, it's just a shame there's no way to measure how effective a goalie is. Like something looks at how many saves he make compared to how many shots he faces. Someone should really come up with a way to measure that. Oh well. Until then, I guess we'll have to rely on solid evidence like body language and our feelings.

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07-12-2013, 10:46 AM
  #29
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Great video. Nothing will silence the boo birds, including a Vezina or Stanley Cup. I'm a big Dubnyk fan and think he's going to have yet ANOTHER solid season.

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07-12-2013, 10:52 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Spectacular effective play is responding well, even routinely, to the situation in front of you. A very good goalie makes a lot of plays look routine. An adventurous goalie makes a lot of routine plays look difficult.

Theres a difference.

Additionally you fail to consider the difference between a goalie having to make a brilliant save in response to a brilliant play in front of him vs a goalie turning a routine play into a desperate stop. I give more credit to the former as you should too.

I'll take effective everytime.
I definitely agree with the bolded... and I'm a goalie, so I also get the magnified importance of making the *right save* at the *right time*.

But Dubnyk is kinda an interesting case study. People criticize him for his positioning (leading to dramatic saves) but that's actually not the problem. In fact his 1st save positioning is very, very strong. Along with his size, its his best asset. And his scramble is also very good for a large goalie.

Dubnyk's has three problems IMO:
1) Poor rebound control with his legs (he's actually very good up top, especially his 7-hole). He needs to use his stick more.
2) Very poor pro-fly edge work. For a butterfly goalie he should be much better at edging himself back into position while still down. He has the time, but his initial reaction is always to fling himself as though he were further out of position than he actually is. Once you leave your knees to dive, you are done like dinner if the 3rd shot comes.
3) Weak 5-hole. Most of his lemons are in the five hole... perhaps some new, less-blocking, more hybrid, pads would help.

To me #2 and #1 are very workable faults. Plenty of guys, in fact a whole generation, didn't even *learn* the profly until they were in the NHL. Roloson is a great example of a guy who adopted this style in his late twenties/early thirties.

If Dubnyk worked at his butterfly edging, he'd make much better use of his talents (size), become a better 2nd save guy and he could save the heroics for 3rd stops.

A guy with his rebound control and defensive core could certainly stand to add that to his repertoire (sp?).

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07-12-2013, 11:06 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose Coleman View Post
In this instance, I'll credit DD for staying with the play after it went sideways and battling back. And then I'd tie him to the post with a one-foot bungee cord.
lol, thanks for that. Battling is a fair point.


Quote:
Hmm yes, it's just a shame there's no way to measure how effective a goalie is. Like something looks at how many saves he make compared to how many shots he faces. Someone should really come up with a way to measure that. Oh well. Until then, I guess we'll have to rely on solid evidence like body language and our feelings.
Sorry, its an insufficient metric. You know that. It tells a limited story. Several other variables and factors are involved. Save percentage alone does not differentiate goalies.
For instance the Oilers give up a fair amount of shots shorthanded. But they have a reasonable pk and keep most plays to the outside. They tend to allow shots and in most instances (save for Smid) get out of screens way and allow a goalie a clear view.
Is this a good way to do it? Who knows? But it certainly results in more shots at net and more long shots at net.


Conversely a good club like the Blackhawks blocks everything, not even a question, block first strategy every shot from the point. They block everything. Completely different team strategies. Even this one variable could impact what stats look like. Countless variables like that exist in the complex game of hockey.

Comparing save % is apples to oranges and in a lot of cases arguably irrelevant. I certainly wouldn't base my opinion of a goalie on it.

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07-12-2013, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by bucks_oil View Post
I definitely agree with the bolded... and I'm a goalie, so I also get the magnified importance of making the *right save* at the *right time*.

But Dubnyk is kinda an interesting case study. People criticize him for his positioning (leading to dramatic saves) but that's actually not the problem. In fact his 1st save positioning is very, very strong. Along with his size, its his best asset. And his scramble is also very good for a large goalie.

Dubnyk's has three problems IMO:
1) Poor rebound control with his legs (he's actually very good up top, especially his 7-hole). He needs to use his stick more.
2) Very poor pro-fly edge work. For a butterfly goalie he should be much better at edging himself back into position while still down. He has the time, but his initial reaction is always to fling himself as though he were further out of position than he actually is. Once you leave your knees to dive, you are done like dinner if the 3rd shot comes.
3) Weak 5-hole. Most of his lemons are in the five hole... perhaps some new, less-blocking, more hybrid, pads would help.

To me #2 and #1 are very workable faults. Plenty of guys, in fact a whole generation, didn't even *learn* the profly until they were in the NHL. Roloson is a great example of a guy who adopted this style in his late twenties/early thirties.

If Dubnyk worked at his butterfly edging, he'd make much better use of his talents (size), become a better 2nd save guy and he could save the heroics for 3rd stops.

