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The Oilers and the cap

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Old
07-23-2013, 03:00 PM
  #51
Arpeggio
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Justin Schultz could throw a bit of a wrench into the team's cap structure next year. How much of his hot start in the AHL was due to inferior competition, or was he just fatigued by the time the NHL got going? Mike Green's first season in the NHL was nothing to write home about, and he put up 56 points his second season.

I think Schultz is going to break out in a huge way offensively this year. I'm not counting out a 60 point year, and if he can even hold his own defensively, he could ask for more than Hall and Eberle, and quite legitimately. That would make things interesting, given that he's not exactly the defensive stalwart the Oilers would probably like to spend some money on next offseason.

Schultz could've cracked cracked 50 points with a hot streak if last year was a full 82 games. And he was just so dominate for the Barons. I certainly wouldn't count on him coming in below 5 million next year.

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07-23-2013, 03:11 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arpeggio View Post
Justin Schultz could throw a bit of a wrench into the team's cap structure next year. How much of his hot start in the AHL was due to inferior competition, or was he just fatigued by the time the NHL got going? Mike Green's first season in the NHL was nothing to write home about, and he put up 56 points his second season.

I think Schultz is going to break out in a huge way offensively this year. I'm not counting out a 60 point year, and if he can even hold his own defensively, he could ask for more than Hall and Eberle, and quite legitimately. That would make things interesting, given that he's not exactly the defensive stalwart the Oilers would probably like to spend some money on next offseason.

Schultz could've cracked cracked 50 points with a hot streak if last year was a full 82 games. And he was just so dominate for the Barons. I certainly wouldn't count on him coming in below 5 million next year.
This is a positive though and it's nice that we can actually consider moments like this "negative." If Schultz puts up huge numbers this season, it means he had a good season and he'll be worth the dollars he's asking for.

At that point, the Oilers would have the option of devoting a large chunk of their cap to a cornerstone defenceman or trading an asset with big-time value for a more affordable option.

I'm really not too worried about the cap long-term. Getting Hall locked in at $6M could save almost $2M a season long-term and that money could go a long way. The reality, however, is that we're going to have to be like the Hawks and have a rotating cast of depth players who will eventually price themselves out of Edmonton because of the offensive "push" they get from our stars.

There are a lot worse problems to have.

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07-23-2013, 03:32 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arpeggio View Post
Justin Schultz could throw a bit of a wrench into the team's cap structure next year. How much of his hot start in the AHL was due to inferior competition, or was he just fatigued by the time the NHL got going? Mike Green's first season in the NHL was nothing to write home about, and he put up 56 points his second season.

I think Schultz is going to break out in a huge way offensively this year. I'm not counting out a 60 point year, and if he can even hold his own defensively, he could ask for more than Hall and Eberle, and quite legitimately. That would make things interesting, given that he's not exactly the defensive stalwart the Oilers would probably like to spend some money on next offseason.

Schultz could've cracked cracked 50 points with a hot streak if last year was a full 82 games. And he was just so dominate for the Barons. I certainly wouldn't count on him coming in below 5 million next year.
Would be a nice problem to have, too much talent and not enough cap space.

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07-23-2013, 04:07 PM
  #54
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I really don't see Nuge getting 6 mil next year. He really didn't have a great year last year, if you look at the 2nd years ebs and hall had. They were much better. Nuge will have to have a monster year to get a 6 mil contract. I can see him signing a 2 year/8or9 mill deal if he puts up 50-60 points. He had the same surgery hall had, and it took hall a while into the season to feel "normal" and Nuge had the surgery much later. I think we will be fine in terms of the cap. As Nailor states, its a good problem to have.

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07-23-2013, 04:39 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arpeggio View Post
Justin Schultz could throw a bit of a wrench into the team's cap structure next year. How much of his hot start in the AHL was due to inferior competition, or was he just fatigued by the time the NHL got going? Mike Green's first season in the NHL was nothing to write home about, and he put up 56 points his second season.

I think Schultz is going to break out in a huge way offensively this year. I'm not counting out a 60 point year, and if he can even hold his own defensively, he could ask for more than Hall and Eberle, and quite legitimately. That would make things interesting, given that he's not exactly the defensive stalwart the Oilers would probably like to spend some money on next offseason.

