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Flyers "Flight Plan": New Behind the Scenes Series

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08-07-2013, 08:43 AM
  #126
RJ8812
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well, it's pretty obvious that the posters on this board think they know more about the potential draftees than our scouts

Flyers definitely should have gotten us to draft for them...

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08-07-2013, 09:00 AM
  #127
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Thanks to all who questioned my post. Of course a huge portion of my reaction is personal bias; I always try to be up front with that. Like most here, I haven't seen the prospects up close and live, and haven't studied their relative skill sets. I tried to look at the different scouting reports and videos (though the highlights packages generally strike me as wastes of time for evaluating a player's skills), and read up on the many opinions. I was hoping for an excellent overall defender with superior offensive upside: that was my hope and my estimation of what player profile would best complement the Flyers' current prospect assortment.

The discussion in this episode didn't enhance my (limited) assessment of Morin as a big, mean defenseman. They say he has the biggest upside; I'll have to put stock in their professional opinion over my largely uninformed one. However, the emphasis on his toughness and willingness to slash another player, to me, doesn't address what I believe the Flyers need.

It's all moot, of course, as the players I valued over Morin were off the board, but I rest with my opinion, as non-evidence-based as it is, given that nobody – not even the scouts – has a monopoly on proof or a crystal ball.

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08-07-2013, 10:22 AM
  #128
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Why is it because the others were ranked higher by all the services or personal viewings? Just a quick word on the services: these are scouts who more than likely are (never made it) or were not good enough (fired for one reason or anther) to make it to the NHL. If they were good enough, they would be make more money in the big leagues than working for CS or ISS or whatever in all likelihood. The other point is that there is zero pressure for these ranking services. If a pro team is wrong, there will be layoffs as poor scouting leads to waste of assets and money and can cripple a franchise. Does anybody really notice if central scouting gets something wrong and does anybody care enough to have guys fired? The pro teams scouts probably look into more detail into things like personality, work ethic, sign ability, on and off ice demeanor than the services because their jobs literally depend on it.
Just to clarify: there is a big difference between NHL Central Scouting Bureau and other website based services like ISS, RedLine, etc.

Central Scouting Bureau is a department of the NHL: a staff of professional scouts working for the NHL to help save the teams money on scouting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_Cen...couting_Bureau

Teams like the Flyers have a lot of money to spend on their own scouts to augment the reports they get from the CSB, but I'm sure they also use the CSB detailed reports as part of their info gathering. We only see the CSB lists, but I'm pretty sure there are more detailed reports available on the players that the teams have exclusive access too, as filed by the pro scouts working for CSB.

Teams with less money to spend have to rely more on the CSB rankings, since they don't have the small army of scouts with unlimited airfare and hotel resources available to them that the richer teams do.

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08-07-2013, 10:25 AM
  #129
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None of us has 1/100th of the information or insight into all these players that the scouts do. I'm sure they have ALL their games on video, probably broken down by shift. They know their skills, how they play in different situations, and most importantly from seeing them play live - how they play away from the puck.

You can never really tell how a good a guy is until you see him play live. Many times. On the road and at home. The scouts do. All we can do as fans is trust they go with their gut instincts and pick the right guys.
You're pumping up the scouts a bit too much. 1/100th? We just watched a group allow Monahan to fall out of the top ten.

They get to see them live 6-10 times. They have a lot of players to watch. They get access to video, some info we do not have, and a community of scouts.

But a lot of the people on here could have given you a reliable top 10-20 just by their CHL viewing habits the same way I could give you a top 20 players in the NHL because I watch a lot of hockey.


Last edited by Flyotes: 08-07-2013 at 10:33 AM.
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08-07-2013, 10:39 AM
  #130
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For as much hype that this got, I was left a little underwhelmed. Maybe a little more 1on1 interviews would have been nicer. The best part was Chris Pronger and his socks.

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08-07-2013, 11:43 AM
  #131
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After watching the episode I got the sense that the Flyers scouts almost made it impossible to not draft a defenseman. Any forward that might have been available at 11 they pushed them down far enough so that according to their list that player wouldn't be BPA. They had Morin, Nurse, Risto, Zadorov all in that 6-10 area. It's almost like Holmgren knew it with his "fading under pressure comment" about Monahan.

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08-07-2013, 12:25 PM
  #132
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The elongated pause before he said that was classic Homer.

