HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > By The Numbers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

By The Numbers Hockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

Oilers, Leafs, Flames near the bottom, Sens near the top - Analytics report

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
07-30-2013, 04:49 PM
  #51
Tuggy
Registered User
 
Tuggy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Saint John
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,949
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Good thing luck has nothing to do with playing sports.
Is this a serious post because if so, that is an absurd statement.

Tuggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 05:02 PM
  #52
Subbanned
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 845
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmellOfVictory View Post
You realize the reason people use advanced stats is to limit the faults of human observation as much as possible, right? The argument your making is that a single non-expert observer (you) has done such a good job of viewing every single Leafs play of the past x number of games that this single non-expert observer provides better analysis of the games than indicators (shots and percentages) collected from every game by multiple people who are paid to do so.

Did you watch every second of the game intently? Did you never stop to talk to your buddy, eat some food, or drink some beer? Were you 100% sober for all of the games? Did you never let your mind wander to any other topic? Did you always follow the puck from end-to-end without watching what was happening on the bench or in the crowd? Did you keep track of the number of shots off the rush vs the number of dump-ins, or was it just a "feeling" you got from watching the games? Were you entirely unemotional while watching? Did you track the distance of each shot from the net?

Because those are just a chunk of the human factors that lead to faulty, garbage analysis of sports, especially fast-moving ones like hockey, and the reason that some people prefer numbers that, while imperfect, are better than a single non-expert observer (or a single observer of any kind).

In conclusion: hurr durr.
Haha that was cute, but this has nothing to do with my person game-watching routines nor any nonexistent implications that my statements are based on emotion. If it were, it would sway to dismiss the Leafs success as I want anything but for them to succeed.

This is per professional coaches, scouts, and executives that DO watch, re-watch, and analyze every second of game in conjunction with statistical support to conclude that the Leafs capitalized off the rush. All this information can be found in the recent Summer Interview series on Maple Leafs Hot Stove, which has an uncanny ability to get better and more pointed interviews with hockey staff then I've seen in any main media outlet or internet source league-wide.

In conclusion: nice try, thanks for coming out.

Subbanned is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 05:05 PM
  #53
Poignant Discussion
I tell it like it is
 
Poignant Discussion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatineau, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,646
vCash: 500
Send a message via MSN to Poignant Discussion Send a message via Yahoo to Poignant Discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmellOfVictory View Post
They do. They tend to defy averages based on providing a superior shot differential.

In terms of percentages, I don't have any citations on-hand, but there has been a strong correlation found between shot attempts (Fenwick, Corsi) and scoring chances, and there is very obviously a strong correlation between scoring chances and goals.

So yes, as an earlier poster said, goals determine the winner. However, goals are variable based to a notable degree on luck (not majority, but notable) and thus very difficult to predict. The ability to outshoot, however, is based substantially less on luck and thus easier to predict. Just because a team outshoots does not mean it will outscore and thus win, but long term it is the best way to analyze hockey. It's certainly better than "lol but this guy hits hard and scares other guys" or "look at the heart this team plays with".
Isn't there a section for this?

I don't go into that section because I'm not interested in advanced stats crap. This isn't baseball

Poignant Discussion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 05:11 PM
  #54
WarriorofTime
HFBoards Sponsor
 
WarriorofTime's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 15,140
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
Good thing luck has nothing to do with playing sports.
How can anybody say this? One bounce can be the difference between eternal glory and being entirely forgotten.

WarriorofTime is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 05:16 PM
  #55
Here I Pageau Again
Registered User
 
Here I Pageau Again's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 4,064
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
How can anybody say this? One bounce can be the difference between eternal glory and being entirely forgotten.
I'm pretty sure that comment deserved a

Either way, of course luck has something to do with the game. That said, a team that "statistically" had tonnes of luck, is not necessarily going to repeat. While a team that had minimal luck "statistically" is more likely going to at least stay in a similar position.

Here I Pageau Again is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 05:16 PM
  #56
Puckschmuck*
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Winnipeg
Country: Canada
Posts: 5,934
vCash: 500
The Leafs prediction makes me particularly gleeful.

Puckschmuck* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 05:17 PM
  #57
GordieHoweHatTrick
Registered User
 
GordieHoweHatTrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Toronto
Posts: 15,406
vCash: 126
I'll eat my sock if it happens.

GordieHoweHatTrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 05:27 PM
  #58
BlueDream
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 13,260
vCash: 500
And fans of those three teams are mad, what a shock.

BlueDream is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 06:26 PM
  #59
jack mullet
@jackmullethockey
 
jack mullet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Baxter, MN
Country: United States
Posts: 497
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuggy View Post
Is this a serious post because if so, that is an absurd statement.
luck is an excuse used by those who lose

jack mullet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 06:35 PM
  #60
htpwn
Registered User
 
htpwn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Toronto
Country: Poland
Posts: 16,119
vCash: 500
How, exactly, does one take last season's results and use them to predict how teams will perform the next year?

Different Season, Different Teams, Different Training Regiments in the Off-Season, Different Schedule, Different Divisions.

The base variables have changed to such a drastic effect that I can't see how it would be effective.

htpwn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 06:51 PM
  #61
Wheatking
Registered User
 
Wheatking's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Country: Canada
Posts: 15,613
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reign Nateo View Post
Makes sense really. The Oilers were not hard to play against last year and outside of Hall, didn't create much. Not sure how they've changed their roster much, Perron should help, so I can see where these numbers come from.
RNH being healthy should lead to some improvement. Eberle is a good player but IMO he's the complimentary player in that pairing. RNH gets going and suddenly Eberle is scoring a lot more goals.

