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Teams that play a lot of rookies tend to lose a lot of games

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07-17-2013, 01:24 PM
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Illinihockey
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Teams that play a lot of rookies tend to lose a lot of games

I hope that people keep this in mind when they pencil in 4 or 5 rookies into our line up next year. I agree that its time to give a few of the kids a look, but I hope people aren't expecting a repeat of last season. Last year we started 1 rookie and he was the best rookie by far we've had since Versteeg. Most rookies tend to struggle or are otherwise ineffective their first full season.

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07-17-2013, 01:25 PM
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This is a decent talking point, but you have to consider the number of teams that start rookies due to a lack of talent in their organization.

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07-17-2013, 01:26 PM
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Teams that have four first line forwards and two top pairing defenseman tend to win lots of games.

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07-17-2013, 01:27 PM
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people who score more goals than the other team tend to win a lot of games

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07-17-2013, 01:28 PM
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A team with a lot of rookies playing tends to be a team with little depth. However, that doesn't apply to us. I haven't seen people penciling 5 rookies into the line up - but, in any event, outside of 2c most of the available position are depth roles...and i don't really seeing us lose games b/c of an inexperienced playing filling a role like that.

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07-17-2013, 01:33 PM
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Illinihockey
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Originally Posted by UsernameWasTaken View Post
A team with a lot of rookies playing tends to be a team with little depth. However, that doesn't apply to us. I haven't seen people penciling 5 rookies into the line up - but, in any event, outside of 2c most of the available position are depth roles...and i don't really seeing us lose games b/c of an inexperienced playing filling a role like that.
Our 3rd and 4th lines played a ton of important minutes last year. A lot of lineups I have been seeing have a rookie 2nd line center, 3rd line RW, both 4th line wingers, and a rookie 7th defenseman who will certainly play.

Has a team ever won the Cup starting 4 rookies?

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07-17-2013, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by DisgruntledHawkFan View Post
Teams that have four first line forwards and two top pairing defenseman tend to win lots of games.
How'd that work for us in 2011? That year we were played 6 rookies over 25 games. We also had Bollig play 18 games and Smith play 13. 6th place finish, 1st round out.

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07-17-2013, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Illinihockey View Post
Our 3rd and 4th lines played a ton of important minutes last year. A lot of lineups I have been seeing have a rookie 2nd line center, 3rd line RW, both 4th line wingers, and a rookie 7th defenseman who will certainly play.

Has a team ever won the Cup starting 4 rookies?
the question isn't how important the minutes are - it's can the players who have left be replaced by rookies...i believe they can.

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07-17-2013, 01:38 PM
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Yeah, I don't think it's relevant for Chicago. This team will be better than the 2008-09 team, and that team dressed Kris Versteeg, Troy Brouwer, Niklas Hjalmarsson and Colin Fraser full-time after the trade deadline (Versteeg, Brouwer and Fraser made the team out of camp) as rookies. That was also Bolland's first full-season, and overall, the team lacked experience.

The rookies that will make the team this year all have NHL games under their belt, and all have 3 years of Pro experience. They'll be well insulated and they'll be in roles that will make the most of their attributes and help them be successful.

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07-17-2013, 01:42 PM
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the question isn't how important the minutes are - it's can the players who have left be replaced by rookies...i believe they can.
I think people vastly under estimate what Stalberg and Frolik gave us last year during the regular season. I'd be shocked if any rookie was our #1 penalty killer or put up 45+ points next year.

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07-17-2013, 01:49 PM
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I think people vastly under estimate what Stalberg and Frolik gave us last year during the regular season. I'd be shocked if any rookie was our #1 penalty killer or put up 45+ points next year.
Stalberg was on pace for 40 points last year, and given how he performed in the playoffs, I think Morin can at least match that.

Another thing worth pointing out, since you brought up 2010-11.. none of the rookies that started the year for Chicago that season (outside of Leddy) projected as impact players in the NHL, and none of them projected as impact players for that season. Obviously, Bickell had a solid season and has since become an impact player (to what extent remains to be seen), but outside of Leddy, there wasn't a lot of promise in Bickell, Dowell, Skille, etc.