A guy with his rebound control and defensive core could certainly stand to add that to his repertoire (sp?).
Excellent post and worth the read.

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07-12-2013, 12:08 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Sorry, its an insufficient metric. You know that. It tells a limited story. Several other variables and factors are involved. Save percentage alone does not differentiate goalies.
Actually it is the best measure we have for individual goaltender performance.

Quote:
For instance the Oilers give up a fair amount of shots shorthanded. But they have a reasonable pk and keep most plays to the outside. They tend to allow shots and in most instances (save for Smid) get out of screens way and allow a goalie a clear view.
Is this a good way to do it? Who knows? But it certainly results in more shots at net and more long shots at net.

Conversely a good club like the Blackhawks blocks everything, not even a question, block first strategy every shot from the point. They block everything. Completely different team strategies. Even this one variable could impact what stats look like. Countless variables like that exist in the complex game of hockey.

Comparing save % is apples to oranges and in a lot of cases arguably irrelevant. I certainly wouldn't base my opinion of a goalie on it
This makes no sense. Like, none. What bearing does shots that don't make it through have on a goalie's performance?

Regardless of how many shots a team gives up, the goalie still has to stop them. What else would you evaluate them on?

By the way, you're also dead wrong on the blocking thing. Chicago blocked a significantly fewer number of shots than Edmonton in total. NHL.com doesn't break them down by situation, but it's a big enough gap (more than 100 shots) that the difference can't be accounted for just by 5 on 5.

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07-12-2013, 12:19 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Spectacular effective play is responding well, even routinely, to the situation in front of you. A very good goalie makes a lot of plays look routine.
Which would probably be why there are so few "highlights" in this reel. A goalie's highlight reel is usually a collection of great efforts to recover from mistakes/poor positioning/lack of rebound control. No one would make a highlight reel of a goalie's hundreds of difficult yet apparently simple stops.

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07-12-2013, 12:52 PM
  #35
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Most people seem to not understand how good Dubnyk is. 920 save percentage. What place were we in the league for shots against? What where would you rank our defensive unit? And our team as a whole? Seriously. He's doing pretty damn good considering what he's got in front of him. Hopefully Ference will help in that area, and Petry hopefully continuing to improve.

Average or slightly above average. I'm happy with Duby

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07-12-2013, 01:03 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Spectacular effective play is responding well, even routinely, to the situation in front of you. A very good goalie makes a lot of plays look routine. An adventurous goalie makes a lot of routine plays look difficult.

Theres a difference.

Additionally you fail to consider the difference between a goalie having to make a brilliant save in response to a brilliant play in front of him vs a goalie turning a routine play into a desperate stop. I give more credit to the former as you should too.

I'll take effective everytime.

.920 sv% is pretty effective wouldn't you say?

what does it matter how the puck gets stopped? one of the greatest goalies to ever play the game, dominic hasek, played an extremely desperate style of goaltending, but it worked for him.

it's like critisizing smyth back in his heyday for only scoring garbage goals, saying he should have more scored in a more routine fashion ie, one-timers, cross-crease passes or hard-wristers from the slot.

it matters not how the goals went in as long as they went in, the same is true for dubnyk in stopping the puck.

a .920 sv% while facing the second most shots in the NHL, with arguably the worst defense in the NHL in front of him, says he is stopping the puck, no matter how much you think he's stopping the puck the "wrong way"

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07-12-2013, 02:34 PM
  #37
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Awesome highlight package!

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07-12-2013, 02:37 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
That one sucks up too much bandwidth..


ps Hilarious that 20 secs of the video is 5 different replays of a routine hard dump in that is obviously meant to bounce from the backboards and Dubs gets sucked into chasing it behind the net and then having to dive back into the net desperately. This is otherwise known as a routine situation for any goalie properly recognizing what to do in that instance. For anybody to put this specific play on a hilite reel and then feature it is obviously not noting the screw up in judgement that preceeds the save.

I would say ironic in a way because one has to love Dubnyk bloopers to love Dubnyk.


Just seen your lovely post now.

First off, get over yourself. To question my judgement on a save that is definitely worthy of being considered a hightlight is laughable (tsn, sportsnet, etc all seemed to agree that it was indeed a highlight as well at the time). Especially in a DEVAN DUBNYK HIGHLIGHT VID. Highlight videos don't discard certain plays because of what lead up to that highlight occuring.
Secondly, it was shown 3 times in the video, not 5. My 3 year old nephew can recognize the difference between 3 and 5. With your superior intellect, this should've been easy to notice.
Thirdly, why did you even push play? Your hate for Dubey is enjoyable to read.


Last edited by 488fitter: 07-12-2013 at 02:45 PM.
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07-12-2013, 02:39 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by OilCountry84 View Post


Just seen your lovely post now.

