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Bill Meltzer appreciation thread -- Buzz Worth Reading

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Old
07-21-2013, 11:14 AM
  #76
CS
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This is the first time in a while that I'm going to disagree with Meltzer. That disagreement comes with an asterisk though.

I think if we went to the bargaining table with Read right now, we might be able to get him around 3.5 on a long-term extension. I'm talking about a commitment of 5+ years.

Even that's a maybe though. Read is worth 4.5 on the market easy. We've seen this, and if he doesn't regress next season, he will command that. This is a kid who has been, for all intents and purposes, a 50 point player playing under an ELC contract into his prime. He's going to want to get a money contract because this upcoming contract is his only money contract.

That said...I also expected Couturier to get 2.00-2.50 and Schenn to get 2.75-3.25 and Giroux to get 7.00-8.00. So I guess we'll see where this goes. Our projected lineup next year is looking more like this:

Hartnell (4.75) - Giroux (8.28) - Voracek (4.25)
Schenn (X.XX) - Lecavalier (4.50) - Simmonds (3.98)
xxxxxxxxxx - Couturier (1.75) - Read (X.XX)
Rinaldo (0.75) - Laughton (0.93) - Talbot (1.75)
Rosehill (0.68)

Timonen (X.XX) - Schenn (3.60)
Streit (5.25) - Coburn (4.50)
Gustafsson (X.XX) - Grossmann (3.50)
xxxxxxxxxx

Mason (X.XX)
Emery (X.XX)

Honestly, I'm wondering if a one-year deal to Timonen is more important than Read's extension should he decide to continue playing. We definitely can't do both.

We have 48.47m locked into the above roster without considering any re-signings. Most important is to have our goalies locked up. Let's say that best case scenario happens and Mason plays great but not Vezina level. Maybe we lock him up at 3.00m and get Emery to stay for 2.00m. However this plays out, we're looking at something like 5.00m to goaltending.

So, now, after goaltending, our 48.47m is looking more like 53.47m. Next priority is obviously Schenn and Gustafsson.

Since I assume we're in discussions with Schenn about a bridge contract now, perhaps he goes at 2.50m instead of the 3.00m I was thinking. Let's put Gustafsson at 2.50m on a multi-year deal which is low since I think he might get 3.00m and above if he performs well. So another 5.00m as a low-end ballpark estimate on Schenn and Gustafsson.

That puts us at 58.47m; that puts us 5.83m away from the 64.30m cap from this year. Granted we will see the cap raise, but unless you're looking at the cap raising roughly 5.00m, we're not going to be able to fit Timonen and Read even in a best-case scenario let alone considering that I low-end ballparked every estimate so far in this response.

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Old
07-21-2013, 11:41 AM
  #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CS View Post
This is the first time in a while that I'm going to disagree with Meltzer. That disagreement comes with an asterisk though.

I think if we went to the bargaining table with Read right now, we might be able to get him around 3.5 on a long-term extension. I'm talking about a commitment of 5+ years.

Even that's a maybe though. Read is worth 4.5 on the market easy. We've seen this, and if he doesn't regress next season, he will command that. This is a kid who has been, for all intents and purposes, a 50 point player playing under an ELC contract into his prime. He's going to want to get a money contract because this upcoming contract is his only money contract.

That said...I also expected Couturier to get 2.00-2.50 and Schenn to get 2.75-3.25 and Giroux to get 7.00-8.00. So I guess we'll see where this goes. Our projected lineup next year is looking more like this:

Hartnell (4.75) - Giroux (8.28) - Voracek (4.25)
Schenn (X.XX) - Lecavalier (4.50) - Simmonds (3.98)
xxxxxxxxxx - Couturier (1.75) - Read (X.XX)
Rinaldo (0.75) - Laughton (0.93) - Talbot (1.75)
Rosehill (0.68)

Timonen (X.XX) - Schenn (3.60)
Streit (5.25) - Coburn (4.50)
Gustafsson (X.XX) - Grossmann (3.50)
xxxxxxxxxx

Mason (X.XX)
Emery (X.XX)

Honestly, I'm wondering if a one-year deal to Timonen is more important than Read's extension should he decide to continue playing. We definitely can't do both.

We have 48.47m locked into the above roster without considering any re-signings. Most important is to have our goalies locked up. Let's say that best case scenario happens and Mason plays great but not Vezina level. Maybe we lock him up at 3.00m and get Emery to stay for 2.00m. However this plays out, we're looking at something like 5.00m to goaltending.

