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Old
07-29-2013, 05:29 PM
  #101
Big Daddy Cane
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Originally Posted by MisterUnspoken View Post
Tlusty is at 13.8% now and he isn't really going to deviate from that very much considering he averages about 70 shots a year.

If you take his 79 GP season he had 136 shots and shot 12.5%. If you assume he's going to keep that up.... he'll average 17 goals a year (which is borderline 2/3 liner depending on team). If you take his career shot totals - he averages 9 goals a season.

It's more likely he's a 12-13 goals a year player.

If he somehow manages to defy all realistic expectations then good for him and good for Canes fans. Some of us are just a little bit skeptical of his recent surge in ability.

It's fair to question him just like its fair for you to question Marc's ability to come back from an eye injury.

Bottom line Rangers fans don't want a 'fluke' player and the Canes don't want to trade him for a guy with 'one good eye'. I think we all can agree with that. If Marc decides he wants to play with his brothers then so be it - doesn't really bother me at all.
Nope. This analysis completely ignores the effect that Top 6 minutes, more offensive zone starts and PP time has had on Tlusty’s shot totals. There’s going to be a noticeable difference in shots for in a 3rd line shutdown role next to Brandon Sutter w/o PP time and Top 6 minutes next to Eric Staal with PP time. I can’t pinpoint the exact date he was permanently promoted to that role, but over the past 82 games, Tlusty has registered 177 shots (and 31 goals). Using his career shooting percentage, that amounts to ~24 goals over a 177 shot, 82 game season. Since being given an opportunity in the Top 6, Jiri has generally produced like a Top 6 forward.

2011-2012 Game Log --> http://www.hockey-reference.com/play.../gamelog/2012/
2012-2013 Game Log --> http://www.hockey-reference.com/play.../gamelog/2013/


Last edited by Big Daddy Cane: 07-29-2013 at 05:35 PM.
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Old
07-29-2013, 07:33 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Big Daddy Cane View Post
Nope. This analysis completely ignores the effect that Top 6 minutes, more offensive zone starts and PP time has had on Tlustyís shot totals. Thereís going to be a noticeable difference in shots for in a 3rd line shutdown role next to Brandon Sutter w/o PP time and Top 6 minutes next to Eric Staal with PP time. I canít pinpoint the exact date he was permanently promoted to that role, but over the past 82 games, Tlusty has registered 177 shots (and 31 goals). Using his career shooting percentage, that amounts to ~24 goals over a 177 shot, 82 game season. Since being given an opportunity in the Top 6, Jiri has generally produced like a Top 6 forward.

2011-2012 Game Log --> http://www.hockey-reference.com/play.../gamelog/2012/
2012-2013 Game Log --> http://www.hockey-reference.com/play.../gamelog/2013/
So we should believe that Tlusty is the real deal because of an extrapolation of his numbers from about 60 or so games over the course of 2 seasons?

Ridiculous.

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07-29-2013, 07:40 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Carolinas Identity View Post
I think you must be reading your stats wrong. How could a team chock full of first ballot HOF'ers like the Rangers are, not have a single person outscore Tlusty? I think what you mean is that everyone on their team outscored Jiri.

I mean, they're so deep that they had Brad Richards on the 4th line in the playoffs and had him as a healthy scratch a few times as well.
I wouldn't start a pissing contest if I were you. The canes don't have a great resume to work with.

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07-29-2013, 08:27 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
So we should believe that Tlusty is the real deal because of an extrapolation of his numbers from about 60 or so games over the course of 2 seasons?

Ridiculous.
Did you bother to read the post I was responding to? How is Tlustyís production as a 19-21 year old slowly adapting to the NHL level or as a 3rd line shutdown winger any more relevant to his label than his production in the role heís going to play this coming season and probably many to come as a Top 6 winger?

I donít understand the indignation from many Ranger fans at Carolina fans calling Tlusty a Top 6 winger. Jiri has scored 31 goals in his last 82 games and I would be really surprised if he doesnít get at least 20+ with his role and the linemates he gets to play with (barring significant injury). I donít think weíre arguing, at least Iím not, thatís heís good enough of a centerpiece to get M. Staal. Itís strange.

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07-29-2013, 08:27 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
I wouldn't start a pissing contest if I were you. The canes don't have a great resume to work with.
right. however, with the addition of an investor group and what looks like a new vision, the team has turned that ship around. the acquisition of semin was a start and at one point last season they were i believe, 5 points out of the eastern conference lead prior to severe injuries derailing them. that was with what they had which was certainly lacking in all areas and probably wouldn't have continued regardless.

however, they have improved and should continue to do so. the hurricanes will be a very different team going forward. may take another year or two to be cup contenders but they should make the playoffs until then imo.

