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NYR Forward Chemistry 2012-13

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08-25-2013, 07:36 PM
  #1
Blue Blooded
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NYR Forward Chemistry 2012-13

Finding the HA’s With Or Without You (WOWY) charts fascinating, I thought maybe I could make some use of them to see which forwards found true chemistry last year.

I chose to define chemistry as both players were better together than they were apart. 150+ minutes are marked with CAPITAL letters, 50-150 minutes are marked with lower case letters. Inconclusive chemistry or too few minutes were left blank. The observed stats were goals for %, and Corsi for %.

Chart based on zone start adjusted data courtesy of hockeyanalysis.com



The chart does not account for magnitude of chemistry or one-sided improvement effects.

Conclusions:

Hagelin-Stepan-Nash was just a filthy line, and breaking them up didn’t really work.

We need at least 2 Carl Hagelins on this team – he showed incredible chemistry with three different players and improved almost every partners stats, but some of them pulled his down.

Brad Richards and Ryan Callahan were a trainwreck together. 40.8 CF% and 16.7 GF%!!! Callahan-Nash wasn't as bad, or even that bad (58.3 GF%, 50.2 CF%), but they were both better off without each other in both aspects.

Ryan Callahan didn’t seem to mesh well with skilled players and played better with grinders.

Pyatt worked surprisingly well with a few players, but were downright awful with others. Small sample size or a player who needs specific deployments? Seems to mesh well with skilled guys, maybe he can still be a 3rd line option?

Kreider and Miller actually played fantastic together, but abysmally apart. Small sample size or is there really something there?

Zuccarello played way too few minutes to make an impact on the chart, but he seemed to be abe to play with anyone. When he and Brad Richards were on the ice together for 130 minutes the Rangers scored 90.9% of the goals, staggering figure.

Additional thoughts?


Last edited by Blue Blooded: 08-26-2013 at 06:15 AM.
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08-25-2013, 08:02 PM
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Interesting study...

How did you come up with this again?

Cally with other grinders sounds like a good conclusion. I feel like when hes on a top skill line its too forced for him, but when he's with others who play a grinding game its almost like hes trying to impress them because he knows hes better then them. We all know that on a really good team he should slot in on a powerful 3rd line.

I think one of the reasons Hagelin played so well with everyone is because of the system Torts was using. He was a catalyst, in all situations and since he had so much speed on the forecheck it probably effected the chemistry of the offense more than others.

I feel like throwing Nash's first (half) season down the drain, but I wont. Stepan and him definitely built some chemistry and they shouldn't be split apart.

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08-25-2013, 08:24 PM
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Cally needs extended offensive zone time to be able to do his thing effectively. With how little extended zone time we got in the last two season and without good puck cycling and possession guys, even including guys like Prust, Mitchell, Dubie etc., and without the D being more aggressive in keeping the play alive and flowing, Cally isn't going to be able to do much in the offensive zone most of the time other than momentary possession and puck retrieval.

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08-25-2013, 08:37 PM
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I have no idea how to understand that chart at all.

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08-25-2013, 09:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Blob View Post
I have no idea how to understand that chart at all.
That makes two of us.

Regardless, good work!

I do agree that Callahan does his best when he's with grinders.

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08-25-2013, 09:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Blob View Post
I have no idea how to understand that chart at all.
green is good red is bad

isnt that all you really need to understand it


Last edited by Dactyl: 08-25-2013 at 11:01 PM.
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08-25-2013, 10:03 PM
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I'm worried. We are obviously gonna have a different style this year, and I'm worried our D might suffer because of it. We were always in the top ten in defense with Torts. I just hope we keep that philosophy of Playing off our D.

I think Cally and Hags, will have a tough time under a different style other than dump n chase. Also Kreider. I'll bet the coaches won't make many changes in our style. It has been somewhat successful for us.

With more set plays and break ins into the offensive zone the more chemistry will be created. We had no clue once we were in the zone under torts.

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08-25-2013, 10:18 PM
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08-25-2013, 10:34 PM
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Pyatt-Boyle-Callahan would bring the ruckus.

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08-25-2013, 10:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Blob View Post
I have no idea how to understand that chart at all.
Something about hockey.

Green good, Red bad.

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08-25-2013, 11:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Green Blob View Post
I have no idea how to understand that chart at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bullseyes View Post
That makes two of us.

Regardless, good work!

I do agree that Callahan does his best when he's with grinders.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aufheben View Post
Something about hockey.

Green good, Red bad.
--- yes, green is good, red is bad.

--- "G" is goal differential. "C" is Corsi rating. im not getting into what THAT is right now. google.

--- obviously "+" is a positive differential in Corsi/goal diff and "-" is negative differential.

--- Capital letter means 150+ minutes playing together. 50-150 minutes is lower case. blank box means not enough data collected.

