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The Michael McCarron Thread - Part II : Bigger, Stronger and Meaner

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Old
07-18-2013, 02:16 PM
  #301
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Originally Posted by Crimson Skorpion View Post
He'll fight, but it won't be because it's staged or anything stupid. The only way I see McCarron fighting is after he delivers a devastating hit and someone takes notice, or vice versa -- one of his teammates gets their bell rung and McCarron steps in.
I was just about to post the same thing.

If someone hits Horvat or Domi hard, then he can step in and start wailing on a guy. But to go right after a faceoff is senseless. Messages don't really need to be sent in the CHL.

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07-18-2013, 03:32 PM
  #302
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I think your targets are probably right around where his own personal targets are. I would say 65 points is the over/under. It's a very solid season if he puts up that number, but playing with Domi and Horvat, he should come close.

As for fights, regardless of what any of us want, the reality is that 5-7 fights is almost a given. No way he risks (or London lets him) hit double digits and get suspended.


This and the other post. Good insight from our neighbour up the 401.

Im hoping for 20 Gs. Points will come if he plays with a Domi.

I just want to see him improve his 200 ft play, and learn to use that big body. He isnt going to be the star of the team, leading scorer or MVP but hell be a valuable piece by years end.

Im guessing 5-10 fights, under 65 pts and 20Gs

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And give me a break with the "increasing punishment after 10 fights".

I want this guy to fight between 10 and 12 times this season, looking at those standings. I also want him to get on the scoresheet and develop his skills, but one actually doesn't prevent the other
I agree, he needs to develop all aspects of his game, but you get to the 15 fight mark and your probly looking at 15-20 games worth of suspensions. Throw in the leagues penchant for penalizing "hard hits" and he could be out a bunch of games

Id have no prob with 10-12 if its needed and not just for show. My post was in response to someone who wanted more than your level. I really do want to see him develop into a feared PF but getting in 15 fights and missing 20 games because of it aint going to help as much as playing the games with an atttiutude

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07-18-2013, 04:02 PM
  #303
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This and the other post. Good insight from our neighbour up the 401.

Im hoping for 20 Gs. Points will come if he plays with a Domi.

I just want to see him improve his 200 ft play, and learn to use that big body. He isnt going to be the star of the team, leading scorer or MVP but hell be a valuable piece by years end.

Im guessing 5-10 fights, under 65 pts and 20Gs



I agree, he needs to develop all aspects of his game, but you get to the 15 fight mark and your probly looking at 15-20 games worth of suspensions. Throw in the leagues penchant for penalizing "hard hits" and he could be out a bunch of games

Id have no prob with 10-12 if its needed and not just for show. My post was in response to someone who wanted more than your level. I really do want to see him develop into a feared PF but getting in 15 fights and missing 20 games because of it aint going to help as much as playing the games with an atttiutude
20 goals, 60+ points is actually pretty weak production for an 18 year old CHLer that you hope to be in an NHL top nine some day. Especially if he's got good linemates.

I'd be thinking that if he is who we hope he is, McCarron would be cracking more than a point per game

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07-18-2013, 04:14 PM
  #304
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To me what's most important for Hulk is to continue to improve his skating, develop his offensive game and knowing how to use his frame to perfection. I want ever single pound and inch of his body to become a source of frustration for opponents, mostly in their own zone.

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20 goals, 60+ points is actually pretty weak production for an 18 year old CHLer that you hope to be in an NHL top nine some day. Especially if he's got good linemates.

I'd be thinking that if he is who we hope he is, McCarron would be cracking more than a point per game


Points in the CHL don't mean as much for a player like him, his offensive game may very well translate more directly than many other players who destroy the league in scoring, simply because his game is made for the NHL.

Now I'm not saying that McCarron will be a 60+ player in the NHL, but 40+ pts seems reasonable for him. A Ryan Malone kind of production.

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07-18-2013, 05:18 PM
  #305
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To me what's most important for Hulk is to continue to improve his skating, develop his offensive game and knowing how to use his frame to perfection. I want ever single pound and inch of his body to become a source of frustration for opponents, mostly in their own zone.





