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The Oilers and the cap

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Old
07-22-2013, 07:48 PM
  #26
skorf
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It definitely could be tight cap-wise next year (though half the league could be tight)

Capgeek is showing 33.5 next year for (eberle, hall, gagner, perron, yakupov, gordon, joensuu, smid, ference)

lets say nuge gets 6, jschultz 4.5, dubnyk 4.5 (this is likely low, a replacement gets at least that much too, smith got 5.6 million and he's at least comparable, i'd say dubnyk>smith even), petry 3

that's up to 51.5 (say cap is 70 million next year)

add in 1.2 for klefbom (he should be on the team next year) and we're up to 52.7 million. With 8 forwards, 5 defense, 1 goalie

if cap is 70 million, that's 9 guys to make 17.3 million. Which is feasible, just we're not looking at anymore impact players
1 backup goalie (bachman or labarbara), 5 forwards (lander resigned, Jones maybe, Acton, Hamilton, Pitlick?, FA), 2 defense (likely out of Larsen, Grebs, Belov, Nschultz?, Potter?)

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07-22-2013, 07:52 PM
  #27
shizan
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Originally Posted by okgooil View Post
This is reality of the cap, if all our players are really good, Nuge, Yaks, Schultz ect, then we won't be able to keep them. That is what the cap is for. no point worrying about it. I just hope we win before we lose any one.
I don't think the oilers have to worry about the cap until Eberle than Hall's contracts are up. Look at Pittsburgh and Chicago's roster's each have a core of 6 players making over 5 million a year. This year is likely the lowest cap number we will see for a while and if these teams can get their core under the cap I don't see why the Oil wont be able to. Nuge will likely get the same or similar contract to Hall and Eberle. HOPEFULLY Yakupov the same, but with the KHL factor and the fact that I think he is going to put up some sick numbers he could end up being the highest paid Oiler for a few seasons.

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07-22-2013, 07:58 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by skorf View Post
It definitely could be tight cap-wise next year (though half the league could be tight)

Capgeek is showing 33.5 next year for (eberle, hall, gagner, perron, yakupov, gordon, joensuu, smid, ference)

lets say nuge gets 6, jschultz 4.5, dubnyk 4.5 (this is likely low, a replacement gets at least that much too, smith got 5.6 million and he's at least comparable, i'd say dubnyk>smith even), petry 3

that's up to 51.5 (say cap is 70 million next year)

add in 1.2 for klefbom (he should be on the team next year) and we're up to 52.7 million. With 8 forwards, 5 defense, 1 goalie

if cap is 70 million, that's 9 guys to make 17.3 million. Which is feasible, just we're not looking at anymore impact players
1 backup goalie (bachman or labarbara), 5 forwards (lander resigned, Jones maybe, Acton, Hamilton, Pitlick?, FA), 2 defense (likely out of Larsen, Grebs, Belov, Nschultz?, Potter?)
I think Marincin will get a good look from the Oilers for the 14-15 season too.

The one smart thing we've done with our cap structure is Hall/Eberle are the only two guys with contracts over 4 years in length.

Everyone else is 2-3 years should be winding down aside from the core pieces (Yak, JSchultz, RNH).

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07-22-2013, 08:03 PM
  #29
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Seeing some of these ridiculous numbers for J.Schultz is making me have a lollergasm. He's not a top pairing defenseman. He's going to eat Voynov/Shattenkirk money.

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07-22-2013, 08:05 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by The Perfect Human View Post
Seeing some of these ridiculous numbers for J.Schultz is making me have a lollergasm. He's not a top pairing defenseman. He's going to eat Voynov/Shattenkirk money.
Which on a rising cap gets him into the $4.5-$5.5 range. Salaries escalate with a rising cap.

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07-22-2013, 08:10 PM
  #31
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With only 2 commited D contracts heading into next season you got to think Mac-T is posturing for some of the heady UFA class of the 2014 off-season on the blue-line:

Bouwmeester, Phaneuf, Markov, Girardi, Ericsson, etc.

Petry and Schultz will likely get extensions (both UFA's).

Bouw/Phaneuf Schultz
Smid Petry
Ference Klefbom
Belov

Not bad huh?

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07-22-2013, 08:10 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Soundwave View Post
Which on a rising cap gets him into the $4.5-$5.5 range. Salaries escalate with a rising cap.
Don't know why Mac-T is delaying an extension on his contract. Might as well lock him up while his peers are all signing for the lower cap.

