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The Out of Town Thread part LXVI - All Talk From Around the League Here

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Old
07-26-2013, 09:13 AM
  #201
Monctonscout
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Relative to whom, exactly? And where/what are the "excuses" you're talking about? Where you say "forced", I say "fooled".



I know, right.
Relative to other players given all those opportunities.

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07-26-2013, 09:21 AM
  #202
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He wasn't given prime ice time from day 1 like Gagner. The oilers have been giving Gagner top ice time and PP time the last 4 years to try and justify picking him so eraly. Simply not worth that kind of money.
Seriously... you guys need to step back into reality here. Last year Gagner ranked 5th in ES TOI/game among Oilers forwards, 5th in PP TOI/game. In '11/12 he was 3rd in ES TOI/game, 6th in PP TOI/game. In '10/11 he was 4th in ES TOI/game, 4th in PP TOI/game. And he consequently finished 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in team scoring.

Everyone, including the Oilers, knows that Gagner (along with Hall, Eberle, and RNH) isn't the glaring reason for their disappointing goal production and team fortunes - hence why they're all still under contract with the team into the future (RNH likely to be re-signed next year, of course).

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Relative to other players given all those opportunities.
So you say so easily, yet struggle so mightily to present/prove.

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07-26-2013, 09:25 AM
  #203
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Seriously... you guys need to step back into reality here. Last year Gagner ranked 5th in ES TOI/game among Oilers forwards, 5th in PP TOI/game. In '11/12 he was 3rd in ES TOI/game, 6th in PP TOI/game. In '10/11 he was 4th in ES TOI/game, 4th in PP TOI/game. And he consequently finished 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in team scoring.

Everyone, including the Oilers, knows that Gagner (along with Hall, Eberle, and RNH) isn't the glaring reason for their disappointing goal production and team fortunes - hence why they're all still under contract with the team into the future (RNH likely to be re-signed next year, of course).



So you say so easily, yet struggle so mightily to present/prove.
Gagner is part of the problem in that he is small, soft and one dimensional and goes on extended slumps. Not worth that kind of money.

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07-26-2013, 09:36 AM
  #204
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Gagner is part of the problem in that he is small, soft and one dimensional and goes on extended slumps. Not worth that kind of money.
He's not "small", his perception of being "soft" stems mainly from an issue with balance in puck battles that he addressed in the off season last year, his "one dimension" is pretty damn good, and can you even tell me what some of Gagner's most glaring "slumps" have been in recent years? Do you even go through game logs to double check the things you're saying?

He had one 7 game drought at the end of last year, and one at the beginning of the year before. Check out the group of defensemen they had moving the puck to the forwards over those time frames, too. Other than that, he very rarely goes 2 or 3 games without a point. Even Eberle had a 6 game pointless drought last year, and Hall even had a 5 gamer, so... again, apples to apples instead of oranges, he's no more affected than anyone else on those Oilers teams in the same situation.

The Oilers, as a team, have repeatedly had a hard time keeping all their scorers on the board all the time - especially the guys who figure in around 4th/5th/6th in icetime among forwards in given game situations.

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07-26-2013, 09:57 AM
  #205
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[QUOTE][QUOTE=Ohashi_Jouzu;69633829]It's blatantly obvious to anyone who has seen them play that he out-produced RNH AND Eberle (and Yakupov) last year...Funny how you use 1 year comparisons when it suits you and then disregard 1 year comaprisons when it goes agaisnt your arguement.


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And that realization usually takes the entirety of a player's development during their RFA years - of which Gagner has multiple remaining - to make that determination. And he's carrying a significant amount of his team's offensive load while improving, so... where are you coming from and where are you trying to go with this??
I think 6 full years of which he was given the most playing time is enough information to determine whether a player has achieved his potential or not. This isn't a case of McCarron being a "potential" bust or not. Gagner has been playing for SIX YEARS! and never broken 50 points.

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"Prime position" is relative, and again you're showing very little familiarity with the Oilers over the past 5 or so seasons. Last year he out-produced Eberle and RNH. The year before he still out-produced a veteran Hemsky on a $4.1 million contract and finished just a handful of points behind RNH and Hall. The year before that he was only one point behind team-leading Eberle, tied with Hall and Hemsky. The year before that he led every Oiler except Penner in scoring, despite only playing 60-some games. Relative to his teammates, that's a pretty decent pattern of production for a guy who is, just now, 23 years old.
Prime position is not relative. When you're given more miinutes than every other forward on your team and put on the PP and offensive positions as he's the #2 centre on the team. It's not like he wasn't given a chance to produce offence in his role. Acting like he wasn't given every chance to produce offense is a little disingenuous.

