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Most useless or inaccurate stat in hockey?

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:07 PM
  #51
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any stat that i don't understand is useless

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:07 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Blooded View Post
Then I'd like to move on to goalies. Most dismiss GAA as a useless stat as it is more team based than anything, and I agree. But raw Sv% is basically seen as gospel around these parts and I find that the stat can be misleading. No goalie can be expected to put up the same Sv% a man down as he does 5v5, so a goalie that plays for a heavily penalized team will see his raw Sv% suffer. An adjusted Sv% that weighs out situational use should therefore be preferred.
Short handed save percentage has been shown to be wildly variable year to year.

Take Lundqvist for example.

Over the last 6 years he's had ES (5v5) save percentages ranging from 92.21% to 93.61% The other 4 are 92.65%, 92.91%, 93.10% and 93.26%. Very little year to year variance.

However shorthanded (5v4) his save percentage has been far more variable. His low is 85.12% and his high is 92.07%. The other 4 are 87.87%, 88.26%, 88.44%, and 90.84%.

Heck, his worst shorthanded season was this last one which was his best even strength season and his best shorthanded season was 08-09 which was his worst even strength season.

And Lunqvist is far from unique with those variances.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:07 PM
  #53
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all time team vs team win loss records. why would the outcome of matchups from two teams over decades past have any bearing the current matchups

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08-23-2013, 06:10 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parker MacDonald View Post
Hits.
This.

Because I both agree with you and like anagrams.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:11 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GuineaPig View Post
Scorer bias. Go to NHL.com and separate the real-time stats in to "home" and "away" and see which arenas have people who are bad at their jobs.

EDIT: For example, the ACC scorers counted the Leafs giving up the puck 405 times in 24 games during the 2013 season. In all other arenas they were counted as giving the puck away 149 times.

So either the Leafs really like to give the puck away at home (to the tune of 270% more), or else the stats guys there are a little liberal with what counts as a give-away.
You would have to then define those stats. As in, what constitutes a giveaway, takeaway, hit, etc. But just because they are defined differently doesn't make them inaccurate.

Where did you get that stat? Is that giveaways or something else?

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08-23-2013, 06:15 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
There's nothing lucky about players like Toews and Crosby having a great +/- The stat should be taken at face value. How often are goals scored vs. goals scored against while you're on the ice. Nobody considers it the most useful measurement of a player ever. I've never heard anybody claim that. I see plenty of people dismiss it entirely though because maybe their poor defensive big point producer doesnt get reflected well by it.

Speaking of which, points are overrated. If a player scores 5 more points he's instantly seen as a better contributer to winning than a guy who plays a much better two way game. Defense is just as important as offense. "It's the defensemans job to play defense" is so 1980s.
Definitely agree on the +/- stat. You will have anomalies with it, as you will with any stat (is 56 goals truly reflective of the type of player Jonathan Cheechoo was over his career?), but I think it can be more useful than people give it credit for. It's a poor indicator of direct comparisons of players from different teams, but the same could be said of many stats. At least it is an objective statistic, which makes it more credible than something like Hits, which seems to have a pretty wide range for interpretation.

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08-23-2013, 06:16 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by overlords View Post
Corsi is a tool like any other stat. The problem is with the handyman.
To clarify, I'm not a fan of people relying on stats to prove a point period. I just prefer to watch the game and make an assessment from that. Someone could have a game where they have no points and were a -2, but they could've been generating chances all game. Conversely, someone could score twice in a game, and you might think "well he must be having a good game", but he could've been invisible all game and had a couple pucks bounce off him and go in. I'm not saying stats are meaningless, but it seems these days looking up random stats to form an opinion about a player/team/etc is more common than sitting down and watching the game.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:23 PM
  #58
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Hits and blocked shots.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:24 PM
  #59
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id say shots is pretty useless because of the quality

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:24 PM
  #60
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In after +/-.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:25 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
All statistics are flawed, and all statistics require context and proper skill to use correctly.