First off, get over yourself. To question my judgement on a save that is definitely worthy of being considered a hightlight is laughable (tsn, sportsnet, etc all seemed to agree that it was indeed a highlight as well at the time). Especially in a DEVAN DUBNYK HIGHLIGHT VID.
Secondly, it was shown 3 times in the video, not 5. My 3 year old nepwhew can recognize the difference between 3 and 5. With your superior intellect, this should've been easy to notice.
Thirdly, why did you even push play? Your hate for Dubey is enjoyable to read.
Don't waste your energy moving your fingers on a keyboard to reply to people filled with such negativity.

Most of us here love he videos. Keep them up!

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07-12-2013, 02:40 PM
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Blatant ripoff of this awesome RNH highlight video (Starts at 0:45):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=819zPWy6Rt0
I fail to see how this is a blatant ripoff of that "awesome" RNH vid, if you would like to explain further...

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07-12-2013, 02:44 PM
  #41
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I'm going to chime in again, hopefully as peacemaker.... I think you guys are both going to extremes to make your point.

Replacment: ' I wouldn't use SPCT to judge a goalie', should probably be rephrased to be "I wouldn't *only* use SPCT to judge a goalie, you need to use your eyes as well".

Pro-Dubnyk Guys: "SPCT put him at exactly Xth place in the league, therefore he's the Xth best goalie"... also way too simplistic.

Consider these points:
1) Team psychology point 1: I think anyone who has played the game know that there is a different team reaction to a *bad* goal vs an *unstoppable* goal, regardless of how it affects one's SPCT. It is an emotional game and having a goalie that makes the expected saves on low quality chances matters.

2) Team psychology point 2: Teams get a boost from a guy that is always making it look easy... they play at ease, don't "go fishing" on their checks to prevent every shot... angle the players outside, allow the easy shots to come, knowing the goalie will swallow it up (Holdit Holtby). In contrast, a team can get a huge boost from a 9-bell save. (Cujo-Marchant) Both can work... but it should be clear a goalie's demeanor changes the psychology of his team

3) Mathematically there is very little difference between 0.885 and 0.920 SPCT..... it amounts to about 1 goal per game assuming 35 shots.. BUT... the difference is much less than say, kicking out 4-5 fat juicy rebounds during a game, now all of a sudden you have 39 shots against because YOU CREATED 4 more. FACT: Your SPCT on those 4 fat juicy rebounds is ALWAYS going to be less than the 4 shots that created them... think 50%, so that's 2 goals. What's worse... another goalie (or even YOU if you were on your game) wouldn't have to face those VERY DIFFICULT 2nd shots AT ALL, because they knifed the first one into the netting or swallowed it for a faceoff.

4) Timing: SPCT could be WAY more useful if there was a context. How about SPCT when the score is within 1? SPCT in the third period of a close game? or the last 2 mins? SPCT in the first 10 mins of a game? etc... All of these are relevant times when a team needs their goalie to play their best. These are the moments that win and lose games.

Anyway... I think Dubnyk's SPCT tells us there is plenty of talent there to work with. But to my eye, it was not a dominating .920 type of year. I'd sooner have Grant Fuhr and his 0.885 "money" goaltending because he got BETTER when the game was close or on the line. I'm not sure I can say the same about Dubnyk (yet).

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07-12-2013, 02:51 PM
  #42
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Dubnyk should've just let that puck in so that a desperation save wouldn't have ended up in his hilite reel.

I'm not even convinced Dubnyk lets in that many bad goals, to my eye he lets in about as many as any goalie that has played here since Curtis Joseph. And we see quite a few "soft" goals scored on opposing goalies throughout the year, so I wonder how realistic our expectations are of Dubnyk.

Some people here call a shot from a wide open guy in the slot a soft goal. Frankly I'll trust the stats on this one, and until Dubnyk puts up below average numbers, I'll consider him a good goalie.

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07-12-2013, 02:57 PM
  #43
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.920 sv% is pretty effective wouldn't you say?

what does it matter how the puck gets stopped? one of the greatest goalies to ever play the game, dominic hasek, played an extremely desperate style of goaltending, but it worked for him.

it's like critisizing smyth back in his heyday for only scoring garbage goals, saying he should have more scored in a more routine fashion ie, one-timers, cross-crease passes or hard-wristers from the slot.

it matters not how the goals went in as long as they went in, the same is true for dubnyk in stopping the puck.

a .920 sv% while facing the second most shots in the NHL, with arguably the worst defense in the NHL in front of him, says he is stopping the puck, no matter how much you think he's stopping the puck the "wrong way"
Look... Hasek is my fave goalie of all time. But what you need to realize is that despite what he looked like he was not in "desperation mode". The guy thought like a hockey puck. Most goalies are taught either to i) be in solid position covering as much net and letting the reflexes to the rest, or if their coach was a little more enlightened to ii) cut down angles so the shooter sees less of the net.