As for comparing him to Eberle, get real. Eberle is averaging .80 PPG and is arguably their best forward. RNH is averaging .75 PPG and has only played 2 seasons.

Again, you use long term trends to say Gagner still can't be assesed properly and than compare him to 2 players who have better numbers over a longer and a shorter period of time and who are both obviously much better players. Your comparison makes little sense.

As for Hemski, come on. He's been done for some time in Edmonton, so much so that the GM said that he's actively trying to trade him. Even at that, he's still a career .76PPG player and has has way better seasons in his first 6 seasons with Edmonton. In fact, every player you comapred him to has had much better seasons than Gagner has had since joining the team compared to Gagner who since his first season has averaged in the low 40's for points in a season. He's another player who I said got paid waay too much on his last $5M, 2 year deal. Ironic how you're using him as a comparison to Gagne now.



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Perhaps not, but you certainly have to watch him, and the Oilers, a LOT more.
So how many hours do I need to watch him play in your arbitrary world to qualify as a professional on the topic of Sam Gagner? 10 hrs? 15? How many hours of your day do you dedicate to scouting Sam Gagner? Maybe that's why you think he's so amazing. All those man hours observing him are bound to make you biased.



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Well, I've already shown that you're out to lunch coming at it from this direction.
I don't think so. In fact, I think you're showing quite the opposite. You've tried to drill down so hard that Gagner is worth all that money that you're not seeing the forest from the leaves. He has NOT produced at the NHL level at the pace a 5th pick overall should. He has not proven he's a 2nd line centre in the NHL from a point production standpoint. How many 2nd line centres have never scored more than 49 points and average around 42 point per year? Not many.



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He has, in fact, had A better result. Once. And purely statistically at that, while enjoying all the opportunity/ice time advantages that Gagner had, only on a better team. And was demonstrably a much worse player at the time of signing/extension
Using 1 year analysis to prove your point goes counter to your previous point, but I digress. I can see you wanting to make this a Sam Gagner vs DD arguement as it's the only way you can justify saying how amazing Gagner is and how he deserves that $4.8MM. Someone always looks better when they're standing next to an ugly person. Unfortunatly for you, this is an arguement you're making with yourself. I'll repeat for the 8th time. I NEVER said DD was a better player than Gagner.

I did say that for the one year DD was given the opportunity to produce, he did. Gagner in year 4 of opportunity still has not. This is not an opionion as much as a statistical fact. Take it as you will.



Quote:
Even if I don't think Gagner is quite worth $4.8 million, it's a struggle to determine exactly how much less he "should" get. But ultimately I don't have to convince anyone. He already has the contract and is twice the player you're choosing to compare him to, who isn't getting paid much less.
The NHL is littered with players making waaay more than they should. Most times it's pretty obvious when this happens. Fans, pundits etc tend not to be off the mark too much when it comes to a players value. This is just another case of a player being paid too much for what he produces. Further to my original point, it also makes DD's contract more palatable knowing that guys like Gagne and his wopping 49 points, 6 years ago btw, are being paid even more ridiculous amounts.




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At this point, I'm content to simply convince anyone reading that you have no idea what you're talking about. It has little to do with Gagner and Desharnais specifically, although they are the subjects of this comparison.
That's fairly obvious with your arguements. You've lost all objectivity in your posts and are making this personal. It's not to me. It's pretty simple no matter how much you try to make this some complex, incoherent rant to justify your point. Gagner just isn't that good and not worth almost $5MM per.

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Regarding your addition of the Patches strawman to the already existing Filatov one, I encourage you to go around the league and put every player in order according to what you think their "worth" is. Enjoy having your head explode when you realize that there isn't a linear assessment of "worth", nor a league-wide compensation scheme that exactly matches it.
I'm sure is you asked anyone around the league if they'd rather have Patches or Gagner at their current salaries, I don't think you'd get much of an arguement as to who people would rather have.

As I said before, the NHL is littered with bad contracts, I guess we can add gagner to that pile.


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Old
07-26-2013, 10:04 AM
  #206
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The response for this lolfest will have to wait until after work.

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07-26-2013, 10:22 AM
  #207
shutehinside
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
The response for this lolfest will have to wait until after work.
I look forward to reading your self deluded comments on the greatness of Sam Gagner and all that he's accomplished in his sterling 6 year career.

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07-26-2013, 10:40 AM
  #208
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Originally Posted by shutehinside View Post
I look forward to reading your self deluded comments on the greatness of Sam Gagner and all that he's accomplished in his sterling 6 year career.
The fact that he has had a 6 year career and he's only 24 says a lot. Playing with talented wingers and at least 1 good pmd Gagner can put up 60-80 points a season.