The 2013-14 rookie crop could not be more the opposite. Brandon Pirri and Jeremy Morin are coming off great/very good offensive seasons in the AHL and both have been pegged as potential top-6 talents since their draft. Both have a chance to put up some points for the Hawks, especially Pirri and Ben Smith's added tons more experience to his resume since the 2010-11 season, where he played a decent role in the playoffs.

It's simply a polar-opposite rookie class this year for the Hawks, on top of Chicago having far more proven/quality depth than they had at the start of the 2010-11 season.

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07-17-2013, 01:50 PM
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I think Smith and Morin will be fine. Pirri/LeBlanc and if there's a Brookbank trade, Stanton, will be interesting guys to watch. If one or both are not performing well enough, Stan opened some cap space to give the team flexibility to improve down the road. Hayes might also make the team as a 13th or 14th forward, right or wrong.

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07-17-2013, 01:55 PM
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Stalberg was on pace for 40 points last year, and given how he performed in the playoffs, I think Morin can at least match that.

Another thing worth pointing out, since you brought up 2010-11.. none of the rookies that started the year for Chicago that season (outside of Leddy) projected as impact players in the NHL, and none of them projected as impact players for that season. Obviously, Bickell had a solid season and has since become an impact player (to what extent remains to be seen), but outside of Leddy, there wasn't a lot of promise in Bickell, Dowell, Skille, etc.

The 2013-14 rookie crop could not be more the opposite. Brandon Pirri and Jeremy Morin are coming off great/very good offensive seasons in the AHL and both have been pegged as potential top-6 talents since their draft. Both have a chance to put up some points for the Hawks, especially Pirri and Ben Smith's added tons more experience to his resume since the 2010-11 season, where he played a decent role in the playoffs.

It's simply a polar-opposite rookie class this year for the Hawks, on top of Chicago having far more proven/quality depth than they had at the start of the 2010-11 season.
We've had what, 2 rookies break 40 points as a rookie (not named Toews or Kane). Brouwer put up very similar numbers to Morin and scored 26 points as a rookie. Kruger was an excellet offensive player in the SEL and put up 26 points as a rookie. If you think Morin is going to put up 40+ points on the third line next year, you're crazy.

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07-17-2013, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Illinihockey View Post
We've had what, 2 rookies break 40 points as a rookie (not named Toews or Kane). Brouwer put up very similar numbers to Morin and scored 26 points as a rookie. Kruger was an excellet offensive player in the SEL and put up 26 points as a rookie. If you think Morin is going to put up 40+ points on the third line next year, you're crazy.
I'm really not. Morin actually possesses above-average hockey sense, and quite a bit more talented offensively. If he gets some PP time, I'd be surprised if he didn't score 35+ points. And lets point something out, Stalberg didn't score 40 points from the third line last year - he was merely on pace to. Could he have? Sure. Could he have not? That seems more likely based on his playoff performance.

In total, Stalberg had 9 goals and 26 points in 66 games last year. That, despite Stalberg playing games in the playoffs that would supposedly enhance his effectiveness, because he could "breakthrough" or "expose" the trapping/defensive styles of the Wild, Wings, Kings and Bruins. That didn't happen.

The only thing Stalberg does better than Morin is skate. That's literally it. Everyone needs to stop pretending that Stalberg's speed made/broke how effective the third line was last year.

EDIT: As for the Brouwer point, he spent a large portion of the 08-09 season on the 4th line. If Morin manages 16 goals, spending a large chunk on the 4th line, I'd consider that a very good rookie season.

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07-17-2013, 02:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illinihockey View Post
I think people vastly under estimate what Stalberg and Frolik gave us last year during the regular season. I'd be shocked if any rookie was our #1 penalty killer or put up 45+ points next year.
I've made it very clear that I hated to see Frolik moved. I would have slotted him up a line and rolled Saad - Shaw - Frolik with Smith and Morin on the fourth line around Kruger.

I do think that if Pirri is given a real chance in the top six he's capable of roughly 50 points.

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07-17-2013, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Illinihockey View Post
I think people vastly under estimate what Stalberg and Frolik gave us last year during the regular season. I'd be shocked if any rookie was our #1 penalty killer or put up 45+ points next year.
Regular season, Smegular Sneason.