Schultz could've cracked cracked 50 points with a hot streak if last year was a full 82 games. And he was just so dominate for the Barons. I certainly wouldn't count on him coming in below 5 million next year.
Not even OEL makes more than Hall/Eberle. Hell even Karlsson only makes 500k more. Unless Schultz wins a Norris trophy, he wont get a penny over 6 million, and will most likely be in the 4.5-5 million range.

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07-23-2013, 05:25 PM
  #56
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The cap at $64.3M is already inflated. Based on the last full season it should be at about $62.6M. The $CDN has also dropped since then by between 5-6 cents. Every 1 cent drop in the $CDN drags the cap down by about $200K. So assuming the $CDN stays where it is, to get to a cap of $70M you would need organic growth of about 16%.
Good analysis. I think you'd need 12% growth on that given a sustained 5 cent drop in the CAD to get to a $70M cap. Regardless, you won't see the cap at that number. I can't see it getting over $68 M.

Where the team stands now, using one of the compliance buyouts on Belanger looks like a weak move. Hopefully MacT can shed some salary.

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07-23-2013, 06:03 PM
  #57
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Even if Schultz and RNH both have great years (which is good people, lol)

Hall (6) RNH (6) Eberle (6)
Perron (3.8) Gagner (4.8) Yakupov (3.7)
Jonessu (900k) Gordon (3) Blank (2.5)
Blank (1) Lander (1.25) Blank (1)
Blank (1)

Schultz (6) Smid (3.5)
Petry (3) Klefbom (1)
Ference (3.25) Larsen (1)
Marincin (1)

Dubnyk (5)
Back-Up (1)

= 64-65 million assuming Yakupov at the full 3.7

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07-23-2013, 06:09 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Good analysis. I think you'd need 12% growth on that given a sustained 5 cent drop in the CAD to get to a $70M cap. Regardless, you won't see the cap at that number. I can't see it getting over $68 M.

Where the team stands now, using one of the compliance buyouts on Belanger looks like a weak move. Hopefully MacT can shed some salary.
What other contracts would the Oilers need to use a compliance buyout on? As far as I am aware, the CBO could only be used this summer and next summer and the contract must have been signed pre-lockout. Therefore, the only Oilers that are eligible for a CBO are Eberle, Hall and Perron as all other players are either FAs after the 2013-2014 or were signed to deals following the lockout. So unless the Oilers were planning on picking up two additional players from other teams to use the CBO on, there was absolutely no reason not to use it on Belanger, particularly since Horcoff was traded with no salary retained.

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07-23-2013, 06:12 PM
  #59
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As long as the cap is $70+ million by the time it comes to sign Yakupov we should be ok.

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07-23-2013, 06:18 PM
  #60
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I wouldn't really worry about the cap. We won't feel the crunch immediately, and it's hard to say who will be on this team 2 years from now and what the reality of the numbers will be.

Worrying now is a little bit premature.

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07-23-2013, 06:19 PM
  #61
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What other contracts would the Oilers need to use a compliance buyout on? As far as I am aware, the CBO could only be used this summer and next summer and the contract must have been signed pre-lockout. Therefore, the only Oilers that are eligible for a CBO are Eberle, Hall and Perron as all other players are either FAs after the 2013-2014 or were signed to deals following the lockout. So unless the Oilers were planning on picking up two additional players from other teams to use the CBO on, there was absolutely no reason not to use it on Belanger, particularly since Horcoff was traded with no salary retained.
Hemsky or N. Schultz would have been better options for this season. $3.25M or $1.75M more in cap room. Given the Oilers have less than $1.4M in cap room that could have made a difference.

If MacT is able to move either of them with less salary coming back and not having to retain any salary then the point is moot.

The Horcoff deal has to be a big plus for MacT.

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07-23-2013, 06:29 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Hemsky or N. Schultz would have been better options for this season. $3.25M or $1.75M more in cap room. Given the Oilers have less than $1.4M in cap room that could have made a difference.

If MacT is able to move either of them with less salary coming back and not having to retain any salary then the point is moot.