Points in the CHL don't mean as much for a player like him, his offensive game may very well translate more directly than many other players who destroy the league in scoring, simply because his game is made for the NHL.

Now I'm not saying that McCarron will be a 60+ player in the NHL, but 40+ pts seems reasonable for him. A Ryan Malone kind of production.
I hope it's better than Ryan Malone's. I don't think of Malone as a first rounder even if he was.

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07-18-2013, 05:20 PM
  #306
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Yeah, points aren't going to tell even half the story in McCarron's case. I want to see how he's playing along the boards, in front of the net, how he's hitting, and intimidating as well as how he's scoring the goals he scores, how he's getting the points that he does.

...and of course, I want to see him making some sick dekes.

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07-18-2013, 05:26 PM
  #307
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I hope it's better than Ryan Malone's. I don't think of Malone as a first rounder even if he was.
McCarron has the potential to bring more intangibles than Malone though, closer Lucic's game. I was only referring to Malone's offensive output, which is around 40 to 50 pts a year.

You don't bring in guys like that to be ppg players.

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07-18-2013, 05:50 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
20 goals, 60+ points is actually pretty weak production for an 18 year old CHLer that you hope to be in an NHL top nine some day. Especially if he's got good linemates.

I'd be thinking that if he is who we hope he is, McCarron would be cracking more than a point per game
Really? First off - Hunter switches lines more than Bowman used to - no guarantees he'll be playing with Horvat and Domi all the time.

There aren't a lot of NHLers with McCarron's size and style of play playing on NHL teams' top 9. Lucic, Bickell, Simmonds come to mind.... and none of them scored more than a ppg as 18-19-year olds.

A recent pick of Toronto who was drafted at a similar position that they are hoping will fill that type of role is Tyler Biggs...he had 53 points and 55 PIM's in his rookie OHL season despite having top-end linemates. He was drafted even higher than McCarron. I expect McCarron to beat those numbers, especially his PIM's, but to say 65 points will be "weak production" for that type of player in his first CHL season is simply untrue.


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07-18-2013, 06:22 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
I hope it's better than Ryan Malone's. I don't think of Malone as a first rounder even if he was.
Big physical players who can fight and put up between 45-60 points a season are first rounders in every scouts/GM's book.

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07-18-2013, 06:22 PM
  #310
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Really? First off - Hunter switches lines more than Bowman used to - no guarantees he'll be playing with Horvat and Domi all the time.

There aren't a lot of NHLers with McCarron's size and style of play playing on team's top 9. Lucic, Bickell, Simmonds come to mind.... and none of them scored more than 65 points as 18-19-year olds.

A recent pick of Toronto who was drafted at a similar position that they are hoping will fill that type of role is Tyler Biggs...he had 53 points and 55 PIM's in his rookie OHL season despite having top-end linemates. He was drafted even higher than McCarron. I expect McCarron to beat those numbers, especially his PIM's, but to say 65 points will be "weak production" for that type of player in his first CHL season is simply untrue.
Its not hard and fast for 18, but generally speaking guys who make it do a little better than people are saying

19 is a real crunch time though, everyone who is anyone in the NHL level is an offensive dynamo at that stage, including Bickell and Simmonds (Lucic was basically ppg at 18 years, and a 30, not 20 goal man).

In Biggs' case he was under ppg at 19, which should be something of a red flag. In the draft +2 year even the most marginal 4th line NHL players tend to score better than he did at that point in junior.

Now we can make allowances for if he's struggling a bit due to being a big man adjusting to his size, and that powerforwards do tend to get shafted in point scoring compared to true offensive contribution. But if he's playing with a center like Domi in the CHL at 18, its pretty reasonable to expect him to produce against his peer group. Biggs is exactly the kind of overwhelming performance you don't want to see in your prized 1st round pick.

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07-18-2013, 06:40 PM
  #311
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My hope is at the NHL level he can score 20 plus goals with lots of physical play, and do well in fights whenever the need arises. To me that's a homerun. Assists are fine, but the 20 plus goals is what I want.

