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Really good explaination of how Bergevin did right thing with subban.

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Old
07-31-2013, 11:28 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by MaxHabs24 View Post
C'mon BLONG, I didn't say that. I'm hoping the best for him and even if he wins another Norris next season I'm still hoping we can sign him for less than 7M$.
I just don't think he should be paid more than Price (6.5M$) our best player. And if he asks for 7.5M$ or 8M$, it will take a long time before MB and PK will agree and maybe he will leave for another team ready to give way more than 7M$
Sorry buddy but Subban is by far our best player. He has been our best player for the past two years.

He is way above anyone on this team and not any other player is close to his level. Might change this year but right now, he's at the top.

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07-31-2013, 11:51 PM
  #77
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The problem of his article is that alot of his arguments are on the basis of an estimated and probably overated cap hit Subban youls have after a 5/6 years contract signed this summer. While the 8 millions cap hit after next season is a real possibility, I think the 11.4 and 12.5 millions exagerated (Especially seeing Malkin, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk and Crosby contracts). All his arguments came from thoses invented numbers...

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08-01-2013, 12:31 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by dreamingofdrouin View Post
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/20...-a-bridge-deal

i know theres a subban thread just couldnt find it...feel free to move this to there.
Nice data-based analysis, not just emotion!

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08-01-2013, 01:10 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by BaseballCoach View Post
Nice data-based analysis, not just emotion!
Data > Emotion, you are right. But made up or incorrect data is just as worthless.

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08-01-2013, 03:38 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by E = CH² View Post
Data > Emotion, you are right. But made up or incorrect data is just as worthless.
Made up, incorrect, or even just slightly off data is MUCH worse than conclusions reached via emotion/subjective interpretation...

the use/reliance on data carries with it an implied sense of objective certainty, which suffocates reasonable doubt/critique.

a small flaw in data collection or interpretation by default creates an exponential error in judgment because of the certainty bias.

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08-01-2013, 09:42 AM
  #81
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One point in the article that looks off is a continuing increase of 10% in the salary cap. That seems to be completely unrealistic since it requires continual heavy growth in revenues, yet even this year the cap numbers went down. It is very doubtful those will be the actual increases. As a result, all those %age numbers would be way off.

Year Estimated salary cap
2012-13 $70.2M
2013-14 $64.3M
2014-15 $70.0M
2015-16 $76.2M
2016-17 $83.0M
2017-18 $90.3M
2018-19 $98.3M
2019-20 $107.0M
2020-21 $116.5M
2021-22 $126.8M


Last edited by RealityBytes: 08-01-2013 at 09:54 AM.
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08-01-2013, 10:00 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Ditchweed View Post
One point in the article that looks off is a continuing increase of 10% in the salary cap. That seems to be completely unrealistic since it requires continual heavy growth in revenues, yet even this year the cap numbers went down. It is very doubtful those will be the actual increases. As a result, all those %age numbers would be way off.
You are right, growth since 2005 has averaged 6.3%. His projections are too lofty.

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08-01-2013, 10:11 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by Ditchweed View Post
One point in the article that looks off is a continuing increase of 10% in the salary cap. That seems to be completely unrealistic since it requires continual heavy growth in revenues, yet even this year the cap numbers went down. It is very doubtful those will be the actual increases. As a result, all those %age numbers would be way off.

Year Estimated salary cap
2012-13 $70.2M
2013-14 $64.3M
2014-15 $70.0M
2015-16 $76.2M
2016-17 $83.0M
2017-18 $90.3M
2018-19 $98.3M
2019-20 $107.0M
2020-21 $116.5M
2021-22 $126.8M
I'm not sure how you find the projected financial growth/salary cap unreasonable.

Berkshire used the 8.9% annual growth average from the last CBA period. The league may even surpass these numbers, especially if one or two struggling teams move and the certain addition of 2 more franchises to make an even 30.

The cap going down for 2014 is not based on revenues per se, but is an artificial limit imposed through negotiation in the current CBA.

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Old
08-01-2013, 10:23 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
Was his father a hamster lol
Nope.

His mother was though.

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08-01-2013, 11:16 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by dreamingofdrouin View Post
First of all, PK was tops on our team in toi and tops in PP toi, so he was neither a 2nd line pp or bottom pairing d-man....you couldn't have watched many games if you believe that.

Second...no, i can't claim it as fact that our team will be contenders in 6 to 7 years, but nor can you claim it fact that we will be contenders next year or in a couple years.