Must be the Schultz camp posturing for a big extension - he knows how to get what he wants - look what he did with ANA.

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07-22-2013, 08:23 PM
  #33
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I think that the cap raises next season to 70-72 million. Hemsky, Schultz, Smyth will be gone and replaced by cheaper players more suited to the role of 3rd/4th line winger and 3rd pairing Dman. We could easily sign RNH and Schultz to 6 mil contracts if it came down to it.

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07-22-2013, 08:28 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by The Perfect Human View Post
With only 2 commited D contracts heading into next season you got to think Mac-T is posturing for some of the heady UFA class of the 2014 off-season on the blue-line:

Bouwmeester, Phaneuf, Markov, Girardi, Ericsson, etc.

Petry and Schultz will likely get extensions (both UFA's).

Bouw/Phaneuf Schultz
Smid Petry
Ference Klefbom
Belov

Not bad huh?
I doubt it. With our long term salary structure we can't afford to take on another $5-$6 million d-man IMO.

We gotta now see if our scouts have done their job and have Klefbom, Nurse, and Marincin slot into the roster over the next few years.

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07-22-2013, 08:29 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Perfect Human View Post
With only 2 commited D contracts heading into next season you got to think Mac-T is posturing for some of the heady UFA class of the 2014 off-season on the blue-line:

Bouwmeester, Phaneuf, Markov, Girardi, Ericsson, etc.

Petry and Schultz will likely get extensions (both UFA's).

Bouw/Phaneuf Schultz
Smid Petry
Ference Klefbom
Belov

Not bad huh?
Pretty much what I'm thinking too, we went all in on the "big fish" Clarkson this year, if a Defensman like that hits the market you can bet MacT will probably be all in.

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07-22-2013, 08:29 PM
  #36
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Drew this up for Summer 2014 changes:


Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / RNH ($5.750m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
David Perron ($3.813m) / Sam Gagner ($4.800m) / Nail Yakupov ($3.775m)
Jesse Joensuu ($0.950m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Jannik Hansen ($2.250m)
4LW ($1.000m) / Anton Lander ($0.850m) / 4RW ($1.000m)

Dion Phaneuf ($5.80m) / Justin Schultz ($4.500m)
Ladislav Smid ($3.500m) / Jeff Petry ($3.250m)
Andrew Ference ($3.250m) / Oscar Klefbom ($1.244m)
GOALTENDERS
Devyn Dubnyk ($4.000m)
Jason LaBarbera ($1.000m)

------

SALARY CAP: ????
CAP PAYROLL: $65,731,667; (1,431,667 over 12-13 hit, not considering bonus cushion)


If the cap moves up a solid 3-4M, considering bonus cushions, Oilers won't be looking too bad headed forward with cap set to rise 3-4M a year.

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07-22-2013, 08:31 PM
  #37
Joey Moss
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Next year..

Taylor Hall [$6,000,000] - Sam Gagner [$4,800,000] - Nail Yakupov [$3,775,000]
David Perron [$3,812,500] - Ryan N.Hopkins [$6,000,000] - Jordan Eberle [$6,000,000]
___________________ - Boyd Gordon [$3,000,000] - ___________________
Jesse Joensuu [$950,000] - Anton Lander [$1,200,000] - ___________________

Andrew Ference [$3,250,000] - Justin Schultz [$5,000,000]
Ladislav Smid [$3,500,000] - Jeff Petry [$2,500,000]
Oscar Klefbom [$1,244,167] - Anton Belov [$1,500,000]
Phillip Larsen [$1,200,000]

Devan Dubnyk [$4,000,000]
_____________

$57,731,667
$6,568,333 in cap space with cap likely going up..

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07-22-2013, 08:35 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by shizan View Post
I don't think the oilers have to worry about the cap until Eberle than Hall's contracts are up. Look at Pittsburgh and Chicago's roster's each have a core of 6 players making over 5 million a year. This year is likely the lowest cap number we will see for a while and if these teams can get their core under the cap I don't see why the Oil wont be able to. Nuge will likely get the same or similar contract to Hall and Eberle. HOPEFULLY Yakupov the same, but with the KHL factor and the fact that I think he is going to put up some sick numbers he could end up being the highest paid Oiler for a few seasons.
Well I shouldn't say we have to lose any one in particular, just that eventually we will have to lose some one. I am sure we can keep some core group, but, some one will have to go. Chicago lost a lot after they won their first cup, my point being, hey.....lets just win that cup first.