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07-29-2013, 08:31 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by vipernsx View Post


I'm not Tlusty Bashing, he's a solid player, he's just not nearly as good as James Neal, Rick Nash, Phil Kessel, Thomas Vanek, Eric Staal, Zach Parise, or any number of other players who he scored more goals than during a lockout shortened season. When he puts up those kinds of stats in a full 82 game season, I'll be a believer. Until then, I'm not buying it.
No one on the 'Canes side think that Tlusty is in that class of player, save for me (I'm a Jiri Tlusty homer).

Most do think he is a top 6 player on a cheap contract with excellent chemistry to our two most skilled players.

One thing to keep in mind is, until late 2011-2012, Tlusty was fed third line minutes his entire career with players like Brandon Sutter, Andreas Nodl and Patrick Dwyer (outside of a brief time where some coach thought it would be a good idea to play him on the Leafs' top line as an 18 year old). Then he was put with Staal, and has exploded in production (keep in mind that not everyone on the 'Canes can keep up with Staal. Ruutu, LaRose, Jokinen to name a few).

But you're reasoning is fair. Let's see how he does in a full season.

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07-29-2013, 08:42 PM
  #107
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i believe that tlusty can be as good as neal. they play the same type game and now jiri's in a similar situation. i wouldn't go so far with nash but i'm one of those crazy lunatics who think he's over-rated.

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07-29-2013, 08:57 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Big Daddy Cane View Post
Did you bother to read the post I was responding to? How is Tlustyís production as a 19-21 year old slowly adapting to the NHL level or as a 3rd line shutdown winger any more relevant to his label than his production in the role heís going to play this coming season and probably many to come as a Top 6 winger?
The point I'm making is that one short period of time spread out over two seasons isn't going to make him a legitimate top-6 forward, no matter how much you argue it. He's still not proven. Like Derek Stepan right now. I'm not ready to crown him as a legitimate #1 center like most Ranger fans have already done so. I still think he's a VERY good second line center and his play improves with every passing shift he plays.

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I donít understand the indignation from many Ranger fans at Carolina fans calling Tlusty a Top 6 winger. Jiri has scored 31 goals in his last 82 games and I would be really surprised if he doesnít get at least 20+ with his role and the linemates he gets to play with (barring significant injury). I donít think weíre arguing, at least Iím not,
thatís heís good enough of a centerpiece to get M. Staal. Itís strange.
I'm done with Tlusty for Staal and have been done with it for a while. I basically said from the start that if that's the offer, then go scratch. However, I

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Originally Posted by rocky7 View Post
right. however, with the addition of an investor group and what looks like a new vision, the team has turned that ship around. the acquisition of semin was a start and at one point last season they were i believe, 5 points out of the eastern conference lead prior to severe injuries derailing them. that was with what they had which was certainly lacking in all areas and probably wouldn't have continued regardless.

however, they have improved and should continue to do so. the hurricanes will be a very different team going forward. may take another year or two to be cup contenders but they should make the playoffs until then imo.
Ok, that's great, but a Canes fan is still taking shots at the Rangers, one of 3 teams that have missed the playoffs only once or less post 05-06 lockout. I don't think there's much credence to shots like that being taken.

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07-29-2013, 09:03 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Kwayry View Post
The real world.
Tlusty is a 7 year veteran, so we have a lot of data about him.
We saw his shooting % jump 80% in one season, from 12% to 20% last season, can you spell puck luck?
Based on his history, last season was a fluke, he needs to confirm with another strong season, before he can be labelled anything but a 3rd liner.
And i don't want Staal traded period.
A guy had a break out season as a 24-25 year old? That's never happened before......


He's not going to shoot 20% again, obviously. He's not going to score 40 goals either. But if he shoots 12% or so, he's scoring 25-30 goals, which is a ton better than a 3rd liner.

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07-29-2013, 09:18 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
A guy had a break out season as a 24-25 year old? That's never happened before......


He's not going to shoot 20% again, obviously. He's not going to score 40 goals either. But if he shoots 12% or so, he's scoring 25-30 goals, which is a ton better than a 3rd liner.
You can't call it a breakout season until you know the production was after it. I can call it a flash in the pants until he can confirm. And you can't reasonably argue against that.
Canes fans want to focus on the 31 goals he scored in the last 82 games, but not the 26 he scored in the previous 195 games.

Goal production per year.
07-08: 10 goals in 58 games.
08-09: 4 goals in 14 games
09-10: 1 goal in 20 games
10-11: 6 goals in 56 games
11-12: 17 goals in 79 games
12-13: 23 goals in 48 games.