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07-18-2013, 06:45 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Its not hard and fast for 18, but generally speaking guys who make it do a little better than people are saying

19 is a real crunch time though, everyone who is anyone in the NHL level is an offensive dynamo at that stage, including Bickell and Simmonds (Lucic was basically ppg at 18 years, and a 30, not 20 goal man).

In Biggs' case he was under ppg at 19, which should be something of a red flag. In the draft +2 year even the most marginal 4th line NHL players tend to score better than he did at that point in junior.

Now we can make allowances for if he's struggling a bit due to being a big man adjusting to his size, and that powerforwards do tend to get shafted in point scoring compared to true offensive contribution. But if he's playing with a center like Domi in the CHL at 18, its pretty reasonable to expect him to produce against his peer group. Biggs is exactly the kind of overwhelming performance you don't want to see in your prized 1st round pick.
You are making an incorrect generalization - lots of bottom line players in the NHL weren't ppg players in the OHL - even some top six players who play a robust style. You are putting much too emphasis on points. 53 points as an OHL rookie isn't a red flag..it was Biggs' lack of toughness that was the main red flag for me.

Bickell scored 55 points the year after he was drafted, and 53 in his final junior year. Clarkson wasn't close to being a ppg player (39 points at Mac's age, 54 at age 19), Neil scored 55 points at Mac's age, and he was a second-year player. Andrew Shaw had 36 and 54 points his last two junior seasons.

Your assertion is simply not factual.

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07-18-2013, 06:51 PM
  #313
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You are making an incorrect generalization - lots of bottom line players in the NHL weren't ppg players in the OHL - even some top six players who play a robust style. You are putting much too emphasis on points. 53 points as an OHL rookie isn't a red flag..it was Biggs' lack of toughness that was the main red flag for me.

Bickell scored 55 points the year after he was drafted, and 53 in his final junior year. Clarkson wasn't close to being a ppg player (39 points at Mac's age, 54 at age 19), Neil scored 55 points at Mac's age, and he was a second-year player. Andrew Shaw had 36 and 54 points his last two junior seasons.

Your assertion is simply not factual.
I'd like to interject because I agree with you, and I know he's going to correct you: Bickell scored 83 points as a 19 year old. He scored 30 with Windsor.

Now, the rest is factual, and beyond that, I really agree with your point. I really care how he's getting these points, as opposed to how many he's getting. Specifically, I want to see him playing the kind of game that becomes more valuable, not less, when playing playoff hockey (aka. Prison rules).

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07-18-2013, 07:01 PM
  #314
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I'd like to interject because I agree with you, and I know he's going to correct you: Bickell scored 83 points as a 19 year old. He scored 30 with Windsor.

Now, the rest is factual, and beyond that, I really agree with your point. I really care how he's getting these points, as opposed to how many he's getting. Specifically, I want to see him playing the kind of game that becomes more valuable, not less, when playing playoff hockey (aka. Prison rules).
Thanks...I knew Bickell wasn't a ppg player at Mac's age..that's the main point. None of the players who we hope he can pattern himself after were.

Do I expect McCarron to score more than a PPG as a 19-year-old? I hope so..but to be calling people's point projections of 60-65 points as an 18-year-old OHL rookie as being weak for his type of player is simply untrue.

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07-18-2013, 07:04 PM
  #315
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Big physical players who can fight and put up between 45-60 points a season are first rounders in every scouts/GM's book.
You don't even have to fight. Look at the Troy Brouwer trade. Just a big dude that gets 40ish points and he was traded for a 1st.

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07-18-2013, 07:11 PM
  #316
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Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
You are making an incorrect generalization - lots of bottom line players in the NHL weren't ppg players in the OHL - even some top six players who play a robust style. You are putting much too emphasis on points. 53 points as an OHL rookie isn't a red flag..it was Biggs' lack of toughness that was the main red flag for me.

Bickell scored 55 points the year after he was drafted, and 53 in his final junior year. Clarkson wasn't close to being a ppg player (39 points at Mac's age, 54 at age 19), Neil scored 55 points at Mac's age, and he was a second-year player. Andrew Shaw had 36 and 54 points his last two junior seasons.

