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The Oilers and the cap

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Old
07-22-2013, 03:54 PM
  #1
CROTT
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The Oilers and the cap

The Oilers are now over the cap. According to capgeek the Oilers have 13 forwards totaling 42,499,167 and if you take 7 defensemen totaling 18,700,000 (J. Shultz, Smid, Petry, N. Schultz, Ference, Belov, and Grebeshkov) and 2 goalies totaling 4,500,000. You can argue about which seven defensemen will make the team, but it will only save ~750,000.

13 Forwards - 42,499,167
7 Defensemen - 18,700,000
2 Goailies - 4,500,000
-------------------------------
Total cap - 65,699,167
Upper limit - 64,300,000
---------------------------------
Cap space - -1,399,167

Ben Eager 1,100,000? He will probably play in OKC again with Brown being better and Cheaper in his role.

The Oilers do have 9,150,000 in performance bonuses with this roster, which if it is still like the old CBA. The Oilers are able to go over the cap with bonuses, but they will be held against next years cap.

Next year the Oilers will gain some breathing room with Hemsky, N. Schultz, Jones, and Smyth being UFA clearing 11,250,000 of cap space. And the cap will probably go up 2 to 3 million. But that off season the Oilers have to re-sign Nugent-Hopkins, J. Schultz, Petry and Dubnyk or other starting goaltender. Which would be an estimated RNH ~6,000,000 (equal to Hall and Eberle contracts), J. Shultz ~5,000,000 , Petry ~2,500,000, Goaltender ~3,500,000 totaling 17,000,000. And the Oilers would still need to fill those roster spots, with an average of ~900,000 that is 3,600,000.

Granted you can Trade Petry and Replace him with Klefbom which would save ~1,250,000. But, I can't see the Oilers trading RNH, J. Schultz, or finding a starting goaltender for under 3,000,000.

The Year after that, Yakupov needs to be re-signed. At this point too much would have changed re-guarding the Oilers payroll. But it is still some thing to consider when signing other contracts.

I'd bet Mactavish is not done yet, and it is going to be an interesting few seasons. Could we see one of Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yakupov, or J. Schultz traded?

Capgeek:
http://www.capgeek.com/player/258


Last edited by CROTT: 07-22-2013 at 04:00 PM.
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07-22-2013, 03:59 PM
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Paralyzer
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Justin Schultz will come cheaper than expected. If you look at Del Zotto and Subban, he probably will get 3.5-4M for 4-5 years.

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07-22-2013, 04:07 PM
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CROTT
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer View Post
Justin Schultz will come cheaper than expected. If you look at Del Zotto and Subban, he probably will get 3.5-4M for 4-5 years.
Subban and Del Zotto's ELC were less then 1,000,000, J. Shultz's ELC was the max with bonuses totaling 3,775,000. Odds are that he is gonna get a raise to aleast around 4,500,000.

He is already making what you suggested, would you take a pay cut. We all know Gagner won't...

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07-22-2013, 04:09 PM
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Paralyzer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CROTT View Post
Subban and Del Zotto's ELC were less then 1,000,000, J. Shultz's was the ELC max with bonuses totaling 3,750,000. Odds are that he is gonna get a raise to aleast around 4,500,000.

He is already making what you suggested, would you take a pay cut. We all know Gagner won't...
If he only get's 30-40 points next season, he is only worth 3.5-4. If he get's 40+ with a + in +/-, then he could garner what you are saying. You don't pay someone based on what he got paid last. If we are doing the KLowe way where we overpay each player based on potential, we will be sinking quickly.