The oilers are paying for his potential 60-80 point season not his 40 point seasons he put up as a teenager / young adult.

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07-26-2013, 10:44 AM
  #209
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Originally Posted by Smoky Thompson View Post
The fact that he has had a 6 year career and he's only 24 says a lot. Playing with talented wingers and at least 1 good pmd Gagner can put up 60-80 points a season.

The oilers are paying for his potential 60-80 point season not his 40 point seasons he put up as a teenager / young adult.
Are you trying to tell us he is lacking talented wingers and a PMD? .. Might wanna look at the Oilers roster again.

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07-26-2013, 10:48 AM
  #210
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Originally Posted by Dagistitsyn View Post
Are you trying to tell us he is lacking talented wingers and a PMD? .. Might wanna look at the Oilers roster again.
That Oilers team is really bad at everything, Gagner's stats were deflated imo. I won't defend him as a 4.8m player because that's a ludicrous number for someone who hasn't broken 60pts but yeah, his potential is off the charts.

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07-26-2013, 10:51 AM
  #211
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Originally Posted by Smoky Thompson View Post
The fact that he has had a 6 year career and he's only 24 says a lot. Playing with talented wingers and at least 1 good pmd Gagner can put up 60-80 points a season.

The oilers are paying for his potential 60-80 point season not his 40 point seasons he put up as a teenager / young adult.
You'd think at some point he would have to justify the "potential" he supposedly has before getting the big payday. Last year was a good year for him but if you look at the overall picture it's a little underwhelming.

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07-26-2013, 11:09 AM
  #212
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The Oilers are the perfect example of why you need two way forwards to get the most of your offense. Most of that team is underachieving because they have no two-way depth.

Gagner was overpaid by about a million, but if that team somehow puts it together that contract might even look good in hindsight.

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07-26-2013, 11:11 AM
  #213
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
He wasn't given prime ice time from day 1 like Gagner. The oilers have been giving Gagner top ice time and PP time the last 4 years to try and justify picking him so eraly. Simply not worth that kind of money.
The guy was trying to pass off the argument that Gagner was used in favorable situations. Well, DD is too and he didn't produce any better for it.

My conclusion? They are both overpaid and I don't want either on my team if I'm building one.

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07-26-2013, 11:19 AM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Smoky Thompson View Post
The fact that he has had a 6 year career and he's only 24 says a lot. Playing with talented wingers and at least 1 good pmd Gagner can put up 60-80 points a season.

The oilers are paying for his potential 60-80 point season not his 40 point seasons he put up as a teenager / young adult.
It does say a lot about what the Oilers thought of him. Just because a player was drafted high doesn't alone justify their salary. Pouliot should be making a lot more if that was your only criteria. Now I'm not saying Pouliot is better than Gagner. I am saying that at some point, 6 years of sample size, potential starts to fall by the wayside and you need to start looking at actual production. To that point, Gagner is over paid as he has not produced to his current salary thus far. I don't think you need to be a genius to figure this one out. Frankly, I'm amazed that some people think his $4.8M per year contract is justified.

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Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
That Oilers team is really bad at everything, Gagner's stats were deflated imo. I won't defend him as a 4.8m player because that's a ludicrous number for someone who hasn't broken 60pts but yeah, his potential is off the charts.
The Habs were last place in the East year before last and DD had a career year. Many players have very good individual stats when their team has had bad years. Saying a team had a bad year isn't synonymous to poor individual performance.

I don't think anyone is saying Gagner doesn't have the potential to be a good player. The arguments are that he hasn't been that player yet. As such, he hasn't earned the $4.8M he got. Again, I don't see this as a point of contention as some people do. 49 points 6 years ago and 5 mediocre years thereafter shouldn't equal the contract he got. It just shouldn't.

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07-26-2013, 11:25 AM
  #215
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
The guy was trying to pass off the argument that Gagner was used in favorable situations. Well, DD is too and he didn't produce any better for it.

My conclusion? They are both overpaid and I don't want either on my team if I'm building one.
Based on his production the last 2 years(fringe 1st linem high end 2nd line) DD is a bargain at 3.5 mil cap hit. Most of his comparables are making 4.5-6 mil/year. There are not an army of players that have put up more than 88 points the last 2 seasons.


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07-26-2013, 11:27 AM
  #216
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The Habs were last place in the East year before last and DD had a career year. Many players have very good individual stats when their team has had bad years. Saying a team had a bad year isn't synonymous to poor individual performance.

