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Rangers sign Benoit Pouliot (1 year, $1.3M)

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07-28-2013, 08:17 AM
  #251
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Just remember: Anton Stralman was dropped by two teams and he worked out OK for the Rangers

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07-28-2013, 09:07 AM
  #252
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What do you mean by 'bench player'?
I guess Gretzky was a bench player since thats where he sat in between record setting shifts....

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07-28-2013, 04:07 PM
  #254
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Originally Posted by Blue Blooded View Post
It is probably just me that you are referring to.

I'm NOT trying to sell Pouliot as some kind of saviour that will score 65+ points, but I'm merely bringing to light that he has been a potent ES scorer and that he is looking like a valuable addition that may even adequately plug the top-6 LW hole we currently have. And if not, can at least provide consistent bottom-6 scoring.

Teams giving up on him is a definite red flag, I've mentioned this in almost every post I've written in this thread. And I guess we'll find out soon enough why teams have been giving up on him. But my theory is that his QO's have been deemed too expensive for the role he has been filling on those teams. Questionable defensive effort is another possibility, but he has been a very good +/- player in addition to his good possession numbers.
Don't worry, it wasn't only you

My point is that statistics don't tell the whole story--there's something else going on here, which is why Pouliot was available at such a low price to begin with. Based on his history, he'll produce 25-30 points and probably drive us crazy in the process. Do I hope he does more than that? Of course, but I'm not holding my breath.

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07-28-2013, 04:21 PM
  #255
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Originally Posted by bmoak View Post
Just remember: Anton Stralman was dropped by two teams and he worked out OK for the Rangers
Stralman was not qualfied once in his career, that's happened to Pouliot on the last three teams he's played on. And Pouliot was drafted fourth overall--Stralman was picked in the 7th round. One was supposed to be a can't miss prospect, the other an unknown Swedish player who may or may not make it as a regular in the NHL.

And one scrary statistic: Strålman has scored more points in a single season than Pouliot has and has played more games at the NHL level than Pouliot.

Again, I'm not ruling out Pouliot finally putting all together, but chances are, what you see is what you get.

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07-29-2013, 08:15 AM
  #256
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Originally Posted by Brooklyn Ranger View Post
Stralman was not qualfied once in his career, that's happened to Pouliot on the last three teams he's played on. And Pouliot was drafted fourth overall--Stralman was picked in the 7th round. One was supposed to be a can't miss prospect, the other an unknown Swedish player who may or may not make it as a regular in the NHL.

And one scrary statistic: Strålman has scored more points in a single season than Pouliot has and has played more games at the NHL level than Pouliot.

Again, I'm not ruling out Pouliot finally putting all together, but chances are, what you see is what you get.
I'm not arguing that Pouliot "will finally put it together", I'm arguing that if he can bring what he has performed over the past 3 seasons it is worth a lot more than $1.3M.

I don't take it as gospel, but if we look at Pouliot's GVT over the past few seasons his numbers are quite solid.

In 2011-12 he put up 0.1068 GVT/G. Close comparables were Brad Richards, Mike Richards, Ryane Clowe, David Clarkson, Wayne Simmonds, Andrew Ladd, Artem Anisimov, Ryan Kesler, Sean Couturier.

In 2012-13 he put up 0.1971 GVT/G. Close comparables were Jarome Iginla, Jaromir Jagr, Jason Pominville, Vinny Prospal, Brent Burns, Evander Kane, Artem Anisimov, Kyle Turris, Wayne Simmonds, Mike Richards, Brad Richards, Joe Pavelski, David Backes, Cory Conacher, Vincent Lecavalier, Carl Hagelin.

I still need to see him play consistently before I deem him a valuable player, but all of his underlying numbers suggest that he has been a quite efficient player that whose contributions have been looked past. IMO likely due to these two reasons:

1. Inefficient on the PP.

Pouliot has never been a good PP player. Even in his better years he only managed 3-3.5 P/60 on the PP. That made him the 9th most efficient forward on the 2009-10 Habs and the 5th most efficent forward on the 2012-13 Bolts. Quite bad.

