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Old
07-13-2013, 09:59 AM
  #951
BigFatCat999
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Did the projections for goals based on 75 game slant. (G*1.63)



I have a projection of 220-230 goals for this team.

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07-13-2013, 10:11 AM
  #952
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The biggest difference this year will be Housley coaching our PP. Our PP sucked last year as we could have scored so many more goals if we weren't so inept. Injuries had a lot to do with it but we couldn't even stay in the offensive zone to even try a shot let alone score. Cullen, Jones, Forsberg, and Stalberg will hopefully help our PP. If we can just be average with our PP we will win a lot more games.

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07-13-2013, 10:16 AM
  #953
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Wow, Beck scores 3 goals and 4 assist in his first 7 NHL games, but your projecting he only has 5 goals and 6 assist in his next 75? I don't follow that logic.

If your projections are correct, we're picking in the top 4 again. 185 goals would be the 2nd lowest goal total for us in our history. Even as much as we sucked last season, we still would have finished at a prorated 190 goals.

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07-13-2013, 10:42 AM
  #954
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
Wow, Beck scores 3 goals and 4 assist in his first 7 NHL games, but your projecting he only has 5 goals and 6 assist in his next 75? I don't follow that logic.

If your projections are correct, we're picking in the top 4 again. 185 goals would be the 2nd lowest goal total for us in our history. Even as much as we sucked last season, we still would have finished at a prorated 190 goals.
You missed statistical notes in the stats and you saw what you wanted to see.

a) that is a simplistic projection of season end stats. Hornqvist if healthy is not going to score 7 goals. Beck only provided a minimal number of games, if anything he should be a ? He could be a 20 goal scorer, or he could have a sophomore slump.

b) this is a projection for 75 games. which gives some wiggle room for goals. Some players ended their season early to heal. Some were early call ups.

c) We have too many ?'s Forsberg, Jones, Ekholm, hell Beck.

When I said I project 220-230 goals that 185 is the start the rest has to be filled in with educated observation

185 goals

Plus, expected increase of 15 goals from a healthy Hornqvist. I think 22 goals from Hornqvist is reasonable.

200 goals

Now we look at the 3 defensemen, Jones, Ekholm, Bartley. All null sets because there isn't enough statistical data. I go conservative with these 3 and go with a combined 10 goals. Could I see more? of course. Housley is drooling about putting Jones with Weber on the PP.

210 goals

Now comes the Forsberg question. My question is this can he score 15 goals? Way coaching is talking about him, yes.

225 goals

I like to think that's a reasonable explanation of the goals.

What will hurt this is if Spaling leaves the team. There goes 15 goals which leads to my question of can Beck replace Spaling. If he can great. But it kills the depth in Milwaukee unless Watson fills out.

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07-13-2013, 01:43 PM
  #955
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Beck was on pace to score 10 goals over 53 games. There's no way he scores just 7 this year, even if teams have a full training camp to prep for the season. I would be really shocked if he didn't break 10, and I think he could break 15.

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07-13-2013, 02:01 PM
  #956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by worstfaceoffmanever View Post
Beck was on pace to score 10 goals over 53 games. There's no way he scores just 7 this year, even if teams have a full training camp to prep for the season. I would be really shocked if he didn't break 10, and I think he could break 15.
And I wouldn't be shocked if he gets nailed by sophomore slump. I wouldn't be surprised if he rotates with Watson and Budish.

And I might just go nuts if we don't see some real action soon!

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07-13-2013, 02:06 PM
  #957
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nothing can be done now but I was just a little surprised when I was listening to sirius XM, nhl network and it was a show called the Power Play and the other day when Blum officially signed with MIN they said well now we have to apologize for saying that EDM had traded Smid to NSH for Blum, because it isn't true.

So that tells me that we had that trade in place and it fell through but was very close to fruition. That to me, woulda been a very nice steal for us.

Sad to see it didn't work out. Kinda blew my mind though.

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Old
07-13-2013, 02:07 PM
  #958
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Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
And I wouldn't be shocked if he gets nailed by sophomore slump.
It's really hard to have a sophomore slump when you're technically still a rookie. Beck only played 16 games last year; a player needs to play 26 in a given season to lose his rookie status the following year.

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07-13-2013, 02:31 PM
  #959
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Quote:
Originally Posted by worstfaceoffmanever View Post
It's really hard to have a sophomore slump when you're technically still a rookie. Beck only played 16 games last year; a player needs to play 26 in a given season to lose his rookie status the following year.
Slumps don't give a **** about how many games you play.

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Old
07-13-2013, 04:49 PM
  #960
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He's saying it couldn't be a "sophomore" slump in his rookie season, it could be a slump, or a rookie slump but not a sophomore slump.