Hasek didn't care what the shooter could see. He cared *what the puck could see*.
Classic example: Standard hybrid style = slide across the net with pad out and glove above pad... on one knee with body upright.
Hasek style (now adopted/adapted by many) = slide accross with your leg extended, but deliberately fall forward with your upper body... get your glove as close to the puck as possible.
WHY? The player can now see way more of the net, but the puck can only go two places, along the ice into the pad or into his glove.

My point, if I am making one, is that Hasak was a master of angles, a master of anticipation and a visionary in the way that he viewed the probabilities of making a save.

In contrast, Cujo, at that same time was a desperation goalie because his timing and angles were poor (but his anticipation and reflexes covered for it). If the puck was passed quickly to the left side of the net, you could almost be 100% sure that Cujo would overcommit, get himself leaning way onto his left and the puck would go low stickside on the right. (I'm sure many would remember the Cujo "lean")

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07-12-2013, 03:23 PM
  #44
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Yo, cool. This where all the Dubnyk haters hang out? Awesome, awesome. Kinda chilly in here. Anyway, just thought I'd pop in and say a little something quick into the mic.

.920 SV% BYOTCHEZZZ!!

Right...SV % is everything. Soft, inopportune, morale crushing goals aren't counted. Love stats guys.

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07-12-2013, 03:27 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by bucks_oil View Post
I definitely agree with the bolded... and I'm a goalie, so I also get the magnified importance of making the *right save* at the *right time*.

But Dubnyk is kinda an interesting case study. People criticize him for his positioning (leading to dramatic saves) but that's actually not the problem. In fact his 1st save positioning is very, very strong. Along with his size, its his best asset. And his scramble is also very good for a large goalie.

Dubnyk's has three problems IMO:
1) Poor rebound control with his legs (he's actually very good up top, especially his 7-hole). He needs to use his stick more.
2) Very poor pro-fly edge work. For a butterfly goalie he should be much better at edging himself back into position while still down. He has the time, but his initial reaction is always to fling himself as though he were further out of position than he actually is. Once you leave your knees to dive, you are done like dinner if the 3rd shot comes.
3) Weak 5-hole. Most of his lemons are in the five hole... perhaps some new, less-blocking, more hybrid, pads would help.

To me #2 and #1 are very workable faults. Plenty of guys, in fact a whole generation, didn't even *learn* the profly until they were in the NHL. Roloson is a great example of a guy who adopted this style in his late twenties/early thirties.

If Dubnyk worked at his butterfly edging, he'd make much better use of his talents (size), become a better 2nd save guy and he could save the heroics for 3rd stops.

A guy with his rebound control and defensive core could certainly stand to add that to his repertoire (sp?).
Nicely put, I agree on all points.

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07-12-2013, 03:40 PM
  #46
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Right...SV % is everything. Soft, inopportune, morale crushing goals aren't counted. Love stats guys.
Stats are actual, tangible things. Bolded is not.
How is a tough given up goal any less morale crushing than a "soft, inopportune" one?

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07-12-2013, 03:48 PM
  #47
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Stats are actual, tangible things. Bolded is not.
How is a tough given up goal any less morale crushing than a "soft, inopportune" one?
Right, how can we value the big saves he made too? You can't. Not a fan of stats when looking at goalies, unless of course the goalie is absolutely carrying a team such as Bob was in CBJ last year.

One thing I know, and his biggest knock is the weak goals he lets in when we needed him most. Why else would fans be so soured on Dubnyk? It's not like we hate him because he's tall, but his inability to come up big when we needed him the most.

Explains why confidence in him is shaken from management, Mac T's comments and the fact that Khabby was playing more games than he should have until he got injured over the past few years.

Would you want him in a game 7 playoffs? he's just not mentally capable. This is his make or break year, and if not, we're chasing a number one next summer.

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07-12-2013, 03:52 PM
  #48
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I don't know that the fans are soured on Dubnyk. It's almost 50/50 around here. Dubnyk has better than average #'s for a starting goalie, putting a better team in front of him would take him from looking like an average goalie to a decent starter.

If he wasn't having to stop 35-40 shots on a nightly basis maybe he wouldn't have as many gaffs.

I'm fine with Dubnyk until something genuinely better comes along, but I'm not in favour of breaking the bank to do it. I just wish he'd stop trying to play the puck as much, that IMO is his biggest weakness.

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07-12-2013, 04:04 PM
  #49
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Good posts bucks oil. Sums up my thoughts on Dubnyk much better than I could have. It's hard to know the technicalities of goaltending unless you've played it your entire life.

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07-12-2013, 04:35 PM
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My Thoughts On Devan Dubnyk:


He is Tommy Salo

When we finally trade Dubnyk, it should be done when he is still good so we can get more than Gilbert + a pick back.

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