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Really good explaination of how Bergevin did right thing with subban.

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07-31-2013, 11:13 AM
  #1
dreamingofdrouin
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Really good explaination of how Bergevin did right thing with subban.

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/20...-a-bridge-deal

i know theres a subban thread just couldnt find it...feel free to move this to there.

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07-31-2013, 11:20 AM
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Andrew berkshire is one of the smartest habs writers there is, so at the very least this is a well written, fresh take on the matter.

That being said, the last thread devolved into mudslinging, so I'll just go ahead and issue a warning now.

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07-31-2013, 11:22 AM
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He doesn't really acknowledge that cap hit % TODAY isn't as important as cap hit % during Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Eller's primes. In three years we'll be in cal trouble and 5m vs 8m will make a big difference.

Why are people jumping through all these cognitive hoops trying to justify what ultimately is a very dumb move.

Bergevin made a lot of rookie mistakes and he has very little "free" goodwill left. For every good looking move (Cheap Subban! Got rid of cole!) he ruined the very advantage that he got almost immediately (Extend DD to an unreasonable contract! Sign Briere to the same deal as Cole!).

Quit defending the guy, we're going into the season with Bouillon and Drewiskie as our bottom pairing dmen. We're in trouble.

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07-31-2013, 11:22 AM
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Berkshire is overrated.

And he smells like elderberries.

p.s. Yes, t'is a good article. A bit optimistic on the growth of the league, but still a concise opinion nonetheless.

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07-31-2013, 11:25 AM
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It was pretty damn obvious in regards to UFA years gained, as well as leverage in the next negociations with him as an RFA. don't know how that many people overlooked those things.

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07-31-2013, 11:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
Bergevin made a lot of rookie mistakes and he has very little "free" goodwill left. For every good looking move (Cheap Subban! Got rid of cole!) he ruined the very advantage that he got almost immediately (Extend DD to an unreasonable contract! Sign Briere to the same deal as Cole!).

Quit defending the guy, we're going into the season with Bouillon and Drewiskie as our bottom pairing dmen. We're in trouble.
His team finished 2nd in the East in his first year on the job after being in the basement the year before, and was nominated for GM of the year.

To even suggest his "goodwill" is starting to run out is laughable.

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07-31-2013, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
He doesn't really acknowledge that cap hit % TODAY isn't as important as cap hit % during Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Eller's primes. In three years we'll be in cal trouble and 5m vs 8m will make a big difference.

Why are people jumping through all these cognitive hoops trying to justify what ultimately is a very dumb move.

Bergevin made a lot of rookie mistakes and he has very little "free" goodwill left. For every good looking move (Cheap Subban! Got rid of cole!) he ruined the very advantage that he got almost immediately (Extend DD to an unreasonable contract! Sign Briere to the same deal as Cole!).

Quit defending the guy, we're going into the season with Bouillon and Drewiskie as our bottom pairing dmen. We're in trouble.
There's two ways to look at it. If Bergevin thinks we have a solid D-core at the moment, yeah he's pretty dense. But if he recognizes that not every year can be a 'win now' year, and that biding his (and the organization's) time will be more profitable in the long run, then I think he's already got one up on our last 3 GM's.

What he does with this bought time is another matter.

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07-31-2013, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by HiggsBozon View Post
It was pretty damn obvious in regards to UFA years gained, as well as leverage in the next negociations with him as an RFA. don't know how that many people overlooked those things.
My thoughts exactly

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07-31-2013, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
His team finished 2nd in the East in his first year on the job after being in the basement the year before, and was nominated for GM of the year.

To even suggest his "goodwill" is starting to run out is laughable.
How true...MB will be given 3-4 season l;ike every other GM in the league to get his team in a position of competing for the playoffs and the Stanley Cup...patience guys...

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07-31-2013, 11:35 AM
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Interesting article with a practical approach that many have not considered deeply enough in regards to "percentage of cap spending", - me included.

I am angry at the OP however, because this means this thread will now become the Subban/bridge deal/Bergevin is an idiot/ repository for the next several weeks again as it re-hashes the original thread.

Cue Lafleur's Guy, KrissE, et al.....

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07-31-2013, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by prairie hab View Post
Interesting article with a practical approach that many have not considered deeply enough in regards to "percentage of cap spending", - me included.