Your assertion is simply not factual.
Keep an eye on the games played. 50 in 41 games. By the time Clarkson was finished with the OHL he was at 54 in 51. Neil was almost a ppg with 55 in 59 at 18, was 72 in 66 at 19.

I'll also note that Clarkson was a very late bloomer in terms of having any kind of NHL production. And if people are talking about a guy that can ride shotgun on a scoring line, we're talking about a higher class of player than Neil.

Shaw, I'll spot you, but he's hardly an established player.

So when I'm saying I'd like to see better than 20/60 in the OHL, I'm talking on a full season basis. Shave off games and shave off point expectations as well.


But I'll conceed weak production for McCarron somewhat over stated the case. I was thinking more along the lines of what kind of scoring a top six winger (which a lot of people are hoping on him to be) does at 18 in the CHL which is a bit different than the comparables being brought up. If we're talking about a guy that consistently gets 15+ goals (not just a career season) at the NHL level, that kind of player tends to score a lot in their last couple junior seasons.

You can also find some lower level junior scorers that do make it, but check what guys like Ryan White, Armstrong, Paille, Campbell, McClement to pick some bottom sixers from the division did in junior. They scored quite a bit.


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07-18-2013, 07:41 PM
  #317
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Guys, you need to remember that all he needs to do to be succesful is having a hard shot and skate/have stamina good enough to keep up the pace. Unless a HUGE surprise, most of his goals will be infront of the net, near the net, or some odd man rushes. There won't be end to end rushes. He'll do some board play to give room for his teammates. He will be playing with NHLers, and probably in a top 6 role. That means some very good players will feed him the puck. Putting up sooo many points in junior means squat he can't park himself in front of the net and win loose pucks.

All I want him to do is better his skating, have a hard shot and play like a big guy. With good players, points will come. Oh and I want some youtube fights too

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07-18-2013, 07:48 PM
  #318
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Guys, you need to remember that all he needs to do to be succesful is having a hard shot and skate/have stamina good enough to keep up the pace. Unless a HUGE surprise, most of his goals will be infront of the net, near the net, or some odd man rushes. There won't be end to end rushes. He'll do some board play to give room for his teammates. He will be playing with NHLers, and probably in a top 6 role. That means some very good players will feed him the puck. Putting up sooo many points in junior means squat he can't park himself in front of the net and win loose pucks.

All I want him to do is better his skating, have a hard shot and play like a big guy. With good players, points will come. Oh and I want some youtube fights too
Not sure it will be that easy. There have been plenty of busts with players of the sort. People said the same about Jessiman when he was drafted and it's not looking like he'll have any sort of impact in the NHL. Kyle Beach is having a tough time adjusting to the AHL. Could still become an NHLer sometime down the road but still.

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07-18-2013, 07:54 PM
  #319
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McCarron's upside is really hard to predict. He has one thing going for him that the past big (busts) first rounders the Habs grabbed did not have... Skating ability. No where have I read that his skating needs a whole lot of work. A guy that. Big who can skate that well as an 18 year old is promising. He is a hit or bust type for sure but his chances are good because he has great size, undetermined skill and can skate. He will be fun to watch. I expect that he will struggle like Tinordi did during his rookie season in London but will get better as the year goes on!

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07-18-2013, 09:05 PM
  #320
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McCarron's upside is really hard to predict. He has one thing going for him that the past big (busts) first rounders the Habs grabbed did not have... Skating ability. No where have I read that his skating needs a whole lot of work. A guy that. Big who can skate that well as an 18 year old is promising. He is a hit or bust type for sure but his chances are good because he has great size, undetermined skill and can skate. He will be fun to watch. I expect that he will struggle like Tinordi did during his rookie season in London but will get better as the year goes on!
I agree, he is boom or bust but he has a good chance of being a legit NHLer more so than others because of his skating. It does need work, but at 18, he's got time.
As for points from Mac, I'd be happy with 25 goals, 65 points, especially if he plays with Horvat and Domi. If Hunter switches lines at some point (which he probably will) I think Mac could do well on a line with Chris Tierny in the middle and someone like Josh Anderson or Kyle Platzer on the left side.
7-10 fights would be good for him, don't risk a suspension.
I am planning on going to the Knights game in Oshawa so I'm hoping he drops em with Johnny McGuire
But yes, next year will be very interesting to watch the Knights, and I think playing in the Mem cup will be a good experience for Mac an I wouldn't be surprised if London won the whole thing with the team they'll have, Horvat, Domi, MacCarron, Welychka, Tierny, Anderson, Platzer, Elie, R.Rupert, M.Rupert, Maatta, Zadorov, Mermis, Stolarz, etc... is a pretty damn good team