Unless you are Crosby, PP scoring is what usually brings a player from 60-70pt scorer to 90pt scorer. Justin Williams (2.22 P/60 2010-2013) outscores Kovalchuk (1.57 P/60 2010-2013) easily at ES, but Kovy kills it on the PP. Scorers that do most of their damage at ES are IMO usually quite underrated. 90 points looks more impressive than 80, but I'd argue that a player that puts up 55ESP+25PPP has been more beneficial to his team than a player that put up 40ESP+50PPP. Powerplay prowess can translate into goals, but it doesn't affect control of the game. Bergeron and Krejci are among the top ES scorers in the league, but they struggle on the PP. Maybe it isn't a surprise that they score a lot in the playoffs where PP's are fewer and farther between? The same goes for Jonathan Toews.

I'm not comparing Pouliot to these stars, but I'm using them as an example of how PP points can distort the view of a player.

2. Label: "Top-5 pick that busted"

Pouliot was labelled a bust years ago, and he is still seen as one. That means that most people's view of him is biased negatively and his play is more sceptically analyzed.


Last edited by Blue Blooded: 07-29-2013 at 08:35 AM.
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07-29-2013, 08:35 AM
  #257
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My perception is he has been receiving around 11 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time per game for the last three seasons on three different teams.

Using his 5 on 5 pts per 60, say even at 2pts per 60, that would still take nearly 6 games at 11 minutes per game to get those 2 points.

11 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time is not a whole lot. Boyle, Fedotenko, Prust are some recent Rangers who received about the same.

I believe this is a relatively low risk reclamation signing made by Sather (who likes to make them) and Risebrough (the GM who drafted him) If it works out and he can put it together, great. I do not deny he has the talent to do so. However this is also a player who has some skeletons in his closet.

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07-29-2013, 08:57 AM
  #258
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This is not a reclamation signing. At all.

What I mean by that is that he hasn't been brought in with the hope or expectation that he will fulfill his potential. He's been brought in to provide 30-40 points from the 3rd line. That's it. If somehow, he provides more, great. If not, and he does what he should, that's great too.


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07-29-2013, 03:40 PM
  #259
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Originally Posted by Blue Blooded View Post
I'm not arguing that Pouliot "will finally put it together", I'm arguing that if he can bring what he has performed over the past 3 seasons it is worth a lot more than $1.3M.

I don't take it as gospel, but if we look at Pouliot's GVT over the past few seasons his numbers are quite solid.

In 2011-12 he put up 0.1068 GVT/G. Close comparables were Brad Richards, Mike Richards, Ryane Clowe, David Clarkson, Wayne Simmonds, Andrew Ladd, Artem Anisimov, Ryan Kesler, Sean Couturier.

In 2012-13 he put up 0.1971 GVT/G. Close comparables were Jarome Iginla, Jaromir Jagr, Jason Pominville, Vinny Prospal, Brent Burns, Evander Kane, Artem Anisimov, Kyle Turris, Wayne Simmonds, Mike Richards, Brad Richards, Joe Pavelski, David Backes, Cory Conacher, Vincent Lecavalier, Carl Hagelin.

I still need to see him play consistently before I deem him a valuable player, but all of his underlying numbers suggest that he has been a quite efficient player that whose contributions have been looked past. IMO likely due to these two reasons:

1. Inefficient on the PP.

Pouliot has never been a good PP player. Even in his better years he only managed 3-3.5 P/60 on the PP. That made him the 9th most efficient forward on the 2009-10 Habs and the 5th most efficent forward on the 2012-13 Bolts. Quite bad.

Unless you are Crosby, PP scoring is what usually brings a player from 60-70pt scorer to 90pt scorer. Justin Williams (2.22 P/60 2010-2013) outscores Kovalchuk (1.57 P/60 2010-2013) easily at ES, but Kovy kills it on the PP. Scorers that do most of their damage at ES are IMO usually quite underrated. 90 points looks more impressive than 80, but I'd argue that a player that puts up 55ESP+25PPP has been more beneficial to his team than a player that put up 40ESP+50PPP. Powerplay prowess can translate into goals, but it doesn't affect control of the game. Bergeron and Krejci are among the top ES scorers in the league, but they struggle on the PP. Maybe it isn't a surprise that they score a lot in the playoffs where PP's are fewer and farther between? The same goes for Jonathan Toews.

