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08-15-2013, 12:31 PM
  #101
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I don't have a problem taking the guy. I have a problem taking him so early. General consensus is he would've been around later on.

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08-15-2013, 01:14 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I don't have a problem taking the guy. I have a problem taking him so early. General consensus is he would've been around later on.
The general consensus of whom? HFBoards posters? Hockey bloggers? Not the Flyers, that's for sure.

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08-15-2013, 01:23 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
The general consensus of whom? HFBoards posters? Hockey bloggers? Not the Flyers, that's for sure.
It was rather telling that Goulbourne himself wasn't at the draft and was reportedly pleasantly surprised (to put it mildly) that he was selected so early.

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08-15-2013, 01:37 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by BernieParent View Post
It was rather telling that Goulbourne himself wasn't at the draft and was reportedly pleasantly surprised (to put it mildly) that he was selected so early.
But on the flip side of that, isn't also telling that the Flyers took him? I have said this before and people ignore it, but do you honestly think that Flyers were sitting there talking about who to draft, and Ghoul's name came up they looked around the room and said, "we know there are better guys out there now, and we know that he will be there later, but let's take him anyway!" There is a reason they drafted him. I don't specifically know what that reason is, but I would trust them, given their success in the draft. You don't have to like the pick (I don't really like it), but are you really mad that they picked him over another guy you never heard of?

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08-15-2013, 01:45 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
But on the flip side of that, isn't also telling that the Flyers took him? I have said this before and people ignore it, but do you honestly think that Flyers were sitting there talking about who to draft, and Ghoul's name came up they looked around the room and said, "we know there are better guys out there now, and we know that he will be there later, but let's take him anyway!" There is a reason they drafted him. I don't specifically know what that reason is, but I would trust them, given their success in the draft. You don't have to like the pick (I don't really like it), but are you really mad that they picked him over another guy you never heard of?
Agreed.

Sadly, people are going to be hating on the Goulbourne pick for a while. By the time we see how many players from Rd. 3 of the 2013 draft play 100 games in the NHL, no one will care anymore.

I'm just looking forward to having both a Ghost and a Ghoul on the team.

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08-15-2013, 02:14 PM
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
But on the flip side of that, isn't also telling that the Flyers took him? I have said this before and people ignore it, but do you honestly think that Flyers were sitting there talking about who to draft, and Ghoul's name came up they looked around the room and said, "we know there are better guys out there now, and we know that he will be there later, but let's take him anyway!" There is a reason they drafted him. I don't specifically know what that reason is, but I would trust them, given their success in the draft. You don't have to like the pick (I don't really like it), but are you really mad that they picked him over another guy you never heard of?
Yeah, if it's a more talented guy. We've done this before with Klotz.

How has that gone? Here are some guys still on the board when Klotz was picked: Yannick Weber, Linus Omark, Matt Frattin, Dwight King, Jamie Benn, and those are just the guys who've played with the NHL. That doesn't go into guys who clearly had more potential than Klotz.

It's the same situation with Goul. There was better potential talent on the board that was surely much less of a reach than him. The Flyers ignored it so Homer could have his goon. It's said that GMs have a tendency to favor players who mirror themselves, and I think Homer definitely falls into that trap. Yay, great. I'd rather have them trade down and get another pick in a later round than waste a 3rd rounder on a guy like this.

It's another example of questionable asset management. By all accounts, even ****ing Goul's, he would have been around later and might not have been drafted at all. There's a reason the people who are paid money for their knowledge of prospects all had him ranked so low. And believe it or not, Homer CAN make mistakes. This is a situation where he maximized his chances of picking a bust fairly early instead of going with a "safer" pick.

Edit: In short, it's a symptom of a larger problem.


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Old
08-15-2013, 06:49 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Yeah, if it's a more talented guy. We've done this before with Klotz.
This is the heart of the matter. The Flyers repeatedly waste picks like this.... combine that with the trading away of 2nd rounders.... hard to build organizational depth.

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08-16-2013, 03:57 AM
  #108
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Yeah, it's just dumb to do in the cap era, where the draft and prospect depth are incredibly important. Homer and the Flyers seem to be just figuring this out now, 7 years later.

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08-16-2013, 12:03 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Yeah, if it's a more talented guy. We've done this before with Klotz.