The Horcoff deal has to be a big plus for MacT.
I guess so, but Hemsky and N. Schultz are legitimate NHL players who will have a spot on the team this year if they are not traded, Belanger not so much. Plus I believe they have too many D on the roster right now so one will need to be waived/traded (Potter? Larsen?) opening up a bit more cap room. It doesn't seem like the cap has precluded the Oilers from signing players so far this offseason. It makes sense to me that they used the CBO on Belanger rather than a regular buyout to save a bit of cap room next season, when the cap might be more of an issue.

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07-23-2013, 06:30 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Good analysis. I think you'd need 12% growth on that given a sustained 5 cent drop in the CAD to get to a $70M cap. Regardless, you won't see the cap at that number. I can't see it getting over $68 M.

Where the team stands now, using one of the compliance buyouts on Belanger looks like a weak move. Hopefully MacT can shed some salary.
My calculation was actually based on a 5 cent drop from the $62.6M. That would mean an effective cap of $61.6M from the last full year, so a mid point if 53.6M. Take out the 5% inflator and the real midpoint is $51.1M. To hit $70M with the inflator the real midpoint would have to rise to $59.1M before the inflator.

We get: growth = 100*(59.1/51.1-1)=15.7%.

In the end so long as they do not go over this year and have to take a penalty they should be ok. The cap might go up a fair bit if the dollar stabilizes and if the new Canadian TV deal is factored in for the 2014-2015 season. Typically it would only impact the 2015-2016 cap and onwards, but if it is a big increase they can factor it in early.

It is also possible that things like the extra outdoor games and a significant increase in sponsorship might make a bigger impact than I expect, but I still think $70M is extremely optimistic.

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Originally Posted by Scoobs View Post
I wouldn't really worry about the cap. We won't feel the crunch immediately, and it's hard to say who will be on this team 2 years from now and what the reality of the numbers will be.

Worrying now is a little bit premature.
I actually think that the cap is more of an immediate problem than it is a long term issue. One nice thing about long term contracts for the core is it allows the growth in the cap to work for you. If there is a loss of flexibility it could be 2014-2015 that is the worst year in that respect. It might be tough to take on an unexpected big contract if Schultz and Nuge have big years. Of course there is always the option of bridge deasl for one or the other but that carries its own risk.

Nothing to panic about though.

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07-23-2013, 07:41 PM
  #64
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I think we will be fine as we are now.

I think the point people are trying to make is that we are a lot closer to the cap then we may think and this is likely the team we have (unless we make some trades).

It is completely unrealistic to think that we can grab grabovski this year or go and get phaneuf or someone else next year unless we're willing to part with one of our current guys.

-Hemsky's and Nick Schultz's money will go Petry, Nuge, and JSchultz + we'd have to bring in 2 likely cheaper roster spot guys as well
-Ryan Smyth's money will go to Dubnyk + Smyth's roster spot replacement
-Lander likely gets a raise too.

-I guess we could sign guys for 650k or whatever minimum is to fill out our 3rd and 4th lines and make a splash for Phaneuf or someone. Only issue is then we are stuck with a very bad bottom 6 again

-So the only real cap space we have to use is with how much the cap goes up, and even if it goes up 4-5 million. We would have to be careful to go right up to it since the following year we have to give Yakupov a raise and we will not have a Hemsky/NSchultz coming off of the books then

-I think we could fit another 2.5-3 million dollar player in on our 3rd line next year, but thinking that we will sign the biggest name free agents next year is unrealistic

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07-23-2013, 10:24 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nailor Hopberle View Post
We're fine for this year if we keep our team "as-is".

Next season we drop Smyth, Hemsky & N. Schulz which will amount to over $10M in savings, players who really don't bring much to the table or aren't a fit. We should have around $12M to play with to sign J. Schultz & RNH and that's assuming the cap stays the same.
This.

The salary cap must go up.

Remember people saying how the global economic crisis could bring league revenues way down? Well that didn't happen. It's gone up every year with the exception of last year when they cut the player's revenue share.

I'll admit that it doesn't look good when you've got legendary cities like Detroit attempting to file for bankruptcy, but the salary cap is still probably due to go up 3~4M after next season and then I imagine we'll see it increase slow and steady year by year.

That's just the nature of inflation.