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08-07-2013, 12:52 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
After watching the episode I got the sense that the Flyers scouts almost made it impossible to not draft a defenseman. Any forward that might have been available at 11 they pushed them down far enough so that according to their list that player wouldn't be BPA. They had Morin, Nurse, Risto, Zadorov all in that 6-10 area. It's almost like Holmgren knew it with his "fading under pressure comment" about Monahan.
and if the Flyers would have drafted a forward this board would have exploded and called for Homer to be fired for the millionth time

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08-07-2013, 12:54 PM
  #134
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For as much hype that this got, I was left a little underwhelmed. Maybe a little more 1on1 interviews would have been nicer. The best part was Chris Pronger and his socks.
I actually thought it was more insightful than I anticipated and hope they stay away from 1 on 1 interviews. I want to see how these guys interact with each other, not spout stock answers to someone from the media. I want to see how these types of decisions come together, not have someone talk about how it happened afterwards in an interview.

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08-07-2013, 01:08 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by RJ8812 View Post
and if the Flyers would have drafted a forward this board would have exploded and called for Homer to be fired for the millionth time
Personally, I would have been happy with the risk of choosing Nichushkin. Other than him, I'm glad they went with D.

I'd also be very interested to see what the Montreal offer was for the 11th pick. Obviously not enough to sway Holmgren. I'm thinking one of their 2nds, which I'd be glad Holmgren passed on.

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08-07-2013, 01:15 PM
  #136
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and if the Flyers would have drafted a forward this board would have exploded and called for Homer to be fired for the millionth time
Instead they drafted a defenseman and we have almost the exact same reaction.

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08-07-2013, 01:25 PM
  #137
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and if the Flyers would have drafted a forward this board would have exploded and called for Homer to be fired for the millionth time
Some would, not all. The Flyers have clearly earned some leverage with first round picks with a lot of people, especially around here.

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08-07-2013, 06:18 PM
  #138
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well, it's pretty obvious that the posters on this board think they know more about the potential draftees than our scouts

Flyers definitely should have gotten us to draft for them...
Nurse and Ristolainen were both selected ahead of Morin, so please stop framing this as expert scouts vs know-nothing posters. There were obviously other scouts and GMs who share these opinions. In reality, our scouts were the ones who deviated from the scouting consensus.

Following up on what DownieFaceSoftener said, I think they should hire more scouts. One league scout watching a player 10-15 times is not a huge repository of knowledge, and it seems like it could be improved by spending money on more scouts.


Last edited by Damaged Goods: 08-07-2013 at 06:26 PM.
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08-07-2013, 07:01 PM
  #139
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Nurse and Ristolainen were both selected ahead of Morin, so please stop framing this as expert scouts vs know-nothing posters. There were obviously other scouts and GMs who share these opinions. In reality, our scouts were the ones who deviated from the scouting consensus.

Following up on what DownieFaceSoftener said, I think they should hire more scouts. One league scout watching a player 10-15 times is not a huge repository of knowledge, and it seems like it could be improved by spending money on more scouts.
I'll be sending in an application shortly

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08-07-2013, 07:05 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Nurse and Ristolainen were both selected ahead of Morin, so please stop framing this as expert scouts vs know-nothing posters. There were obviously other scouts and GMs who share these opinions. In reality, our scouts were the ones who deviated from the scouting consensus.

Following up on what DownieFaceSoftener said, I think they should hire more scouts. One league scout watching a player 10-15 times is not a huge repository of knowledge, and it seems like it could be improved by spending money on more scouts.
Dont even know how to look this up but I would bet the Flyers scouting payroll/# of scouts is probably up there towards the top of the league? Or would I be way off thinking that?

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08-07-2013, 07:23 PM
  #141
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I'll be sending in an application shortly
Apparently some others on here should as well as long as they have their public scouting rankings & some statistics.

-----------------------------

I don't think Greig was accounting for all the international tournaments through out the year. I believe he was referring only to their club team games.

There's three international tournaments through out the year: WJC U20, WJC U18, & the Ivan Hlinka (U18).

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08-07-2013, 08:12 PM
  #142
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If we would have picked Morin over Ristolainen I would have been pretty pissed.

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08-07-2013, 08:33 PM
  #143
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Dont even know how to look this up but I would bet the Flyers scouting payroll/# of scouts is probably up there towards the top of the league? Or would I be way off thinking that?
I don't see why that should influence anything. Typical league spending is not necessarily efficient. After all, the Flyers are also near the top of the league in paying goalies not to play for them. My inclination is that good scouting is drastically underpaid to begin with. Are any of these guys making more than Bruno Gervais?

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08-07-2013, 10:05 PM
  #144
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I'm curious about Pronger's silence though. He was fairly quiet, almost as if he's more of an intern learning about the front office as opposed to a scout putting in his own opinion as to the players we're looking to draft.
Quiet because Pronger is not a scout

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08-07-2013, 10:21 PM
  #145
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I remember leading up to the draft Monahan interviewed with Homer & it apparently went really well. I guess Homer took a shine to him judging by the disgust of him being at 13 or whatever it was.