I am angry at the OP however, because this means this thread will now become the Subban/bridge deal/Bergevin is an idiot/ repository for the next several weeks again as it re-hashes the original thread.

Cue Lafleur's Guy, KrissE, et al.....
If this one goes overboard I'm just gonna lock it right away. No excuses

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07-31-2013, 11:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
He doesn't really acknowledge that cap hit % TODAY isn't as important as cap hit % during Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Eller's primes. In three years we'll be in cal trouble and 5m vs 8m will make a big difference.

Why are people jumping through all these cognitive hoops trying to justify what ultimately is a very dumb move.

Bergevin made a lot of rookie mistakes and he has very little "free" goodwill left. For every good looking move (Cheap Subban! Got rid of cole!) he ruined the very advantage that he got almost immediately (Extend DD to an unreasonable contract! Sign Briere to the same deal as Cole!).

Quit defending the guy, we're going into the season with Bouillon and Drewiskie as our bottom pairing dmen. We're in trouble.
How is 3.5 mil for 4 years an unreasonable extension? If DD puts up 60 pts like a couple years ago, it's a steal of a contract. If he flops and only puts up 30, it's not one of the worst contracts we've seen. Ya, he signed Brière to the same deal as Cole but what's wrong with that? It's a 2 year experiment, it's not like it's putting us over the cap either years. And as for Drewiskie and Bouillon being the 5-6 dmen, check again, Diaz and Tinordi are going to be there, and that sounds great to me. Try not to be so pessimistic.

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07-31-2013, 12:06 PM
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Watch how quick we all turn on PK once he starts being overpaid by 2 - 2.5 million a year. 8 Million is too much.

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07-31-2013, 12:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
His team finished 2nd in the East in his first year on the job after being in the basement the year before, and was nominated for GM of the year.

To even suggest his "goodwill" is starting to run out is laughable.
Out of context, any GM and any player and any move can look good. Or bad.

How about this: A team at full cap capacity got dismantled and embarrassed in 5 games to a team that fielded like 7 rookies, missing its star forward, and playing a one-legged Karlsson. Immediately prior to that, this very same team got dismantled and embarrassed over a 12 game stretch where they went 4w 8l and looked disorganized and exhausted. We would not have finished 2nd in a full season at that trajectory.

At the same time, as most of us agree, the team last year was not as bad as their record.

Besides, I clearly meant goodwill as in the goodwill a new GM gets. He's been on the job for more or less one year and not one of his moves (other than Prust) has looked particularly inspired. The contracts to over-the-hill or never-was players (Bouillon, Drewiskie, Briere), the extension to Desharnais, the way he treated the Subban situation all indicate TO ME a very arrogant yet cautious GM and frankly I'm sick of them considering our last decades worth of GMs were EXTREMELY arrogant and timid on the market.

Enough's enough. No more 5-year-plans, no more "addition by subtraction", no more "character" talk - we have a lot of good pieces, it's time to take it to the next level not to spin our wheels and wait for Price, Patches and Pleks to lose another year of their primes.

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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
There's two ways to look at it. If Bergevin thinks we have a solid D-core at the moment, yeah he's pretty dense. But if he recognizes that not every year can be a 'win now' year, and that biding his (and the organization's) time will be more profitable in the long run, then I think he's already got one up on our last 3 GM's.

What he does with this bought time is another matter.
What has indicated to you, a pretty savvy hockey mind on HF, that Bergevin doesn't think this core is solid? Has he made any moves that would indicate, to you, that he's unhappy with Bouillon and/or Drewiskie's skill level or position on the team?

The way I see it: we're a d-man down and he goes on to extend Drewiskie for TWO YEARS. The very same player who got squeezed out by a rookie, Tindordi, despite being our only deadline acquisition. It's absurd!

And biding time doesn't have any benefits for a middling team. Contenders contend, tankers tank and middling teams have to either acquire the assets they need to make the jump (like San Jose getting Thornton) or sell off to tank (Calgary, Buffalo) or just do nothing and wait for players to hopefully develop. Thing is, aside from Gallager and Galchenyuk we don't have a young team so playing a defense consisting of Subban, Markov, Gorges, Diaz, Bouillon and Drewiskie (in Therrien's insanely loose defensive system) is tantamount to telling Price & Co. to go f themselves because they're not looking to compete this year.