The big question is whether we'll have the cap space 4~5 years from now. If Gagner isn't here, how much is the new guy gonna cost? Petry, Scultz, Klefbom and Yakupov could all be on some expensive contracts.

I think that we're all hoping that cheaper options in Gernat, Musil, Marincin and Nurse should be contributing by then, so if we're lucky we won't have to worry about this a ton.

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07-23-2013, 10:48 PM
  #66
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My calculation was actually based on a 5 cent drop from the $62.6M. That would mean an effective cap of $61.6M from the last full year, so a mid point if 53.6M. Take out the 5% inflator and the real midpoint is $51.1M. To hit $70M with the inflator the real midpoint would have to rise to $59.1M before the inflator.

We get: growth = 100*(59.1/51.1-1)=15.7%.
Just trying to wrap my head around your analysis with the following questions.

The $64.1M was inflated and $62.6M was the 'real' number. Was it inflated as part of the CBA?

The 'mid-point' between the cap floor and ceiling, I take it?

Looks like the 'inflator' is the (-1) in your denominator. Is that part of the calculation outlined in the CBA? Or am I completely off-base on this one?

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07-23-2013, 10:57 PM
  #67
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I guess so, but Hemsky and N. Schultz are legitimate NHL players who will have a spot on the team this year if they are not traded, Belanger not so much. Plus I believe they have too many D on the roster right now so one will need to be waived/traded (Potter? Larsen?) opening up a bit more cap room.
N. Schultz is the guy I wanted to see bought out. $3.5M is a lot of dough for a third pairing guy.

It will be a very disappointing camp for the Oilers if the top two pairings aren't some combination of J. Schultz/Smid/Petry/Ference.

Pleasant surprises from any two of Klefbom, Belov, Garbagekov or Larsen and you have a the most expensive 7D in the league.

Cannot see Potter sticking around under pretty much any circumstances.

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07-23-2013, 11:38 PM
  #68
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Another point: I think people get nervous about the cap because they remember Chicago's situation all too well... but we don't actually have any bad contracts like they did. Campbell for 7M and I can't remember what Huet and Bulin wall were making. They had a couple of powerpaid contracts that were really holding the down.

One could debate Hemsky being worth 5M, Nick Schultz being worth 3.5M, Ryan Smyth being worth 2M and if Eberle is going to earn his 6M next year(I think he will), but we don't have any players that are being overpaid on the scale that those Hawks were.

We need to remember that.

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07-24-2013, 12:01 AM
  #69
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Another point: I think people get nervous about the cap because they remember Chicago's situation all too well... but we don't actually have any bad contracts like they did. Campbell for 7M and I can't remember what Huet and Bulin wall were making. They had a couple of powerpaid contracts that were really holding the down.

One could debate Hemsky being worth 5M, Nick Schultz being worth 3.5M, Ryan Smyth being worth 2M and if Eberle is going to earn his 6M next year(I think he will), but we don't have any players that are being overpaid on the scale that those Hawks were.

We need to remember that.
Dubnyk could become overpaid by next year depending on how well his stats are this year and how his contract negotiations go.

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07-24-2013, 12:16 AM
  #70
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Let's get serious, his comparables are guys like Josi (4M), Voynov (4.166M), Yandle (5.25M), Kronwall (4.75M), Erhoff (4M), and so on.

So the range is fairly well established at between 4-5.25M depending on the player's value to their team, performance in the contract year, etc.

This is the 2nd tier, which is where Schultz belongs. They Oilers should try to lock him in for 6-8 (max) years at around a 4.25M cap hit.

6M is for guys who have Norris winning or nominated seasons. Even then, some teams probably regret giving that hefty a pay day to their players (Mike Green for instance is more like a 5.25M player than a 6.1M player).

If Schultz has a 15-35-50 PTS, -5, 12 PIMS, 20:00 MINS/GM that still doesn't justify a 6M contract.

On a shorter term deal, I would actually hold the line at 3M. Subban is on a two-year deal for under 3M AVV ffs.


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07-24-2013, 12:33 AM
  #71
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Dubnyk could become overpaid by next year depending on how well his stats are this year and how his contract negotiations go.
Given his play last season $3.5M means he's arguably overpaid now?!

