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Erik Condra Re-Signs [2 Years, 1.25M AAV]

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Old
07-12-2013, 09:50 PM
  #76
Sens Rule
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Originally Posted by Bruiser View Post
See, this is a valid position and a possibly strong rebuttal to my argument. Thank you for creating a logical argument rather than simply stating your opinion as a refutation to my position.

I think the two debatable areas of my position are whether our prospects are developed enough to take on a full time bottom six role and whether Condra can improve his game by a significant margin.

I personally am not fully convinced that Condra has much room to grow. Yes he is only entering his third full season in the NHL, but at his age can he really make anything more than a marginal improvement? It is pretty rare to find players around his age make any drastic improvements in play throughout their careers. If Condra was 22 or 23 then I believe that this would be a much stronger position.

If Condra can only make marginal improvements in his game and some or many of our prospects make large improvements, then Condra could be moved as soon as this season. I think the two players that are most likely to push Condra out of a roster spot are Mark Stone and Curtis Lazar. Both players are strong defensively, above average penalty killers and can be effective in both a top six or bottom six role. If either makes the team, then they will likely push Neil down to the 4th line RW spot and push Condra out of a RW spot. In that case Condra will be pushed to LW where he will likely be competing with Conacher and Greening. I think Condra would have a difficult time out competing either player for a roster spot.
I actually agree with you. Except having Condra signed does not worry me. If truly Erik Condra is our 13th best forward and everyone is healthy and he is scratched, I will be such a happy Sens fan because it will mean we have an amazing top 12. It could happen too. If it does I would still keep Condra until the end of the season anyway. You will have injuries and Condra is a proven effective 12-14 min NHL winger.

Condra and Greening earned their spots beside Spezza at the end of 10/11. Only 1 game missed between the two since then. Greening a healthy scratch one game when Maclean sent him a message to play smarter. Those are earned spots. Pageau earned his spot. 2 years we wanted another centre. We got him. He literally earned his spot every game and every shift. Condra and Greening have done it every day since they joined the lineup. We have all seen the useless Colin Forbes, Brandon Bochenski, Stephan Da Costa etc players that have come through Ottawa (and all 29 other teams). Condra is definitely NOT one of those guys. His contract is fine. He will be in the NHL 5 years from now somewhere, playing 12-15 mins a night. In my opinion. So will Greening and Pageau and Smith. They are not risky signings. They are NHLers. If they get pushed out of our lineup it will be because we have a SICK team.... Or they sign expensive contracts. $1.2 M $1.877M... Not expensive or a problem. I would LOVE for Condra to not be good enough to play in out top 12. That is not the case now. If he is not in our Top 12 I guarantee it is not because Condra declines or isn't playing well enough. It will be because someone comes along and plays like Silfverberg, Zibanejad or Pageau did last year. Not to save a couple of hundred thousand dollars in salary, but through sheer performance is the only way Condra should lose his spot. If we have 8 better wingers he is an excellent 13th forward. If he goes below 13th he is easily traded for a mid round pick. Many teams need a stabilizing reliable defensive winger who is a top PKer, is smart and works hard and can chip in 20 points. He could get a mid round pick.

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07-12-2013, 09:52 PM
  #77
Ed Wood
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Originally Posted by MiscBrah View Post
The point your missing is that even if Condra doesn't improve, he's still a solid NHL player that is excellent on the PK. Mark Stone has 4 NHL games and Lazar has zero professional games.

How can you say that those players are going to push one of the best PKers in the league out of a spot? We don't even know if those players can play on an NHL team, much less lead a PK unit to the top of the league standings.

Why do we need to trade a player who comes at a great price that we need on our team? I don't understand the reasoning. We've developed a player through the Sens system into a elite PKer. He scored 7 points in the players FFS.

Stone and Lazar don't need to be on the Sens roster next season. Nothing wrong with them playing in the AHL and the OHL. Stone can and will be used as a call-up.

You don't develop a player into what you want, sign him for the price you want, then trade him. what the **** do we even need to add?

:

Can't argue with this. I actually thought he'd get at least 1.5 per after his strong playoff.

