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Would a great three months earn Dubnyk a spot on team Canada??

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08-29-2013, 07:08 PM
  #26
Koto
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i think any player can play their way on, but for most unknowns theyd have to be front runners for vezna/norris/scoring.

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08-29-2013, 07:20 PM
  #27
TheStroker
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If Dubnyk makes the Olympic team, I'll eat my shoe

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08-29-2013, 07:24 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Oiltankjob 4 93 64 View Post
I think Oilers are going to play very good as a team and Dubnyk will be a big goat costing us a few games we should of won by ill timed softies.
...so the complete opposite of last season?

You sure are giving Craig MacTavish a lot of credit.

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08-29-2013, 08:48 PM
  #29
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The guy needs to worry about keeping his job on the Oilers before he even should be in the mix for Team Canada.

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08-30-2013, 11:20 AM
  #30
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Yeah he can make it, look at who they invited to camp... Loungo, Price, Smith, Crawford, and Holtby (that's from the top of my head, I hope I got it right).

Other then maybe Loungo... no one is a superstar (and Loungo being a superstar is questionable). Craig Anderson has played his way into team USA talk with solid play and they have several elite goalies, Dubnyk definitely could here too.

Is Dubnyk really that far behind guys like Price, Smith, Crawford, Holtby, Brodeur, Fleury, or Ward?

Loungo is a near lock since he was the starter for half the tournament last time and is really the only goalie with Olympic experience... but who knows how he'll play after their "fun" this offseason in Vancouver

Price probably will make it, since he's been considered Canada's "goalie of the future" even if he hasn't shown much the past few years, but like someone said, it's an "old boys club" and they like to ride certain players for better or worse (that's why Nash and Staal are locks to the team IMO)

Smith didn't have a very good year last year, if Dubnyk plays better and Smith the same... Dubs could definitely pass him.

Crawford had a good run but it's not like he's a proven goalie, if Dubs outplays him then he could easily get the nod ahead of him.

Holtby, I think he's the only other realistic young goalie out there other then Price, I think he's mostly invited to get some experience... if Price falters and Holtby plays well then they may take Holtby over Price. But Dubnyk is just as good as Holtby and a good start by Dubs he'd leapfrog Holtby.

Brodeur, he hasn't looked as good the past few years and isn't an elite goalie anymore... I doubt they'd bring him along unless they think he's one of their top 2 guys which won't happen unless he has an amazing first half or maybe if Loungo gets injured or has a HORRIBLE first half, just for the experience factor (why bring Brodeur as your #3 and have Loungo as #1/#2, both won't be there in 2018, and I would assume they want to have 2 goalies with some Olympic experience, if you have only one and they pull a Fleury or get injured... you could then fly into an Olympics with zero Olympics experience in goal which could be a killer).

Fleury, people complain about weak goals and Dubnyk, lol at Fleury... and he's choked the last couple years for lack of a better term in the playoffs... not sure if hockey Canada would risk him at goalie. And again if Dubnyk outplays Fleury which is very likely, Dubs gets the nod.

Ward, he didn't get the invite to hockey Canada (just like Dubs), but he's struggled with injuries and consistency as of late, if Dubs outplays Ward then he easily goes over Ward.

I think right now the pecking order is
Loungo>>>>Price>>> Crawford> Smith > Holtby = Ward = Dubnyk = Fleury= Mason or even Emery= Reimer = Bernier > Brodeur
he's got some work to do and the odds are against him, but other then Loungo, I don't see a goalie there that's guaranteed to be ahead of Dubnyk if he has a great start to the year (top 5 goalie start not the unrealistic sub 2.00 GAA, 950 sv% start, but a 930 sv%, 2.30 GAA start could easily get him in unless several Canadian goalies were playing like that)

-It's not like he has to beat out an in their prime Roy/Brodeur combo or something (sad that the Americans #5 goalie (Quick, Anderson, Miller, Howard, Schneider) IMO Schnedier beat out our presumed #1 in Loungo for the starting job in Vancouver) could very well be Canada's starter, we are that weak)... Dubnyk's got a chance since there are likely 4-6 other countries who will be projected to have better goalie play then Canada at the Olympics
Russia Bobrovsky
Americans Quick, Anderson, Howard, Miller, Schneider
Finland Rask, Niemi, Rinne, Backstrom, Lehtonen
Sweden Lundqvist, Fasth
Slovak Halak,
Swiss Hiller

-Someone was mentioning Justin Schultz and maybe playing his way onto the team... I would say there's no chance of that because of his defensive liabilities (Dubnyk has 50x the chance that Schultz has). In 2010 they didn't take Mike Green, and he was the best offensive defenseman in the world at the time. This year, Letang and Subban may not go because of not being solid enough defensively. Now if the reigning Norris winner and a finalist several times (and their both arguably the second best offensive defenseman in the world after Karlsson) are on the roster bubble because of defensive issues, no way could Schultz play his way onto the team with only his offense. He'd have to have HUGE defensive strides if he wants a chance to make the team, and I don't think it's possible for him to make that big of a change by then (and to have Hockey Canada's brass take notice as well). And really Letang and Subban are both better defensively then Schultz is right now as well and may not go

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Old
08-30-2013, 11:48 AM
  #31
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One last thing... how many of you would put Niemi on your team if he was Canadian?
I guess a vast majority would

Before his play last season, there wasn't much difference in people's opinions between Niemi and Dubnyk.