So, now, after goaltending, our 48.47m is looking more like 53.47m. Next priority is obviously Schenn and Gustafsson.

Since I assume we're in discussions with Schenn about a bridge contract now, perhaps he goes at 2.50m instead of the 3.00m I was thinking. Let's put Gustafsson at 2.50m on a multi-year deal which is low since I think he might get 3.00m and above if he performs well. So another 5.00m as a low-end ballpark estimate on Schenn and Gustafsson.

That puts us at 58.47m; that puts us 5.83m away from the 64.30m cap from this year. Granted we will see the cap raise, but unless you're looking at the cap raising roughly 5.00m, we're not going to be able to fit Timonen and Read even in a best-case scenario let alone considering that I low-end ballparked every estimate so far in this response.
As much as it would pain me to have to make that Read / Timonen decision I'd probably have to go with Read.

If there was a chance to get Kimmo back for a year and Gustafsson pans out this year into a solid top 4 guy, I'd be willing to probably move Grossmann to free up additional cap for Kimmo. That presumes Kimmo still has what it takes and Coburn puts in a good solid season this year but a top 5 D of Kimmo, L. Schenn, Streit, Coburn and Gustafsson is pretty good. It also means that one of the other prospects should be able to slot in 2 seasons from now.

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Old
07-21-2013, 12:18 PM
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeFlyer View Post
As much as it would pain me to have to make that Read / Timonen decision I'd probably have to go with Read.

If there was a chance to get Kimmo back for a year and Gustafsson pans out this year into a solid top 4 guy, I'd be willing to probably move Grossmann to free up additional cap for Kimmo. That presumes Kimmo still has what it takes and Coburn puts in a good solid season this year but a top 5 D of Kimmo, L. Schenn, Streit, Coburn and Gustafsson is pretty good. It also means that one of the other prospects should be able to slot in 2 seasons from now.
Actually, that's not a terrible idea; moving Grossmann to re-sign Timonen short-term.

The idea of keeping Timonen is that Hagg and Gostisbehere are projected to be 2-3 years out from impact.

I'm still not sure if I want Read over 4.00m though. The 3.00m figure projected by Meltzer is a steal for him compared to what the market would throw at him.

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Old
07-28-2013, 12:01 AM
  #79
FreshPerspective
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Really revealing blog post by Bill......this explains players like Klotz! Also explains how Clarke in his second stint went and got players like Hatcher and Rathje when the league was clearly moving away from size and clutching and grabbing...


Quote:
Somewhere along the way, Hammarström and the Flyers organization began to have disagreements over both the prioritization of certain types of players and the methods of developing European players. In a December 2006 interview with the IIHF Ice Times, Hammarström said that he was no fan of what he perceived as an overemphasis on size and a leaguewide tendency in the NHL to try to rush talent over to North American leagues rather than having them primarily develop at home.

Hammarström's view: If players are NHL-caliber, let them prove it first at home where there is more continuity to their development and a have a support system in place. The better players can then come over when they are truly NHL ready.

Said Hammarström to the Ice Times, "I have had disputes with offices from the club I work for and also with other scouts over this issue."

Hammarström claimed that the approach taken by players such as Washington's Nicklas Bäckström, Forsberg and Renberg to wait an extra season or two to come over to the NHL ultimately resulted in them being better NHL players. NHL teams, he said, had become too impatient to wait for their young European prospects to become both physically and mentally ready for the challenges of the NHL.

Hammarström also commented on his relief over the more recent move away from what he saw as an over-emphasis on scouting for size, saying "you could barely watch the games" in the late '90s to early 2000s.

"I don't dare to speculate how many talents we lost during those years," he said.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-...6#.UfSU0eCTN8s

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Old
07-28-2013, 12:12 AM
  #80
LegionOfDoom91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OccupySouthBroadSt View Post
Really revealing blog post by Bill......this explains players like Klotz! Also explains how Clarke in his second stint went and got players like Hatcher and Rathje when the league was clearly moving away from size and clutching and grabbing...
The Flyers definitely put an emphasis on size but that's a league wide "problem".

I think at times teams get a little too carried away with size. I don't want a player who's 5'6" 150lbs. but if the guy is talented & plays bigger than his height/weight suggest than I'm fine with taking that guy over a mammoth with the lesser skill set.

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