If he earns $5M on a 4 or 5 year term so be it.

He'll have to improve in a number of areas to get there.

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07-24-2013, 12:40 AM
  #72
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Given his play last season $3.5M means he's arguably overpaid now?!

If he earns $5M on a 4 or 5 year term so be it.

He'll have to improve in a number of areas to get there.
I meant next year, as in the season after this upcoming one. Should have been more clear. I don't think a 1B goalie like Dubnyk - that's what I think his ceiling is - should be getting more than 3 or 4 million a year.

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07-24-2013, 12:48 AM
  #73
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Dubnyk could become overpaid by next year depending on how well his stats are this year and how his contract negotiations go.
I kinda disagree. I think there are too many starting goalies emerging right now.

I could see Dubby getting 12M over 3 years if we want to stick with him after next season, but there's no way he's getting more than that.

He played quite well last year but that weak goal he lets in in the first period of pretty much every game is a backbreaker. He needs to cut that out. He needs to come to the games feeling like he's already been scored on. After that weak goal he always looks really solid.

Another thing to ponder if whether or not the smaller equipment is going to effect him.

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07-24-2013, 12:58 AM
  #74
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Originally Posted by Hemsky4PM View Post
Let's get serious, his comparables are guys like Josi (4M), Voynov (4.166M), Yandle (5.25M), Kronwall (4.75M), Erhoff (4M), and so on.

So the range is fairly well established at between 4-5.25M depending on the player's value to their team, performance in the contract year, etc.

This is the 2nd tier, which is where Schultz belongs. They Oilers should try to lock him in for 6-8 (max) years at around a 4.25M cap hit.

6M is for guys who have Norris winning or nominated seasons. Even then, some teams probably regret giving that hefty a pay day to their players (Mike Green for instance is more like a 5.25M player than a 6.1M player).

If Schultz has a 15-35-50 PTS, -5, 12 PIMS, 20:00 MINS/GM that still doesn't justify a 6M contract.

On a shorter term deal, I would actually hold the line at 3M. Subban is on a two-year deal for under 3M AVV ffs.
But you also have to consider when that contract was signed and where the salary cap was when he signed it. % of player salaries at the time the contract was signed if very relevant.

At 4.8M per season Sam Gagner signed for 7.4% of the total 64.3M cap. I think that looks like a solid deal for Edmonton now, but if the salary cap is at 70M in the last season of his contract that's a freaking steal at 6.8% when Gagner should be in his prime.

I'm guessing he'll be able to command upwards of 5.8M on his next contract. Well, assuming he stays healthy.

As for Justin Schultz, I could see him signing a bridge contract. Can't guess what the length will be, but I imagine he'll get around 4M and if he continues to sparkle and shine Edmonton will probably be forced to offer him upwards of 6M.

I wish we could afford to keep Klefbom, Schultz, Petry, Smid , Nurse, Musil and Marincin forever... but it looks like that's going to get way too expensive.

I love what Klefbom has to offer, but I have this crazy idea in my head that Nurse is going to top out at 6"6 230 pounds. Nurse and Justin Schultz will be perfect for oneanother. Klefbom and Petry will be a truely elite 2nd pairing. It's my opinion that Petry already is a #2 d-man. He's just been snakebitten with the offense so far.

Lots of these guys are going to cost a ton of bucks down the line. Just be happy we don't have Sather or Milbury running the ship.

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07-24-2013, 01:03 AM
  #75
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I kinda disagree. I think there are too many starting goalies emerging right now.

I could see Dubby getting 12M over 3 years if we want to stick with him after next season, but there's no way he's getting more than that.

He played quite well last year but that weak goal he lets in in the first period of pretty much every game is a backbreaker. He needs to cut that out. He needs to come to the games feeling like he's already been scored on. After that weak goal he always looks really solid.

Another thing to ponder if whether or not the smaller equipment is going to effect him.
I don't see Dubnyk getting the type of offer you outlined. If Dubnyk plays basically at the same level as last year $4m aav on a 3 year term is what a reasonable offer would be.

I just don't see the team even bothering to keep him around if he doesn't take a big step forward next year.

I wouldn't say he let in a weak goal every game in the first period. Sometimes he saved the softies for the second or third period.

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