When someone says that "statistic X is beyond useless", what that typically means is that they have learned to see the flaws in statistic X, but have not yet learned to see the flaws in statistic Y (which they prefer).
On other hand, I change my vote to this.

And @ Corsi being useless.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:27 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seth Rollins View Post
To clarify, I'm not a fan of people relying on stats to prove a point period. I just prefer to watch the game and make an assessment from that. Someone could have a game where they have no points and were a -2, but they could've been generating chances all game. Conversely, someone could score twice in a game, and you might think "well he must be having a good game", but he could've been invisible all game and had a couple pucks bounce off him and go in. I'm not saying stats are meaningless, but it seems these days looking up random stats to form an opinion about a player/team/etc is more common than sitting down and watching the game.
Of course it's more common. Now people don't need to actually watch anything, they can just look at numbers online and act like they know exactly what's going on.

I am with you though. Always makes me laugh when I see people throwing out stats from behindthenet and all that.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:30 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Raym11 View Post
id say shots is pretty useless because of the quality
This I think I can agree with this for the most part. Shots have very little use.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:32 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueDream View Post
Of course it's more common. Now people don't need to actually watch anything, they can just look at numbers online and act like they know exactly what's going on.

I am with you though. Always makes me laugh when I see people throwing out stats from behindthenet and all that.
It can be just as bad when referring to the eye test because often, fans of the team are biased.

Of course advanced stats can be flawed too, there is no perfect stat out there. And I much prefer looking at the advanced stats than the basic eye test. The eye test had Flyers fans insulting my intelligence last year by telling me how great Grossman was great defensively because 'they watched most games'.


Last edited by Kershaw: 08-23-2013 at 06:38 PM. Reason: how do i miss schenn with grossman?
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Old
08-23-2013, 06:33 PM
  #65
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"Watch the games" is so subjective. Bias effects what you take from watching the game and nobody has time to watch every game of every team.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:51 PM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Blooded View Post
Taco has some interesting goalie statistics that I think should be put more front and centre on this site. Maybe a stickied goalie thread that is updated at regular intervals?
Thanks - I appreciate it! The main problem is that, as an administrator of the site, I can't show favoritism to my own stuff - I generally post links where I think they'll add to the discussion.

I agree about unvarnished save percentage - one of the things I prefer to do is take ESSV, SHSV, and PPSV, and weight them together by the percentage of shots seen by a typical league goaltender (and then I'll further normalize to the league average if comparing across seasons). I don't do this on my site (yet) since my "thing" these days is projecting future performance, and it's well-nigh impossible to get these numbers for (1) the days of yore and (2) junior and minor leagues.

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:52 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seth Rollins View Post
To clarify, I'm not a fan of people relying on stats to prove a point period. I just prefer to watch the game and make an assessment from that. Someone could have a game where they have no points and were a -2, but they could've been generating chances all game. Conversely, someone could score twice in a game, and you might think "well he must be having a good game", but he could've been invisible all game and had a couple pucks bounce off him and go in. I'm not saying stats are meaningless, but it seems these days looking up random stats to form an opinion about a player/team/etc is more common than sitting down and watching the game.
You might be surprised to find this out, but watching the game presents similar bias challenges that statistics do. It's not infallible (the best way to examine hockey is through a combination of scouting and statistics).

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:54 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Fedorov View Post
all time team vs team win loss records. why would the outcome of matchups from two teams over decades past have any bearing the current matchups
this

player's point totals vs specific teams are pretty useless as well as a team can be completely different a few years later

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:56 PM
  #69
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Corsi for me

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Old
08-23-2013, 06:58 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Xavier Ouellet View Post
My vote goes for Attendance stats.

It gets ranked on how high your yearly attendance average is, when it should be a percentage based stat. A team like Winnipeg who has a smaller arena will always be in the bottom half even if they sell out. Which makes no sense to me.

Or the Canucks who have been selling out their arena since 2003 is 10th in the league. Makes zero sense.
Because the Blackhawks selling out the season with 21,000 seats is an equivalent feat to Winnpeg and their 15,000? That's an utterly ridiculous contention.