I do believe we have an opportunity to give it one last hoorah with the current core we have, but the core of the future is the one that we should be building for and the road to that future still has some bumps left in it.

We are going to build it through the draft...that is fact. bergy said so..so i don't think we should be too worried about acquiring the big fish, our fish will come from or TT's draft record and Bergevin's patience to finally give this team what it needs...a slow, precise and solid rebuild.

We will continue to get better and better as the old are replaced with the improved new and yes, we might have a shot soon, but in my opinion we are better off having subban at a discount in the future than in the next couple years. Having him at a discount does not guarantee us a big UFA. Why overpay a UFA only to give ourselves a cap problem there in the future as well as a more expensive PK?

It would simply be the same impatience that has been keeping our tires spinning for the past 20 years.
PK started the year on Bouillon's wing and Diaz was on the first PP wave with Markov.
It wasn't until Diaz got injured that Therrien really started using PK more as a top Dman. I remember this very well.

I never claimed we would be contenders in the next few years, hence me talking about a window (under our current core). If we're not contenders within the next few years, that means management is taking a much longer time to organize this ship, or just failing.
As for us continuing to be better and better, one can only hope. We all hope that we will keep drafting amazing prospects. But we don't know how any of those picks will turn out yet, only Galchenyuk and he was a no-brainer #3 overall.

You need to make good free agent signings otherwise you end up like Edmonton, so many good young players, some great, but they never go anywhere because they're not well surrounded by solid vets.
The point is to save cash so if a Hossa type is available, you'll have money for him, or if you need two solid guys, you have cash for it. Whatever it is, the more cash you have, the more options will be open.
And what discount to PK are you talking about? If PK gets a deal similar to what the article states, that's 8M. I don't expect the league to grow to the point where 8M will be considered a discount.

The reality is our current cup window is likely to be during Price's prime, which is in the next couple of years. It coincides with MaxPac's as well. PK already won the norris so his time is certainly now (and hopefully later as well). We will have older guys still effective like Plekanec, younger ones that can bring solid contributions like the Gals. Really, in the next 2-4 years, if we're not contenders then we failed.
So during that stretch, if big UFAs or decent solid ones are available, and you need to overpay, you do it. You don't pass up on a Hossa type. So it would have been nice to have a discounted PK.

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Old
08-01-2013, 11:24 AM
  #86
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Originally Posted by snakeye View Post
The bridge contact was the right move because of the "WHO KNOWS???" factor, which turned out to be a positive "who knew". Subban won the norris, which was a positive deviation from the average projection people were giving him at the time of the signing. Did anyone KNOW he was going to win the norris? Of course not. Everyone's acting like they did, though. Hindsight......

Likewise, his his projection could have deviated negatively and he could have had a horrible season, even regressing quite a bit. But that's not possible due to his character and the awesome interviews he gives on OTR and his father is a great guy and..... Hindsight, and on top of that, rationalization for his success. FRICKEN GOMEZ had character at some point. What really matters is effectiveness on the ice, and MB wanted to see more of it before signing him long term for big bucks.

All the people that don't believe that subban could have regressed are being completely unrealistic and are right where they should be, behind a keyboar in their basement, far away from habs management.
Really?
Did you think PK would regress? Based on what? An absolute random guess?
Hey, maybe PK gets hit by a bus driving to a game just a few days into the season.

There was no reason to believe PK would regress. If you followed the kid through the ranks, the opposite is what you should actually expect. He has had incredibly fast progressions through his years, and he is extremely professional regarding his training/development. So at his age, with no injuries, you really had no reason to believe he was going to regress. Could it have been a possibilty? Sure, the same is true for every player in the NHL, every year.

Nobody is acting like it was a known fact PK was going to win the Norris, but go back to the negotiation threads and you'll see a lot of people expected PK to keep progressing and was a sure bet. They didn't need hindsight.

I also want to make sure that PK didn't have to win the Norris. If he had a similar season to his sophomore one, he would already have been worth a longer cheaper term deal.

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08-01-2013, 11:34 AM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
Really?
Did you think PK would regress? Based on what? An absolute random guess?
Hey, maybe PK gets hit by a bus driving to a game just a few days into the season.

There was no reason to believe PK would regress. If you followed the kid through the ranks, the opposite is what you should actually expect. He has had incredibly fast progressions through his years, and he is extremely professional regarding his training/development. So at his age, with no injuries, you really had no reason to believe he was going to regress. Could it have been a possibilty? Sure, the same is true for every player in the NHL, every year.