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07-12-2013, 10:37 PM
  #78
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This is why I hate HF boards sometimes. Just because a guy is 24-25, people want him gone or are already replacing him on their fantasy rosters. Gryba, Condra, Greening they suffer from what I call "Prospectitis" everyone wants something new and shiny to replace them. Never mind the fact that they're in the prime of their careers for the next 5-7 years.

In my opinion, new and shiny sucks. I believe that players get better as they age into their 30's, in fact, I think the vast majority of players who haven't suffered major injury concerns are at their BEST in their late 20's and early 30's. I know there's a chart out there that suggests players decline after 25, but I have some serious questions the methodology of that chart, namely:

1. Scoring rates and eras. Many of the players studied played their youngest years in different leagues (WHA), rules (NHL 1980's), and in eras of scoring rates (early 90's vs. late 90's). This issue skews the younger numbers higher in my opinion. Players who have played in their 40s (now) played three lockouts ago, before the trap, and before the Berlin wall fell. I think that any scoring stats should be normalized for the era and players scoring rates should be compared against the league average, not the points they put up later in their careers.

2. The league itself. Very few "bad" young NHL players ever even play in the NHL which skews the stats higher. No one plays a bad 18 year old NHLer. Good players at age 18-19-20 are doing well in the NHL and scoring at a high rate or they're sent back to Junior. Very few young players are kept in the NHL when they're struggling, there's no incentive to do so. Young guys struggling in the NHL are a HUGE exception, and without "bad" players to even out the results, it again skews the numbers higher.

Basically, the whole thing is rigged. With that in mind, I'll use older Sens and former Sens as examples of what I mean by players getting better as they age....

Todd White's best offensive season came at age 35.
Alfredsson didn't score 100+ points until he was 33.
Chara didn't win the Norris until he was 32. All of his best seasons came AFTER his 30th.
Fisher had his two best offensive seasons at 30 and 32 when he finally stopped playing like a maniac.
Hossa's best seasons were at 27 and 28 not 22.
Chris Kelly didn't score 20 goals until he was 31, his best season and he could still improve, IMO.
Schaefer? 29 and 30 respectively. Good example for Condra, IMO.
Hasek turned on beast mode at 29 and remained in beast mode throughout the next decade +
Anderson is having his best seasons in his 30's and next season could be his best.
Corvo? All of his best seasons (with one exception at 27) have all happened since he turned 30
Phillips? His best at 29 and still going. He's been pretty consistent his whole career.
Kuba? His best at 32 and not likely to keep going.
MacEachern? Best three seasons were at 30, 31, and 32
Lalime was 27 and 29 for his best years ...but goalies don't usually enter the NHL until VERY late. So this is almost an argument the other way.
Sami Salo? 31 and 32.
Prospal? 31.
Havlat was 28 when he had his best season. Injuries have decimated him so I don't know if it helps or hurts the argument.
Van Allen had his best seasons at...27 and 36...weird.
Jason York didn't break into the NHL until he was 26 and put up his best season (35 points) when he was 29.
Jason Smith didn't make it until he was 23 and had his best seasons at 28, 29, and 31.
Igor Kravchuk come over when the Berlin wall fell and put up 50 points at age 28 on the Oilers and then put up 35 points at 32 playing for Ottawa.
Andre Roy somehow put up 17 points at age 28. He somehow managed to have a 500 game NHL career. I forgot about him.
Arvedson had his big season as a sophomore (47 points) aged 28. Weird.
Shane Hnidy (bet you forgot about him) broke into the Ottawa roster at age 26 and had his best season at age 35.
Vermette is still going, but so far his best season came at 28.


On the other hand, some players did peak earlier so I have to be fair.

Heatley peaked at 25-26
Neil was 25-26 but he's had one of his best at 33. Could go either way, IMO.
Bonk was in his mid 20's and never reached those heights again.
Joe Juneau was a monster at 25 and simply regressed. I don't know much about him.
Jody Hull actually peaked at 24 or 27 depending on your opinion. Weird career.
Ol' Curtis Leschyshyn had his best season at 24 and never really got back there offensively. Good d-man though as he got older.
Bill Muckalt bust onto the scene at 25 with a great rookie season and then...yeah. Someone should introduce him to Peter Regin.


I'm sure I forgot a lot of guys, but I tried to focus on players who have retired or have played teh vast majority of their careers.