How has that gone? Here are some guys still on the board when Klotz was picked: Yannick Weber, Linus Omark, Matt Frattin, Dwight King, Jamie Benn, and those are just the guys who've played with the NHL. That doesn't go into guys who clearly had more potential than Klotz.
We're not talking about Klotz. I don't remember the exact parameters of the Klotz situation (nor did I ever said I did). In this situation we have a bunch of people whining because the Flyers took a guy that they think isn't good (not because they have seen him or the other guys available, but because someone else said so). Flyers thought he was worth a pick. Others didn't. But the Flyers are wrong because you don't like the pick. Their scouts aren't as good as other's scouts (unless you like the pick). Their management isn't as good as the other team's out there that weren't going to pick him (unless you like the pick). You aren't basing it on anything other than someone else told you something different.

I get you don't like the pick, like I said, I don't either. But I am not going to call it a "bad" pick or complain about it because I know very little about him and the other options out there. I know people on here think they know a lot, but I would wager that of the players around Ghoul's selection (and Ghoul himself), very few people have seen or read much about these guys. But because someone who writes for TSN doesn't like it, it's wrong. Flyers don't get any deference. They are wrong because someone else says so.

Quote:
It's the same situation with Goul. There was better potential talent on the board that was surely much less of a reach than him. The Flyers ignored it so Homer could have his goon. It's said that GMs have a tendency to favor players who mirror themselves, and I think Homer definitely falls into that trap. Yay, great. I'd rather have them trade down and get another pick in a later round than waste a 3rd rounder on a guy like this.

It's another example of questionable asset management. By all accounts, even ****ing Goul's, he would have been around later and might not have been drafted at all. There's a reason the people who are paid money for their knowledge of prospects all had him ranked so low. And believe it or not, Homer CAN make mistakes. This is a situation where he maximized his chances of picking a bust fairly early instead of going with a "safer" pick.

Edit: In short, it's a symptom of a larger problem.
Again, the Flyers say otherwise (they liked him and they had information that at least one other team was going to take him). Answer this question (because no one ever does):

What do you think happened? Do you think the Flyers brass all agreed he wasn't good and would be available later but drafted him anyway? And then they just made up the story about how much they liked him and how they heard other teams were interested?

Again, I understand you don't like the pick, but why do the Flyers scouts and management get no deference? Why are sportswriters given the benefit of the doubt, but the Flyers scouts and management not? Why is a guy you have seen very little of not worth the pick of another guy you have seen very little of? Because Bill Meltzer says so? Because six years ago they made a bad pick in the third round?

Gimme a break. You don't like the pick. Fine. Get over it. Call it bad asset management in three years when he is out of hockey. Don't call it bad asset management two months after the draft.

EDIT: Also, I think someone posted on here or I read somewhere else that the Flyers have the best record of drafting guys (in terms of NHL games played) I think since the original lockout. But again, don't give the most successful drafting team any deference because Craig Button says Ghoul would have been available later.

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08-16-2013, 12:20 PM
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
We're not talking about Klotz. I don't remember the exact parameters of the Klotz situation (nor did I ever said I did). In this situation we have a bunch of people whining because the Flyers took a guy that they think isn't good (not because they have seen him or the other guys available, but because someone else said so). Flyers thought he was worth a pick. Others didn't. But the Flyers are wrong because you don't like the pick. Their scouts aren't as good as other's scouts (unless you like the pick). Their management isn't as good as the other team's out there that weren't going to pick him (unless you like the pick). You aren't basing it on anything other than someone else told you something different.

I get you don't like the pick, like I said, I don't either. But I am not going to call it a "bad" pick or complain about it because I know very little about him and the other options out there. I know people on here think they know a lot, but I would wager that of the players around Ghoul's selection (and Ghoul himself), very few people have seen or read much about these guys. But because someone who writes for TSN doesn't like it, it's wrong. Flyers don't get any deference. They are wrong because someone else says so.

----

Again, I understand you don't like the pick, but why do the Flyers scouts and management get no deference? Why are sportswriters given the benefit of the doubt, but the Flyers scouts and management not? Why is a guy you have seen very little of not worth the pick of another guy you have seen very little of? Because Bill Meltzer says so? Because six years ago they made a bad pick in the third round?