I don't think anyone is saying Gagner doesn't have the potential to be a good player. The arguments are that he hasn't been that player yet. As such, he hasn't earned the $4.8M he got. Again, I don't see this as a point of contention as some people do. 49 points 6 years ago and 5 mediocre years thereafter shouldn't equal the contract he got. It just shouldn't.
The Habs weren't as bad as their record, nor were they as good as their record this year. The Oilers, however, were just as bad as their record for the past 5 years.

I don't disagree that he shouldn't have gotten 4.8m, it's a crazy amount of money, but Gagner is both really young and really talented and he's a superior player to Desharnais. That's the bottom line. I don't want Gagner at 4.8 on the Habs but at Desharnais' salary I'd take him any day.

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07-26-2013, 11:28 AM
  #217
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
The guy was trying to pass off the argument that Gagner was used in favorable situations. Well, DD is too and he didn't produce any better for it.

My conclusion? They are both overpaid and I don't want either on my team if I'm building one.
If you're talking about me, that's not at all what I said and you should go back and read exactly what I did post, twice.

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07-26-2013, 11:33 AM
  #218
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Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
The Habs weren't as bad as their record, nor were they as good as their record this year. The Oilers, however, were just as bad as their record for the past 5 years.

I don't disagree that he shouldn't have gotten 4.8m, it's a crazy amount of money, but Gagner is both really young and really talented and he's a superior player to Desharnais. That's the bottom line. I don't want Gagner at 4.8 on the Habs but at Desharnais' salary I'd take him any day.
First part is a bit a matter of semantics isn't it. Habs fell off the rails that season. I agree they were a better team than Edmonton was even though one could argue they were also less talented player for player. Doesn't change the fact they were god awful.

I agree with you on the 2nd point. Gagner is a better player than DD and has more potential. I never said otherwise. But like you, I pointed out he is grossly overpaid and over paying that much can't be justified by "potential" alone. Not after 6 years of playing in the NHL, anyways.

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07-26-2013, 11:35 AM
  #219
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Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Based on his production the last 2 years(fringe 1st linem high end 2nd line) DD is a bargain at 3.5 mil cap hit. Most of his comparables are making 4.5-6 mil/year.
if your taking in account only basic statistical observation, yes. if you dig deeper, DD is pretty useless and takes few sessions of video reviewing by opposition to completely neutralize and render DD useless. Which was the case last season. It will be fairly obvious once years roll by and DD won't repeat his features of his prime season. Unless habs become irrelevant bottom feeding team and MT decides to mimic JM's strategy of micro managing DD's ice time and role.

Gagner actually has lots of experience playing tough minutes, and from very minimal observation, he can (and has improved his 2 way game) handle it, and only will get better, mostly because he is so young.
Yes his contract might be a bit high (1 mil?) but that's mostly due to the org not having anybody to replace him in that role. i would compare that situation very vaguely to price, sort of.

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07-26-2013, 11:40 AM
  #220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Monctonscout View Post
Based on his production the last 2 years(fringe 1st linem high end 2nd line) DD is a bargain at 3.5 mil cap hit. Most of his comparables are making 4.5-6 mil/year. There are not an army of players that have put up more than 88 points the last 2 seasons.
Since when is 40~ points a high end 2nd line player? Maybe high end 3rd player, if DD was actually good in his own end and could win a board battle. Guy is brutal.

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07-26-2013, 11:41 AM
  #221
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Here's a great DD stat

10 GP 0-2-2

2 points in 10 play-off games

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07-26-2013, 11:45 AM
  #222
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To be clear about Desharnais, he is the kind of guy who just cannot afford to have too many seasons like the one he had last year... He has to understand he's always going to be under the radar. He's French, AND small. He's always have to prove his doubters wrong.

Last season, he looked like a guy who thought he had nothing left to prove. I'll let him the benefit of the doubt for this season, but if he keeps this trend up, he'll be harder to defend/protect.

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07-26-2013, 11:46 AM
  #223
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Here's a great DD stat

10 GP 0-2-2

2 points in 10 play-off games
He'll never be effective PO performer given his soft and predictable game.

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07-26-2013, 11:47 AM
  #224
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He'll never be effective PO performer given his soft and predictable game.
When the majority of the play is in traffic or on the boards, DD won't succeed. Which is why his contract is virtually not movable.

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07-26-2013, 12:09 PM
  #225
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James Mirtle ‏@mirtle 20s So @DarrenDreger notes Franson's asking price is likely too high for Leafs, given ugly cap situation. Bad news given his play in postseason.

Leafs are a weird team...they spend crazy money on Clarkson, who's a solid but not great player, pay a back up goalie but go cheap on defense where their biggest need is.

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