Others:

Yashin I didn't include because although his best NHL seasons came when he was in his mid 20's....he's arguably played some of his best hockey in his 30's, just not in the NHL. Same for Karel Rachunek, he played great in his early 20's in the NHL but played some of his best hockey in the KHL before dying tragically.

Schastlivy only ever played 129 total NHL games, so he was hard to judge.

Smolinski? His best season was on the Penguins at 25. A close second best happened again at 30 though. He also got better defensively as he aged, so although his best offensive season was at 25 I think he was a better player in his 30's.

Volchenkov was at his best earlier in his 20's but he has gone downhill rapidly. Based on some of the players on this list, I think it's still too early to say he's done. Especially when he only needs to top 19 points.


I'm tired now, but I think I made my point. Most guys play better closer to 30 than 20 and we can't assume we've seen the best of someone at 24, we actually might nto see it till 34.

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Old
07-12-2013, 11:22 PM
  #79
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haha this reminds me when I was defending Chris Kelly's contract (2.1 IIRC) for what he brought to the table... Although a lot more people were outraged by the contract (term and money)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruiser View Post
All he is is an above average penalty killer. He is a dime-a-dozen player just like Regin, Winchester and Shannon. Two years is a bad contract, he is basically just taking up a roster spot that could be better filled by one of our prospects. If he lasts in Ottawa the full two years it is either due to our prospects not progressing very much or simply poor asset management.
I think you're complaining for nothing Bruiser... Condra is like a younger Chris Kelly in development... That kind of player is very valuable, hockey IQ is through the roof and he does so many of those "little things" coaches need. He helps our puck possession and can even produce decently despite playing on grinding lines with no PP (career average : 25 pts per 82 games, 8 pts in 17 NHL playoff games, 7 in 10 last year!)

He looks like a clutch player in the playoffs... 17 pts in 23 games with the B-Sens in the Calder Cup year.

1.2 / 64.3 = 1.86%

That's nothing. 2 years is not very long...

Regin had more potential but Condra seems more durable and is more efficient at the NHL level because of it. Shannon has skill but is a midget, way too light. Winchester was a solid depth player (despite different) before concussion problems...

We're not talking about a star/key player, but that kind of player is important when you have them as your 10-13th best forward

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bruiser View Post
Chris Neil. There aren't many players in the league or close to making the NHL that can put up 30 points, be near the league lead in hits, agitate, fight heavyweights and goad more skilled players into fighting, fight for the right reasons and not hurt their team, know exactly when the team needs a momentum shift and go out and execute, play on the power play, drive the net hard and have leadership skill which are well recognized by the coaches and management.
Chris Neil is a very different player and brings a rare physical element, but you can't have 4 Chris Neil in your bottom 10-13 forwards. Neil also makes much more coin (almost twice as much) and is usually signed for longer than Condra types.

I also think teams make room for prospects when they force them to make them. We had like 8 rookies last year. Let's be happy if there's 2 or 3 this year.

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Old
07-12-2013, 11:28 PM
  #80
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What I like about Condra is his consistency and reliability. It is a very long season and he brings it game after game.

With Alfie gone, the Sens lose a top PK'er, and Condra will be more important than ever in that role.

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Old
07-12-2013, 11:29 PM
  #81
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Lazar and Stone are not replacing Condra. Not in the next two years at least.

Lazar is at minimum a year away from the bigs. Stone is a completely different player than Condra. He doesn't touch him in terms of skating or penalty killing. Stone replaces someone in the top 6, not bottom 6.

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07-12-2013, 11:59 PM
  #82
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I think there is a slim but real chance Lazar makes the team this season. And a not insignificant one that he makes the team next year. He might not. But if he earns the spot in a 9 game try out then that is awesome. Because Lazar is not intended to play in the NHL this season, unless he really, really shows he deserves it and is ready.

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07-13-2013, 12:32 AM
  #83
MiscBrah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sens Rule View Post
I think there is a slim but real chance Lazar makes the team this season. And a not insignificant one that he makes the team next year. He might not. But if he earns the spot in a 9 game try out then that is awesome. Because Lazar is not intended to play in the NHL this season, unless he really, really shows he deserves it and is ready.
this has literally nothing to do with the discussion.