Let's assume for a minute that he was a 19 year old rookie in his first year and dismiss that.
How do you explain his 2nd year, 3rd year, 4th year?
Is he a late bloomer? Possibly. Did you catch lightening in a bottle? Great, but let's wait to get a confirmation with another strong season. I am surprised that Canes fans can't accept that.

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07-29-2013, 10:25 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by Kwayry View Post
You can't call it a breakout season until you know the production was after it. I can call it a flash in the pants until he can confirm. And you can't reasonably argue against that.
Canes fans want to focus on the 31 goals he scored in the last 82 games, but not the 26 he scored in the previous 195 games.

Goal production per year.
07-08: 10 goals in 58 games.
08-09: 4 goals in 14 games
09-10: 1 goal in 20 games
10-11: 6 goals in 56 games
11-12: 17 goals in 79 games
12-13: 23 goals in 48 games.

Let's assume for a minute that he was a 19 year old rookie in his first year and dismiss that.
How do you explain his 2nd year, 3rd year, 4th year?
Is he a late bloomer? Possibly. Did you catch lightening in a bottle? Great, but let's wait to get a confirmation with another strong season. I am surprised that Canes fans can't accept that.
First of all, you can't call it a flash in the pants because that's not an actual phrase. Secondly, those earlier stats you're referencing are him playing a bottom 6 role as an undeveloped player. Third, Canes fans can't call it a breakout until you confirm that he follows it up, but you can call it a "flash in the pants" without confirming that he falls on his face? Sounds fair.

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07-29-2013, 10:30 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
First of all, you can't call it a flash in the pants because that's not an actual phrase. Secondly, those earlier stats you're referencing are him playing a bottom 6 role as an undeveloped player. Third, Canes fans can't call it a breakout until you confirm that he follows it up, but you can call it a "flash in the pants" without confirming that he falls on his face? Sounds fair.
It's a sentence.

Quote:
flash in the pants
a momentary burst of sexual arousal (a pun on flash in the pan)
But you got the jest of it.

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07-29-2013, 10:53 PM
  #113
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At 25, Martin St. Louis had just scored 18 points in 55 NHL games and played some games in the minors. He was 27 when he first hit 20 goals.

Johan Franzen was 28 when he first hit 20 goals (though he didn't join the NHL until he was 25).

Pavel Datsyuk was 25 when he first had a 20 goal season.

Brian Rolston was 25 when he first had a 20 goal season.

PA Parenteau famously was 28 when he first hit 20 goals.

The NYR's own Derick Brassard still hasn't topped 20 goals or gotten to 50 points yet, but does not his recent success with the Rangers increase his trade value by a lot?

Fact is, we don't know Tlusty's performance next year. But the best indication is what he has done recently, due to him developing as a player and do to his future role on the team (as a first line player) matching with where he played a full season last year only. Canes fans aren't saying Tlusty will score 40 goals. We FULLY EXPECT for him to not continue an unsustainably high shooting percentage. However, he looks to be at least a 20 G scorer, with 30 G potential. Tons of great players take until their mid-to-late 20s to develop. I don't know why Tlusty can't possibly be one of these very many players.

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07-29-2013, 11:15 PM
  #114
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The thing is, I don't really like any of the pieces being thrown around by Canes fans. Tlusty? Fluke season. Skinner? Can't keep his head up. I've been pushing for Faulk as the centerpiece in a Staal deal. What about Faulk + Ruutu @ 2/3 salary for Staal?

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07-29-2013, 11:36 PM
  #115
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The NYR's own Derick Brassard still hasn't topped 20 goals or gotten to 50 points yet, but does not his recent success with the Rangers increase his trade value by a lot?

Fact is, we don't know Tlusty's performance next year. But the best indication is what he has done recently, due to him developing as a player and do to his future role on the team (as a first line player) matching with where he played a full season last year only. Canes fans aren't saying Tlusty will score 40 goals. We FULLY EXPECT for him to not continue an unsustainably high shooting percentage. However, he looks to be at least a 20 G scorer, with 30 G potential. Tons of great players take until their mid-to-late 20s to develop. I don't know why Tlusty can't possibly be one of these very many players.
Derick Brassard has proven himself as a top-6, 40 point player in COLUMBUS of all places, with AND without Rick Nash.

COMPLETELY DIFFERENT scenario from Tlusty.

Poor comparison to use.