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07-22-2013, 08:36 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by OILERS91 View Post
This taken from the following source

"And Schultz? Well, that goal gave him eight on the season, which put him in the top 10 in goals among defensemen, which also paid him a performance bonus of $1.17 million."

http://www.thehockeynews.com/article...1-million.html
I wont lie some of the goal celebrations in game 82 were really embarrassing and even more embarrassing when you found out why they were celebrating the way they were.

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07-22-2013, 08:36 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Perfect Human View Post
Drew this up for Summer 2014 changes:


Taylor Hall ($6.000m) / RNH ($5.750m) / Jordan Eberle ($6.000m)
David Perron ($3.813m) / Sam Gagner ($4.800m) / Nail Yakupov ($3.775m)
Jesse Joensuu ($0.950m) / Boyd Gordon ($3.000m) / Jannik Hansen ($2.250m)
4LW ($1.000m) / Anton Lander ($0.850m) / 4RW ($1.000m)

Dion Phaneuf ($5.80m) / Justin Schultz ($4.500m)
Ladislav Smid ($3.500m) / Jeff Petry ($3.250m)
Andrew Ference ($3.250m) / Oscar Klefbom ($1.244m)
GOALTENDERS
Devyn Dubnyk ($4.000m)
Jason LaBarbera ($1.000m)

------

SALARY CAP: ????
CAP PAYROLL: $65,731,667; (1,431,667 over 12-13 hit, not considering bonus cushion)


If the cap moves up a solid 3-4M, considering bonus cushions, Oilers won't be looking too bad headed forward with cap set to rise 3-4M a year.
If RNH puts up a good season next year you can safely bet he will get the same contract as Hall and Ebs I think. I think the Schultz and Petry estimates are pretty reasonable.

Phaneuf will go for alot more than 5.8 as will Hansen. I'd put there UFA market value at something like 7.5M and 3.5M knowing the UFA market today.

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07-22-2013, 08:43 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Happy Hallidays View Post
If RNH puts up a good season next year you can safely bet he will get the same contract as Hall and Ebs I think. I think the Schultz and Petry estimates are pretty reasonable.

Phaneuf will go for alot more than 5.8 as will Hansen. I'd put there UFA market value at something like 7.5M and 3.5M knowing the UFA market today.
I would not be interested in Phanuef I see him get beat too many times wide. Will be interesting to see how Belov and Klefbom play this year. I hope Nurse tears it up in the CHL.

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07-22-2013, 08:49 PM
  #42
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I would not be interested in Phanuef I see him get beat too many times wide. Will be interesting to see how Belov and Klefbom play this year. I hope Nurse tears it up in the CHL.
I'd personally take Bouwmeester over Phaneuf anyday anyways. Bouw would thrive playing with our group of forwards, playing a possession type game and would be awesome with J Schultz.

Bouwmeester - J Schultz
Smid - Petry
Ference - Klefbom
Belov
Marincin
Nurse

That's easily playoff caliber defense, I would be actually extremely confident with that group.

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07-22-2013, 09:21 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by OILERS91 View Post
This taken from the following source

"And Schultz? Well, that goal gave him eight on the season, which put him in the top 10 in goals among defensemen, which also paid him a performance bonus of $1.17 million."

http://www.thehockeynews.com/article...1-million.html
I wonder if those are pro-rated?

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07-22-2013, 09:22 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by aleshemsky83 View Post
I wont lie some of the goal celebrations in game 82 were really embarrassing and even more embarrassing when you found out why they were celebrating the way they were.
You'd be celebrating too if you just got a million dollars.

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07-23-2013, 07:28 AM
  #45
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I think that the cap raises next season to 70-72 million. Hemsky, Schultz, Smyth will be gone and replaced by cheaper players more suited to the role of 3rd/4th line winger and 3rd pairing Dman. We could easily sign RNH and Schultz to 6 mil contracts if it came down to it.
Just curious why you think this will happen.

Stan Bowman made some off the cuff comment about a $75M cap next year but it seems almost impossible to justify such a claim.

The cap at $64.3M is already inflated. Based on the last full season it should be at about $62.6M. The $CDN has also dropped since then by between 5-6 cents. Every 1 cent drop in the $CDN drags the cap down by about $200K. So assuming the $CDN stays where it is, to get to a cap of $70M you would need organic growth of about 16%.

If Hemsky stays the whole year I think there is a pretty decent chance that the Oilers go over the cap and take a penalty next year. If I had to guess I'd say about $2M might be fair.

I think they are fine going forward as far as their current roster is concerned. But they have certainly taken a fair bit of flexibility out of play.