P.S. he's not making the team.

Jesus christ some of you guys get so obsessed with draft picks it's ****ing weird. I wish they didn't hype the draft up so much, makes every team think they just drafted the next franchise player. I know the media wants to get people excited about the future, and we should be, but the emphasis is on the FUTURE. Let these players mature, they'll all get their shot eventually.

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07-13-2013, 12:37 AM
  #84
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Condra is an important asset on the team. You don't see the great contenders Boston so eager to trade away 29 year old 25 point Daniel Paille.

Guys like this win you playoff games. Boston won primarily against NYR cause of their fourth line.

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07-13-2013, 01:13 AM
  #85
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Great deal. Cheaper than what I predicted.

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07-13-2013, 01:28 AM
  #86
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This is a great deal, glad it got done. I thought he was maybe holding out for too much money, but the fact that this contract is so good tells me that Murray was just trying to low-ball him

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07-13-2013, 02:30 AM
  #87
Vesa Awesaka
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Quote:
Originally Posted by All Alfie View Post
What I like about Condra is his consistency and reliability. It is a very long season and he brings it game after game.

With Alfie gone, the Sens lose a top PK'er, and Condra will be more important than ever in that role.
Condra's skill set is replaceable but he is very consistent . I dont really see the point in letting him go and seeing if maybe one of our prospects can take over his defensive role . I also think Condra fits into PM's system well and he's done everything he's been asked to do in his role . I might sound crazy but i'd like to see him in more positions to succeed offensively . Maybe take a few more offensive draw and get some pp time. It cant be denied that he does get or create alot of chance when hes on the ice.

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Old
07-13-2013, 05:43 AM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vesa Awesaka View Post
Condra's skill set is replaceable but he is very consistent . I dont really see the point in letting him go and seeing if maybe one of our prospects can take over his defensive role . I also think Condra fits into PM's system well and he's done everything he's been asked to do in his role . I might sound crazy but i'd like to see him in more positions to succeed offensively . Maybe take a few more offensive draw and get some pp time. It cant be denied that he does get or create alot of chance when hes on the ice.
Your solution is Pageau. Condra thinks the game at such a high level and so does Pageau, those two just click and you can see the sum of 7 points in 10 games by Condra as a result.

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07-13-2013, 06:44 AM
  #89
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Fair price for a 4th liner and PK guy.

Terms not bad too... In two years he can walk when the youth is ready to step in.

Decent stop gap for now

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Old
07-13-2013, 06:50 AM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caeldan View Post
Condra is our Chris Kelly 2.0
He will be undervalued by the fan base, but there really isn't a ton of easy replacements for what he brings to the table. The coach needs to have a safe reliable defensive forward to rely on at times.
Kelly was my fav Sen, I don't see it.
My thoughts on Kelly in 2007
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...d.php?t=420764

I could not make the same thread about Condra today

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Old
07-13-2013, 07:18 AM
  #91
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Yes !!
good signing i like Condra a lot

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Old
07-13-2013, 08:26 AM
  #92
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I like Condra but I figured Pageau made him expendable. Pageau does all the things he does with a little less size but with more speed, he's above average in faceoffs and the kid can find the back of the net.

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07-13-2013, 10:52 AM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StayThirstyMyFriend View Post
I like Condra but I figured Pageau made him expendable. Pageau does all the things he does with a little less size but with more speed, he's above average in faceoffs and the kid can find the back of the net.
I would hope that the centre would be better at faceoffs than the winger.

And you can make a good argument that some of Pageau's success is directly related to him playing with Condra since they were matched up for pretty much all of Pageau's time in the NHL so far.

The stats bear out that most players on the Sens are better when they have Condra on their wing than they are without him (because he drives possession so well and the line has the puck a lot more than they don't on his shifts).

The only thing holding Condra back is his crappy shooting percentage and it's too bad that this is the only thing that most Sens fans choose to focus on since it's clear that Sens management, coaches and his teammates see where Condra's true value is.

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07-13-2013, 10:59 AM
  #94
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Hasek was blocked by Belfour, never really got a shot until traded to Buffalo.

Juneau got his head bashed in and was never the same after.

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