Wheatking is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 06:51 PM
  #62
Delamarche
So help me God!
 
Delamarche's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: with brunelda
Posts: 5,765
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by GordieHoweHatTrick View Post
I'll eat my sock if it happens.
You'll eat your sock if the Oilers, Flames, Leafs are near the bottom and Sens near the top? I mean, I don't think it'll happen either, but it's not that crazy.

Delamarche is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 07:32 PM
  #63
Warden of the North
Global Moderator
hmmmmmmm
 
Warden of the North's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Muskoka
Country: Canada
Posts: 26,389
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuggy View Post
Is this a serious post because if so, that is an absurd statement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
How can anybody say this? One bounce can be the difference between eternal glory and being entirely forgotten.
I guess I should have put the in the post.

Its absurd to leave out luck in hockey, which is exactly what Vollman tried to do.

Warden of the North is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 08:51 PM
  #64
KingKopitar11*
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: staples center
Country: Russian Federation
Posts: 16,397
vCash: 500
Lol this guy is an idiot. It always turns out to be the opposite when "analysts" make an "analysis".

KingKopitar11* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 08:56 PM
  #65
Ishdul
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Country: Lithuania
Posts: 3,613
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
I guess I should have put the in the post.

Its absurd to leave out luck in hockey, which is exactly what Vollman tried to do.
Again, he isn't trying to leave out luck, he's making the likeliest projection according to his model. Predicting which star player is going to tear his ACL because he skates over a rut in the ice during preseason is not a fruitful venture and it is asinine to do so. It's like saying that a poker player is leaving luck out when calculating the odds that Ace-King suited will beat a pair of Fives.

Ishdul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-30-2013, 08:59 PM
  #66
The Hockey Life
HFB Partner
 
The Hockey Life's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Leafs Nation
Posts: 1,360
vCash: 500
"Analysis" had Leafs finishing 12th in the East last year..

The Hockey Life is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 02:47 PM
  #67
Master_Of_Districts
Registered User
 
Master_Of_Districts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Black Ruthenia
Country: Belarus
Posts: 1,744
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Hockey Life View Post
"Analysis" had Leafs finishing 12th in the East last year..
How does that negate the reasonableness of the prediction?

Because of the randomness that inheres in an 82 game sample, the best team in the league (with respect to underlying talent) could miss the playoffs in any particular year.

If that happens, does that mean that the person who predicted the team to finish first is a fool?

Of course not.

The fool is the person who fails to understand that there is an imperfect correspondence between talent and results.

Master_Of_Districts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 02:53 PM
  #68
Bear of Bad News
Mod Supervisor
 
Bear of Bad News's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: San Angeles
Posts: 4,336
vCash: 663
Precisely.

Related - folks who didn't use analysis made a lot of predictions last year that turned out to be silly. Is that a mandate to use analysis? No. And neither is this a reason to toss it all out.

Bear of Bad News is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 03:03 PM
  #69
Ishdul
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Country: Lithuania
Posts: 3,613
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
How does that negate the reasonableness of the prediction?

Because of the randomness that inheres in an 82 game sample, the best team in the league (with respect to underlying talent) could miss the playoffs in any particular year.

If that happens, does that mean that the person who predicted the team to finish first is a fool?

Of course not.

The fool is the person who fails to understand that there is an imperfect correspondence between talent and results.
And of course, it wasn't an 82 game season we had, it was 48 games which meant even more variance in the results.

Ishdul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 03:10 PM
  #70
Lacaar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 2,387
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
RNH being healthy should lead to some improvement. Eberle is a good player but IMO he's the complimentary player in that pairing. RNH gets going and suddenly Eberle is scoring a lot more goals.
Really the one thing I think I can take from this is that yes perhaps the Oilers may have been the worst team last year. Doesn't mean they'll be the worst team this year though perhaps likely though. If we just based the next years standings off of last years performances nothing would really ever change.

Lacaar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 03:20 PM
  #71
saskganesh
Registered User
 
saskganesh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: the Annex
Country: Canada
Posts: 2,273
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by htpwn View Post
How, exactly, does one take last season's results and use them to predict how teams will perform the next year?

Different Season, Different Teams, Different Training Regiments in the Off-Season, Different Schedule, Different Divisions.

The base variables have changed to such a drastic effect that I can't see how it would be effective.
Almost 24 hrs later from your post, I'd also like to know.

saskganesh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 05:25 PM
  #72
Ishdul
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Country: Lithuania
Posts: 3,613
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lacaar View Post
Really the one thing I think I can take from this is that yes perhaps the Oilers may have been the worst team last year. Doesn't mean they'll be the worst team this year though perhaps likely though. If we just based the next years standings off of last years performances nothing would really ever change.
Given that the rankings have the Senators at a 1 in 3 shot of winning the President's Trophy we can make a reasonable guess that they're projecting some change.

Ishdul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 07:06 PM
  #73
TieClark
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,113
vCash: 500
Analytics suggest the 29th overall Leafs team was far better than last years Leaf team.

TieClark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 07:18 PM
  #74
Bear of Bad News
Mod Supervisor
 
Bear of Bad News's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: San Angeles
Posts: 4,336
vCash: 663
Quote:
Originally Posted by TieClark View Post
Analytics suggest the 29th overall Leafs team was far better than last years Leaf team.
Please elaborate.

Bear of Bad News is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
07-31-2013, 07:23 PM
  #75
TieClark
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 4,113
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Please elaborate.
The Leafs Fenwick from the year they finished 29th overall would be far better than last year despite last years team clearly being a lot better than the 29th placed team.

TieClark is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:02 AM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2016 All Rights Reserved.