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07-22-2013, 04:12 PM
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CROTT
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer View Post
If he only get's 30-40 points next season, he is only worth 3.5-4. If he get's 40+ with a + in +/-, then he could garner what you are saying. You don't pay someone based on what he got paid last. If we are doing the KLowe way where we overpay each player based on potential, we will be sinking quickly.
To sign him long term (into UFA years) it will cost at least 4 to 4.5. The Oilers don't have the best defense core, and J. Schultz is gonna be a big part of it moving forward. He was on pace for 46 points as a rookie, and on a team with the forward core like the Oilers he is likely to match or surpass that next season. And his +/- will improve also especially if he is partnered with Ference or Smid.

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07-22-2013, 04:14 PM
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So for bonuses, if the Oilers go over this years cap by 3 million from bonuses, and next years cap is 75 mil (easy example) they would only be able to spend 72 mil?

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07-22-2013, 04:20 PM
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Joey Moss
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We moved up the cap pretty fast. Looking forward to Hemsky, N. Schultz, Smyth all being gone within the next year so we can find some players worth their salary. Also we won't be carrying 9 defenseman on one-way deals for long. Someone will be getting moved somehow.

CapGeek has us at a little over 1M in cap space. Next year we'll have 32M with RNH, J. Schultz, Dubnyk, Petry as notables who might be re-signed. We'll be just fine. Not to mention the cap is probably going up.

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07-22-2013, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CROTT View Post
Subban and Del Zotto's ELC were less then 1,000,000, J. Shultz's ELC was the max with bonuses totaling 3,775,000. Odds are that he is gonna get a raise to aleast around 4,500,000.

He is already making what you suggested, would you take a pay cut. We all know Gagner won't...
How much did Schultz actually make? I bet it wasnt 3M+ .. Schultz's NHL salary last year was 925K + 92.5K signing bonus..
Signing a 3M contract would actually be a 300% raise.

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07-22-2013, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey Moss View Post
We moved up the cap pretty fast. Looking forward to Hemsky, N. Schultz, Smyth all being gone within the next year so we can find some players worth their salary. Also we won't be carrying 9 defenseman on one-way deals for long. Someone will be getting moved somehow.

CapGeek has us at a little over 1M in cap space. Next year we'll have 32M with RNH, J. Schultz, Dubnyk, Petry as notables who might be re-signed. We'll be just fine. Not to mention the cap is probably going up.
cap geek still has Fedun as a RFA... I thought he signed with us..
Also he might be on a 1 way deal so might count against the cap making it $0

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07-22-2013, 04:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CROTT View Post
Subban and Del Zotto's ELC were less then 1,000,000, J. Shultz's ELC was the max with bonuses totaling 3,775,000. Odds are that he is gonna get a raise to aleast around 4,500,000.

He is already making what you suggested, would you take a pay cut. We all know Gagner won't...
He is making 900k this year... he wont be taking a paycut

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07-22-2013, 04:35 PM
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The part about the Bonuses is a big deal. The way ELC's are structured many of the bonuses won't be cashed. 9 million dollars in potential bonuses doesn't equal 9 million at the end of the year, probably 2/3rds at most.

Besides that the Oilers have cap space. According to cap geek they have $1,348,333 with a roster of 24, one over the limit. If Potter is demoted they have $2,123,333. Of course they still may trade Hemsky. I assume they calculate that by creating a bonus cushion, by removing bonus costs that can't be reached (i.e. win the Calder), or by only accounting for the most likely bonuses to be reached. I say this because the Oilers cap payroll is above the cap yet they have cap space.

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07-22-2013, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey Moss View Post
We moved up the cap pretty fast. Looking forward to Hemsky, N. Schultz, Smyth all being gone within the next year so we can find some players worth their salary. Also we won't be carrying 9 defenseman on one-way deals for long. Someone will be getting moved somehow.

CapGeek has us at a little over 1M in cap space. Next year we'll have 32M with RNH, J. Schultz, Dubnyk, Petry as notables who might be re-signed. We'll be just fine. Not to mention the cap is probably going up.
I only used seven defensemen in my numbers, I think some thing is messed with the cap geek total. If you take the numbers per player 13 forwards 42.5, 7 defensemen 18.7, and 2 goalies 4.5 you get 65.7 million which is more then 64.3. And that with out counting the 1,900,000 for Larsen and Potter.