Gimme a break. You don't like the pick. Fine. Get over it. Call it bad asset management in three years when he is out of hockey. Don't call it bad asset management two months after the draft.

EDIT: Also, I think someone posted on here or I read somewhere else that the Flyers have the best record of drafting guys (in terms of NHL games played) I think since the original lockout. But again, don't give the most successful drafting team any deference because Craig Button says Ghoul would have been available later.
New here?

None of the good things Homer does carry any weight, but any errors are magnified ten-fold.

There is no statutory limitation on whining on HF Boards.

We will be hearing about the Blood Klotz pick until the end of time - it was a tragedy of epic proportions.

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08-16-2013, 01:52 PM
  #111
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At the end of the day, what I want and expect as a fan is that the organization will be run as efficiently as possible. Using 3rd rounders on players who will almost certainly be available later is inefficient and entirely easy to avoid.

As I said, it's a symptom of a larger problem with how the organization views draft picks in the cap era. It's troubling.

Reaching for a goon in the 3rd round when there is still NHL level talent that can be found is just a terrible use of a draft pick and reflects on Homer's bad asset management.

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08-16-2013, 02:03 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
At the end of the day, what I want and expect as a fan is that the organization will be run as efficiently as possible. Using 3rd rounders on players who will almost certainly be available later is inefficient and entirely easy to avoid.

As I said, it's a symptom of a larger problem with how the organization views draft picks in the cap era. It's troubling.

Reaching for a goon in the 3rd round when there is still NHL level talent that can be found is just a terrible use of a draft pick and reflects on Homer's bad asset management.
But this is exactly what I am talking about. The information the Flyers had was that he wouldn't be there. Why is your information, from outside sources, more credible than their information, from first hand sources?

You say he would "almost certainly" be available and that there is NHL level talent around (which I assume means you think Ghoul is not)? The Flyers thought otherwise based on their scouting of the players and based on the information they had related to other teams' interest in Ghoulbourne. But your position is that your information...from internet bloggers and what I am sure is at least several minutes of evaluation of Ghoul and the other hundreds of players still available...is more credible and you know which guys are NHL talent better than the Flyers scouts (as do the bloggers, despite the Flyers being one of the better drafting teams of the last decade) and you have better insight as to which teams were and were not interested in him at different points in the draft. I just don't understand this logic.

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08-16-2013, 02:07 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
But this is exactly what I am talking about. The information the Flyers had was that he wouldn't be there. Why is your information, from outside sources, more credible than their information, from first hand sources?

You say he would "almost certainly" be available and that there is NHL level talent around (which I assume means you think Ghoul is not)? The Flyers thought otherwise based on their scouting of the players and based on the information they had related to other teams' interest in Ghoulbourne. But your position is that your information...from internet bloggers and what I am sure is at least several minutes of evaluation of Ghoul and the other hundreds of players still available...is more credible and you know which guys are NHL talent better than the Flyers scouts (as do the bloggers, despite the Flyers being one of the better drafting teams of the last decade) and you have better insight as to which teams were and were not interested in him at different points in the draft. I just don't understand this logic.
If everyone was so high on him, why was he ranked so low by people paid to do such things?

He was generally either unranked, or ranked 171st. They Flyers took him a solid 3 rounds ahead of projections.

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08-16-2013, 02:12 PM
  #114
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This is the bass ackward thinking the Flyers shouldn't have. When you buy a Powerball ticket, you don't say "I hope I get the Powerball right and get my money back". Go for the homerun. If it doesn't work out, so be it. But if you get that one homerun pick, it could put the franchise ahead years. But to draft a guy who projects to be a 4th line energy guy is head scratching. You can sign those guy as UFAs for league minimum.
I agree that 4th liner ceiling guys should be ignored till maybe the 6th round or so, but I wonder if the Flyers thinking was that they would rather have a guy with a 85% chance of playing in the NHL versus a guy with a 2% chance. I suppose we would be mad no matter what. Too many Peter Placek picks and we would all be saying they are pissing away picks instead of guys who might actually wear orange and black someday. When we can get guys like Hall off of waivers, Powe via undrafted free agency, and Jody Hull and Blair Betts off of tryout contracts, it does beg the question of why waste a 3rd rounder.