Nobody is acting like it was a known fact PK was going to win the Norris, but go back to the negotiation threads and you'll see a lot of people expected PK to keep progressing and was a sure bet. They didn't need hindsight.

I also want to make sure that PK didn't have to win the Norris. If he had a similar season to his sophomore one, he would already have been worth a longer cheaper term deal.
Yep
Bridge contract to your best player, who even helped you in the playoffs as a rookie, is disrespectful

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08-01-2013, 11:35 AM
  #88
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The thing I really didn't factor into the deal when I first looked at it is how much longer the habs can potentially control Subban's rights via a bridge deal versus having signed him to a 5 or 6 year deal last summer. Subban has always reminded me of Chelios and while I can't possibly hope for that kind of career length, Subban is the kind of player who might well be enormously valuable for a decade plus.

If we had signed him to a 5 or 6 year deal he'd be UFA at the end of it. By bridging him and with the special allowance teams have to sign their own players for longer, we have the option of keeping Subban from hitting the UFA market for up to eight more years after this one. That's a major potential long term asset for the org. Who knows how things will play out, but damn I sure with Chelios had played more of his career in a habs uni than he did. Like to keep PK here as long as possible. He's a winner.

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08-01-2013, 11:51 AM
  #89
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Originally Posted by 417 View Post
He risked losing him for nothing?

How did he do that exactly?
Not for nothing, but from a significantly reduced spot for leverage, this came very close to getting ugly. To the point where PK called his family together to discuss the direction. Had he decided that he was being bent over too much and requested a trade, Marc Bergevin would look like an extreme idiot today, it was close and many analysts/experts suggested the gap was far and s trade was very possible. This would have been a colossal mistake, Bergevin played chicken this time ans was lucky PK was willing to sign for the peanuts they offered.

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08-01-2013, 11:51 AM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Bullsmith View Post
The thing I really didn't factor into the deal when I first looked at it is how much longer the habs can potentially control Subban's rights via a bridge deal versus having signed him to a 5 or 6 year deal last summer. Subban has always reminded me of Chelios and while I can't possibly hope for that kind of career length, Subban is the kind of player who might well be enormously valuable for a decade plus.

If we had signed him to a 5 or 6 year deal he'd be UFA at the end of it. By bridging him and with the special allowance teams have to sign their own players for longer, we have the option of keeping Subban from hitting the UFA market for up to eight more years after this one. That's a major potential long term asset for the org. Who knows how things will play out, but damn I sure with Chelios had played more of his career in a habs uni than he did. Like to keep PK here as long as possible. He's a winner.
This is simply not true. Nothing prevents us from re-signing him after his initial long term deal unless you think Subban wants to be a UFA. And if you do believe that then we actually lose out because Subban doesn't have to sign an 8 year deal, he can go to Arbiration get his 1-2 years at 7+ million and then hit UFA even earlier then the long term deal.

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08-01-2013, 11:54 AM
  #91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groovejuice View Post
I'm not sure how you find the projected financial growth/salary cap unreasonable.

Berkshire used the 8.9% annual growth average from the last CBA period. The league may even surpass these numbers, especially if one or two struggling teams move and the certain addition of 2 more franchises to make an even 30.

The cap going down for 2014 is not based on revenues per se, but is an artificial limit imposed through negotiation in the current CBA.
Yes let's assume perfect situations for the next 10 years. Very realistic.

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08-01-2013, 12:08 PM
  #92
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Wow, 9% growth for the next 10 years hey? With this information I care less about the Subban contract and its consequences, and more about potential investment opportunities in the NHL and affiliated businesses.

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08-01-2013, 12:44 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe View Post
Yes let's assume perfect situations for the next 10 years. Very realistic.
Shake your head all you like, it is perfectly realistic to predict regular and steady growth of NHL revenues.

If the situation was perfect, growth would be much higher than the 8.9% average in the last CBA era cited in the article.


Last edited by groovejuice: 08-01-2013 at 12:52 PM.
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08-01-2013, 12:58 PM
  #94
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Really?
Did you think PK would regress? Based on what? An absolute random guess?
Hey, maybe PK gets hit by a bus driving to a game just a few days into the season.

There was no reason to believe PK would regress. If you followed the kid through the ranks, the opposite is what you should actually expect. He has had incredibly fast progressions through his years, and he is extremely professional regarding his training/development. So at his age, with no injuries, you really had no reason to believe he was going to regress. Could it have been a possibilty? Sure, the same is true for every player in the NHL, every year.