I did make reference to next seasons RFA's and the cap going up, but like the seven defensemen it seams like you either don't read or like to use other peoples ideas and claim them as your own.


Last edited by CROTT: 07-22-2013 at 04:49 PM.
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07-22-2013, 04:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eskimo44 View Post
The part about the Bonuses is a big deal. The way ELC's are structured many of the bonuses won't be cashed. 9 million dollars in potential bonuses doesn't equal 9 million at the end of the year, probably 2/3rds at most.

Besides that the Oilers have cap space. According to cap geek they have $1,348,333 with a roster of 24, one over the limit. If Potter is demoted they have $2,123,333. Of course they still may trade Hemsky. I assume they calculate that by creating a bonus cushion, by removing bonus costs that can't be reached (i.e. win the Calder), or by only accounting for the most likely bonuses to be reached. I say this because the Oilers cap payroll is above the cap yet they have cap space.
Think it'd be interesting if the one year we don't have a favourite to win the Calder, we end up with a player winning the Calder... maybe Klefbom goes out and puts up a 50 point +15 season and ends up playing 30 minutes a night.

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07-22-2013, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Cloned View Post
Think it'd be interesting if the one year we don't have a favourite to win the Calder, we end up with a player winning the Calder... maybe Klefbom goes out and puts up a 50 point +15 season and ends up playing 30 minutes a night.
I would personally lead a Klefbom parade downtown Jasper if he did that, because we'd be a playoff team with a number 1 d-man.

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07-22-2013, 04:53 PM
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We're fine for this year if we keep our team "as-is".

Next season we drop Smyth, Hemsky & N. Schulz which will amount to over $10M in savings, players who really don't bring much to the table or aren't a fit. We should have around $12M to play with to sign J. Schultz & RNH and that's assuming the cap stays the same.

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07-22-2013, 05:27 PM
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The upper limit of the salary cap is $64.3M for this coming season. Our salaries currently sit at $58.8M, but our performance bonuses add an additional $9.15M, putting us at almost $68M if everyone hits their performance bonuses. Potentially, we could be in a little cap trouble (as much as $3.65M). Some trades for picks may still be necessary as the year progresses.

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07-22-2013, 05:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CROTT View Post
I only used seven defensemen in my numbers, I think some thing is messed with the cap geek total. If you take the numbers per player 13 forwards 42.5, 7 defensemen 18.7, and 2 goalies 4.5 you get 65.7 million which is more then 64.3. And that with out counting the 1,900,000 for Larsen and Potter.

I did make reference to next seasons RFA's and the cap going up, but like the seven defensemen it seams like you either don't read or like to use other peoples ideas and claim them as your own.
You're probably not factoring the bonus cushion of 7.5%. Teams can go 7.5% over the cap to accommodate potential bonuses which Edmonton has as much as 9 million worth. So the cap target is then 69.122 million. Granted if everyone cashes these bonuses it impacts next years cap, but that may be a nice problem to have if it happens.

I too have a spreadsheet and mine calculates cap number based on the top 23 cap totals (i.e. the worst case scenario excluding injury cap hits) and it has Edmonton at $66,581,667 total cap hit which gives about $2.5 million cap room. In theory substituting any player out of the 23 top cap hits for a player with a lesser cap hit introduces cap savings. This is less so with the one way contracts as the max cap savings for demoting them is basically $925,000 and the 24th highest cap hit on the team is $925,000.

edit:
Just noticed a calculation error as it was only adding up the top 22. So the worst case cap room is really about 1.5. So they probably don't want to be adding any more salary at this point, but they are under the cap technically speaking.