I guess they are saying that they have $5 and would rather put it in the bank and get .0002% interest than risk losing all $5 at Powerball.

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08-16-2013, 02:19 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
We're not talking about Klotz. I don't remember the exact parameters of the Klotz situation (nor did I ever said I did). In this situation we have a bunch of people whining because the Flyers took a guy that they think isn't good (not because they have seen him or the other guys available, but because someone else said so). Flyers thought he was worth a pick. Others didn't. But the Flyers are wrong because you don't like the pick. Their scouts aren't as good as other's scouts (unless you like the pick). Their management isn't as good as the other team's out there that weren't going to pick him (unless you like the pick). You aren't basing it on anything other than someone else told you something different.
Well when that someone was Paul Holmgren himself, I think it should recieve a bit of weight. Of all the comparison he could have made, Zac Rinaldo 2.0? That's what the Flyers think of the guy. Why should anyone elses opinion be higher?

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08-16-2013, 02:35 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
EDIT: Also, I think someone posted on here or I read somewhere else that the Flyers have the best record of drafting guys (in terms of NHL games played) I think since the original lockout. But again, don't give the most successful drafting team any deference because Craig Button says Ghoul would have been available later.
Useless study. Why? Because it uses NHL games played.

By that study, Dallas is a better drafting team for taking Matt Niskanen 410 GP with the 28th pick than Pittsburgh for taking Kris Letang 385 GP with the 62nd.

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08-16-2013, 02:53 PM
  #117
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That stuff averages out over many years and dozens of picks.

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08-16-2013, 03:28 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by BernieParent View Post
It was rather telling that Goulbourne himself wasn't at the draft and was reportedly pleasantly surprised (to put it mildly) that he was selected so early.
thats says it all

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08-16-2013, 03:52 PM
  #119
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
If everyone was so high on him, why was he ranked so low by people paid to do such things?

He was generally either unranked, or ranked 171st. They Flyers took him a solid 3 rounds ahead of projections.
I didn't say everyone was so high on him. I said the Flyers were. This is my whole point. "Everyone" is a bunch of hockey bloggers. The Flyers, didn't agree with their rankings and the Flyers have stated that they had information that he was going to be taken before round five. Once again you aren't answering my question I have posed several times: What do you think went into the Flyers picking Ghoulbourne? Do you think they knew he would be available and he wasn't as good as other players but took him anyway? Is that really what you think happened...that they purposely took a guy that sucks and would have been available later? Or maybe do you think they liked him more than the internet did and they had information that the internet didn't have regarding other team's interest in him? Nah, that would be crazy because Bill Meltzer didn't tweet it.

You are saying the Flyers made a bad pick and this is another example of "poor asset management" because other people didn't have him that high. The Flyers did. You don't have to like the pick, but you can't call it bad asset management two months after the draft because he wasn't on Craig Button's list and you think someone else you saw a YouTube clip of one time is better in your mind.

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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Well when that someone was Paul Holmgren himself, I think it should recieve a bit of weight. Of all the comparison he could have made, Zac Rinaldo 2.0? That's what the Flyers think of the guy. Why should anyone elses opinion be higher?
I'm not saying the kid is going to be a superstar, I just find it strange that people are complaining about a pick of a guy they know very little about when there were other players they also knew very little about because the internet didn't have him ranked that high. It's silly. The Flyers think he will be ZR 2.0, and that's great. That doesn't mean that they thought he should have been picked in the 6th round or wherever Rinaldo was taken.

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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Useless study. Why? Because it uses NHL games played.

By that study, Dallas is a better drafting team for taking Matt Niskanen 410 GP with the 28th pick than Pittsburgh for taking Kris Letang 385 GP with the 62nd.
I think the study was based on big picture drafting, not just comparing two players. I would say that number of NHL games of all your draft picks is a pretty good indicator of a good drafting team. If you don't like this measure, what would yours be? Guys drafted from HFBoards list?

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08-16-2013, 03:58 PM
  #120
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You don't know what the Flyers heard, or if we can even trust it. They aren't going to say "Yeah, this guy sucks but we wanted to get the best goon available early on." They're going to do whatever they can to justify that pick and pump their asset. As you know I put little stock into anything the organization says, because they're always going to try to make themselves look good. They're a biased source.