I'm not comparing Pouliot to these stars, but I'm using them as an example of how PP points can distort the view of a player.

2. Label: "Top-5 pick that busted"

Pouliot was labelled a bust years ago, and he is still seen as one. That means that most people's view of him is biased negatively and his play is more sceptically analyzed.
Sorry, I'm not interested in advanced statistics--what matters is what happens on the ice and Pouliot is a player who's scored at best 32 points in a season (or 36 if you count the year he spent in Houston in 2006-7 as a first year professional). It's possible that he will break out (finally) and become something more, but until then he's a journeymen NHLer who has never played two full seasons with one NHL team and never scored 15 goals in his NHL career. If he adds a little jump and can score some on the third line, I'll be thrilled. But I fully expect periods where he will wandering around out there without a clue too.

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07-29-2013, 03:57 PM
  #260
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Sorry, I'm not interested in advanced statistics--what matters is what happens on the ice and Pouliot is a player who's scored at best 32 points in a season (or 36 if you count the year he spent in Houston in 2006-7 as a first year professional). It's possible that he will break out (finally) and become something more, but until then he's a journeymen NHLer who has never played two full seasons with one NHL team and never scored 15 goals in his NHL career. If he adds a little jump and can score some on the third line, I'll be thrilled. But I fully expect periods where he will wandering around out there without a clue too.
"What happens on the ice" is more than just scoring points -- and advanced statistics can lend relevance to that.

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07-29-2013, 04:24 PM
  #261
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"What happens on the ice" is more than just scoring points -- and advanced statistics can lend relevance to that.
The operative word there is "can". I also see relevance in the fact that Pouliot can't find a way to stick with one team and get a second contract from them.

I'm sure we can find statistics to spin it anyway you want--that's the joy of statistics--but, there are significant flaws in Pouliot's game: that's why the Rangers were able to sign him for $1.3 million. And until he proves something more to me on the ice, I'm not drinking the kool-aid.

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07-29-2013, 04:27 PM
  #262
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Sorry, I'm not interested in advanced statistics--what matters is what happens on the ice
Advanced statistics measure what happen on the ice.

Please explain to me how points are meaningful, but points per TOI isn't.

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07-29-2013, 04:28 PM
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The operative word there is "can". I also see relevance in the fact that Pouliot can't find a way to stick with one team and get a second contract from them.

I'm sure we can find statistics to spin it anyway you want--that's the joy of statistics--but, there are significant flaws in Pouliot's game: that's why the Rangers were able to sign him for $1.3 million. And until he proves something more to me on the ice, I'm not drinking the kool-aid.
watched him a lot the past 2 years. he has a ton of skill and is a really good forechecking presence (he has a pretty good stick and forced more turnovers than i expected to see). the main problem with pouliot is he has very low hockey IQ. dumb plays with puck, coverage, etc.

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07-29-2013, 04:52 PM
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Advanced statistics measure what happen on the ice.

Please explain to me how points are meaningful, but points per TOI isn't.
Advanced statistics measure a moment on the ice. Hockey is in constant motion. The former is at best a snapshot. I've seen Pouliot play, we can talk all we want about this advanced statistic and that one, but he's never going to live up to the potential that got him drafted 4th over all. He'll play his 10-12 minutes at even strength, get a little powerplay time if he's hot and will probably score 25-30 points--if he clicks with his linemates (big if). Hope that's enough.

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07-29-2013, 04:57 PM
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Advanced statistics measure a moment on the ice. Hockey is in constant motion.
I have no idea what this means.

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Originally Posted by Brooklyn Ranger View Post
but he's never going to live up to the potential that got him drafted 4th over all.
Who's expecting him to?

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Originally Posted by Brooklyn Ranger View Post
He'll play his 10-12 minutes at even strength, get a little powerplay time if he's hot and will probably score 25-30 points--if he clicks with his linemates (big if). Hope that's enough.
Sounds like a great deal for $1.3 million.