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07-13-2013, 05:46 PM
  #961
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You guys are splitting hairs over semantics... The 'sophomore slump' is not that technical of a term. It simply means the slump after the initial adrenalin of being called up wears off. That can most definitely begin to happen in a rookie year.

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07-13-2013, 07:31 PM
  #962
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How about we just hope he doesn't slump at all? Seems like the best route to take to me

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07-13-2013, 07:57 PM
  #963
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How about we just hope he doesn't slump at all? Seems like the best route to take to me
Gabby Bourque can show him how it's done

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Old
07-13-2013, 11:56 PM
  #964
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
He's saying it couldn't be a "sophomore" slump in his rookie season, it could be a slump, or a rookie slump but not a sophomore slump.
My main point with that is that Beck has not established himself as an NHL player and isn't really sure where he's going next. That's typically when the "slumping" happens (also where the concept of the "difficult second album" comes from). Beck still has to work to reach the NHL full-time, and not having a ready-made roster spot for him means he's going to work hard to get here and work even harder to stay here. Bourque is a great example of that.

My tangential point is that alliteration is stupid and annoying and should be beaten with a crowbar wherever possible.

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Old
07-14-2013, 12:12 AM
  #965
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Quote:
Originally Posted by worstfaceoffmanever View Post
My main point with that is that Beck has not established himself as an NHL player and isn't really sure where he's going next. That's typically when the "slumping" happens (also where the concept of the "difficult second album" comes from). Beck still has to work to reach the NHL full-time, and not having a ready-made roster spot for him means he's going to work hard to get here and work even harder to stay here. Bourque is a great example of that.

My tangential point is that alliteration is stupid and annoying and should be beaten with a crowbar wherever possible.
Agreed, alliteration always adds acrimony... am against all

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Old
07-17-2013, 10:46 AM
  #966
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http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/0...d-free-agents/

Interesting....

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Old
07-17-2013, 01:03 PM
  #967
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I know we have way too many forwards at the moment, but it would be nice to add Gilbert Brule on a cheap 1-year deal. He seems like he would fit the Predator mold, and heck, he's a center.

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07-17-2013, 02:03 PM
  #968
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I know we have way too many forwards at the moment, but it would be nice to add Gilbert Brule on a cheap 1-year deal. He seems like he would fit the Predator mold, and heck, he's a center.
Brule isn't the answer by any means. Didn't he play in the KHL last season? I owuld think he will stay there.

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Old
07-20-2013, 01:15 PM
  #969
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Apparently Gagner wants $5.5. No thank you.

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Old
07-20-2013, 03:44 PM
  #970
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Apparently Gagner wants $5.5. No thank you.
And the Oilers want to pay him 3.5 mil

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Old
07-20-2013, 03:59 PM
  #971
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Gagne at 5.5 is about 1M too much. I expect the ruling to be about 4.5.

Having digested Poiles moves, we are a better team than last year, but not a contender and a dark horse for a playoff spot. It all comes down to us versus Minnesota with St. Louis and Chicago being locks. Time will tell if we made the right decisions on Blum and Hustle, who I still believe have some talent left to show.

Am I thrilled with the roster? No. Happy no. Is it serviceable yes. I am just excited to see our youth. I think spals and smith are droppable at this point (along with ellis). Wish we would take a shot at grabo or Brunner. I wish Poile hadn't signed those ridiculous gaustad, Hendricks, and Nystrom deals. I sincerely hope they prohibit us from making moves in the future. Cullen, while not what we need, should be a solid addition for the next two years. Still had hoped to get a top line center but what can you do? It really comes down to the kids. Is Borque for real? Is Forsberg a top six this year? Is jones a top 4? Is Beck for real?

I see the lines looking like this next year.

Wilson Legwand Hornqvist
Forsberg Fisher Stalberg
Borque Cullen Spaling/Smith/Beck
Hendricks Gaustad Nystrom

Josi Weber
Jones Klein
Bartley Ellis

Ideally we upgrade that third line spot with someone better and burying the puck and get a more seasoned back up goalie.

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07-27-2013, 03:50 PM
  #972
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I would love to get a scorer....

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Old
07-27-2013, 10:05 PM
  #973
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I would love to get a scorer....
And yet there is a rumor out there that Wings want to trade Tootoo and Poile apparently hasn't said no ... mlive.com

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07-27-2013, 10:31 PM
  #974
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And yet there is a rumor out there that Wings want to trade Tootoo and Poile apparently hasn't said no ... mlive.com

Better Break out those tootoo whistles,because he may be heading back to nashville,if poile says yes

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07-27-2013, 11:07 PM
  #975
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Better Break out those tootoo whistles,because he may be heading back to nashville,if poile says yes
What would it take? Tootoo + draft pick for Smith. Clune for Tootoo? Spaling for Tootoo? They need salary relief.

Do the Wings have a 2nd pair Dman to send our way with Tootoo?

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