Last edited by bone: 07-22-2013 at 05:51 PM. Reason: minor spelling correction and noticed calculation error.
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07-22-2013, 05:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Buddha View Post
The upper limit of the salary cap is $64.3M for this coming season. Our salaries currently sit at $58.8M, but our performance bonuses add an additional $9.15M, putting us at almost $68M if everyone hits their performance bonuses. Potentially, we could be in a little cap trouble (as much as $3.65M). Some trades for picks may still be necessary as the year progresses.
Actual salaries vary from caphits, for instance Gagner's new contract will pay him 4.4 million this season. But his caphit is 4.8 which will count towards the cap.

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07-22-2013, 06:23 PM
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Hopefully the cap rises to about $67-$68 mill next season.

That rise + dropping Hemsky/N. Schultz/Smyth should make it easy to re-up Justin Schultz and Nugent Hopkins.

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07-22-2013, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
How much did Schultz actually make? I bet it wasnt 3M+ .. Schultz's NHL salary last year was 925K + 92.5K signing bonus..
Signing a 3M contract would actually be a 300% raise.
This taken from the following source

"And Schultz? Well, that goal gave him eight on the season, which put him in the top 10 in goals among defensemen, which also paid him a performance bonus of $1.17 million."

http://www.thehockeynews.com/article...1-million.html

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07-22-2013, 06:32 PM
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This is reality of the cap, if all our players are really good, Nuge, Yaks, Schultz ect, then we won't be able to keep them. That is what the cap is for. no point worrying about it. I just hope we win before we lose any one.

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07-22-2013, 06:37 PM
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This is reality of the cap, if all our players are really good, Nuge, Yaks, Schultz ect, then we won't be able to keep them. That is what the cap is for. no point worrying about it. I just hope we win before we lose any one.
You can keep all of them. You just don't have the luxury of spending a ton in every other area. Two of them are already locked up long term (Hall/Eberle), it leaves RNH/Yakupov/J.Schultz.

Hall (6) RNH (6) Eberle (6)
Perron (3.8) Gagner (4.8) Yakupov (6)
Blank (2) Gordon (3) Jones (2.4)
Kessy (1) Lander (1.5) Blank (1.25)
Blank (900k)

J. Schultz (6) Smid (3.5)
Petry (3.5) Klefbom (1)
Ference (3.25) Nurse (1.2)
Marincin (1)

Dubnyk (5)
Back Up (1.25)

Fits under a $70 million cap assuming all of RNH/J. Schultz/Yakupov earn $6 mill extensions. The Oilers may have to lose someone like Perron or Gordon before their contracts are up.


Last edited by Soundwave: 07-22-2013 at 06:44 PM.
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07-22-2013, 06:39 PM
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Hemsky will probably not be on the team, which saves 5M alone. I think MacT holds to his word and trades him like he did Horcoff.

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07-22-2013, 06:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CROTT View Post
Next year the Oilers will gain some breathing room with Hemsky, N. Schultz, Jones, and Smyth being UFA clearing 11,250,000 of cap space. And the cap will probably go up 2 to 3 million. But that off season the Oilers have to re-sign Nugent-Hopkins, J. Schultz, Petry and Dubnyk or other starting goaltender. Which would be an estimated RNH ~6,000,000 (equal to Hall and Eberle contracts), J. Shultz ~5,000,000 , Petry ~2,500,000, Goaltender ~3,500,000 totaling 17,000,000. And the Oilers would still need to fill those roster spots, with an average of ~900,000 that is 3,600,000.
Aren't you forgetting to subtract the existing Nuge, Dubnyk, Schultz and Petry deals? Including bonuses, those add up to 13 mil. So with the numbers you list, we have 27ish million to make it happen. Your estimates suggest it can happen for around 21 mil.

Not as dire as you make it sound.

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07-22-2013, 06:48 PM
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We'll get 10 mil cap space just by gettin rid of dead weight like Smyth, Hemsky, and N Schultz. That's more than enough to resign RNH, Schultz, and even Yak for that matter.

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