--- take a players name on the left axis of the chart. slide to the right into another players column (listed on top) to see how well they played together.

not trying to sound snobby with this post, but i had to stare at it a little to figure it out also. hope this helps!!!

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08-26-2013, 01:52 AM
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Not snobby at all, no shame in having something explained.

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08-26-2013, 01:56 AM
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For the team to be real contenders this year, they need to hit the jackpot with one or two of the young wingers. There are some pretty good distributors in our top 3 Cs - Richards, Step and Brass. But with Gabby gone, there isn't much guaranteed scoring on the wing outside of Nash and maybe Cally. Hags could get 15-20. Fantastic player, But hardly a goal scorer.

Two of Zuccs, Kreider, Kristo, Fast or even Miller (or Hrivik?) need to become real, consistent scoring threats for the team to really take off. Otherwise, this is going to be yet another season where Hank is going to be asked to do too much.

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08-26-2013, 01:59 AM
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This chart proves what I've always said, that Zuccarello gets along with everyone.

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08-26-2013, 02:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gravey9 View Post
For the team to be real contenders this year, they need to hit the jackpot with one or two of the young wingers. There are some pretty good distributors in our top 3 Cs - Richards, Step and Brass. But with Gabby gone, there isn't much guaranteed scoring on the wing outside of Nash and maybe Cally. Hags could get 15-20. Fantastic player, But hardly a goal scorer.

Two of Zuccs, Kreider, Kristo, Fast or even Miller (or Hrivik?) need to become real, consistent scoring threats for the team to really take off. Otherwise, this is going to be yet another season where Hank is going to be asked to do too much.
Yep, Nash is essentially the only legit scoring threat during 5-on-5. We'll see. Richards, Brassard, and Zucc all need guys that can cash in on their passing.

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08-26-2013, 02:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aufheben View Post
Yep, Nash is essentially the only legit scoring threat during 5-on-5. We'll see. Richards, Brassard, and Zucc all need guys that can cash in on their passing.
I bet Gartner can skill skate...

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08-26-2013, 03:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gravey9 View Post
For the team to be real contenders this year, they need to hit the jackpot with one or two of the young wingers. There are some pretty good distributors in our top 3 Cs - Richards, Step and Brass. But with Gabby gone, there isn't much guaranteed scoring on the wing outside of Nash and maybe Cally. Hags could get 15-20. Fantastic player, But hardly a goal scorer.

Two of Zuccs, Kreider, Kristo, Fast or even Miller (or Hrivik?) need to become real, consistent scoring threats for the team to really take off. Otherwise, this is going to be yet another season where Hank is going to be asked to do too much.
no argument from me here, good point. Plenty of talent on this roster, we just need some finishers to step up. I feel very good about this year though.

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08-26-2013, 05:54 AM
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Blue Blooded
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Sorry for dumping the chart on you without proper explanation, but I had to go to bed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JCrusty View Post
Cally needs extended offensive zone time to be able to do his thing effectively. With how little extended zone time we got in the last two season and without good puck cycling and possession guys, even including guys like Prust, Mitchell, Dubie etc., and without the D being more aggressive in keeping the play alive and flowing, Cally isn't going to be able to do much in the offensive zone most of the time other than momentary possession and puck retrieval.
Not sure that I agree with the premise. 12-13 was the best possession season we had under Torts. Renney's Rangers were great at that though. And Callahan has never been a very good 5v5 scorer.

It is generally said a good top-6 player should average at least 1.8 P/60. Callahan has only been above 1.8 once in 2010-11 when he scored 1.984, and that was buoyed by some high shooting percentages. The closest he has come in other seasons is 1.719 in 2008-09 and 1.611 in 2012-13. In 2009-10 he scored 0.744 which is below 4th line level scoring.

We shouldn't expect Callahan to be a major offensive contributor 5v5 because he has never been that guy. He is good around the net on the PP, it is there he picks up his points. The same goes for Dustin Brown and David Backes. All these guys are fringe top-6 scorers 5v5, but they do their business on the PP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aufheben View Post
Yep, Nash is essentially the only legit scoring threat during 5-on-5. We'll see. Richards, Brassard, and Zucc all need guys that can cash in on their passing.
I disagree. Hagelin and Stepan have been scoring goals 5v5 at similar rates as Semin, Vanek, Zetterberg, D. Sedin, Moulson, Skinner, Bergeron over the past two seasons. Then we have Benoit Pouliot who has been significantly ahead of that group, but his contributions has come from depth roles and may not be reproducable in a top-6 role. Still he should provide a great scoring threat from the 3rd line.


Last edited by Blue Blooded: 08-26-2013 at 06:04 AM.
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08-26-2013, 06:02 AM
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Blue Blooded
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An example of how the chart works.

We have two players, A & B. Player A has a 55% rating away from B, Player B has a 50% rating away from A.