Nobody is acting like it was a known fact PK was going to win the Norris, but go back to the negotiation threads and you'll see a lot of people expected PK to keep progressing and was a sure bet. They didn't need hindsight.

I also want to make sure that PK didn't have to win the Norris. If he had a similar season to his sophomore one, he would already have been worth a longer cheaper term deal.
Hence the reason for a bridge contact; to give time to assess a player's worth, during a stage in which he's still developing.

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08-01-2013, 01:04 PM
  #95
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Sounds like a good reason to never be critical of any long-term contract...

And the insanity of that line indicates this isn't a "really good explanation"...

I'm reminded of an investment motto, "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results"...

Should have given him a 15 year, 75 million dollar deal if you really wanted to look smart...


Last edited by Gobias Industries: 08-01-2013 at 01:13 PM.
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08-01-2013, 01:07 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by Kriss E View Post
PK started the year on Bouillon's wing and Diaz was on the first PP wave with Markov.
It wasn't until Diaz got injured that Therrien really started using PK more as a top Dman. I remember this very well.

I never claimed we would be contenders in the next few years, hence me talking about a window (under our current core). If we're not contenders within the next few years, that means management is taking a much longer time to organize this ship, or just failing.
As for us continuing to be better and better, one can only hope. We all hope that we will keep drafting amazing prospects. But we don't know how any of those picks will turn out yet, only Galchenyuk and he was a no-brainer #3 overall.

You need to make good free agent signings otherwise you end up like Edmonton, so many good young players, some great, but they never go anywhere because they're not well surrounded by solid vets.
The point is to save cash so if a Hossa type is available, you'll have money for him, or if you need two solid guys, you have cash for it. Whatever it is, the more cash you have, the more options will be open.
And what discount to PK are you talking about? If PK gets a deal similar to what the article states, that's 8M. I don't expect the league to grow to the point where 8M will be considered a discount.

The reality is our current cup window is likely to be during Price's prime, which is in the next couple of years. It coincides with MaxPac's as well. PK already won the norris so his time is certainly now (and hopefully later as well). We will have older guys still effective like Plekanec, younger ones that can bring solid contributions like the Gals. Really, in the next 2-4 years, if we're not contenders then we failed.
So during that stretch, if big UFAs or decent solid ones are available, and you need to overpay, you do it. You don't pass up on a Hossa type. So it would have been nice to have a discounted PK.
No...that is the impatient mentality that has rode us into the ground for the last 20 years. Your thinking about this the wrong way. I want to be good for years and years, and it's not by any means out of the qeustion if we stick to the draft.

Galchenyuk will be 22 in 4 years...all of our stars will be in their prime or just entering it and we will be thankfull that we won;t have to resign PK subban to an even bigger caphit than 7-8.
The league is absolutely booming right now even after the lockout.

We don't need the extra 3 million in cap space to get guys for the next few years won't be as important as the space we'll have down the road.
Gionta comes off the books next year, so does markov, than the year after that briere and plekanec.

Our cap space is fine and if a good ufa comes available and he doesn't want the moon we will have sufficient space to sign them.

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08-01-2013, 01:08 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by groovejuice View Post
Shake your head all you like, it is perfectly realistic to predict regular and steady growth of NHL revenues.

If the situation was perfect, growth would be much higher than the 8.9% average in the last CBA era cited in the article.
I've attached a graph of the predicted growth. Berkshire has used an exponential model for HRR growth. And you're saying that it could be expected to be much higher than that?
Attached Images
File Type: jpg cap.jpg‎ (15.7 KB, 11 views)

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08-01-2013, 02:01 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
I've attached a graph of the predicted growth. Berkshire has used an exponential model for HRR growth. And you're saying that it could be expected to be much higher than that?
Don't forget that in 2021-22 a cap of $126.8M means the average salary is 5.5 million a player on a 23 man roster.

Teams that can't spend to the cap will have to be gone by then.

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08-01-2013, 02:02 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by CrAzYNiNe View Post
Don't forget that in 2021-22 a cap of $126.8M means the average salary is 5.5 million a player on a 23 man roster.
And don't forget there will be a new CBA, something the article seemed to ignore..

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08-01-2013, 02:05 PM
  #100
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And don't forget there will be a new CBA, something the article seemed to ignore..
A lot of things get ignored, because nothing that we talk about on this forum, or in his article is reality.

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