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07-29-2013, 05:33 PM
  #266
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watched him a lot the past 2 years. he has a ton of skill and is a really good forechecking presence (he has a pretty good stick and forced more turnovers than i expected to see). the main problem with pouliot is he has very low hockey IQ. dumb plays with puck, coverage, etc.
Should fit right in!

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07-30-2013, 05:36 AM
  #267
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Here's how I view this signing.

Offensively he's better Powe, Asham, Boyle, Kreider, JT Miller, Pyatt and until proven otherwise over the course of a full season, Zuccarello.

Caveat is that Kreider has a better set of tools and will get a look at the top 6.

Pouliot - Richards - Zuccarello makes for a solid 3rd line.

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07-30-2013, 06:53 AM
  #268
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Here's how I view this signing.

Offensively he's better Powe, Asham, Boyle, Kreider, JT Miller, Pyatt and until proven otherwise over the course of a full season, Zuccarello.

Caveat is that Kreider has a better set of tools and will get a look at the top 6.

Pouliot - Richards - Zuccarello makes for a solid 3rd line.
I think this is the opposite of what AV wants in his 3rd line. Bad defensively and awful @ checking.

I think the top 9 will end up looking like this (atleast at first) once healthy

Kreider Richards Nash
Hagelin Brassard Zuccarello
Pouliot Stepan Callahan

The 1st line will be expected to provide offense. AV wil try to get Richards going again.
The second line can also provide some scoring and has Hagelin to provide some defense coverage.
The 3rd line is able to check and pot some goals. All three (atleast 2) are defensively responsible.

I think that fits into AV's strategy more.

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07-30-2013, 06:55 AM
  #269
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Originally Posted by KreidertheGlider View Post
I think this is the opposite of what AV wants in his 3rd line. Bad defensively and awful @ checking.

I think the top 9 will end up looking like this (atleast at first) once healthy

Kreider Richards Nash
Hagelin Brassard Zuccarello
Pouliot Stepan Callahan

The 1st line will be expected to provide offense. AV wil try to get Richards going again.
The second line can also provide some scoring and has Hagelin to provide some defense coverage.
The 3rd line is able to check and pot some goals. All three (atleast 2) are defensively responsible.

I think that fits into AV's strategy more.
Swap Steps and Brass and I think you're on to something. Providing Richards bounces back.

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07-30-2013, 07:25 AM
  #270
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I'm not sure how AV thinks, but IMO pencilling in Kreider in the top-6 is way premature.

He is to me in a "show me" type of situation where he has to impress in camp and really earn his spot in the lineup. The tentative play he showed last year has no place in the NHL and I wouldn't be surprised if he started the year in Hartford. He has the tools, but he needs to figure out how to channel them into efficient play at the NHL level.

Miller OTOH was actively bad through overconfidence instead of Kreider's passive method of sucking. But if I had to bet on one of them making the team I'd lean towards Miller as he at least didn't look constantly terrified out there.

Kristo, Hrivik, and Fasth could also mount challenges for that last top-9 wing spot.

And if worse comes to worst, Boyle or Pyatt will have to fill in.

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07-30-2013, 07:35 AM
  #271
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Originally Posted by pld459666 View Post
Here's how I view this signing.

Offensively he's better Powe, Asham, Boyle, Kreider, JT Miller, Pyatt and until proven otherwise over the course of a full season, Zuccarello.

Caveat is that Kreider has a better set of tools and will get a look at the top 6.

Pouliot - Richards - Zuccarello makes for a solid 3rd line.
I agree with this post, but if Kreider can not handle top 6 minutes it would most likely mean Pouliot gets those minutes.

That is where I disagree with the advanced stats that say he can put up 2pts per 60. If he gets more minutes it does not necessarily mean it will translate to more points. If he were capable of that ratio as a top 6 wing his past teams would have already given him more minutes.

Regardless Kreider or Pouliot in the top 6, the Rangers are going to be asking a player to perform above anything they have done in the past. If neither works out it's back to them asking Pyatt or some other non top 6 wing who does not fit into that role to play in that role.

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07-30-2013, 07:47 AM
  #272
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I agree with this post, but if Kreider can not handle top 6 minutes it would most likely mean Pouliot gets those minutes.