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07-19-2013, 01:19 PM
  #321
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My hope is that fans don't put exaggerated expectations on this kid in his first year in the OHL (the best Junior league in the world). Let's not forget that Brandon Saad, Tyler Bigg's, and Tinordi all came from the USHL to the OHL, the travel, eating habits, workouts, prep. for games are doubled and none of them were ready for that.

How could they be ready?

They had never played a 100 game season, ever in their lives and at better competition than they faced except in WJHC's. The WJHC's are a small sample to go by, certainly they all performed well, but the preparation was in place from the coaches that always lead the USNTDP into the world's.

So let's not make goals for our prospects, especially ones that have been shown to be exaggerrated in the past. Mike will hit a wall about half way through the season much the same as Jarred Tinordi did his first season in the London Knights organization. The 2nd year is when I will expect McCarron to make his presence felt throughout the OHL and everyone will notice the difference.

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07-19-2013, 02:05 PM
  #322
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I hope it's better than Ryan Malone's. I don't think of Malone as a first rounder even if he was.
He was a steal, would be a 1st rounder if there was a re-draft. Healthy Ryan Malone produces ~50 point pace while providing size/physicality. That would be a great return for a low 1st. Especially if he manages to reach that earlier in his career than Malone did.

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07-20-2013, 06:39 AM
  #323
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I do not get the "he could be a bust" comments at all. Why are folks saying that - because he's 6-5? Makes no sense whatsoever. Again - he is nothing like Jessiman - good hands and a decent skater, good sense...unless he gets injured this guy is a lock to play in the NHL for a long, long time time.

He is an A or B prospect at worst.

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07-20-2013, 07:36 AM
  #324
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Nope. You disagree because your a hardcore Canadian fan. Ive watched him a lot. I know what most of his ability's are. His fighting ability is not good, it needs to be worked on. You guy's are overrating his ability's just because he went in the 1st round. If you've watched him a lot you would know.
The whole Habs scouting team seems to think he's a 1st rounder. I am assuming they watched him play as well. Or these guys just pick random bums with theirs first pick. You make him sound like a bum.

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07-20-2013, 07:59 AM
  #325
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Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
I do not get the "he could be a bust" comments at all. Why are folks saying that - because he's 6-5? Makes no sense whatsoever. Again - he is nothing like Jessiman - good hands and a decent skater, good sense...unless he gets injured this guy is a lock to play in the NHL for a long, long time time.

He is an A or B prospect at worst.
People will believe what they want, Grant.

I will gladly take your report and the reports of many other scouts over what some people in here say, 11 times out of 10 and twice on Sunday, especially when all you scouts are pretty much saying the same things about McCarron. I haven't gotten the chance to watch much of him so my opinion is based on the scouts' opinion but I have seen highlights of his play. For a big man, his skating is good and that right there is reassuring. If you are that big and have AT LEAST skating that is on par with everyone else, that is something to feel good about. His hands are good, as you said and his shot is decent. For me, what I love most about McCarron is his work down low. During the highlights videos, I would often see players running into him in attempt to knock him off the puck. Instead, they'd bounce off him like a rubber wall and tumble to the ice. He makes players that are 6'0, 6'1 look small and look weaker than they actually are. Plus, I love his nose for the net and how he takes pucks from the corners and makes a bee-line for the slot.

He's going to learn a lot in London, tone his skills, learn to play both aggressive AND smart and drop the gloves every now and then. I agree he will be an NHL'er for a very long time, barring injury, and could see it happening within 2-3 years time.

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