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07-23-2013, 08:14 AM
  #46
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Just curious why you think this will happen.

Stan Bowman made some off the cuff comment about a $75M cap next year but it seems almost impossible to justify such a claim.

The cap at $64.3M is already inflated. Based on the last full season it should be at about $62.6M. The $CDN has also dropped since then by between 5-6 cents. Every 1 cent drop in the $CDN drags the cap down by about $200K. So assuming the $CDN stays where it is, to get to a cap of $70M you would need organic growth of about 16%.

If Hemsky stays the whole year I think there is a pretty decent chance that the Oilers go over the cap and take a penalty next year. If I had to guess I'd say about $2M might be fair.

I think they are fine going forward as far as their current roster is concerned. But they have certainly taken a fair bit of flexibility out of play.
ELC's hitting 8 million of the 9.15 million in bonuses is probably a reach, don't you think? I would be suprised even if we keep Hemsky that we would have a cap penalty going into 2014-15.

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07-23-2013, 08:27 AM
  #47
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ELC's hitting 8 million of the 9.15 million in bonuses is probably a reach, don't you think? I would be suprised even if we keep Hemsky that we would have a cap penalty going into 2014-15.
I still think that it's likely that a defender is moved, possibly in a deal along with Hemsky. Although I think that Hemmer might very well be retained and moved later in the year. A team that loses a top six winger to injury and needs a replacement or a contending team going into the playoffs might find Hemsky to be an attractive option. I certainly wouldn't be at all surprised if Nick Schultz was the defender who is on his way out of town. We have a lot of defenseman now, and Nick wasn't great last season.

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07-23-2013, 09:01 AM
  #48
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Clearly we should trade one of Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yakupov, Gagner and Schultz in order to make room for Hemsky, Smyth and N. Schultz.


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07-23-2013, 09:09 AM
  #49
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Seeing some of these ridiculous numbers for J.Schultz is making me have a lollergasm. He's not a top pairing defenseman. He's going to eat Voynov/Shattenkirk money.
None of us really know what Schultz will do this year.

At the same age, he slightly outperformed Voynov and Shattenkirk despite those two having NHL experience and Schultz having a well documented difficulty adjusting to the long schedule. Add to that, his domination in the AHL, numbers that Voynov could not touch, and it becomes very legitimate to think that Schultz will rocket past the production of your 2 comparables this upcoming year.

Or he may stagnate, who really knows. He could be making anywhere from 4 million on a LTC to 6 million...all depends on performance this year and I think both sides (low and high salary end) have valid points to think the way they do.

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07-23-2013, 03:42 PM
  #50
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ELC's hitting 8 million of the 9.15 million in bonuses is probably a reach, don't you think? I would be suprised even if we keep Hemsky that we would have a cap penalty going into 2014-15.
It depends on how the Schedule B bonuses are worded. With first overalls and with a guy like Schultz it is possible that the bonuses are relatively generous. But it also does not have to be $8M out of $9.15 to get around a $2M penalty. That said after looking closer I think $2M overage might be on the high side. But $1M I don't think is out of the question if Hemsky stays the whole year.

The Oilers currently have about $58.8M in salary on the books with 24 on the roster. Get rid of Potter and that is $58.1M. With the glut of defenders my guess is we will see some "short term injuries" popping up on a regular basis and as we know the Oilers do tend to have their share of nicks and bruises. So based on recent history short term injuries could easily take this number to $60M possibly even $61M especially if Eager makes the team. Last year for example call-ups and extras were somewhere around $2-2.5M prorated to 48 games with a similar number in 2010-2011.

That means that even with a modest assumption of $60M in final salary, that to get a penalty you only need $4.3M in bonuses. If Yakupov, Schultz and Nuge play the whole year they will pretty much be sure to get the Schedule A bonuses of $850K each. If one of them hits any of their schedule B bonuses there is a pretty decent chance that the Oilers go over the cap.

Last year Schultz was 13th in the NHL in scoring by a dman but he was also 10th in goals. All he has to do is duplicate this or improve a little and he probably hits his full bonus. We don't know this for sure but typically max contract bonuses max out quickly.

Yakupov could with some luck could score 33-35 goals which might well be enough to hit his bonus.

None of this is reason for panic. The Oilers do have the ability to manage the cap so as to avoid penalties. BUt to do so takes some flexibility away. For example it means that they cannot take on a high salary at the deadline without shedding one. And of course there is still time left to deal Hemsky or possibly a guy like N. Schultz.

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