Then in half a season, Niemi put up 2.16 GAA, .924 sv%, 24-12 on a 6th place team.

Now if Dubnyk puts up similar numbers and Oilers are sitting around 6th in the west (3rd in their division) after half a season... why wouldn't the majority of us consider putting him on our team?

-And if you want to say Niemi was thought of a lot higher then Dubnyk (Stanley Cup winner etc) which I wouldn't agree with but okay, then compare him to Bobrovsky... Dubnyk would have had more value at the beginning of last year then Bobrovsky.

Right now Bobrovsky for sure be considered on our team (likely our #1 goalie) after his play in half a season 2.00 GAA and .932 SV% on a non-playoff team.
If Dubnyk puts up those numbers then he should for sure be in and likely be the starter as well (he won't have to have as good numbers to be the #2 or #3 goalie)... he will not need the 1.50 GAA and .950 SV% that some of you are saying.

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08-30-2013, 12:17 PM
  #32
Perfect_Drug
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I think this Team Canada won't medal based on poor blue line and poor goalie.

Sending DD and JS there to
Get shelled then devoured by the canadian media for the next 4 years likely won't help their confidence.

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08-30-2013, 01:20 PM
  #33
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sorry no. Unless 12 other goalies get injured

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Old
08-30-2013, 01:36 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilinblood View Post
I do think Crawford is in the mix... I think Price will be in there... and Im actually not sold on Lou. I thought he was terrible in Vancouver 2010 and i believe the bigger ice will be more of a problem for him. Id prefer to see him moved aside. Ward is my dark horse.

If healthy i like Ward and Price the best for the big ice.
I also think Ward is the wildcard. I think he'll have an excellent bounce back season.
If so, he'll be on the team.

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Old
08-30-2013, 02:24 PM
  #35
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Woe Canada!

How low has Canadian goaltending fallen if Dubbie is in the conversation. At the beginning of the summer we were all talking about the Oilers either trading for a starter or finding someone with an upside to challenge him for the starters job. Has a couple of months of hot weather made everyone delirious? If Dubbie makes Team Canada, that's a crappy team and will lose in the first round to Ethiopia (if they were actually there).
However, I think Team Canada is one of the better teams, so no.... Dubbie won't be there.

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Old
08-30-2013, 02:41 PM
  #36
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Dubby needs to have four great years if he wants to make the next team in 2018.

Forget 2014.

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08-30-2013, 03:52 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perfect_Drug View Post
I think this Team Canada won't medal based on poor blue line and poor goalie.
I think the Oilers won't make the playoffs based on poor blue line and poor goalie.

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Old
09-04-2013, 01:27 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by s7ark View Post
If he has a GAA under 2 and a SV% over .935 then he might, just might get a shot at the 3rd spot. Actually, even with those numbers it doesn't sound likely. Maybe under 1.75 and over .940.

So yeah, no chance.
Dubnyk with Canada last year.
1.00 GA .940 SV%

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Old
09-04-2013, 01:52 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aki View Post
I think the Oilers won't make the playoffs based on poor blue line and poor goalie.
.914-.916 SV%is average in the NHL.

Last 3 years of starting:
DD
10-11 .916
11-12 .914
12-13 .920

fluery
10-11 .918
11-12 .913
12-13 .916

Crawford
10-11 .917
11-12 .903
12-13 .926

Price
10-11 .923
11-12 .916
12-13 .905

luongo
10-11 .928
11-12 .919
12-13 .907

Smith
10-11 .899
11-12 .930
12-13 .910

holtby
10-11 .934
11-12 .922
12-13 .920

Riemer
10-11 .921
11-12 .900
12-13 .924

ward
10-11 .923
11-12 .915
12-13 .908

Of all these goalies, only two have sv% average or better for all three years.
Which means they are the only goalies not to be below average in one of the seasons.
DD, Holtby.

All the rest are not consistent enough to be average at the minimum.

For all the people not considering dubnyk?
Do you even Know the game?

the are people out there who will list wins. 50% goals for 50%goals against.
There are people who will list GA. 50% shots given up, 50% save %
So a goalie influences. 25% of wins and 50% of GA.
They influence 100% of shots faced. Save%

They do not want to consider an above average goalie playing on the worst team in the league the first 2 years and 7th worst in the league.

I listed what he gets when he plays with a good team.
I would gladly take his 1.00GA and .940 Save% @ the Olympics.


Last edited by oilerbear: 09-04-2013 at 02:02 AM.
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Old
09-04-2013, 07:06 AM
  #40
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I think Dubnyk would only be considered if he had insane numbers and all the goalies invited to the summer camp were injured and/or laid an egg during the first 3 months of the season.