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Originally Posted by Prairie Prince View Post
How is 3.5 mil for 4 years an unreasonable extension? If DD puts up 60 pts like a couple years ago, it's a steal of a contract. If he flops and only puts up 30, it's not one of the worst contracts we've seen. Ya, he signed Brière to the same deal as Cole but what's wrong with that? It's a 2 year experiment, it's not like it's putting us over the cap either years. And as for Drewiskie and Bouillon being the 5-6 dmen, check again, Diaz and Tinordi are going to be there, and that sounds great to me. Try not to be so pessimistic.
Desharnais had ZERO leverage. Undrafted, extremely undersized RFA with bad playoff play and negligible defensive contributions on a team with too many centres as it were - even if they had gone to arbitration he wouldn't have gotten 3.5 over 4. No way.

Emelin is injured to start the year. So that leaves: Subban(1), Markov(2), Gorges(3), Diaz(4), Bouillon(5), Drewiskie(6) and Tinordi(7).

What's very interesting is that if Tinordi beats out Drewiskie for the last place, it basically implies that Bergevin is insanely out of touch - what's the point of a roster D-man if he can't beat out a rookie and doesn't bring anything unique to the table? If we had a specialist (fighter, huge hitter, Penalty Killer, or Powerplay Specialist in MAB or whatever) in the 7th role, then the other 6 would have some sort of heat on them if they don't perform. With Drewiskie, he brings absolutely NOTHING to the table... so what's the point of having him, again? "You can never have enough d-men"... yeah sure you can, that's what the minors are for.

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07-31-2013, 12:18 PM
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It's not just a money thing, it's a character thing. If Subban gets his way and signs a 5-6 yr deal last year I don't think he wins the Norris this year. Look at young guys who sign big deals early...they struggle. Big money messes with young kids...see Doughty, Myers, etc

Bergevin made Subban earn his big dollar contract and he'll be happy to give it to him. To think Subban would have had the kind of season he did if he signed a 6 yr $36M deal is flawed.

And for those of you who hate the word character - there are things you can't measure in stats, and they're the difference between winning a Cup and winning and President's Trophy. MB is showing Subban how to be part of a team and so far, it's going very well.

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07-31-2013, 12:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
He doesn't really acknowledge that cap hit % TODAY isn't as important as cap hit % during Galchenyuk, Gallagher and Eller's primes. In three years we'll be in cal trouble and 5m vs 8m will make a big difference.

Why are people jumping through all these cognitive hoops trying to justify what ultimately is a very dumb move.

Bergevin made a lot of rookie mistakes and he has very little "free" goodwill left. For every good looking move (Cheap Subban! Got rid of cole!) he ruined the very advantage that he got almost immediately (Extend DD to an unreasonable contract! Sign Briere to the same deal as Cole!).

Quit defending the guy, we're going into the season with Bouillon and Drewiskie as our bottom pairing dmen. We're in trouble.
This is the scenario bergevin has created:

$2.8, $2.8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8,

This is the scenario you wanted

$5, $5, $5, $5, $5, $9-10, $9-10, $9-10, $9-10, $9-10 etc


see the difference?

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07-31-2013, 12:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingofdrouin View Post
This is the scenario bergevin has created:

$2.8, $2.8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8, $7-8,

This is the scenario you wanted

$5, $5, $5, $5, $5, $9-10, $9-10, $9-10, $9-10, $9-10 etc


see the difference?
Might as well just making it 20 mil per year while are it

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07-31-2013, 12:48 PM
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Dr Gonzo
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Watch how quick we all turn on PK once he starts being overpaid by 2 - 2.5 million a year. 8 Million is too much.
By that logic he only deserves $5.5M-$6M? And anything above it is overpaid?

I mean...really? If that's how some people perceive it, yeah we'll get some whining, but it'll be baseless whining.

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07-31-2013, 12:48 PM
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Might as well just making it 20 mil per year while are it
Well he is right...that's essentially what MB has done

I didn't agree with it at the time, i've since changed my mind and this article, whether you like the conclusion or not, is well written and explains very clearly the approach Bergevin took.