We will miss Frolik for his PKing, but remind me what the hell did Stalberg do in the playoffs? As a committee, I think we have smart enough players to replace Froliks PK role, and we don't need much out of Morin, Pirri or Smith to make up for Stalbergs playoff play.

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07-17-2013, 02:26 PM
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Regular season, Smegular Sneason.

We will miss Frolik for his PKing, but remind me what the hell did Stalberg do in the playoffs? As a committee, I think we have smart enough players to replace Froliks PK role, and we don't need much out of Morin, Pirri or Smith to make up for Stalbergs playoff play.
Are we going to discount what Bolland did in the playoffs?

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07-17-2013, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by DisgruntledHawkFan View Post
I've made it very clear that I hated to see Frolik moved. I would have slotted him up a line and rolled Saad - Shaw - Frolik with Smith and Morin on the fourth line around Kruger.

I do think that if Pirri is given a real chance in the top six he's capable of roughly 50 points.
If Pirri gets 50 points, he may get rookie of the year. If he can do that, the Hawks will have an awesome season again next year. Versteeg had 53 points as a rookie and was a Calder finalist if I remember correctly or at least was in consideration late into the year.

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07-17-2013, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Illinihockey View Post
I hope that people keep this in mind when they pencil in 4 or 5 rookies into our line up next year. I agree that its time to give a few of the kids a look, but I hope people aren't expecting a repeat of last season. Last year we started 1 rookie and he was the best rookie by far we've had since Versteeg. Most rookies tend to struggle or are otherwise ineffective their first full season.
Who are these four to five rookies? Only three forward positions have vacancies:

2C (Pirri, Leblanc, Kruger, Handzus)
3RW (Hayes, Morin, Smith)
4RW (Hayes, Morin, Smith)

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07-17-2013, 02:55 PM
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Most rookies tend to struggle or are otherwise ineffective their first full season.
Most "rookies" did not play four years of college hockey and play three years in the AHL and will be 25 years old by the time training camp commences.

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07-17-2013, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Illinihockey View Post
I hope that people keep this in mind when they pencil in 4 or 5 rookies into our line up next year. I agree that its time to give a few of the kids a look, but I hope people aren't expecting a repeat of last season. Last year we started 1 rookie and he was the best rookie by far we've had since Versteeg. Most rookies tend to struggle or are otherwise ineffective their first full season.


I'm not sure I'm buying that this team will lose a lot of games because of rookies. Let me ask you this where do you expect the GA to be for the 2013-14 season? The defense hasn't changed at all and is prime to repeat or atleast be in the bottom 3-5 teams in Goals Allowed.

I honestly would be cool if Seabrook, Keith, Hossa & Sharp only played 70 games each this season. We have enough depth that veterans could be rested. Now giving those four players that much time off would be excessive. It also may keep them fresh for another long playoff run. I think this is the perfect year to test rookies more than ever. Coming off a longer season because of winning the cup and with the olympic schedule also factoring into things there should be many days off for veteran guys.

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07-17-2013, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by SLarmer28 View Post
Who are these four to five rookies? Only three forward positions have vacancies:

2C (Pirri, Leblanc, Kruger, Handzus)
3RW (Hayes, Morin, Smith)
4RW (Hayes, Morin, Smith)
I've seen most lineups include a 4th line LW and a 6th/7th defenseman (Stanton)

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07-17-2013, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Illinihockey View Post
If Pirri gets 50 points, he may get rookie of the year. If he can do that, the Hawks will have an awesome season again next year. Versteeg had 53 points as a rookie and was a Calder finalist if I remember correctly or at least was in consideration late into the year.
I doubt Pirri wins it with 50. There is some pretty steep competition this year.

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07-17-2013, 03:05 PM
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Most "rookies" did not play four years of college hockey and play three years in the AHL and will be 25 years old by the time training camp commences.
Thats because most players that do that aren't any good and don't amount to anything. You know who played his first full season at age 25? Stalberg and he scored 24 points.

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07-17-2013, 03:08 PM
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Most rookies tend to struggle or are otherwise ineffective their first full season.
Most NHL rookies by the age of 22 have not played 212 AHL games and by their third season as a professional hockey player lead the AHL in scoring.

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