Hockey Canada seems to need a body of work before they invite you (except for a young rookie or two - for exposure reasons). He looked good playing in the WC for a couple of games last year, but it's not much of a body of work.

I think that he's so off the radar that it would take a pretty incredible first 3 months of the season.

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09-04-2013, 09:45 AM
  #41
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It would be a longshot. Lou, Price, Ward, Smith, Crawford are all probably way ahead of him at this point. He would need to outplay at least three guys by a significant margin, and would still likely be snubbed due to those guys having past successes.

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09-04-2013, 10:12 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ManofSteel55 View Post
It would be a longshot. Lou, Price, Ward, Smith, Crawford are all probably way ahead of him at this point. He would need to outplay at least three guys by a significant margin, and would still likely be snubbed due to those guys having past successes.
I would say Luongo and Crawford unless they have terrible seasons are a lock. The third spot should go to the goalie with the best season with a tie break going to playoff experience (winning pedigree) and then to participation with Canada previously.

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09-04-2013, 11:23 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlowlyOilersfan View Post
Dubby needs to have four great years if he wants to make the next team in 2018.

Forget 2014.
Goalies are one thing you want to ride hot into the Olympics though. Miller was at the peak of his game and was pretty much the reason that team got silver rather than nothing at all. I think if Dubynk is playing lights out on a team like this with a very average defense, he has to get consideration.

He'll get more than just a little consideration if Luongo and Price are struggling by the break.

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09-04-2013, 01:33 PM
  #44
skorf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrOiler View Post
I think Dubnyk would only be considered if he had insane numbers and all the goalies invited to the summer camp were injured and/or laid an egg during the first 3 months of the season.

Hockey Canada seems to need a body of work before they invite you (except for a young rookie or two - for exposure reasons). He looked good playing in the WC for a couple of games last year, but it's not much of a body of work.

I think that he's so off the radar that it would take a pretty incredible first 3 months of the season.
Bergeron played his way onto the 2010 team without a summer camp invite. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for Dubnyk to do it.

And really right now Canada's #1 goalie if most people were asked would be Loungo.... America's #5 goalie most people would say is Schneider (Quick, Anderson, Howard, Miller). There #5 beat out our #1.

I think most people agree that Dubnyk is in the 11-20 range for goalie depth in the NHL.... how many Canadians would be in the 1-10 range? maybe zero.
Sure there's a lot of Canadians likely in that 11-20 range but a strong showing he will move up....
Niemi and Bobrovsky are likely considered in the top 10 goalies right now and last year they'd have started on the outside of the top 20...
if Dubnyk puts up numbers near the top of the league, he'll be considered a top 10 goalie... and like above, Canada may not have a top 10 goalie in the NHL right now so he'd most likely be a lock for the team then...
and even if he improves on his numbers from last year, there's a solid chance he can still make it since Canada doesn't have the depth that US or Finland have.

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09-04-2013, 08:00 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
I would gladly take his 1.00GA and .940 Save% @ the Olympics.
Olympic Caliber > Spengler Cup Caliber

If he can't get a 1.00 and a .940% save percentage in the NHL. There is no way he is getting it playing against Russia, Sweden, USA etc (the teams that matter)

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Old
09-04-2013, 08:34 PM
  #46
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I would say Luongo and Crawford unless they have terrible seasons are a lock. The third spot should go to the goalie with the best season with a tie break going to playoff experience (winning pedigree) and then to participation with Canada previously.
disagree. I think Ward will be in before Crawford

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09-04-2013, 08:35 PM
  #47
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Maybe he could back stop the sledge hockey team

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Old
09-06-2013, 04:28 PM
  #48
Pressure
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Once again, reading through the pages and you can see how much free time the Pro-Dubnyk supporters have and how adamant they are that he is a top level goalie by posting his save percentage. Then look at how bi polar the opinions are of him. It's a wonder how he's even our starting goalie when everyone knew we were pursuing a starting goalie much less in the running for a position on the Olympic team.

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09-06-2013, 04:58 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skorf View Post
Bergeron played his way onto the 2010 team without a summer camp invite. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for Dubnyk to do it.

And really right now Canada's #1 goalie if most people were asked would be Loungo.... America's #5 goalie most people would say is Schneider (Quick, Anderson, Howard, Miller). There #5 beat out our #1.

I think most people agree that Dubnyk is in the 11-20 range for goalie depth in the NHL.... how many Canadians would be in the 1-10 range? maybe zero.
Sure there's a lot of Canadians likely in that 11-20 range but a strong showing he will move up....
Niemi and Bobrovsky are likely considered in the top 10 goalies right now and last year they'd have started on the outside of the top 20...
if Dubnyk puts up numbers near the top of the league, he'll be considered a top 10 goalie... and like above, Canada may not have a top 10 goalie in the NHL right now so he'd most likely be a lock for the team then...
and even if he improves on his numbers from last year, there's a solid chance he can still make it since Canada doesn't have the depth that US or Finland have.
Great post

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Old
09-06-2013, 05:00 PM
  #50
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yes if they win all of their games before january.

literally all of them.

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