Doesn't mean the other option would of been bad, I just happen to think it's better in the long run.

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07-31-2013, 12:50 PM
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Unless PK improves his defensive game while getting another Norris, he isn't getting 8M$ per as a RFA guys.

He'll get 7M$ per max IMO. Pietrangelo will be a good comparable.

EDIT : Before people go crazy, I'm not bashing his defensive game, just saying that he needs to work on it to reach the next level.

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07-31-2013, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by ChuckyToGally View Post
Unless PK improves his defensive game while getting another Norris, he isn't getting 8M$ per as a RFA guys.

He'll get 7M$ per max IMO. Pietrangelo will be a good comparable.

EDIT : Before people go crazy, I'm not bashing his defensive game, just saying that he needs to work on it to reach the next level.
Last year I was saying the contrary. His defensive game was top notch, he just needed to dial in the offensive game to produce a Norris, and alas he did, and he produced a Norris.

I'd say his defensive game is actually his strength for the last 2 years. Not that he can't improve, but I am more nervous about him sustaining his offensive output than his defensive game.

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07-31-2013, 12:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 417 View Post
Well he is right...that's essentially what MB has done

I didn't agree with it at the time, i've since changed my mind and this article, whether you like the conclusion or not, is well written and explains very clearly the approach Bergevin took.

Doesn't mean the other option would of been bad, I just happen to think it's better in the long run.
Yes because MB was thinking about the 10 mil per year sidney.. i mean PK subban is going to be fetching in 5 years from when the decision was made...
Unless PK wins another norris or two, you have to REALLY want to make your point by attributing PK making 9-10mil.... just to prove that the bergy way (LOL @ people pointing out MB's plan AFTER PK proved everyone and management that he is worth ALOT to this team) was the best way.

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07-31-2013, 01:20 PM
  #23
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There are several huge flaw in the article.

First, why on Earth would PK take 6.5M on his remaining RFA years. He can easily go to Arbitration get 7-8m then become a UFA and sign his mega deal. We've lost all leverage in his remaining RFA years. He will start out asking for his 8+ even for his RFA years.

Second, how many UFA contracts increase in salary by 250K a year for their duration like the article is suggesting. I can't think of a single one. Any UFA contract will have most of the money up front. This is because of the time value of money, the extra million early on is worth more right away then in a few years.

Third, the article completely ignores the human factor. By low-balling him on his bridge deal we've essentially told him it's all business, so in his next contract when he has leverage he is more likely to use that to get the maximum amount he can because after all it's not personal it's just business. Had we given him a long term deal right away we would be more likely to get a hometown discount because we showed faith/loyalty in him.

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07-31-2013, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Gonzo View Post
Last year I was saying the contrary. His defensive game was top notch, he just needed to dial in the offensive game to produce a Norris, and alas he did, and he produced a Norris.

I'd say his defensive game is actually his strength for the last 2 years. Not that he can't improve, but I am more nervous about him sustaining his offensive output than his defensive game.
Yup. This guy gets it.

It drives me mad how many people don't realize that. I mean I think it's really obvious that he's very good defensively (the best shutdown D of our team IMO). And I'll add that he's been very good defensively for the last two years.

TSN even said that PK would battle for an offensive spot on team Canada while guys like Phaneuf would be considered more for a shutdown role. How ****ing hilarious is that? PK is so much better in that role than Dion it's not even funny.

Michel Therrien didn't use him as much as he could have in defensive situations last year (was used a lot just not excessively like you would expect) and people are using that to jusitfy their opinion on PK instead of actually watching him play. Jacques Martin used him the way he should two years ago and he was one of the only bright spot of the team.

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07-31-2013, 01:40 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuckyToGally View Post
Unless PK improves his defensive game while getting another Norris, he isn't getting 8M$ per as a RFA guys.

He'll get 7M$ per max IMO. Pietrangelo will be a good comparable.

EDIT : Before people go crazy, I'm not bashing his defensive game, just saying that he needs to work on it to reach the next level.
Work on what? He's already one of the best defensive D in the league. His play in his own zone is phenomenal. Like Gonzo said, his D has been better than his offense.

What exactly in his defensive game does PK need to work on?

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