That is where I disagree with the advanced stats that say he can put up 2pts per 60. If he gets more minutes it does not necessarily mean it will translate to more points. If he were capable of that ratio as a top 6 wing his past teams would have already given him more minutes.

Regardless Kreider or Pouliot in the top 6, the Rangers are going to be asking a player to perform above anything they have done in the past. If neither works out it's back to them asking Pyatt or some other non top 6 wing who does not fit into that role to play in that role.
While Pouliot bounced around the lineup a bit, his most common linemates this past season were Lecavalier and St. Louis. After them it was Tom Pyatt, Stamkos, and Purcell. Those five forwards were Tampa's best scoring forwards at ES apart from Pouliot. Hardly a limited role.

Pouliot's scoring rate went up in his more offensive role on Tampa, not down. Tampa is however a high-scoring team, so I'm not expecting Pouliot putting up 2.5 P/60 on the Rangers regardless of his role. But if we can get just 2.0 P/60 or even a bit less from Pouliot in any role that is $1.3M VERY well spent.

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07-30-2013, 07:59 AM
  #273
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Originally Posted by KreidertheGlider View Post
I think this is the opposite of what AV wants in his 3rd line. Bad defensively and awful @ checking.

I think the top 9 will end up looking like this (atleast at first) once healthy

Kreider Richards Nash
Hagelin Brassard Zuccarello
Pouliot Stepan Callahan

The 1st line will be expected to provide offense. AV wil try to get Richards going again.
The second line can also provide some scoring and has Hagelin to provide some defense coverage.
The 3rd line is able to check and pot some goals. All three (atleast 2) are defensively responsible.

I think that fits into AV's strategy more.
That's a horrible spot for Stepan. Teams best center mannign a defensive position?

That would be a huge waste of his talents. Asset Management blunder written all over it.

Granted, Richards may not be best suited for that 3rd line spot, but Stepan is this teams #1 center and putting him in the 3 hole is a mistake.

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07-30-2013, 09:30 AM
  #274
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Originally Posted by KreidertheGlider View Post
I think this is the opposite of what AV wants in his 3rd line. Bad defensively and awful @ checking.

I think the top 9 will end up looking like this (atleast at first) once healthy

Kreider Richards Nash
Hagelin Brassard Zuccarello
Pouliot Stepan Callahan

The 1st line will be expected to provide offense. AV wil try to get Richards going again.
The second line can also provide some scoring and has Hagelin to provide some defense coverage.
The 3rd line is able to check and pot some goals. All three (atleast 2) are defensively responsible.

I think that fits into AV's strategy more.
The truth is that none of those top 3 centers would be particularly good in a checking role. Im not sure why you'd put our best center down on the 3rd line with checking responsibilities. Also, that 2nd line would get knocked over in a stiff wind.

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07-30-2013, 12:12 PM
  #275
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Originally Posted by Blue Blooded View Post
While Pouliot bounced around the lineup a bit, his most common linemates this past season were Lecavalier and St. Louis. After them it was Tom Pyatt, Stamkos, and Purcell. Those five forwards were Tampa's best scoring forwards at ES apart from Pouliot. Hardly a limited role.

Pouliot's scoring rate went up in his more offensive role on Tampa, not down. Tampa is however a high-scoring team, so I'm not expecting Pouliot putting up 2.5 P/60 on the Rangers regardless of his role. But if we can get just 2.0 P/60 or even a bit less from Pouliot in any role that is $1.3M VERY well spent.
I am not disagreeing with the contract, I am disagreeing that the Rangers currently have a 2nd line LW.

I also disagree that one can extrapolate points per minute to a number than prorate that number over more total or average minutes.

If 5 on 5 Pouliot scores 30 pts from a 3rd line role at ~11 minute per might, I would be happy as well. My concern is not that he can achieve that and maybe more. My concern is that he ends up a 15-16 minute per game player in the 2nd line role and ends up with the same ~30pts. There is just little evidence that he can handle a role above where he has been playing. ~11 mins or ~830 mins total over a full season.

There is even less evidence that Kreider or any other top 6 wing is going to be able to fill that role.


That leaves me with the idea that the Rangers are reaching and either Pouliot or Kreider end up in a role they have little hope of succeeding in.

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