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Old
08-23-2013, 07:02 PM
  #71
Blue Blooded
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hatterson View Post
Short handed save percentage has been shown to be wildly variable year to year.

Take Lundqvist for example.

Over the last 6 years he's had ES (5v5) save percentages ranging from 92.21% to 93.61% The other 4 are 92.65%, 92.91%, 93.10% and 93.26%. Very little year to year variance.

However shorthanded (5v4) his save percentage has been far more variable. His low is 85.12% and his high is 92.07%. The other 4 are 87.87%, 88.26%, 88.44%, and 90.84%.

Heck, his worst shorthanded season was this last one which was his best even strength season and his best shorthanded season was 08-09 which was his worst even strength season.

And Lunqvist is far from unique with those variances.
That is hardly surprising considering you face a lot less 4v5 shots over a season than 5v5 shots, higher variance from a smaller sample.

Taco's metrics are more advanced, but last year I did some experimentation with adjusted Sv%. I found out that the only two situations that provided enough shots to be remotely usable was 5v5 and 4v5. Then you just have to extrapolate the goalies' Sv% in the two situations to league average SA in the respective situations to get a fair picture.

I did such an analysis on the 2011-12 season and there were some differences. These are the top 10 goalies with 50+ starts, their raw Sv% and position is presented in parenthesis.

1. Mike Smith 93.1% (93.0%, 1st)
2. Jonathan Quick 92.9% (92.9%, 3rd)
3. Henrik Lundqvist 92.9% (93.0%, 2nd)
4. Jimmy Howard 92.3% (92.0%, 7th)
5. Kari Lehtonen 92.2% (92.2%, 5th)
6. Pekka Rinne 92.2% (92.3%, 4th)
7. Miikka Kiprusoff 92.1% (92.1%, 6th)
8. Roberto Luongo 92.0% (91.9%, 9th)
9. Tim Thomas 91.9% (92.0 %, 8th)
10. Josť Theodore 91.7% (91.7%, 10th)

These aren't huge differences, but if this was the prevalent metric over raw Sv% Mike Smith might have won the 2011-12 Vezina Trophy.

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Old
08-23-2013, 07:05 PM
  #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Thanks - I appreciate it! The main problem is that, as an administrator of the site, I can't show favoritism to my own stuff - I generally post links where I think they'll add to the discussion.

I agree about unvarnished save percentage - one of the things I prefer to do is take ESSV, SHSV, and PPSV, and weight them together by the percentage of shots seen by a typical league goaltender (and then I'll further normalize to the league average if comparing across seasons). I don't do this on my site (yet) since my "thing" these days is projecting future performance, and it's well-nigh impossible to get these numbers for (1) the days of yore and (2) junior and minor leagues.
PPSV% can distort the values hugely due to sample size, most teams don't allow many shots with the man advantage. One goalie might have a 97.1% where another has an 80%. Then if a goalie has an extreme percentage due to facing well below average shots in that situation, extrapolate that to league average and you may get a quite misrepresentative number.

I would therefore restrict myself to ESSV% and SHSV%.

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Old
08-23-2013, 07:13 PM
  #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Blooded View Post
PPSV% can distort the values hugely due to sample size, most teams don't allow many shots with the man advantage. One goalie might have a 97.1% where another has an 80%. Then if a goalie has an extreme percentage due to facing well below average shots in that situation, extrapolate that to league average and you may get a quite misrepresentative number.

I would therefore restrict myself to ESSV% and SHSV%.
You make a good point about the sample size concerns. On the other hand, because of the small sample size, you end up weighting it with a very small factor. I've tried it both ways, and I'm not sure which I prefer at this point (so either method is probably good ).

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Old
08-23-2013, 07:18 PM
  #74
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+/- and wins for goalies

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Old
08-23-2013, 07:20 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by drmagg View Post
Ponts
This. I've never understood the relevance of ponts.

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