If the rating when they play together is 55%+ there is chemistry, if it is 50-55% there is nothing, if it is less than 50% there is negative chemistry.

The chart is binary to make it easier to understand, but that means it doesn't take magnitude of chemistry into consideration. For example- Callahan had negative chemistry with both Nash and Richards so they look just as bad on the chart. But where Nash and Cally only hurt each other a little bit, Brad and Cally were an unmitigated disaster.

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08-26-2013, 09:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Blooded View Post
It is generally said a good top-6 player should average at least 1.8 P/60.
Last season among forwards who played in at least 20 games

1.8 P/60 ranked the player 131st = Doan

1.65 P/60 ranked the player 160th = Callahan


5 on 5
Doan had ~725 minutes, 24 pts =.0331 pts per 5 on 5 minute

Callahan had ~708 minutes, 20 pts = .0282 pts per 5 on 5 minute


If they both played the average minutes between them = 716
Doan 23.69 pts
Callahan 20.19 pts

So Doan as a 23-24 point scorer 5 on 5 is a good top 6 forward but Callahan as a 20-21 point player is not?

Lets say its a full season 1200 minutes 5 on 5
Doan 39.72 pts
Callahan 33.84 pts

~6 points differential, does 6 even strength points over a full season really put one player in the "good" category while putting the other in the less than good over a full season?


Do not mean to say I do not like your chart, I think it's pretty cool, just don't know if the small range between the players in terms of points per 60 is really that big of a deal.


Last edited by Off Sides: 08-26-2013 at 09:28 AM.
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08-26-2013, 10:21 AM
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Blue Blooded
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Off Sides View Post
Last season among forwards who played in at least 20 games

1.8 P/60 ranked the player 131st = Doan

1.65 P/60 ranked the player 160th = Callahan


5 on 5
Doan had ~725 minutes, 24 pts =.0331 pts per 5 on 5 minute

Callahan had ~708 minutes, 20 pts = .0282 pts per 5 on 5 minute


If they both played the average minutes between them = 716
Doan 23.69 pts
Callahan 20.19 pts

So Doan as a 23-24 point scorer 5 on 5 is a good top 6 forward but Callahan as a 20-21 point player is not?

Lets say its a full season 1200 minutes 5 on 5
Doan 39.72 pts
Callahan 33.84 pts

~6 points differential, does 6 even strength points over a full season really put one player in the "good" category while putting the other in the less than good over a full season?


Do not mean to say I do not like your chart, I think it's pretty cool, just don't know if the small range between the players in terms of points per 60 is really that big of a deal.
That's why I said average 1.8 P/60, I can see how it may have been confusing but I meant over several seasons. Because the difference in a single season may not be that much but over a few seasons it grows. And 1.8 was the at least number, you want most of your top 6 above 2.0 P/60. ZS adjusted the Rangers had four players above 2.2 last year.

If we use zone start adjusted figures (which boost Callahan's numbers slightly) he has averaged 1.565 P/60 over the past five seasons. That span starts with his 08-09 season which was his 2nd best in regard to both points and TOI so it is hardly an unfair sample. 103 points in 3949 minutes.

Over the same span Michael Ryder has produced 2.154 P/60, 142 points in 3955 minutes. He also has a better +/- over the period so he hasn't been bleeding goals either.

Now Callahan has aspects to his game where he is far superior to Ryder, but in an offensive role 5v5 I know who I'd prefer.

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08-26-2013, 10:33 AM
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If there are 30 teams = 90 top line forwards, 180 top 6 forwards

20 or more games played.

2.0 P/60 or higher forwards league wide
12-13 = 88 Forwards
11-12 = 99 forwards
10-11 = 108 forwards

A player with a 2.0 P/60 is boarder line top line player, not top 6

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08-26-2013, 11:02 AM
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I guess we could be more specific. RW on behindthenet

30 teams = 30 top RWs, 60 top 6 RWs

Callahan in P/60 among RW, 20 or more games
Ranked league wide
12-13 #45 exactly average
11-12 #51 below average
10-11 #34 above average

Not that any of this really matters if we are talking about production over the course of a full season and if that makes them a good top 6 forward or not if we are splitting hairs over 6-8pts 5 on 5 over a full season being the determining factor.

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08-26-2013, 11:44 AM
  #24
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Zucc-Brass-Nash
Hags-Step-Cally


It's how I see the best break down for the top 2

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08-26-2013, 11:57 AM
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You have a balancing act to play because you don't want to be constantly shuffling lines and putting players in unfamiliar positions, but lines that spend too much time together engage in groupthink. They get comfortable doing the same things, become predictable, and don't have any new ideas.

This is one of the reasons I think guys like Kreider, Hagelin, and Miller had immediate impact coming in... they broke the groupthink and threw a wrench in the equasion such that the team started to play differently. Also, opposing teams didn't have them as well scouted.

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