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07-30-2013, 12:18 AM
  #116
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Originally Posted by CM Lundqvist View Post
The point I'm making is that one short period of time spread out over two seasons isn't going to make him a legitimate top-6 forward, no matter how much you argue it. He's still not proven. Like Derek Stepan right now. I'm not ready to crown him as a legitimate #1 center like most Ranger fans have already done so. I still think he's a VERY good second line center and his play improves with every passing shift he plays.
Fair enough. The funny thing is that I was never trying to argue that Tlusty was somehow proven. I was simply refuting a poor quantitative argument of why this stretch in his career was an aberation. In my opinion, it is simply a step ahead in his development as an NHL player. While Tlusty isnít a proven Top 6 forward as of yet, I donít think some labeling him as a 3rd liner is fair considering what heís done over the past 82 games and what I think he'll do moving forward. I guess that makes him an unproven Top 6 winger then. Likewise, I guess that makes Stepan an unproven 1C. I guess we just have a disagreement about semantics more than anything.

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The thing is, I don't really like any of the pieces being thrown around by Canes fans. Tlusty? Fluke season. Skinner? Can't keep his head up. I've been pushing for Faulk as the centerpiece in a Staal deal. What about Faulk + Ruutu @ 2/3 salary for Staal?
No interest whatsoever in Faulk for M. Staal straight-up, let alone Faulk+.

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07-30-2013, 12:44 AM
  #117
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Fair enough. The funny thing is that I was never trying to argue that Tlusty was somehow proven. I was simply refuting a poor quantitative argument of why this stretch in his career was an aberation. In my opinion, it is simply a step ahead in his development as an NHL player. While Tlusty isnít a proven Top 6 forward as of yet, I donít think some labeling him as a 3rd liner is fair considering what heís done over the past 82 games and what I think he'll do moving forward. I guess that makes him an unproven Top 6 winger then. Likewise, I guess that makes Stepan an unproven 1C. I guess we just have a disagreement about semantics more than anything.
Eh I don't think it's fair to label him as a 2nd or a 3rd liner at this point. I think he's right in between on the cusp. Does he have the talent to be a top-6 forward? I don't think there's really any arguing that. However, I think the shooting percentage numbers are unsustainable for someone of his skill level and I don't see that repeating. It was like Petr Prucha in his rookie year. There were like 3 people in league that had a higher shooting percentage that year and one of them was Alex Tanguay. It was stupid. I also greatly dislike advanced statistics as separately, they come down to some intricate scenarios that don't always address the big issue that the eye test truly does.

Sabremetrics don't work in baseball. If they did, Billy Beane's A's would be a dynasty.

Sorry to go off on a tangent there, but I don't really think it's a matter of semantics as much as it's a matter of me wanting a full sample size and not 82 games over multiple seasons in Tlusty's case. Brassard had scored 25 points in 31 games with Columbus once. Hasn't take any strides to build on that until he came to NY and was a near point per game player down the stretch and was our top scorer in the playoffs. Stepan had a FANTASTIC season and he's arguably my favorite current Ranger, but I'd honestly still feel more comfortable going after the cup if either.... A. Brad Richards lived up to his contract and was giving us point per game or better hockey or B. Someone like Ryan Getzlaf was brought in. Then again, Clownarella is gone and hopefully AV can bring out the best in Stepan and bring Richards back to life in the same notion.

Quote:
No interest whatsoever in Faulk for M. Staal straight-up, let alone Faulk+.
I can understand that completely, but at the same time, I would hope that you would understand why we would want Faulk for him. We can't afford to be dealing an all-star defenseman for less than what he's actually worth, regardless of injury status. He's worth more to us in the lineup now than on the market and he serves a greater purpose there as well. When he's in the lineup and healthy, you see the tremendous impact he has on this team.

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07-30-2013, 08:22 AM
  #118
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So he's had solid parts of 2 seasons. Mostly because of good chemistry with one of the leagues elite players, not because he's an elite player himself. Were there not injuries in Carolina's lineup, would Tlusty have even gotten the shot at a top6 role?

In 80 career NHL games, Mats Zuccarello has put up 41pts though I'm not going to claim he's a .5pp/g player.


Semin and Staal are among two of the most talented players in the league. Put any well rounded player with them and they're going to put up some points.

Tlusty isn't a bad player, he's just not the top6, better than .5pp/g that some perceive from his aggregate statistics. He's a well rounded 3rd liner who can play top6 minutes when needed. A well rounded 3rd liner, isn't what the Rangers need and baring some terrible news about his facial injury, they're not worth Marc Staal one of the elite defensive defenseman in the league.

Start talking Faulk and a lottery pick and the discussion about Staal can move forward, just like Jordan. Until then, I think it's a dead issue.
i wouldn't trade Faulk straight up for staal let and you want a draft pick on top of it?? staal is damaged goods...... everyone knows Carolina overpaid for Jordan.... they shoulda just waited till he became a free agent. they will with marc....


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