By the way, it isn't just a "bunch of bloggers" who had him ranked so low. They got that info from International Scouting Services. They had him at 171, and apparently they were the only guide to rank him. The others left him out entirely. So it's not like some internet armchair GM decreed him a bust because they'd never seen a highlight reel of him. Actual scouting services didn't think he was 3rd round material.

The Flyers have a tendency to overvalue goons. They've done it for ages.

Instead of taking a chance on getting a Jamie Benn, the Flyers aimed for someone with Rinaldo upside. That's just flat-out dumb. You don't do that in the 3rd round. 4th? whatever. 3rd? No. There's still NHL talent to be had there.

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08-16-2013, 04:03 PM
  #121
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
You don't know what the Flyers heard, or if we can even trust it. They aren't going to say "Yeah, this guy sucks but we wanted to get the best goon available early on." They're going to do whatever they can to justify that pick.
So if that is what you are saying, please answer the question I have posed several times on this page. What do you think happened when they were drafting? Do you really think that they thought he would be there later and that there were better players available, but they picked this guy anyway? Because if that is what happened, then I agree, that is terrible asset management and all should be fired.

But surely you aren't saying that a room full of Flyers scouts and management didn't think a player was worth a pick, but picked him anyway? Is that what you are saying?

Homer: There are plenty of guys available right now that have a real shot at the NHL who won't be here at our next pick. But this Ghoul guy really intrigues me. I know he isn't very good, and I know he will be available, but let's pick him!

Scout: That makes sense. I agree he isn't good and can be signed after the draft, but let's take him now because we are stupid.

Homer: Yup, let's do it.

Is that about how it plays out in your head? Or do you maybe think that they liked him more than other players and had information that said he wouldn't be there later? Nah, that would be crazy. I'm a Homer-loving sheep and he is too stupid to do that!

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08-16-2013, 04:05 PM
  #122
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So if that is what you are saying, please answer the question I have posed several times on this page. What do you think happened when they were drafting? Do you really think that they thought he would be there later and that there were better players available, but they picked this guy anyway? Because if that is what happened, then I agree, that is terrible asset management and all should be fired.

But surely you aren't saying that a room full of Flyers scouts and management didn't think a player was worth a pick, but picked him anyway? Is that what you are saying?

Homer: There are plenty of guys available right now that have a real shot at the NHL who won't be here at our next pick. But this Ghoul guy really intrigues me. I know he isn't very good, and I know he will be available, but let's pick him!

Scout: That makes sense. I agree he isn't good and can be signed after the draft, but let's take him now because we are stupid.

Homer: Yup, let's do it.

Is that about how it plays out in your head? Or do you maybe think that they liked him more than other players and had information that said he wouldn't be there later? Nah, that would be crazy. I'm a Homer-loving sheep and he is too stupid to do that!
I've already answered your question a few times. I think they usual thing happened: they saw a goon and they overvalued him, like they have for years and years. They made a mistake. It's that simple.

That's the problem...not that they determined he sucked and drafted him anyways; I don't know where you're getting that garbage. The problem is that, by all sources available to us, from the pre-draft guides put together by professional scouts to Goul himself, there was no good reason to take him in the 3rd round. As I've said, it's indicative of a flawed mindset.

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08-16-2013, 04:10 PM
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Beef Invictus
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Oh, and since they compare him to Rinaldo...let's see where Rinaldo was drafted: 178th. So...they see a guy with his upside and instead of waiting until the 5th or 6th round, they take him immediately. They choked.

Hell, eyeballing their stats it looks like Goul even produces at about the same rate Rinaldo did. So it's not like he's even a great improvement on him.

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08-16-2013, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
Oh, and since they compare him to Rinaldo...let's see where Rinaldo was drafted: 178th. So...they see a guy with his upside and instead of waiting until the 5th or 6th round, they take him immediately. They choked.

Hell, eyeballing their stats it looks like Goul even produces at about the same rate Rinaldo did. So it's not like he's even a great improvement on him.
Taking Ghoul in the 5th or 6th round was apparently not an option.

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08-16-2013, 04:17 PM
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Then wait until the 4th round, where there is minimal NHL talent.

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