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08-07-2013, 11:57 PM
  #146
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is this only online? or is it a CSN half hr or hour long show? never mind, i see "web series". oh well. I'll take what i can get. its cool that their doin this

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08-08-2013, 08:55 AM
  #147
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Seeing Pronger in the war room made me wonder what the restrictions are on him while he's on LTIR regarding involvement in administrative / scouting stuff. Could he, for instance, travel (as much as his health allows) as a scout, or be behind the Phantoms bench ina coaching role? It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he won't ever step back on the ice as an NHL player, and it's equally obvious that the team will LTIR him to make his salary available for the roster. Would the NHL FO or even another team raise a stink if he wasn't "actively rehabilitating" or whatever the official rules are for an LTIR situation?

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08-08-2013, 09:21 AM
  #148
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Seeing Pronger in the war room made me wonder what the restrictions are on him while he's on LTIR regarding involvement in administrative / scouting stuff. Could he, for instance, travel (as much as his health allows) as a scout, or be behind the Phantoms bench ina coaching role? It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he won't ever step back on the ice as an NHL player, and it's equally obvious that the team will LTIR him to make his salary available for the roster. Would the NHL FO or even another team raise a stink if he wasn't "actively rehabilitating" or whatever the official rules are for an LTIR situation?
I don't think it will be an issue. There have been other injured players who joined their teams behind the bench or work in the booth as assistant coaches. The league isn't going to complain. The PA isn't going to complain. I think as long as he says, which I believe to be true, that he wants to come back if his health allows, the situation will continue.

It would take a special exemption from the 35+ rules to allow the Flyers to buy him out in full and let him retire without a cap hit, and I don't see that happening.

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08-08-2013, 09:25 AM
  #149
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It's fine. What would the argument against him be? He's scouting? Nah, he's a player and we're simply asking his advice. He's scouting? Nah, he just enjoys WHL games. He's not actively rehabbing? He's working out as much as he can handle and has long term concussion symptoms that require less activity. Being involved is probably therapeutic. His apparent loss of peripheral vision is probably enough to keep him on LTIR for the duration of the contract.

I would need to hear a good argument.

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08-08-2013, 10:09 AM
  #150
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Nurse and Ristolainen were both selected ahead of Morin, so please stop framing this as expert scouts vs know-nothing posters. There were obviously other scouts and GMs who share these opinions. In reality, our scouts were the ones who deviated from the scouting consensus.

Following up on what DownieFaceSoftener said, I think they should hire more scouts. One league scout watching a player 10-15 times is not a huge repository of knowledge, and it seems like it could be improved by spending money on more scouts.
We'll have to see, five years from now, how our scouts did in relation to the scouts from other teams re: Morin, Ristolainen and Nurse.

Still, having scouts watch players live 10-15 times, speak to them, their coaches and families, and then crossreference the detailed CSB rankings, video libraries, and cross checking by the other scouts seems like enough to get a sense of a player. If you saw 60 games live, would you learn much more?

Just relying on the work the CSB scouts do for the league is not enough, which is why the wealthy teams have their own large scouting staffs - to try and get a leg up on their poorer competitors. The Flyers just added a Swedish scout, acc. to Meltzer., so it's not like they aren't trying to improve their coverage.

Every organization has to determine the cost-benefit ratio of its investment in the scouting department and what it constributes via the NHL's CSB.

Given the success of our scouting staff, especially in recent years, it's pretty hard to argue that having 5 more full-time scouts or 10 more part-time scouts will make that much difference.

Scouting is very labour/cost intensive. Five scouts is another million bucks anyway, between salaries and expenses for travel (planes/mileage/car rentals), accommodations, per diems, etc.

Some teams were just using CSB at some point, and I remember reading that others (Buffalo?) were going all video, not even paying to have someone watch the players live.

There is a big article/book of analysis there for someone to cross reference drafting success with size of scouting dept/scouting methods and number of live views/interactions vs. video/CSB to determine the cost per acquired NHL player five years from draft day.

If you spend $2 or 5 or 10 million on your scouting program every year, does the increasing investment pay off if you only get, as most teams do, one or two NHL players out of a given draft (and then mostly in the 1st or 2nd rounds)?

Should the NHL go the NBA route and have just two rounds of drafts, and everyone else is a FA, or would that give even more advantage to rich teams with scouting staffs?


Last edited by Larry44: 08-08-2013 at 11:19 AM.
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